Will 2006 be the year of the Moneyball Closer?

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 3:57 PM PST

One of the tenets of Moneyball is to use your best reliever when the score is closest, regardless of which team has the lead. Fortunately our bullpen is stacked this year with quality arms. Sarloos should be a #5 starter, not simply a long-man/mop-up guy. Street has Duke and Kiko setting up for him, Witasick has been good so far and is locked up at bargain basement prices, and Kennedy has been much improved since he focused on just being a reliever - and he has loads of incentives since he's in his walk year. Since we have several pitchers who could in theory close a game, I say it's time we use Street only when the game is tied or one run apart, whether it is the 9th, 8th, or even 7th or 6th inning.

Since baseball is a game of attrition played with pitchers arms, and warming up for a game also wears down pitchers, we should try to use our relievers for more than one inning whenever possible. Use them for 1.5, 2, or even more if need be. We should also use statistical analysis to see which pitchers should relieve which starters. It seems to me that since Duke's best pitch is his curve ball, having him relieve Zito is a bad idea. Even though one's a righty and the other's a lefty, after seeing Zito's curve all game, Duke's won't be as hard to hit. That however is just my completely uninformed opinion, and it may be total crap - in addition to being wrong. We can however use statistics to figure out who should relieve for who against which batters.

So that is my big wishlist for this season.
1)I would love to see Street called out in the middle of the 6th inning when it is a tie game with runners on first and second. That's when we need him most, so let's see him really help the teams, and not simply rack up the meaningless stat known as "saves".
2)Let's see relievers pitch more outs per outing, and thereby prepare for and pitch in fewer games each season, even as their total innings stay the same, to help keep them fresh throughout the season.
3)Let's see if there's some consistency in who relieves for who, which would indicate that Frost and Billy gave Macha info on the best way to mess with batters by getting the optimal reliever for each starter. (Essentially I want to pair each reliever to a starter, with Street saved for super tight game, and having either Kennedy or Sarloos always available in case a starter needs to leave the game early or extra innings is called for.)

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you will never see that

MACHO(a) is too old fashioned to do something that logical (as is the rest of baseball), and it would kill the inflated "closer" pricetag market.

I like the idea, though.

Question: how does one pitch one half of an inning, exactly?

by noava22 on Mar 19, 2006 5:26 PM PST reply actions

How does one pitch one half of an inning ?

By being thrown out of the game one and a half strikes into the second out.

by green star oakland on Mar 19, 2006 5:41 PM PST up reply actions

Let's say he averages 12 pitches per inning

Then take him out after 6 pitches.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 6:32 PM PST up reply actions

bambi, I think your notion

with Street makes sense in the playoffs (short series) a little more than during the season. I have long advocated for looking at "the critical inning" as much as "the 9th inning," as many, many games are decided in the 7th-8th when starters are tiring but closers not yet used. But I also am sensitive to the fact that psychologically not all innings are alike for all pitchers, and to the fact that pitchers say they prefer to know their roles as much as possible. In a playoff series, though, I hope this would be considered for a given "just gotta win this one" game.

by Nico on Mar 19, 2006 5:54 PM PST reply actions

What about the Stats idea?

Using stats to figure out which reliever should take over for which starter?

Besides, don't you think Street is mentally tough enough to be used when he's needed? Don't you think Duke or Kiko step up into the role of "Closer when the game isn't too tight"?

Or how about everyone goes to the end of the game, unless if it's super close and crtical, in which case Street will come in?

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 6:35 PM PST up reply actions

Street isn't the problem

The real question is whether or not the A's could find two pitchers who have the mentality to pitch the 9th of a 1 run game. Just look at Arthur Rhodes over the past two seasons. In '05 he could hold a 1 run lead in the 8th inning no problem. In '04, when asked to hold the same lead for the A's in the 9th....

Street has shown the toughness to pitch that 1 run 9th. There have been several good relief pitchers who just couldn't hack it in the 9th inning.

