Well, that week sucked. Here is the A's week in win expectancy, or, in our case, loss expectancy. Search diaries for "winexp" for background.
Before we get to the numbers, Nico wrote what I thought was an excellent diary on Deconstructing Macha and his (tragic) choices between leaving in an awful starter and plumbing the bullpen. He guessed the following: You have a much better chance of winning a game if you take a one-run lead into the 9th inning than if you take a 3 or 4 run lead into the 2nd or 3rd inning and asked Baby W for her opinion. Unfortunately, I didn't get to read or watch much A's until now, but here's what I've got from historical data (see walkoffbunt.com for a handy form).
Visitor 1-run lead, Bottom of the 9th. Visitor Win % = 81.6%
Visitor 2-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 66.3%
Visitor 2-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 65.9% (weird statistical fluctuation)
Visitor 3-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 73%-74%
Visitor 3-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 76%
Visitor 4-run lead, Bottom of the 2nd. Visitor Win % = 80%
Visitor 4-run lead, Bottom of the 3rd. Visitor Win % = 83%
So I would say that you do have a better chance with a 1-run lead in the 9th than a 3-run lead in the 2nd or 3rd. Given random fluctuations, I'd say a 4-run lead in the 2nd or 3rd inning is about as winnable as a 1-run lead in the 9th in general.
This Week's A's Contributions
Name WXC Plays
Nick Swisher +0.518 16
Frank Thomas +0.122 12
Kiko Calero* +0.088 4
Brad Halsey* +0.040 11
Kirk Saarloos* +0.031 5
J Duchscherer* +0.026 6
Adam Melhuse +0.021 4
Joe Kennedy* +0.018 3
Antonio Perez +0.013 1
Jay Witasick* -0.003 7
Huston Street* -0.017 6
Dan Johnson -0.031 11
Eric Chavez -0.049 15
Mark Kotsay -0.069 13
Bobby Crosby -0.078 17
Milton Bradley -0.083 16
Marco Scutaro -0.109 4
Jay Payton -0.194 12
Jason Kendall -0.214 13
Barry Zito* -0.228 30
Joe Blanton* -0.332 29
Mark Ellis -0.386 13
Dan Haren* -0.460 28
Esteban Loaiza* -0.501 25
The player of the week is Nick Swisher. I though Chavez would be in the running, but he has basically stunk since his two-homer game.
It's been a terrible week if Brad Halsey is your second most effective pitcher. It's been a truly miserable week when your five worst contributors are your starting four pitchers and Mark Ellis. Silver lining: Frank Thomas finally makes a positive contribution.
A's Contributions for All of 2006
Name WXC Plays
Nick Swisher +0.459 37
Marco Scutaro +0.406 22
Joe Kennedy* +0.298 16
J Duchscherer* +0.290 25
Mark Kotsay +0.182 43
Huston Street* +0.157 20
Rich Harden* +0.150 51
Joe Blanton* +0.145 54
Kiko Calero* +0.136 20
Milton Bradley +0.124 47
Kirk Saarloos* +0.047 29
Brad Halsey* +0.038 24
Eric Chavez +0.029 45
Adam Melhuse +0.024 8
Antonio Perez +0.018 6
Jay Witasick* -0.001 24
Jason Kendall -0.071 37
Frank Thomas -0.110 36
Bobby Crosby -0.265 27
Jay Payton -0.272 31
Mark Ellis -0.354 40
Barry Zito* -0.431 65
Dan Johnson -0.433 33
Dan Haren* -0.571 53
Esteban Loaiza* -0.801 52
Top MLB Contributors, This Week
COL Todd Helton 1.133
BOS Curt Schilling* 1.084
CHW Jim Thome 1.078
HOU Roy Oswalt* 0.984
MIL Carlos N. Lee 0.937
STL Albert Pujols 0.893
STL Chr Carpenter* 0.886
NYM David Wright 0.883
BAL Ramon Hernandez 0.848
BAL Melvin Mora 0.813
CHC Michael Barrett 0.811
NYM Duaner Sanchez* 0.810
Duaner Sanchez is now the highest ranking WXC player I've never heard of.
Top 4 MLB Plays of the Week and Year
Apr 13, 2006 . BAL v TB. Top 9.2. R:-1. B:1. Melvin Mora homered to left center, Markakis scored (0.829, +0.775)
Apr 11, 2006 . KC v NYY. Bot 8.2. R:-1. B:12. Derek Jeter homered to left center, Cano and Williams scored (0.949, +0.665)
Apr 11, 2006 . TEX v ANA. Bot 9.1. R:-1. B:12. Adam Kennedy doubled to right, Erstad and Izturis scored on second baseman Jimenez's fielding error (1.000, +0.610)
Apr 14, 2006 . KC v TB. Bot 7.2. R:-2. B:123. Jorge L. Cantu doubled to left, Perez, Gathright and Crawford scored (0.800, +0.556)
Okay, new week please.