Sunk Cost Kendall

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 3:31 PM PDT Comment 55 comments

The A's will die this year if they roll Kendall out there for another 600 plate appearances. He has lost all power and is a rapidly deteriorating CA on the backside of his career. His 50% percentile Pecota projection is a .670 OPS with an alarming 1% breakout rate, 16% improve rate and 43% collapse rate.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/kendaja01.php

This is only the start of the bad news. Kendall can not control the running game and hits into a ton of double plays. He is also on the books for $11 million this year and I think $7 million next year. He is the definition of a sunk cost, but one that will be very hard to swallow for low payroll team. Beane understands the business of baseball better than anyone, but seems to have very few options here. Jeremy Brown is off to a big start in Triple A and would at least provide the A's a bit of power from the CA spot. I don't think that Mellhouse is the answer as a full timer(I hate him as a pinch hitter...but that is another story) so my question is what the heck are the A's supposed to do?

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I'm sure

Beane would LOVE to get rid of Kendall at this point. But who would take him off our hands? The reason we got him to begin with is because we wanted to unload our own salary problems (Rhodes, Redman). Now, to get rid of him, we'd have to do the same ... except Kendall has turned out to be worse than Rhodes/Redman ...

by Crosbino on Apr 20, 2006 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Of Course

but my point is that there may be better internal options than Kendall for the 06 season in terms of generating wins. I hate seeing a poor defensive CA with no batting upside. At best you may get last year and there still may be some considerable slippage from that level.

Beane stuck with Hatte way too long and may due the same with Kendall. If he brought plus D I would be able to live with him a little more.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 3:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Melhuse or Brown

May be better options, but it's not happening. As a pinch hitter, Kendall is LESS valuable than he is to us as a regular player. Kendall makes far too much money for us to bench him or cut him or likely even trade him. We're stuck with the guy. So let's hope he can turn it around, hit around .280 with patience, and make himself SOMEWHAT useful.

By the way: the kiss of death for me was when those articles began to show up late last year that are continuing until today talking about how Kendall does the "little things" that don't show up in the scorecard. That made me nauseous. We're trying to make excuses for the guy for his godawful hitting/fielding.

Sure he's gutsy and he's got heart and shit, but if you replace Kendall's name with Darin Erstad in those articles, we'd all want to throw up.

by Crosbino on Apr 20, 2006 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still laughing over that last sentence!

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Apr 20, 2006 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he's not a poor defensive catcher ...

he's actually pretty good.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 20, 2006 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to throw this out there...

last September when the team needed to win the most, Kendall's average for the month was .324. I know that doesn't make up for what he has done at the plate.

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 3:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

True

but that was after a .195 August. I would hate to put too much weight on a hot September.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His last year with Pittsburgh he hit .319.

Can switching leagues make that much of a difference?

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

CAs

on the decline rarely reverse the trend.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are watching a catcher in decline

-- at least offensively. He caught many, many games in Pittsburgh and sustained major injuries. I think the Pirates got his best years and Beane got him at least a year too late.

by OaklandSi on Apr 20, 2006 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i've heard

that the strike zone in the AL is bigger than in the NL. anyone else hear that? could be a factor though plenty have players have switched leagues and done better.. maybe its particulary difficult for kendall based on his approach or something.. goes hand in hand with his comment that he "needs to start swinging more", cuz there are more strikes with a bigger zone

by NYC on Apr 21, 2006 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Needed to win the most?

If they'd won a half-dozen more games in April, those September games wouldn't have mattered. Fire all inhabitants of the Pacific Time Zone now!

"You can throw your cocks if I don't care!" - Iggy Pop

by AlamedaAphid on Apr 20, 2006 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But the A's didn't win a half dozen more

games in April, so those games in September DID matter

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what really matters

I don't buy the "September" argument. I wonder how many pitchers he faced that month on teams that were long since eliminated who were just late season minor league call ups, like in Seattle or Texas.

by Aaron C on Apr 20, 2006 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what the heck are the A's supposed to do?

Eat crow on this one. We did get Bradley and Thomas for a song though, so pretend the money is balanced between those three. That, and a shot of Blue Label always make me feel better.