And it probably wouldn't be too effective to use stats to help determine which RP should follow a particular SP. It's more important to match up personell (and stuff) against the opposing hitters. For example, let's say that the stats say everytime Saarloos follows Zito he's brilliant. And then one day Zito pitches and Saarloos goes in and gets clobbered because the team he is facing is a good low-ball hitting team.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Mar 19, 2006 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

Duke has the toughness

I have no doubt about that.

But anyway, you're asking the wrong question. Are these guys good enough to be trained to pitch the final inning. We have enough candidates that I'm sure one than will make it.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 6:54 PM PST up reply actions

Rhodes didn't pitch well

in the setup role in 03 because he was hurt, and he was never really healthy in 04. I think that, more than a lack of intestinal fortitude, contributed to his terrible stint as a closer. Rhodes's success in 05 had more to do with his health than anything else.

That being said, I do think that there are some relievers who don't have the mental toughness to pitch in save situations, although 1) they are the exception and not the rule and 2) the pressure is more imagined than real as the high-leverage situation is rarely the one in the ninth.

Regarding the first point: many, many relief pitchers become very good closers merely by happenstance: Joe Nathan, Jason Isringhausen, Eric Gagne, even Billy Taylor. Keith Foulke was removed from the closer role in 02 because of a few high-profile meltdowns, but was just fine as the A's closer in 03.

Regardint the second point: while it is true that the high-leverage situation usually occurs before the save situation, I do concede that the pressure that the pitcher feels does play a role in his performance. To this end, the manager does need to consider whether his pitchers feel more comfortable in defined roles (set-up, closer, middle relief) or fluid ones. Since this may materially impact performance, it might be even more important than taking advantage of high leverage situations.

Nick86 makes a good point that, while A's managers have been slave to the save, they are not as bad as many other managers.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Mar 19, 2006 7:18 PM PST up reply actions

Quit blaming Macha

Bringing in Street in the 6th doesn't make sense because he's never going to be warming up in the 5th. Obviously, bringing in Street when the A's need him most would be optimal, but I can't imagine Macha saying, "all right, bottom 5, tie game, blanton's pitching fine...but i'm going to warm up street, just in case something funky happens." it's a good thought but just doesn't work logistically.

also, to say the a's go by convention when using relievers is just gosh damned silly. unlike most teams, the a's aren't afraid to bring in their closer in tie games. also, they like to pitch their closers multiple innings. how do you think billy koch and keith foulke (our last two full season closers) racked up ten wins? do you see troy percival and trevor hoffman winning ten games a year? no, because they don't come in in tie games.

by Nick86 on Mar 19, 2006 6:55 PM PST reply actions

an average of 10 wins

kock had 11, flouke had 9.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Mar 19, 2006 7:02 PM PST up reply actions

We don't want Street lead the AL in saves

For that means he pitched too many games. We all want him to go 2 or 3 innings when things are close, and let someone else close when we are up by two in the 9th and facing the bottom of the order.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 7:10 PM PST up reply actions

Right idea wrong reason....

We don't want street leading the AL in saves because we want the team to blow out opponents, so there are few save opportunities. :)

by Donner on Mar 20, 2006 11:03 AM PST up reply actions

I do think closers could be

held out of more games where the team leads by 3 runs going to the 9th, especially on teams that have worthy middle relievers. To use Street, or K-Rod, if Duke, Calero, or Shields is fresher is, IMO, a mistake.

But to think that guys like Bradford and Rhodes are as effective in the 9th as in the 7th is, IMO, also a mistake. There are few guys who can excel equally in 3-4 different kinds of roles, something that is obscured by the fact that we probably have two in Duke and (I would assume) Street.

by Nico on Mar 19, 2006 7:38 PM PST reply actions

So use Street as the tight spot closer

And Duke for the rest of the closings.

