FanPost

Winexp 3: The Blah Week in Review & Melhuse

Well I picked a nice week to be off the grid... now I can experience all the blah in one batch, the news that Street and FragileBoCro are hurt and the generally crappy way we've been losing.

Here's the win expectancy news from Apr 16 - Apr 24.
 

First, to jog your memories (and fill mine), here are the biggest turning points of the week in A's games.

Apr 21, 2006 . ANA v OAK. Bot 7.1. R:-1. B:1. P: J.C. Romero. Eric Chavez homered to right, Scutaro scored (0.798, +0.459)
Apr 16, 2006 . TEX v OAK.  Top 9.2. R: 0. B:1. P: Huston Street. Brad B. Wilkerson doubled to deep left center, Brown scored (0.802, +0.397)
Apr 16, 2006 . TEX v OAK.  Top 9.0. R:-2. B:1. P: Huston Street. Mark Teixeira homered to right, Young scored (0.482, +0.362)
Apr 24, 2006 . OAK v TEX.  Top 6.2. R:-1. B:1. P: C.J. Wilson. Nick Swisher homered to left, Kotsay scored (0.610, +0.347)
Apr 16, 2006 . TEX v OAK. Bot 8.2. R: 0. B:12. P: Akinori Otsuka. Eric Chavez doubled to left, Kotsay and Swisher scored (0.950, +0.308)
Apr 20, 2006 . DET v OAK. Bot 9.1. R:-1. B:1. P: Fernando Rodney. Milton Bradley singled to right, Chavez to third (0.507, +0.300)
Apr 20, 2006 . DET v OAK. Bot 9.1. R:-1. B:123. P: Fernando Rodney. Jason Kendall reached on fielder's choice to third, Chavez out at home, Bradley to third, Swisher to second (0.263, -0.281)
Apr 20, 2006 . DET v OAK. Bot 9.2. R:-1. B:123. P: Fernando Rodney. Adam Melhuse struck out swinging (0.000, -0.263)
Apr 16, 2006 . TEX v OAK.  Top 8.2. R:-1. B:. P: Dan Haren. Jimenez homered to right (0.385, +0.261)
Apr 24, 2006 . OAK v TEX. Bot 6.1. R:-1. B:13. P: Joe Blanton. Rod Barajas grounded into double play shortstop to second to first, Wilkerson out at second (0.305, -0.227)

Looking over the highlights, I thought, hey this wasn't that bad a week, half these plays are good for the A's. Until I noticed that two of them were from today and two of them were cancelled out by other plays on the list. Blah.

This Week's A's
Name            WXC     Plays
----            ---     -----
Eric Chavez     +1.525  29  
Nick Swisher    +0.641  33  
Kiko Calero*    +0.381  12  
Barry Zito*     +0.291  27  
Dan Haren*      +0.233  60  
J Duchscherer*  +0.109  22  
Joe Kennedy*    +0.106  16  
Brad Halsey*    +0.094  12  
Rich Harden*    +0.038  31  
Kirk Saarloos*  +0.017  22  
Bobby Kielty    -0.030  4  
Bobby Crosby    -0.046  18  
Milton Bradley  -0.088  32  
Antonio Perez   -0.130  9  
Marco Scutaro   -0.172  11  
Mark Ellis      -0.178  29  
Esteban Loaiza* -0.190  43  
Jay Payton      -0.262  14  
Joe Blanton*    -0.308  55  
Mark Kotsay     -0.314  31  
Dan Johnson     -0.423  18  
Frank Thomas    -0.459  28  
Jason Kendall   -0.591  21  
Adam Melhuse    -0.641  9  
Huston Street*  -0.741  11  

This Week's Top MLB Players
STL Albert Pujols   1.785   33
OAK Eric Chavez     1.525   29
WAS Ryan Church     1.159   33
SF  Mark Sweeney    1.013   18
LA  J.D. Drew       0.968   32
PHI Ryan Howard     0.899   29
HOU Brad Ausmus     0.873   29
SF  Steve Finley    0.854   29
DET Mike Maroth*    0.818   50
CIN Ed Encarnacion  0.73    36
CHC Greg Maddux*    0.73    54
ATL Tim Hudson*     0.716   30

Obviously, Chavez is having a monster week. He contributed the most of every human this week, by a long shot (excluding the surely robotic Pujols). Swisher had a very good week (#18 in MLB) and we welcome Zito, Haren and Harden back to the world of positive contributions.

Spotlight On Melhuse

How the heck do you rack up -0.641 in only 9 at-bats and be considered more harmful to the A's than every other player besides Street with his spectacular collapse?

Melhuse was a big favorite of Baby Winexp last year. He came through in a number of crucial situations despite gathering bench splinters in his forgotten ass. In fact, Baby W considered him more valuable than Kendall last year despite his microscopic playing time. Why no love this week?


Apr 16, 2006. Bot 9.2. R:-2. B:1. P: Francisco Cordero. Adam Melhuse walked, Kendall to second (0.094, +0.058)
Apr 18, 2006. Bot 2.2. R:+1. B:. P: Justin Verlander. Adam Melhuse struck out swinging (0.656, -0.009)
Apr 18, 2006. Bot 4.2. R:+2. B:1. P: Justin Verlander. Adam Melhuse flied out to left (0.791, -0.024)
Apr 18, 2006. Bot 7.1. R:+1. B:. P: Justin Verlander. Adam Melhuse grounded out to shortstop (0.782, -0.016)
Apr 20, 2006. Bot 9.2. R:-1. B:123. P: Fernando Rodney. Adam Melhuse struck out swinging (0.000, -0.263)
Apr 23, 2006. Bot 2.2. R:-1. B:. P: Kelvim Escobar. Adam Melhuse struck out swinging (0.404, -0.005)
Apr 23, 2006. Bot 4.1. R:-2. B:123. P: Kelvim Escobar. Adam Melhuse grounded into double play second to shortstop to first, Bradley out at second (0.245, -0.218)
Apr 23, 2006. Bot 7.0. R:-1. B:. P: Kelvim Escobar. Adam Melhuse grounded out to second (0.302, -0.050)
Apr 23, 2006. Bot 9.2. R:-1. B:2. P: Francisco Rodriguez. Adam Melhuse struck out looking (0.000, -0.114)
 

It's sort of obvious when you list out the at-bats. Baby W's contempt stems from one huge rally-killing DP (4/23) and two pinch-hitting appearances where he struck out to make the last out with the tying run in scoring position.

I feel bad for the guy. He's a competent hitter and catcher who shows flashes of skill and has made a number of memorable contributions to last year's A's. But despite the religion around Scooter and Melhuse and their big hits, I still don't believe clutch has that much effect, and I'm not sure the way to use Melly is to use him as the uber-pinch-hitter and throw him into super-high-leverage situations. If Perez, for example, has better hitting numbers overall, then it might be better to use him instead of Melly.  Speaking of conventional wisdom superstition, there isn't a lot of evidence that catchers affect pitching performance. But it's hard to not think twice about how Loaiza is the only pitcher with Melly as his catcher and how he is stinking up the entire major leagues (#9 worst according to Baby W... see below).

This Year's A's
Eric Chavez     +1.618  78  
Nick Swisher    +1.360  74  
Joe Kennedy*    +0.606  33  
Kiko Calero*    +0.517  32  
J Duchscherer*  +0.316  50  
Milton Bradley  +0.244  83  
Marco Scutaro   +0.140  36  
Brad Halsey*    +0.132  36  
Kirk Saarloos*  +0.064  51  
Jay Witasick*   -0.001  25  
Rich Harden*    -0.011  109
Bobby Kielty    -0.030  4  
Antonio Perez   -0.112  15  
Barry Zito*     -0.140  92  
Joe Blanton*    -0.163  109
Mark Kotsay     -0.180  79  
Dan Haren*      -0.338  113
Bobby Crosby    -0.349  48  
Frank Thomas    -0.432  68  
Huston Street*  -0.457  34  
Mark Ellis      -0.532  69  
Jay Payton      -0.534  45  
Adam Melhuse    -0.617  17  
Jason Kendall   -0.663  61  
Dan Johnson     -0.954  54  
Esteban Loaiza* -0.991  95  

Top MLB Players This Year

STL Albert Pujols   2.854   85
OAK Eric Chavez     1.618   78
HOU Morgan Ensberg  1.461   81
TB  Jonny J. Gomes  1.406   84
NYY Derek Jeter     1.386   82
OAK Nick Swisher    1.36    74
COL Todd Helton     1.346   73
STL Chr Carpenter*  1.325   140
NYM Duaner Sanchez* 1.316   46
CHW Jim Thome       1.309   79
TB  Ty Wigginton    1.308   73

Bottom MLB Players This Year

OAK Dan Johnson     -0.954  54
STL Ju Encarnacion  -0.959  73
OAK Esteban Loaiza* -0.991  95
TB  Seth McClung*   -0.997  99
MIN Kyle Lohse*     -1.006  70
MIN Carlos Silva*   -1.013  125
TOR Josh Towers*    -1.013  100
SF  Tyler Walker*   -1.016  23
MIN Rondell White   -1.039  72
PIT Oliver Perez*   -1.052  126
KC  Andrew Sisco*   -1.241  32

What to make of a month where you have two of the hottest players in the league, and two of the coldest? Not too surprising you're hovering around .500.  But if the blahs start to really get you down, go look at the diaries from last year during the month that shall not be named which comes right before June.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.

Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker