FanPost

Winexp 2: Players of the Week and Winnable Games

Well, that week sucked. Here is the A's week in win expectancy, or, in our case, loss expectancy. Search diaries for "winexp" for background.

Before we get to the numbers, Nico wrote what I thought was an excellent diary on Deconstructing Macha and his (tragic) choices between leaving in an awful starter and plumbing the bullpen. He guessed the following: You have a much better chance of winning a game if you take a one-run lead into the 9th inning than if you take a 3 or 4 run lead into the 2nd or 3rd inning and asked Baby W for her opinion. Unfortunately, I didn't get to read or watch much A's until now, but here's what I've got from historical data (see walkoffbunt.com for a handy form).


Visitor 1-run lead, Bottom of the 9th. Visitor Win % = 81.6%

Visitor 2-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 66.3%
Visitor 2-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 65.9% (weird statistical fluctuation)

Visitor 3-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 73%-74%
Visitor 3-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 76%

Visitor 4-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 80%
Visitor 4-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 83%

So I would say that you do have a better chance with a 1-run lead in the 9th than a 3-run lead in the 2nd or 3rd. Given random fluctuations, I'd say a 4-run lead in the 2nd or 3rd inning is about as winnable as a 1-run lead in the 9th in general.

This Week's A's Contributions


Name            WXC     Plays
Nick Swisher    +0.518  16  
Frank Thomas    +0.122  12  
Kiko Calero*    +0.088  4  
Brad Halsey*    +0.040  11  
Kirk Saarloos*  +0.031  5  
J Duchscherer*  +0.026  6  
Adam Melhuse    +0.021  4  
Joe Kennedy*    +0.018  3  
Antonio Perez   +0.013  1  
Jay Witasick*   -0.003  7  
Huston Street*  -0.017  6  
Dan Johnson     -0.031  11  
Eric Chavez     -0.049  15  
Mark Kotsay     -0.069  13  
Bobby Crosby    -0.078  17  
Milton Bradley  -0.083  16  
Marco Scutaro   -0.109  4  
Jay Payton      -0.194  12  
Jason Kendall   -0.214  13  
Barry Zito*     -0.228  30  
Joe Blanton*    -0.332  29  
Mark Ellis      -0.386  13  
Dan Haren*      -0.460  28  
Esteban Loaiza* -0.501  25  

The player of the week is Nick Swisher. I though Chavez would be in the running, but he has basically stunk since his two-homer game.

It's been a terrible week if Brad Halsey is your second most effective pitcher. It's been a truly miserable week when your five worst contributors are your starting four pitchers and Mark Ellis. Silver lining: Frank Thomas finally makes a positive contribution.

A's Contributions for All of 2006

Name            WXC     Plays
Nick Swisher    +0.459  37  
Marco Scutaro   +0.406  22  
Joe Kennedy*    +0.298  16  
J Duchscherer*  +0.290  25  
Mark Kotsay     +0.182  43  
Huston Street*  +0.157  20  
Rich Harden*    +0.150  51  
Joe Blanton*    +0.145  54  
Kiko Calero*    +0.136  20  
Milton Bradley  +0.124  47  
Kirk Saarloos*  +0.047  29  
Brad Halsey*    +0.038  24  
Eric Chavez     +0.029  45  
Adam Melhuse    +0.024  8  
Antonio Perez   +0.018  6  
Jay Witasick*   -0.001  24  
Jason Kendall   -0.071  37  
Frank Thomas    -0.110  36  
Bobby Crosby    -0.265  27  
Jay Payton      -0.272  31  
Mark Ellis      -0.354  40  
Barry Zito*     -0.431  65  
Dan Johnson     -0.433  33  
Dan Haren*      -0.571  53  
Esteban Loaiza* -0.801  52  

Top MLB Contributors, This Week

BAL Melvin Mora 1.130 22 HOU Morgan Ensberg 0.684 16 PIT Craig A. Wilson 0.641 17 PHI Aaron Rowand 0.608 19 LA Cody Ross 0.594 12 LA Bill Mueller 0.578 15 NYY Derek Jeter 0.578 20 ARI Chad Tracy 0.568 16 OAK Nick Swisher 0.518 16 PIT Jack Wilson 0.516 22 SEA Kenji Johjima 0.501 16 Top MLB Contributors, 2006

COL Todd Helton     1.133
BOS Curt Schilling* 1.084
CHW Jim Thome       1.078
HOU Roy Oswalt*     0.984
MIL Carlos N. Lee   0.937
STL Albert Pujols   0.893
STL Chr Carpenter*  0.886
NYM David Wright    0.883
BAL Ramon Hernandez 0.848
BAL Melvin Mora     0.813
CHC Michael Barrett 0.811
NYM Duaner Sanchez* 0.810

Duaner Sanchez is now the highest ranking WXC player I've never heard of.

Top 4 MLB Plays of the Week and Year

Apr 13, 2006 .  BAL v   TB.  Top 9.2. R:-1. B:1. Melvin Mora homered to left center, Markakis scored (0.829, +0.775)
Apr 11, 2006 .  KC v    NYY. Bot 8.2. R:-1. B:12. Derek Jeter homered to left center, Cano and Williams scored (0.949, +0.665)
Apr 11, 2006 .  TEX v   ANA. Bot 9.1. R:-1. B:12. Adam Kennedy doubled to right, Erstad and Izturis scored on second baseman Jimenez's fielding error (1.000, +0.610)
Apr 14, 2006 .  KC v    TB. Bot 7.2. R:-2. B:123. Jorge L. Cantu doubled to left, Perez, Gathright and Crawford scored (0.800, +0.556)

Okay, new week please.

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