2007 Moneyball Draft

by Bambi on Feb 4, 2006 6:46 PM PST

The 2006 draft will be painful for us. If only Dotel And Durazo held up, we could have had two as many as four draft picks before the second round, but instead we'll have to sit out the first round this year. The good news is that we may have a good draft in 2007. It looks like we'll be keeping Zito this year, and if Meyer/Brandon/Windsor pan out we may not have to resign him. That will give us two additional draft picks. We also have JayPay and Joe Kennedy, who will walk after this year. Neither one is earning big bucks, so if they each have a good year we would be able to safely offer them arbitration. I realize the primary goal is to win now, but if Macha ever has the chance, he should pad the stats on these two to make them more desirable. If we are ever up by 3 in the ninth inning and have three average lefties up at bat, let Kennedy get the save so he can put it on his resume. Each of these guys has the incentive to make this year count and thereby earn a good free agent package. I hope Macha gives these guys the opportunity to prove themselves. If we have 3 free agents leave us, we could have as many as SEVEN draft picks before the 2nd round. It would be the Moneyball draft all over again, but with the lessons learned. (For some reason Atlanta made an exception to their usual strategy and went after the college aged Meyer while we ignored him completely.) The last Moneyball draft gave us two solid ROY candidates in the first round. I hope in 2007 we do even better.

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Picks

1- Joe Kennedy is a candidate to be traded this year, and even if he walks, no team in their right mind would give up any picks for him. The only way we'd get a pick for him would be if he qualifies as a type A free agent, and the team signing him has their 1st round pick protected (15th or higher). And for Kennedy to be a type A I'd think he'd have to start and pitch very well.

2- Ditto for Payton; nobody's going to give up a pick for him, though he has a better shot of making it as a type A and thus possibly netting us a compensation pick if he signs with a team that blows this year.

So it seems to me only Zito, and possibly Thomas if he bounces back, could garner us any draft picks.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 4, 2006 7:00 PM PST reply actions

Type A, B, C

How is the determination made of whether a player is Type A or not? Hasn't Thomas been resigned too many times?

by Bambi on Feb 4, 2006 7:10 PM PST up reply actions

We will get picks for Kenndey

If he is in the top 60 percent we get a pick and that is very likely.

Same with Payton.

You need to learn the rules on picks.

No people do not want to give us picks but they will.

Why don't they just lick their fingers? -- http://oaklandprospects.blogspot.com/

by novaoakland on Feb 4, 2006 7:29 PM PST up reply actions

Personally, I doubt

Kennedy will be in the top 60% but who knows. Bambi, possible typo alert: I think where you put "Brandon" you probably meant "Braden".

by Nico on Feb 4, 2006 7:35 PM PST up reply actions

Picks

You need to learn that teams would be very stupid to give up a pick by signing Joe Kennedy. Truly "free" sandwich round picks only come from loss of Type A free agents, and only if Kennedy suddenly turns into Randy Johnson will he be a Type A.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 4, 2006 10:12 PM PST up reply actions

Hypothetically speaking

If Kennedy has a real good year out of the A's bullpen, than combined with his 2004 season he should be worth compensation.

And before you go off about how stupid a team would have to be to give up a draft pick for Kennedy, please remember that you root for a team that once gave up a 1st round pick to sign Mike Magnante.

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 5, 2006 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

Beane admitted that

it was a stupid clerical error that led to that. So yeah, maybe we could get compensation if a team is that stupid again.

Odds are, Joe Kennedy will go the route of Erubiel Durazo, Octavio Dotel, Jermaine Dye, et al.- the A's just won't want to risk having Kennedy accept arbitration.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 5, 2006 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

Or he could end being next year's

Scott Eyre.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerStats?categoryId=104230

Worthy of Type A compensation and the Cubs jumped all over him. I'm just saying it's not necessarily stupid if someone gives up a draft pick to get Kennedy in 2007. If he excells in the LH set-up role next year than some team might think that it's worth giving up a draft pick.

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 5, 2006 5:47 PM PST up reply actions

I sure hope so

On both accounts: that Kennedy has a great year (if he's with us, if he's traded I couldn't care less) and that we get those draft picks.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 5, 2006 7:08 PM PST up reply actions

What are the odds?

What are the odds of his having a good enough year that teams would want ti sign him to mulit-year deal? If he gets an ERA of 3.5 or less, and does well both in long relief and in high pressure save type situations, there will be plenty of interest. If he does well Macha should give him his shot to sign. Remeber, he needs this year more than we do, so if he earns a shot we should give it to him.

by Bambi on Feb 5, 2006 8:44 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know

Kennedy and Payton might just end up qualifying as type C Free Agents, thus at best giving us a 2nd round pick each. Its unikely we'll get anything from them.

Most likely we will have three 1st round picks, and thats it.

The problem with the Moneyball draft was that we went for the cheap picks instead of the good picks. Only Blanton and Swisher ended up being worth anything. Teahan is about to be ousted from 3B if he doesn't produce this year and Brown is a backup catcher. The rest suck.

Knowledge is Power, Ignorance is Bliss. But I have Blissful Power, because I have a lot of knowledge, I just forgot it all!

by Zonis on Feb 4, 2006 7:42 PM PST reply actions

Teahen's path.

Right now, KC's third base backup is Esteban German. Is Alex Gordon ready this year? Doubt it. So Teahen is penciled in for pretty much the entire year.

In 2007, Gordon's ready. Since Gordon is a superior talent, Teahen is gone anyways. I don't think he'll move to second and replace Angel Berroa (no matter how bad he is) or will unseat Justin Huber for a DH slot anytime soon. So I don't think he's in for a spot past next year anyways?

Damn! Street is so imposing, he even causes the earth itself to freeze in fear! - monkeyball

by Jjjsixsix on Feb 4, 2006 10:35 PM PST up reply actions

02 draft...

Komine and Kohn could still amount to something out of the pen, and Teahen could break out (good second half last year)...

Your assesment of the 02 draft is a bit harsh. Granted it wasn't nearly as good as it was made out to be, but Swisher and Blanton are perfectly fine first round success stories, the kind any team would love to draft year after year...

by Little Rickey on Feb 4, 2006 11:00 PM PST up reply actions

Don't give up on Fritz just yet

He's back from TJ surgery and I have a hunch the A's will move him back into the bullpen to make up for lost time.

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 5, 2006 1:43 PM PST up reply actions

Wasn't Damian Miller

A type a free agent? We picked up a sandwich pick and a second round pick. I do believe that Kennedy and Payton will be signed by other teams and they will give up their picks, because some teams don't rely heavily on the draft. If Kennedy puts up pretty decent numbers, he'll be signed regardless of the draft picks. The only problem is arbitration. The a's wouldn't offer Kennedy or Payton arbitration so we may lose the picks then.

by asyouwish33 on Feb 5, 2006 10:43 AM PST reply actions

It depends

Their salaries this year are not so high. If they do well enough that teams would want to sign them to a multi-year deal, we could offer them arbitration and let them sign elsewhere.

by Bambi on Feb 5, 2006 11:41 AM PST up reply actions

Correction

Kennedy makes $2.4 million, Payton makes $4 million. Do you see them getting multi-year deals around those figures? Only if they break out with career years, and it's going to be tough for them to do that if one is slated to be our LOOGY/longman and they other our 4th OF.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 5, 2006 5:02 PM PST up reply actions