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Winexp 4: Soggy Week in Review

An awful week that looked okay in the box score, but not on the DL. And I don't mean On The DL.

Here's the week from Baby Winexp's point of view.

A's Player Contributions, This Week       Year To Date          
Nick Swisher    0.714   26                  Nick Swisher    1.818   95  
Dan Johnson     0.698   22                  Eric Chavez     1.443   97  
J Duchscherer*  0.396   10                  Joe Kennedy*    0.697   44  
Mark Ellis      0.295   19                  J Duchscherer*  0.473   57  
Dan Haren*      0.231   36                  Milton Bradley  0.286   85  
Joe Kennedy*    0.121   15                  Brad Halsey*    0.244   51  
Kirk Saarloos*  0.119   13                  Kiko Calero*    0.192   40  
Brad Halsey*    0.112   15                  Kirk Saarloos*  0.183   64  
Jay Payton      0.08    18                  Marco Scutaro   0.14    38  
Marco Scutaro   0.046   3                   Jay Witasick*   -0.001  25  
Frank Thomas    0.04    23                  Rich Harden*    -0.029  123
Bobby Crosby    0.015   21                  Bobby Kielty    -0.03   4  
Eric Chavez     0.002   24                  Dan Haren*      -0.107  149
Joe Blanton*    -0.013  53                  Dan Johnson     -0.121  72  
Rich Harden*    -0.018  14                  Antonio Perez   -0.131  18  
Antonio Perez   -0.02   6                   Mark Ellis      -0.232  84  
Mark Kotsay     -0.091  26                  Mark Kotsay     -0.239  100
Kiko Calero*    -0.105  13                  Joe Blanton*    -0.255  134
Milton Bradley  -0.147  7                   Bobby Crosby    -0.334  69  
Barry Zito*     -0.224  29                  Chad Gaudin*    -0.351  13  
Jason Kendall   -0.335  21                  Barry Zito*     -0.364  121
Chad Gaudin*    -0.351  13                  Frank Thomas    -0.374  86  
                                            Jay Payton      -0.454  63  
                                            Huston Street*  -0.457  34  
                                            Adam Melhuse    -0.617  17  
                                            Jason Kendall   -0.844  78  
                                            Esteban Loaiza* -0.991  95  

Mark Ellis came alive this week, as did Dan Johnson.  Jason Kendall slowly but surely sucked.  Loaiza, for the record, racked up about a -0.380 in his one inning of work yesterday, but I guess it doesn't officially count, so it's not in the standings. Gaudin was the goat on paper, but he was put in an unfairly tough position. The last time I felt Baby Winexp was this unfair to a new guy was when Bocachica-wow-wow late last year nearly missed a clutch grand slam and instead got dinged for blowing a high leverage at-bat.  And we know that Joe Kennedy's last "save" was a real masterpiece of horror even though he did get the job done in the end...

Winexp is a fascinating tool to analyze what happened, not what will happen. If you believe that clutch doesn't exist, then in the long run, win expectancy contributed should converge to some measure of a player's "true" ability.  But in the short term, there is a lot of volatility to win expectancy contributions.

In Nick Swisher's case, he has been a rock. He's chipped in important plays every week and has just been a joy to behold.  In fact, Baby Winexp considers him the most valuable carbon-based life-form in the entire MLB this season (excluding the cyborg PUJOLS V).

Top MLB Player Contributions, This Week   This Year To Date        

SF  Moises Alou     1.131   25              STL Albert Pujols   3.367   112
SF  Barry Bonds     0.845   18              OAK Nick Swisher    1.818   95
FLA Josh Willingham 0.78    25              TB  Jonny J. Gomes  1.738   109
CHC Matt Murton     0.741   22              NYY Derek Jeter     1.662   110
PHI Pat Burrell     0.726   30              NYM Duaner Sanchez* 1.648   61
TEX Kevin Millwood* 0.717   52              STL Chr Carpenter*  1.641   169
OAK Nick Swisher    0.714   26              NYY Jason Giambi    1.451   92
OAK Dan Johnson     0.698   22              OAK Eric Chavez     1.443   97
STL Albert Pujols   0.67    31              CHW Jim Thome       1.424   106
COL Jose Mesa*      0.66    20              COL Todd Helton     1.346   73
                                            ARI Brandon Webb*   1.338   176
                                            TB  Ty Wigginton    1.322   96
                                            CHW JA. Contreras*  1.256   147
                                            SF  Barry Bonds     1.252   75

Pujols has had far and away the best April in the last three years (all the data I have), dwarfing even Bonds, Steroids Edition.  I'm pretty sure it's one of the best Aprils in history, not just for output but for key placement of hits. Incredible guy. If only we'd drafted him instead of Prieto.

Best April Contributions, 2004-2006            

2006    STL     Albert Pujols   3.367   112
2004    SF      Barry Bonds     2.721   94
2005    ATL     Chipper Jones   2.374   84
2004    CIN     Adam Dunn       2.206   95
2004    CIN     Sean Casey      1.96    94
2006    OAK     Nick Swisher    1.818   95
2005    TEX     David Dellucci  1.755   80
2004    KC      Carlos Beltran  1.752   104
2006    TB      Jonny J. Gomes  1.738   109
2005    BAL     Brian Roberts   1.702   121

PS. For those of you who like win expectancy graphs, fangraphs.com now has a winexp graph for EVERY SINGLE MLB GAME this year. Wow.  Their calculations use the spreadsheet we've discussed before which uses models and not historical data like baby winexp does. But the relative rankings of players almost always turn out the same. The commentary isn't nearly as good as Nebraska's or JJJsixsix, but they try. For instance, here's The Save of Terror.

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