I have a hunch that with Kennedy in his walk year, he'd be willing to step up as well if given the chance. That would make him our third string closer. We don't need more than that.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 7:44 PM PST up reply actions

If you think Kennedy

could ever close, then we're not anywhere close to the same page no mo'. Kennedy against 3 righties in the 9th inning of a close game? No thanks.

by Nico on Mar 19, 2006 8:33 PM PST up reply actions

Not against 3 righties

But I'm very impressed with his progress. Some players explode in their walk years. I have a strong vibe Kennedy will be one of them, which will be great for us. As a bonus, we can use the draft picks.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 9:06 PM PST up reply actions

If Kennedy were in,

you can bet he'd be facing 3 righties more often than not. Opposing managers ain't stoopid.

by Nico on Mar 19, 2006 9:32 PM PST up reply actions

Sum iz

sum izn't

will c how Kendies duz genst ryteez dis year

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 9:51 PM PST up reply actions

From tomorrow's DLD

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060319&content_id=1356146& ;vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

The six pitchers who are expected to make up the A's bullpen -- Kennedy, Huston Street, Kiko Calero, Justin Duchscherer, Kirk Saarloos and Jay Witasick -- have a combined 2.43 ERA.

A's starter Dan Haren, among others, is probably happy Kennedy finally allowed a run.

"I don't want him going into the season with any kind of streak," Haren said earlier in the week. "He's throwing the best of any pitcher. I don't like playing catch with him because he throws so hard, and it keeps hitting my thumb."

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 8:30 PM PST reply actions

Two issues

(i) Apart from the issues raised above, the critical point in a game is often not apparent until after its over. What do you do when Huston has pitched with 2 on in the 6th, and you're facing the same situation in the bottom of the 9th ?

(ii) Piling up save statistics - however overrated they might be - has been used by the A's as an effective way of inflating the value of a closer prior to trading them (see for example Koch, B). Moneyball isn't just about seeking out the undervalued, but also about trading the overvalued (especially if it can be manufactured).

by green star oakland on Mar 19, 2006 9:17 PM PST reply actions

Your first point

is excellente, fo' shizzle.

by Nico on Mar 19, 2006 9:31 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed

However, we don't necessarily want to 'hype' up Street with save statistics. Seeing as we have him cheap now...it would be detrimental to have him rack up 40+ saves twice before he hits his arbitration years starting in 2008. For this reason it may be beneficial to have him save the 'tough' games, and let Calero or Duke handle the 3-run leads in the ninth (assuming all were available.)

Then again I think Street is already creating enough hype for himself anyways. Being selected to the US team helps, so does being Rookie of the Year. He's already become a 'media darling' with all his television interviews and appearances (ESPN mobile commercial).

It's a pretty safe bet he gets a Z-M-H / Croz / Harden type deal after next season anyways.

by FireballerHARDEN on Mar 19, 2006 10:27 PM PST up reply actions

You asked:

What do you do when Huston has pitched with 2 on in the 6th, and you're facing the same situation in the bottom of the 9th?

Good point. However, if Street doesn't pitch in the 6th, you won't be facing that same situation in the 9th - you'll be down by a run or two instead.

I never did the math, but the experts say that when it's a tie game with no outs in the sixth inning with runners on first and second, and you need to pull your starter out, you should go straight to your best bullpen arm, which for us is Street. I would be nice to see it happen - so we can see if the firsthand if the calculations will actually work.

by Bambi on Mar 19, 2006 9:50 PM PST reply actions

An interesting point

But here it seems that your assuming any reliever other than Street would fail in this situation. Even if we assume that this is true, I would rather have him blow the lead in the 6th than the 9th. At least then we have 3 innings to come back.

by OkayJay81 on Mar 19, 2006 10:16 PM PST up reply actions

Situational

Street is probably the A's best reliever, but that doesn't mean he's the A's best option in every tight situation. If there are runners at 1st and second and one out, putting Saarloos (an extreme GB:FB pitcher) in there for a GIDP could be optimal. Similarly, with a runner on 3B and 1 out, bringing in Calero (who has the best K/9) might be ideal.

by Danny on Mar 20, 2006 5:45 AM PST reply actions