Don't feel like discussing this bummer of a week. Instead, I'm going to roll out the current win expectancy contribution numbers and conclude with a quick discussion of the all-time great seasons since 1957. Yes, Retrosheet is in the house.
(What is win expectancy contributed? Also, search the archives for Winexp.)
This Year in Winexp
This Week
A's MLB
Name WXC Plays
Frank Thomas 0.471 28 PIT Jason Bay 1.188 34
Barry Zito* 0.424 60 CHW Rob Mackowiak 0.912 17
Joe Blanton* 0.241 25 ATL Marcus Giles 0.858 32
Chad Gaudin* 0.211 5 PIT Oliver Perez* 0.853 58
Mark Kotsay 0.138 36 DET Cur Granderson 0.836 33
Eric Chavez 0.098 32 ARI Brandon Webb* 0.809 32
Brad Halsey* 0.089 26 PHI Ryan Howard 0.721 26
Nick Swisher 0.053 32 ANA Vladi Guerrero 0.682 28
Santi Casilla* -0.020 7 MIL Prince Fielder 0.676 28
Kiko Calero* -0.055 15 HOU Preston Wilson 0.657 35
Antonio Perez -0.090 5 BAL Chris Ray* 0.644 17
Dan Haren* -0.095 29 DET Craig Monroe 0.642 26
Bobby Kielty -0.128 16 MIL Rickie Weeks 0.634 31
Jay Payton -0.129 20 CHW Bobby Jenks* 0.611 18
Jason Kendall -0.142 28 CIN Javier Valentin 0.605 6
Marco Scutaro -0.154 7 PHI Ryan Madson* 0.592 57
Adam Melhuse -0.169 5 BOS Manny Ramirez 0.592 24
Dan Johnson -0.207 19 PHI Pat Burrell 0.589 27
Steve Karsay* -0.207 15 FLA Mike Jacobs 0.588 26
Randy Keisler* -0.224 14 ATL Kenny Ray* 0.549 18
Bobby Crosby -0.286 31 NYM Jose B. Reyes 0.532 36
Mark Ellis -0.337 23 DET Jus Verlander* 0.523 59
Ron J. Flores* -0.354 8 NYM Darren Oliver* 0.516 16
Kirk Saarloos* -0.455 61 KC Andrew Sisco* 0.511 11
Huston Street* -0.490 14 TOR Roy Halladay* 0.507 29
BAL Rodrigo Lopez* 0.502 25
PHI Chase Utley 0.473 36
OAK Frank Thomas 0.471 28
All Year
A's MLB
Nick Swisher 1.937 212 STL Albert Pujols 4.309 218
Barry Zito* 1.357 290 ARI Brandon Webb* 2.364 327
Eric Chavez 1.104 190 NYY Derek Jeter 2.293 230
Dan Haren* 0.789 298 CHW JA. Contreras* 2.148 230
Joe Kennedy* 0.635 61 NYM Tom Glavine* 1.959 294
Mark Kotsay 0.388 213 OAK Nick Swisher 1.937 212
Milton Bradley 0.332 85 PIT Jason Bay 1.909 231
J Duchscherer* 0.224 74 CIN Todd Coffey* 1.905 121
Kiko Calero* 0.140 89 BAL Chris Ray* 1.829 93
Brad Halsey* 0.094 181 TB Ty Wigginton 1.728 196
Rich Harden* 0.037 123 BOS Manny Ramirez 1.713 201
Jay Witasick* 0.004 24 NYY Jorge Posada 1.699 147
Santi Casilla* -0.020 11 STL Chr Carpenter* 1.672 279
Matt Roney* -0.063 13 NYM Duaner Sanchez* 1.633 129
Chad Gaudin* -0.123 72 PHI Ryan Howard 1.575 197
Randy Keisler* -0.162 31 BOS David Ortiz 1.570 216
Steve Karsay* -0.289 29 BAL Melvin Mora 1.551 228
Ron J. Flores* -0.370 31 NYM Carlos Delgado 1.551 218
Joe Blanton* -0.398 264 CHW Paul Konerko 1.541 217
Frank Thomas -0.427 167 FLA Mig M. Cabrera 1.530 213
Marco Scutaro -0.434 78 SF Barry Bonds 1.521 166
Antonio Perez -0.451 37 MIL Carlos N. Lee 1.509 220
Bobby Kielty -0.462 66 COL Matt Holliday 1.498 206
Jay Payton -0.504 157 TOR B.J. Ryan* 1.487 94
Dan Johnson -0.511 145 LA J.D. Drew 1.472 194
Huston Street* -0.545 77 CHW Pablo Ozuna 1.444 66
Bobby Crosby -0.569 181 COL Brad Hawpe 1.439 203
Kirk Saarloos* -0.572 202 PHI Chase Utley 1.438 227
Adam Melhuse -0.659 62 BOS Jona Papelbon* 1.435 95
Mark Ellis -0.812 180 CLE C.C. Sabathia* 1.431 160
Esteban Loaiza* -0.968 95 PHI Aaron Rowand 1.422 145
Jason Kendall -1.379 159 HOU Morgan Ensberg 1.409 224
CIN Ken Griffey Jr. 1.367 109
MIL Geoff Jenkins 1.357 218
OAK Barry Zito* 1.357 290
We welcome Frank Thomas to the land of positive contributions this week, and hail Zito and Haren for hanging in there. It isn't a surprise that Crosby is drifting ever more negative, and Kendall has quietly passed Loaiza in the unhappy race for team anchor (and not a good kind of anchor). But I hadn't quite realized Ellis was having such a bad time of it. It will be too depressing to look at his numbers, so I won't.