"Using technology to clean up the mess made by technology doesn't seem too intelligent." ~George Carlin

by haren4prez on Apr 20, 2006 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We could start ...

by having reasonable expectations.

I mean, just a thought ...

He's caught 2 of the 5 guys who have attempted to steal off of him this year. That's a very good percentage. While he did have a poor percentage overall last year, that was built entirely from a very bad start. He was fine in the second half of the year.

By all accounts, he calls a great game and works well with the pitchers.

And, while he's far from good with the bat, for a catcher, he's also not bad.

Sure, he's overpaid - but we're much better off with Ken-Doll behind the dish than with Rhodes and Redman pissing people off and offering up eras in the 5 range.

Kendall is not a great player and he is badly overpaid - but if we stop expecting him to be something he's not: a star offensive contributer or a power hitter - we'd be pretty happy with what he is: a fine defensive catcher with an above average OBP.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 20, 2006 3:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You're right ... to a point

Yes, he's been better defensively, and he probably calls a good game, but his offense is far from "okay for a catcher."

His offense is putrid. Plain and simple. .250 with NO power? That's bad. Gregg Zaun is what I'd consider an average hitting catcher, and he's giving the Jays far more than Kendall is giving us.

But the fact remains that he's not going anywhere anytime soon.

by Crosbino on Apr 20, 2006 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His offense is above replacement level ...

He has a VORP of 0.3 on the young season ... it's certainly not good, it's not even average and I never said it was, but it's also not bad.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 20, 2006 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well ... okay

It's not "DJ Bad" but it's not good.

What's more troubling than how he happens to be doing right now is that after last year, when he was truly bad, many said that he would rebound this year, and he's showed no evidence of this happening.

It's like no progress has been made.

by Crosbino on Apr 20, 2006 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true ...

he certainly hasn't bounced back, thus far ...
but I would characterize he performance last year - early basestealing problems aside - similar to how I characterized his season thus far.

He's a catcher and a good one. He's not much of a hitter but Adam Melhuse isn't much of a catcher and Jeremy Brown isn't either ... and most teams, for good reason, are perfectly happy running out a not hit, quality backstop because, well, the position is just that important.

While I certainly mock pro-Erstad arguments based on his moxy and spleen-ORP I think it's different for Ken-Doll. Yes, because I'm a fan of his ... wait, no, that's not it - it's because he's a catcher and he's responsible for getting his pitchers to perform. For most players, any moxy, heart and spleen they possess should be reflected in their stats because, either they're doing it or their not. If your heart isn't causing you to do things to either score or prevent runs, no matter what Joe Morgan may say, it isn't helping your team win. But I believe that catchers do prevent runs in ways that aren't yet effectively measured and the Ken-Doll is just dripping with it. He knows how to slap the pitchers on the ass in that special way to get them to really stick it all out there.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 20, 2006 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this

wholeheartedly. The A's needed to get rid of Rhodes and Redman (who were both true clubhouse malcontents according to all reports) and Kendall had one big thing going for him coming in. OBP. His power had gone downhill, but that trade was really trading bad contracts for a bad contract. The A's needed a catcher and they have one.

Nico joked last year that opposing defenses should just play five infielders against him and it would probably work.

If he didn't work very well with the pitchers, we might see Melhuse much more. But having Kendall in there, the A's essentially are making themselves a National League team in the American League.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 20, 2006 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also

liked the deal at the time. With that being said there are high expectations for 06 and Kendall could be a major drag on this team. I disagree that he is a strong defensive CA.

My point is that if Brown is better than him right now he should be playing. It would be a very tricky thing to bench him, but it may come to this.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It might

but it's going to take a lot to get Kendall benched.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Apr 20, 2006 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The A's think

that Kendall is a strong defensive catcher. That's good enough for me.

Of course, if Brown is better than him, he should be playing. That's just a huge if. Brown did absolutely nothing in ST (.091/.167/.091 1:3 bb:k) and it took him three years at AA to hit the pitching there. He's also never been considered a good defensive catcher.

I'm sorry, but it's going to take a heck of a lot more than 25 good ABs to make me think he's ready for the show.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 20, 2006 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is fair

This post wasn't meant to imply that Brown was wasting away in Triple A. It basically pointed out that the A's are pretty much screwed at this position.

