FanPost

Winexp 5-21-06: Showdowns Ahead

It was a grrreat week up in the the top of the 10th yesterday. I refuse to acknowledge the rest happened.

This Week

A's This Week                   MLB This Week          

Dan Haren*      0.566   28      NYY     Jorge Posada    1.152   17
Jay Payton      0.491   22      MIL     Geoff Jenkins   1.131   24
Mark Kotsay     0.455   26      STL     Mark Mulder*    1.112   54
Barry Zito*     0.161   27      ATL     Andruw Jones    0.833   30
Huston Street*  0.144   8       TB      Russell Branyan 0.765   5
Kirk Saarloos*  0.144   28      CIN     Ken Griffey Jr. 0.731   28
Bobby Crosby    0.102   23      STL     Scott Rolen     0.705   26
Randy Keisler*  0.066   9       CLE     Grady Sizemore  0.703   30
Brad Halsey*    0.048   27      ARI     Shawn Green     0.658   27
Dan Johnson     0.047   14      ATL     Tim Hudson*     0.648   65
Eric Chavez     0.024   25      ATL     Matt Diaz       0.625   11
Adam Melhuse    0.006   12      ATL     Brian McCann    0.621   22
Santi Casilla*  0.000   4       TB      Scott Kazmir*   0.618   61
Antonio Perez   0.000   2       NYM     David Wright    0.614   25
Ron J. Flores*  -0.002  7       FLA     Mike Jacobs     0.602   26
Chad Gaudin*    -0.033  20      DET     Jus Verlander*  0.578   30
Steve Karsay*   -0.082  14      OAK     Dan Haren*      0.566   28
Bobby Kielty    -0.083  8       FLA     Josh Johnson*   0.545   54
Marco Scutaro   -0.099  9       TEX     Kevin Millwood* 0.538   54
Joe Blanton*    -0.105  45      CLE     Travis Hafner   0.522   26
Mark Ellis      -0.158  19      ATL     Chipper Jones   0.519   35
Frank Thomas    -0.159  16      ARI     Eric Byrnes     0.507   23
Nick Swisher    -0.206  26      BOS     David Ortiz     0.499   23
Kiko Calero*    -0.253  15      LA      No Garciaparra  0.498   26
Jason Kendall   -0.517  22      ARI     Craig Counsell  0.495   33
                                TEX     B B. Wilkerson  0.493   30
                                OAK     Jay Payton      0.491   22

This week, we appreciate the fantastic job Haren did in beating his fellow Wave, the clutch hit of JayPay (for nought), and the all-around excellent play of Sienna Kotsay's dad.  We celebrate the sturdy work of Keisler, Gaudin and Karsay who kept us in games without much expectation or fanfare. Dan Johnson continues his steady improvement to okay, up from terrible. Kendall has been steadily sucking the life out of the A's this year, but his results this week were particularly dismal due to one unlucky play:

May 20, 2006. Bot 9.1. R: 0. B:13. P: Armando Benitez. Jason Kendall lined into double play third, Crosby out at third (0.517, -0.314)

If you don't remember it, don't bother. It will only hurt you.

The Year So Far
                                                 
A's Year To Date                MLB Year To Date            

Nick Swisher    1.884   180     STL Albert Pujols   4.256   189
Eric Chavez     1.006   158     CIN Todd Coffey*    1.994   109
Barry Zito*     0.933   230     OAK Nick Swisher    1.884   180
Dan Haren*      0.884   269     NYY Jorge Posada    1.854   139
Joe Kennedy*    0.635   61      CHW JA. Contreras*  1.810   205
Milton Bradley  0.332   85      COL Brad Hawpe      1.765   179
Mark Kotsay     0.250   177     TB  Jonny J. Gomes  1.749   189
J Duchscherer*  0.224   74      NYY Jason Giambi    1.691   168
Kiko Calero*    0.195   74      STL Chr Carpenter*  1.672   279
Randy Keisler*  0.062   17      NYY Derek Jeter     1.636   195
Rich Harden*    0.037   123     NYM Carlos Delgado  1.596   190
Brad Halsey*    0.005   155     NYM Tom Glavine*    1.576   236
Jay Witasick*   0.004   24      CHW Paul Konerko    1.555   189
Santi Casilla*  0.000   4       ARI Brandon Webb*   1.555   295
Ron J. Flores*  -0.016  23      STL Mark Mulder*    1.478   272
Huston Street*  -0.055  63      SF  Barry Bonds     1.477   146
Matt Roney*     -0.063  13      NYM Duaner Sanchez* 1.476   106
Steve Karsay*   -0.082  14      CHW Jim Thome       1.471   186
Kirk Saarloos*  -0.117  141     PHI Aaron Rowand    1.434   137
Marco Scutaro   -0.280  71      COL Todd Helton     1.432   138
Bobby Crosby    -0.283  150     BOS David Ortiz     1.417   182
Dan Johnson     -0.304  126     LA  J.D. Drew       1.401   173
Bobby Kielty    -0.334  50      COL Matt Holliday   1.371   186
Chad Gaudin*    -0.334  67      PHI Bobby Abreu     1.367   186
Antonio Perez   -0.361  32      ATL Tim Hudson*     1.355   284
Jay Payton      -0.375  137     TB  Scott Kazmir*   1.330   278
Mark Ellis      -0.475  157     BOS Jona Papelbon*  1.317   81
Adam Melhuse    -0.490  57      TB  Ty Wigginton    1.308   168
Joe Blanton*    -0.639  239     ATL Andruw Jones    1.301   186
Frank Thomas    -0.898  139     ATL Chipper Jones   1.264   142
Esteban Loaiza* -0.968  95      CIN Bronson Arroyo* 1.260   260
Jason Kendall   -1.237  131     HOU Morgan Ensberg  1.259   184

Kendall has actually passed Loaiza in the race for "most damaging Athletic of the year". This is probably due to Loaiza not having played in a month.

Our boy Nick continues to have the best year in the majors besides Todd Coffey, who is exactly the kind of brilliant anonymous set-up guy (26.2 IP, 0.70 ERA, no Blown SV) that Baby W looooves, and Pujols 5.0 who continues to play suspiciously like a cyborg from the future earning money in the big leagues while searching for Sarah Connor.  Bonds has continued to steadily climb up the rankings. It's amazing that most people (including me) have this perception that Bonds absolutely sucks this year, but in reality, he's still one of the more productive players in the league. He just happens to be playing at a normal human levels as opposed to arcade game levels.

The Week Ahead
                           
Texas Year To Date              White Sox Year To Date          

B B. Wilkerson  1.147   176     CHW JA. Contreras*  1.810   205
Kevin Millwood* 1.098   258     CHW Paul Konerko    1.555   189
Kevin Mench     1.016   155     CHW Jim Thome       1.471   186
Mark DeRosa     0.800   77      CHW Pablo Ozuna     1.215   55
Hank Blalock    0.784   179     CHW Jermaine Dye    0.913   130
G Matthews Jr.  0.732   153     CHW Joe Crede       0.873   163
Michael Young   0.604   205     CHW Mark Buehrle*   0.599   256
Ant Alfonseca*  0.437   68      CHW Tadahito Iguchi 0.534   183
Ian Kinsler     0.378   27      CHW Fr An. Garcia*  0.500   249
Rick Bauer*     0.312   103     CHW Bobby Jenks*    0.473   79
Mark Teixeira   0.305   197     CHW Chris Widger    0.437   41
John Koronka*   0.289   238     CHW Bran McCarthy*  0.153   99
Ron Mahay*      0.255   45      CHW Scott Podsednik 0.149   194
Jo Rheinecker*  0.058   21      CHW A.J. Pierzynski 0.029   141
Vicen Padilla*  0.051   229     CHW Neal Cotts*     0.013   82
Fabio Castro*   0.043   24      CHW Matt Thornton*  -0.002  58
Kev Millwood**  0.013   4       CHW Agust Montero*  -0.009  12
Adam Hyzdu      -0.031  5       CHW Javier Vazquez* -0.069  213
John Koronka**  -0.043  2       CHW Br N. Anderson  -0.127  117
Robin Tejeda**  -0.060  2       CHW Alex Cintron    -0.228  67
Drew Meyer      -0.079  14      CHW Ross Gload      -0.303  26
Scott Feldman*  -0.117  39      CHW Charlie Haeger* -0.343  26
Jimenez         -0.141  65      CHW Juan Uribe      -0.499  138
Akinori Otsuka* -0.192  69      CHW Cliff Politte*  -0.505  69
Phil Nevin      -0.197  176     CHW Jon Garland*    -0.522  224
Robins Tejeda*  -0.220  65      CHW Rob Mackowiak   -0.538  93
Rod Barajas     -0.227  124     CHW Boone Logan*    -0.617  65
Gerald Laird    -0.247  51                  
Kameron Loe*    -0.271  221                
Brian Shouse*   -0.347  19                  
R.A. Dickey*    -0.396  19                  
Laynce Nix      -0.451  35                  
Adrian Brown    -0.749  46                  
Joaquin Benoit* -0.945  82                  
C.J. Wilson*    -1.026  68                  
Franc Cordero*  -1.129  94                  

This is a tough week, but there is reason for hope.

As for the White Sox, we face Garland (deemed poor by Baby W) and Vasquez (deemed average) and Buehrle (good) and miss Contreras (awesome). This is good luck. And for some reason, the A's tend to play better against the ChiSox.

Why hasn't Texas blown ahead of everybody else?  We must thank the three-headed beast of Benoit/Wilson/Cordero who have saved our butts by blowing a small boatload of saves and holds.  If we can hang with their explosive offense and surprisingly competent starters, we should feel good about facing their bullpen.

p.s. So far this year:


B B. Wilkerson   1.147   176
Alfonso Soriano  0.476   206

Without doing closer analysis, I don't know why Baby W loves Wilkerson so much, since Soriano's numbers (.901 OPS) appear to be better than BW's (.818). It is likely that either Wilkerson had one or two huge game-winners, or overall his numbers in close games are better.

Technical Note. Baby W has been quietly upgraded to use historical data from 1979-2004, except for 1999.

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