On the league level, I note that Pujols 5.0 continues to devour all in his path, like an unstoppable horde of Amazonian ants, all with five tools. A trio of outstanding starters (Webb, Contreras and Glavine) are gaining some ground.
Who?
Chris Ray becomes this week's highest ranked player I've never heard of. The last two, Todd Coffey and Duaner Sanchez were unfairly unreported set-up men who were lights-out all year in tough situations. Ray is a rookie closer who's already racked up a record of 1-0, SV 13, ERA 2.53, WHIP 1.13, 12 BB, 22 K. Obviously the issue is my ignorance as opposed to lack of media coverage, which I'm sure he's getting.
1957-2005
Baby Winexp recently gained the ability to parse Retrosheet data. That means that suddenly Baby W can now analyze every game since 1957. There are certainly still some bugs left, so don't operate any heavy machinery with these results, but they seem plausible to me so far. Here are the greatest individual hitting or pitching seasons since 1957 according to Baby W.
1980-2005 1957-1979
2004 SFN Bonds 13.153 627 1968 STL Gibson* 13.196 1176
1985 NYN Gooden* 11.968 1104 1972 CLE Perry* 11.994 1370
2001 SFN Bonds 11.236 676 1965 LAN Koufax* 11.756 1310
2002 SFN Bonds 10.071 624 1963 LAN Koufax* 11.455 1215
1998 STL McGwire 9.919 679 1972 PHI Carlton* 11.382 1391
2000 COL Helton 9.762 687 1964 LAA Chance* 11.049 1103
1988 LAN Hershiser* 9.578 1082 1968 CLE Tiant* 10.451 991
2005 BOS Ortiz 8.923 711 1966 LAN Koufax* 10.282 1289
1995 ATL Maddux* 8.455 827 1966 SFN Marichal* 10.189 1183
1985 STL Tudor* 8.370 1076 1969 STL Gibson* 9.886 1296
1990 BOS Clemens* 8.315 944 1963 SFN Marichal* 9.660 1282
1984 DET Hernandez* 8.303 546 1963 MIL Spahn* 9.414 1037
1995 SFN Bonds 8.078 672 1963 CHI Ellsworth* 9.396 1140
1995 SEA E. Martinez 7.895 645 1968 DET McLain* 9.378 1306
1980 OAK Norris* 7.879 1154 1971 OAK Blue* 9.146 1223
1982 HOU Niekro* 7.696 1135 1972 OAK Hunter* 9.136 1161
2003 SFN Bonds 7.682 553 1968 NYN Seaver* 9.104 1120
1980 PHI Carlton* 7.631 1262 1976 CAL Tanana* 8.801 1188
2001 OAK Jason Giambi 7.405 674 1969 SFN McCovey 8.750 621
1992 CHI Maddux* 7.362 1095 1972 NYN Mcgraw* 8.750 427
1989 KCA Saberhagen* 7.351 1032 1976 OAK Blue* 8.719 1236
1982 MON Rogers* 7.242 1143 1969 DET McLain* 8.664 1319
I note that Pujols 5.0 has a 4.309 through about a third of the season. If he continues his unreal pace, he'd end up with about a 12.9, which would be up there with Bonds (2004) and Bob Gibson (1968) for the best seasons of the past 50 years.