I would like Brown to put two good months together and then maybe he can play himself into the picture.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except that

NL teams don't let their pitchers swing the bat when they have a chance to ground into a DP.

by AsFanInLA on Apr 20, 2006 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just wish he could get back to his

2003-2004 stats. I was hoping that Gerald Perry would have some sort of impact on him by now

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For debate sake, Kendall's stats from last year:

April: .258/.333/.292/.625
May: .234/.314..298.612
June: .300/.394/.333/.728
July: .311/.373/.379/.752
August: .202/.268/.222/.496
September: .324/.389/.392/.782
October: .333/.400/.444/.844

So I would say that 4 out of the 7 months of the season, he did what I expected of him (minus about 3 homeruns)

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

True

When his average was down in the low .200's, even a .300 month or two did not placate us. If June/July/September were the first months of the season, and then he fell off the face of the earth in August/September, we'd likely feel better about him. But that's not what happened.

by Crosbino on Apr 20, 2006 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true Crosbino

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 4:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Month to Month

fluctuations are very tough to gain any insight from. They are completely random and not predictive in nature. Kendall's overall 05 while tacking on another year has dampened a chance for a rebound.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 4:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're being too hard on Kendall

He is actually quite good at grounding into double plays. You should at least give him some credit for that.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Apr 20, 2006 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and he's GREAT with the pitchers...

Please, let's none of us forget that.

by Aaron C on Apr 20, 2006 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he's GREAT with pitchers

Ours and theirs.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Apr 21, 2006 6:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Along with modifying expectations

I do think the A's (and Macha) need to put Kendall in a situation to succeed a little more. I think we're all aware that driving the ball is perhaps not Kendall's strong point and he's essentially an extreme ground ball hitter. There's essentially not really any place to put him without him being a threat to ground into a DP, put the runners in motion. Hit and run. And DON'T leave him in the game in a situation like that in the bottom of the 9th where you can almost be certain he'll hit a ground ball in the infield - exactly what you DON'T need!

by nycfan on Apr 20, 2006 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ken Doll just brings nothing . . .

to the table right now. Every time I read an article or sentence about how well he works with the young pitchers it makes me throw up in my mouth. Seriously. All catchers study film and no hitter tendencies. It's their job. Kendall has never been a good defensive catcher, ever. Period. He was a very good offensive catcher at one point. At one point, he was one of my favorite players. Heck, he was the runner up for the MVP one year. But not anymore. He's just plain horrible. I'd rather see just about anyone behind the plate, whether it's Brown, Melhuse, Suzuki, hell, even Powell at this point. They cannot be worse.

In the AL, you cannot have the equivalent of a pitcher batting in your lineup and expect to be a contender. You can't. Sorry. If Kendall gets 600 abs this year we are in trouble. Big trouble.

A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg

by RayRay59 on Apr 20, 2006 5:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

not to dispute your overall point, but ...

... there is at least one catcher who doesn't study film or bone up on hitters: AJ Pierzynski.

Those people aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, they're sucking it from a spigot! @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 20, 2006 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you are overacting a little RayRay

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 5:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I wish I were,

Kendall was statistically the worst regular in the AL offensively last year. And his defense was, generously, maybe average, but probably below. So, other than the working with the pitchers, company line, what does he bring? At this point, lets be honest, he's Erstad lite.

A kitten bats around a ball of yarn but what he's really saying is, "You know I can't knit, motherf'er." That is one foul mouthed kitten. - Mitch Hedberg

by RayRay59 on Apr 20, 2006 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like Erstad lite, put a smile on my face

by breedingewoks on Apr 20, 2006 5:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

DKNJ, this is OT, but ...

... I've always meant to ask: is your username a reference to the old Roz Chast cartoon?

Those people aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, they're sucking it from a spigot! @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 20, 2006 6:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No

It is nothing that clever. The moniker is actually my initials and my place of residence.

I am more in the RayRay camp. I like the unknown better than crappy known.

Also...Can Macha please let DJ try to work his way through this slump? He had great peripherals last year and is at the right age for a good season. At least give him until Memorial Day to work things out.

by DKNJ on Apr 20, 2006 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you re DJ

Unfortunately, as well as Swisher's been hitting, it's nearly impossible to knock him out of a starting role. And I think that Payton's irregular PT is likely messing with his plate performance as well.