I don't have time right now to discuss these lists, but I do want to briefly note how many of the second list performances come from the late 1960s, which history-savvy fans will note was so dominated by pitching that they lowered the mound in 1969. In fact, the numbers for before 1979 will need to be recalculated since the win expectancies are calculated from historical data since 1979. But it's still interesting to look at the numbers.
Also, I was really pleased to see my childhood hero, Steve Rogers, checking in at #22 since 1980. He played for some terrible teams and some excellent teams, was always overshadowed by Steve Carlton, and only Expos fans and real baseball geeks know who he was. I was afraid that Baby W would think he was a complete zero, but he actually acquits himself as an excellent pitcher (though not a HoF candidate).
And now for just the A's.
1980-2005 1957-1979
1980 OAK Norris* 7.879 1154 1971 OAK Blue* 9.146 1223
2001 OAK Jason Giambi 7.405 674 1972 OAK Hunter* 9.136 1161
2000 OAK Jason Giambi 6.946 661 1976 OAK Blue* 8.719 1236
1996 OAK McGwire 6.600 553 1971 OAK Hunter* 6.504 1122
1990 OAK Stewart* 5.603 1112 1968 OAK Nash* 5.977 929
1995 OAK McGwire 5.476 419 1970 OAK Grant* 5.682 489
1992 OAK R. Henderson 5.344 552 1974 OAK Hunter* 5.350 1266
1981 OAK McCatty* 5.236 752 1973 OAK Holtzman* 5.229 1217
1988 OAK Canseco 5.092 747 1976 OAK Torrez* 5.216 1113
1990 OAK R. Henderson 5.000 666 1968 OAK Odom* 5.079 1001
1991 OAK Canseco 4.954 687 1975 OAK Blue* 4.766 1174
1989 OAK Moore* 4.696 989 1972 OAK Holtzman* 4.680 1061
1990 OAK Eckersley* 4.608 267 1968 OAK Dobson* 4.369 948
2003 OAK Hudson* 4.386 972 1969 OAK Jackson 4.337 692
2002 OAK Tejada 4.359 721 1971 OAK Fingers* 4.225 506
1980 OAK Keough* 4.260 1081 1973 OAK Fingers* 4.175 534
1992 OAK Eckersley* 4.192 330 1973 OAK Hunter* 4.141 1055
1990 OAK Welch* 4.154 996 1972 OAK Odom* 4.070 827
1991 OAK Moore* 3.886 925 1973 OAK Blue* 4.037 1111
2002 OAK Hudson* 3.873 984 1969 OAK Odom* 3.848 995
1997 OAK Giambi 3.815 588 1975 OAK Fingers* 3.767 520
2005 OAK Street* 3.803 327 1974 OAK Blue* 3.714 1167
2002 OAK Zito* 3.795 950 1968 OAK Hunter* 3.590 974
1984 OAK Henderson 3.786 676 1969 OAK Bando 3.569 724
1982 OAK Henderson 3.716 820 1970 OAK Bando 3.561 657
1987 OAK McGwire 3.713 636 1975 OAK Lindblad* 3.424 516
1993 OAK R. Henderson 3.605 440 1974 OAK Holtzman* 3.332 1086
1990 OAK Honeycutt* 3.530 259 1975 OAK Todd* 3.236 496
1998 OAK Grieve 3.505 666 1968 OAK Krausse* 3.199 766
1983 OAK Henderson 3.497 727 1973 OAK Jackson 2.957 648
2002 OAK Mulder* 3.496 862 1974 OAK Jackson 2.940 627
2004 OAK Durazo 3.486 582 1972 OAK Fingers* 2.838 449
2001 OAK Chavez 3.472 600 1975 OAK Holtzman* 2.780 1123
1985 OAK Ontiveros* 3.471 285 1978 OAK Langford* 2.779 744
1998 OAK Stairs 3.438 588 1972 OAK Blue* 2.737 617
1995 OAK Henderson 3.380 524 1972 OAK Knowles* 2.624 276
2001 OAK Mulder* 3.338 935 1973 OAK Tenace 2.580 630
1989 OAK Stewart* 3.325 1103 1975 OAK Tenace 2.564 634
2004 OAK Chavez 3.293 584 1974 OAK Bando 2.498 602