And again, all things considered, I think Macha's been doing a great job managing the starting lineup day in and day out. With the breadth and depth of our roster this year, someone's going to get the short end of the stick -- for now, it's DJ and Perez.

Those people aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, they're sucking it from a spigot! @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 21, 2006 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish I could that little snippet on

a baseball or even Pittsburg blog that said something to the effect that "the A's will be sorry they ever did that deal" along with remark fortelling his sub-par hitting.

the great playoff miss of 2004 followed by the good try of 2005 But will 2006 do the trix?

by ak_A on Apr 20, 2006 8:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Suggestion on Kendall:

Put $5 million on second base and $5 million on the left-field warning track. Whatever he can hit with a throw or his bat, he can keep.

by Nico on Apr 20, 2006 8:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What if he throws his bat

and hits second base?

I can't remember what I was going to say, but I assure you, it was brilliant!

by oblique on Apr 20, 2006 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then he's on steroids

by Nico on Apr 20, 2006 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard this gem again

Picking up Kendall was the price the A's had to pay to get rid of Rhodes and Redman.

This is false.

You can always trade a major league arm. Always. Beane might not have gotten a top prospect in return, but do not tell me that he could not have traded a major league pitcher in this pitching starved market. The man is a genius afterall.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Apr 21, 2006 6:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agreed then and now

I don't believe that Beane could not have traded two reasonably serviceable leftie pitchers in any other deal, other than taking on Kendall. The truth is, Kendall is one of those players that Beane had wanted for several years -- and I can understand why from Kendall's career performance.

Problem is, Kendall had caught many, many games and sustained serious injuries that affected his hitting style (among other things, taking away his power). He was a prime candidate for beginning the catcher's decline.

by OaklandSi on Apr 21, 2006 6:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree 100%

In fact, before that offseason, I felt we'd give away Redman/Rhodes to a team like the Tigers, who had money to burn, for an iffy prospect.

Though I have to admit I had pretty high hopes for Kendall also...

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Apr 21, 2006 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I have many times ...

I disagree. There is not much of a market for pitchers with horrifically underwhelming stuff, a bad, multi-year contract, a subpar track record and a reputation for being a clubhouse cancer.

Remember what we traded to get him? And that was without any contractual commitments, coming off his career year. We traded Mike frickin' Neu for him - and at that point we were dumping salary in the exchange.

I also disagree with your premise. I think BB is satisified with Jason Kendall as his catcher and as a return for Redman/Rhodes.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 21, 2006 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but remember ...

... the Pirates almost immediately flipped Rhodes to the Indians (receiving >0 in exchange), where he performed OK in a setup role.

I think everyone in baseball knew Beane made a mistake trying to make Rhodes a closer (one of the few instances where I think that a player genuinely didn't have the mentality to succeed in the role), and they knew that he could still succeed in a setup role (even though his contract was at the time a bit heavy for a setup man).

Redman still puzzles me, but, sheesh, a LHSP? That's always worth something.

Those people aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, they're sucking it from a spigot! @('.')@

by monkeyball on Apr 21, 2006 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rhodes trade

The Pirates traded Rhodes for Matt Lawton, a below-average corner outfielder making close to $8 million. In other words, another bad contract, with a negative net value. (This year Lawton signed a deal with Seattle for $400K plus incentives). I thought at the time he might have been able to get positive value for Redman - an averagish pitcher making averagish money - but I don't think anyone wanted Rhodes and his contract.

The real problem was that it was a case of buying high and selling low, but it's not clear what the other options were. In addition to performing badly, both had seemed to not fit in well in Oakland. Rhodes pitched well for Cleveland, and I think Redman was pretty good in the first half of the year in Pittsburgh, but I don't know if that would have happened if they were still with the A's.

There is a limit to an intelligent person's enjoyment of the irony of being regarded as an imbecile by fools. And it is soon reached. -Wm. Gerhardie

by andeux on Apr 21, 2006 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't call Lawton

>0 at the money he was receiving. Below average corner outfielders with no upside aren't worth anywhere near $7m.

Check out the future Mrs. Devo's campaign ...

by devo on Apr 21, 2006 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope Beane is satisfied with Kendall

Because otherwise he's screwed. Moving a weak hitting, weak throwing 32 year old catcher who's owed $24 million dollars over the next two seasons AND carrying a total NTC is a little tough to accomplish. I feel a rant coming.

Rant begins.

Let's just pretend that Beane did not want anything to do with Kendall and his contract from Hell. He still needs to move Redman and Rhodes for personal reasons. So he ships Rhodes for Matt Lawton. Hey, if Pittsburgh could pull it off why couldn't Beane? Now I know what you're saying, Lawton was another bad contract and yes he was but who cares. When 2005 ended his $8 million contract disappeared off the books. Now, that $8 million was still $3 million LESS than Oakland paid Kendall last year. Better yet, Lawton got traded not once but twice last season, meaning the A's could have gotten a prospect of some caliber in addition to saving several million dollars.

Redman gets shipped to the Mets for Jason Phillips. This solves the A's catcher dilemma for 2005. How do we know this deal could happen? Good question. The Mets viewed Phillips as their 3rd string catcher at the start of 2005 and they traded him to the Dodgers for SP Kaz Ishii.

Ishii 2004: 31 GS 172 IP 155 Hits 21 HR 98/99 BB/K 13-8 4.71 $3.575 million 2005 salary

Redman 2004: 32 GS 191 IP 218 Hits 28 HR 68/102 BB/K 11-12 4.71 $4.5 million 2005 salary

I think it's fair to say that Redman and Ishii were an equal match.

"But Grover!" The masses cry, "Phillips sucked last year!" (Dammit, how many times do I have to tell you people that you use the lower case "g" when spelling my name UNLESS it's at the start of a sentence?!) Yes he did. Jason Phillips produced a rather woeful .238/.287/.363 line last season. But the upside is he did it at the cost of only $339 K. So we dump Phillips prior to the 2006 season and find a replacement. Who can we get?

Let's start with the obvious. When you factor in Kendall's $12 million price tag with the $7 million annual that Loaiza is earning, you get a nice, tidy sum of $19 million to play with. I'm gonna convince Wolff to toss an extra $1 million my way just so I have a round number to work with... $20 million.

With $20 million to play with, let me ask the AN faithful one question: Who do you want? Konerko? No problem. BJ Ryan? Done. AJ Burnett? If I must!
How about bringing back Ramon Hernandez for a cool $6 million? I like that idea. He may not be as gritty as a Jason Kendall-type, but he costs half as much and he can hit the ball out of the infield.

But what to do with the other $14 MILLION sitting in my pocket? I know. I can live with Saarloos as my 5th SP, why not drop $12 million on Brain Giles, a hitter so good even Ken Macha would bat him 3rd in the order! (Please note, this is not a shot at Crosby. I think even oaktoon would choose to bat Giles third instead of Crosby.) But hold on... if I add Giles I don't need Payton anymore. So I'll trade Payton, freeing up $4.5+ million to go with the leftovers from the $20 million and that's just enough to cover Loaiza! Ramon/Giles vs. Kendall/Payton, not a tough choice for me.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!

"Please grover, Giles is too old and my bosom heaves at the sight of Zito's uncoifed hair. Is there any way we can keep him beyond 2006?" Of course there is my little apple dumplings. We can still sign Ramon and Loaiza, that will leave us roughly $8 million in the coffers. I'll sign Barry to a 5 year, $60 million extension (5th year being a mutual option.) The trick is, I'm going to give him an $8 million signing bonus in 2006! That doubles his '06 salary and gives me the flexibility to pay him $10 million annual from 2007-2010.

ORDER IN THE NEXT 20 MINUTES AND GET THIS FREE BONUS!!!

The really cool thing (I think it's cool anyways) is I've made the $2 million bump in Zito's salary budget neutral. Kielty and Ginter will be gone come 2007, and that combined savings is greater than $2 million. Yay fiscal responsibility!

"One more request Mr. grover, sir. Can we get Ramon, Giles, Loaiza and re-sign Zito, all while staying cost-neutral?" Sure we could, and while I work on that why don't you go ask Santa for a pony.

Rant ends.

I don't know devo. I just get this feeling that Kendall kept Beane from some other opportunities.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Apr 21, 2006 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs