Mark Ellis: The Best Second Baseman of 2005?

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 4:22 PM PST in News

Mark Ellis possibly had a career season in 2005. He led the A's in batting average and OPS. For a second baseman, that's a remarkable feat. He was rewarded with a two-year contract with an option year. This after Billy Beane basically said that he wasn't looking to sign any of his arbitration-eligible players to a multi-year deals in the interview with Athletics Nation.

You could make the argument that Ellis was the best at his position in 2005 when you combine offensive and defensive contributions. Who are the contenders?

Jeff Kent, Alfonso Soriano, Chase Utley, Marcus Giles and Brian Roberts all had outstanding years and merit consideration.

Ellis finished fourth among all second basemen in the majors in OPS. The only three better than him were Utley, Roberts and Kent. Ellis was sixth in terms of VORP, which measures a player's value offensively. Roberts, Kent, Soriano, Utley and Giles were all higher than Ellis. Ellis, for the record, was the highest rated A's position player in the value over replacement player system. Ellis had the second highest batting average for second baseman and hit only two fewer home runs and 11 fewer RBIs than Marcus Giles, despite 143 fewer at-bats. Brian Roberts had 127 more at-bats and only hit five fewer home runs, despite his torrid start to the year. Soriano carries the baggage of that .309 OBP to go along with his 36 home runs. No one can say Kent didn't have a great offensive year, but that brings me to my next discussion. Defense. Keep in mind that Ellis ranks near the top in terms of 2005 value rankings for all of the systems looking at second baseman's offensive production.

But the difference comes when you look at the defensive rankings. You can almost immediately rule out Soriano and Kent in this discussion because they are not above average defensively according to Dave Pinto's defensive rankings. Ellis was in the top six in fielding percentage at his position, with Placido Polanco, Orlandon Hudson, Adam Kennedy, Mark Grudzielanek and Craig Counsell ranking higher. Ellis was the highest ranked second baseman in terms of zone rankings, according to ESPN.com.

So, ultimately, if you look at the combined 2005 offensive and defensive contributions from second basemen, the only player who is competition for Mark Ellis was Chase Utley, who was the best all-around second baseman in 2005. Utley was remarkable offensively, even though his stats were helped by a nice hitter's park in Philly. But he was also great defensively as well. Utley was second in zone rating, and near the very top of Pinto's rankings. Second base isn't traditionally a position where you get a huge offensive contribution, but Ellis was the A's best offensive player in 2005 and he was quite possibly the best defensive second baseman as well.

Will Ellis repeat that perfomance in 2006? The 28-year-old is in his prime years, and he should have more at-bats to prove himself if Macha is true to his word and bats Ellis at leadoff. It's remarkable that Ellis had the season that he did given the shoulder injury he had the season before. If you take that into account and the fact that Ellis should have many more at-bats, I think you'll see something similar from him in 2006, even if the stat line drops a little.

Still for Ellis to do what he did in 2005 is a testament to the guy's determination and drive to be the best ballplayer he can be. Hopefully Bobby Crosby can remain healthy and collision-free in 2006 and we see what this double-play combo can really do in a full year. I have a feeling it could be magical.

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Comments

I have a man-crush on Ellis...

ChunkyLover53

by OaklandInvader on Feb 2, 2006 4:34 PM PST reply actions

so did BoCro ...

... and look how that turned out.

BoCro crush!

"Yay for drug adventures!" -- HollywoodOz @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2006 6:04 PM PST up reply actions

Much love to Elly ...

but Chase Utley was easily the best second bagger in the game last year and the gap will soon grow into a chasm.

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Feb 2, 2006 4:49 PM PST reply actions

Whatever, devo

Everybody knows you're a MaElH8r.

Agreed on Utley. He looks like the real deal, and might allow the Phils to deal Burrell for pitching sometime soon.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 2, 2006 5:04 PM PST up reply actions

Surprisingly, Utley is only one year younger

than Ellis. I think people forget that.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 5:23 PM PST up reply actions

A Year and a Half

It's more like a year and a half, but who's counting?

by SeanR on Feb 2, 2006 5:24 PM PST up reply actions

if we find a Catholic priest ...

... could we fill the chasm with chrism?

"Yay for drug adventures!" -- HollywoodOz @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2006 6:05 PM PST up reply actions

I hope you're right,

but I had this sneaking suspicion today that Ellis will be the one guy that gets hurt this year. I pray to God (if there is one) that this doesn't happen, but for some reason, since everyone is talking about others (FT, Bradley, Kotsay) getting injured, I had a feeling that it will be Ellis again. Believe me, it pains me to type this to all you, but it's just what came into my head earlier today, and I debated whether or not to post it. With this latest post, despite my man-crush on Ellis and his numbers, I'm afraid. In short, I hope what I type is misguided and purely wrong, and I'm sorry if I scare anyone, it's just what my inside is telling me.

"...and in Joe [Blanton]'s case, it's almost like he crammed the whole rookie year in a month, then became a veteran." --Billy Beane

by rungood on Feb 2, 2006 4:51 PM PST reply actions

{claps hands over ears}

LA LA LA LA LA I don't heeeeeaaarrr yooooouuu LA LA LA LA LA...

"You don't look up truthiness in a book, you look it up in your gut." ~ Stephen Colbert

by Poppy on Feb 2, 2006 9:18 PM PST up reply actions

<claps hands over eyes>

ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM I don't seeeeeeeeeeee yoooooooouuuu ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM ANAHEIM

"Yay for drug adventures!" -- HollywoodOz @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 3, 2006 9:45 AM PST up reply actions

Remeber when Beane

Tried to get Brian Roberts off of the Orioles? He knows his stuff.

Ellis best AL 2B, but next year I think Mark Loretta will have some good numbers in Fenway. Ellis is probably the best defensive 2B in the AL now that Orlando Hudson is gone. I wouldn't trade our infield for any other team in the AL's.

"If you throw at someone's head, it's very dangerous, because in the head is the brain." -- Pudge Rodriguez

by niallmack on Feb 2, 2006 5:05 PM PST reply actions

Personally if I could chose 2nd baseman,

I'd choose Utley, then Polanco, then probably Giles, then Ellis (followed by Weeks(for long-term), Roberts, and Kent). But maybe it's just preference.

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

by vignette17 on Feb 2, 2006 5:09 PM PST reply actions

Polanco also had a great year

both with the glove and the bat. He must have hit over .400 against A's pitching and hit about .331 overall with a .383 obp. Nice guy to have at the top of the lineup. Of course he's YET another 2B that Beane tried to pick up (in addition to Roberts)!

"Macha, Howe...whatever." --salb918

by BruceBochte on Feb 2, 2006 5:11 PM PST reply actions

Every pitch made to PP

from A's pitching last year he connected for at least a double (at least it seemed that way).

by eamb on Feb 2, 2006 5:34 PM PST up reply actions

polanco

It's crazy to think Polanco and Utley were sharing time at the beginning of the year.

What a bad trade by philly. They should have just moved Polanco to 3b to replace the awful David Bell. Polanco is one of most underrated players in baseball.

by dbeach13 on Feb 2, 2006 6:59 PM PST up reply actions

i like ellis,but...

I think the jury is still out on this guy. Is he the '03 player who hit 248/313/371 in 154 GMS or the '05 player who hit 316/384/477 in 122 GMS?

If he hits like he did in '03 the A's will quickly be looking for a new leadoff hitter.

When you look at the contract I must say it's a another stroke of genius by beane. Ellis comes off a career year and Beane signs him for 2 years with '06 @ 2.25 and '07 @ 3.5. The option at 5 can be declined for 250 K and ellis is still arbie eligible. With players like Pennington and others in the minors beane can trade Ellis in '07, decline the '08 contract for 250 K and still own Ellis and trade him.

by bigelephant on Feb 2, 2006 5:13 PM PST reply actions

Please remember the question

It wasn't, is Ellis the best second baseman in baseball? It was, did he have the best collective (offensively and defensively) 2005 out of all MLB second basemen?

The answer, to me, is Utley was the only one who was the better second baseman in 2005.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 5:22 PM PST reply actions

well, let's say he did

Nevertheless, as my post tries to point out, can he keep it up or was '05 an anomaly and will he sadly slide back to his '03 numbers?

by bigelephant on Feb 2, 2006 5:33 PM PST up reply actions

plus, if we agree....

...Ellis was the 2nd or 3rd best 2nd bagger in MLB last yr, Beane signing him at 2.25 in '06 was a steal.

by bigelephant on Feb 2, 2006 5:36 PM PST up reply actions

Definitely a steal

I'm not sure he can keep it up, but I also don't think he'll slide back to 03 numbers either. I'm thinking probably a .360 OBP and a .290 or so batting average which definitely makes the contract a steal.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 5:39 PM PST up reply actions

apparently forst did the contract.

he earned his keep for another year.

by bigelephant on Feb 2, 2006 5:43 PM PST up reply actions

Certainly at worst,

Ellis had a career year or will have a return to injury. But at best, if he had a breakout year, Ellis is turning into a "poor man's Michael Young," and that is not a bad thing to be!

And while I still love Kots in "that way," Ellis is on the receiving end of much of my current man-crush energy.

by Nico on Feb 2, 2006 5:50 PM PST reply actions

Ellis 2005 season was not a fluke

His batting average might have been the highest we'll see, but I really believe he's the real deal. Why? In the second half of 2003, pitchers were getting Mark out the same way they did Bobby Crosby in 2004 - breaking pitches low and away. He, like Bobby in 2004, just couldn't seem to make the adjustment in 2003. But I remember him acknowledging this weakness before Spring Training 2004. Correcting that weakness seemed his number one priority, already having been recognized as one of the best defensive 2B in the AL.

I think he would have had the same breakout season in 2004, had the injury not occurred. Last year, Mark did a much, much better job with the outside slider. He cut his strikeouts down from 1 in 5.88 AB in 2003 to 1 in 8.5 in 2005. It had much to do with this single correction. I also put much faith in all that has been said by Macha, Wash and Beane who have consistently remarked as to Mark's cerebral side and work ethic. That's why I'm confident in his future.

2006/2007 will see .285 to .290 from this guy.

by elephant man on Feb 2, 2006 6:24 PM PST reply actions

Marl Ellis

I admittedly have a bias, having watched Mark play with Post 22 in Rapid City.

But, I marvel at all of the folks that think his 2005 season was a "career" year. This is a guy who, had he not been hurt in 2004, probably would have been in the running for the gold glove at 2nd base. His range is amazing, particularily going back for those pop ups into the outfield or deep foul. And as a hitter, this is a smart guy. In 2005, he had to "sit" for Marco and Keith before he could make his point. But, when he finally got to play, he made it in spades. I think that the Mark Ellis we saw in the 2nd half of 2005 is the real Mark Ellis, and 2006 is going to be a banner year. Would you believe 20 to 25 dingers? That's only taking his 2nd half last year and doubling it.

Generally speaking, if any other A's player had had the 2nd half that Ellis had, everyone would be saying--wait for 2006! But for Ellis, most of you are saying--it was a fluke! Why? This is a good ball player and Oakland has him for three more years!

Let's go Oakland!

by racodd on Feb 2, 2006 6:35 PM PST up reply actions

well, it WAS a career year!

The dude has only play 2 1/2 years in the MLB and he is 28.

I'm not disrespecting his game, i happen to like guys like ellis. all i'm saying is because the guy doesn't have a long track record there is a chance the '03 year is the REAL Ellis, not the the '05 year.

I hope not but we'ii see.

by bigelephant on Feb 2, 2006 6:43 PM PST up reply actions

Ellis is a leader

Aside from his amazing comeback, which speaks volumes about his work ethic, he seems to be recognized by players and coaches alike for his leadership qualities. He's a natural, and he's earned everyone's respect. I believe that Mark will put up numbers close to last year, proving he's the real deal, AND a steal.

Something big crashes in the clubhouse.

by SF Geoff on Feb 2, 2006 6:37 PM PST reply actions

Another reason I favor

"breakout year" over "career year" is Ellis' work ethic. Guys with his work ethic tend to consistently overachieve; Randy Velarde comes to mind. Guys with issues related to attitude, head, ethic, etc. tend to fluctuate wildly and follow career years with deep regressions; Juan Cruz comes to mind.

Not only did Ellis learn to lay off the slider low and away, he also did a lot of work to turn soft bloopers to right into line drives, which has kept the defense far more honest against him.

I think he's the real deal, due for a natural regression but not a deep or prolonged one. I would tab him for closer to 13 HRs than 25, though, personally.

by Nico on Feb 2, 2006 7:24 PM PST up reply actions

Ellis

Last year seemed to be more of what a typical Ellis year will be like. He'll probably improve on it some, but I think if he stays healthy that those numbers are what to expect from him. It's hard to say he was the best 2nd baseman in baseball, but if he keeps putting up the numbers it'll be hard for him not to be in the discussion.

by Chavez4Prez on Feb 2, 2006 7:45 PM PST reply actions

Top 5 for sure

Utley is clearly number one.

Ellis and Polanco are the only other two who are in the top five for both offense and defense, but B-Rob's great hitting and above average defense put him up there as well. No matter how you slice it, he's a top five guy, and I would project the same for him this year.

Pretty soon you will be able to pose these types of questions on AN about player valuation and have a SABR-style statistical analysis done for free with a new player valuation system that breaks down hitting, fielding, and base-running to deliver one "value" number. It is similar to what BP or Bill James and co have been doing, but takes things a step further than previous attempts at player valuation. Can't say to much right now, but I am really stoked about it and I think you all will be too (especially since it will probably be exclusive to AN in the early going). I'll post more details as I can.

Go A's.

by meadball on Feb 2, 2006 7:51 PM PST reply actions

Given their relative ages,

there may be several years where Ellis is superior to Johnny Damon--maybe more years than Damon is superior to Ellis? Remember, Ellis was the "throw in" (or the "other guy") in the Johnny Damon deal. Interesting to ponder...

by Nico on Feb 2, 2006 8:05 PM PST up reply actions

Great trade, no?

Mark Ellis and Cory Lidle were the throw-ins in the Johnny Damon trade. All for AJ Hinch, Ben Grieve, and Angel Berroa.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 2, 2006 8:16 PM PST up reply actions

Ben Grieve?

i dont thin Grieve was in that deal. I could've sworn he was dealt to T.B. for Lidle, or was it a 3-way that is confusing me?

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Feb 2, 2006 9:52 PM PST reply actions

Ellis

Ellis had a fantastic year, but there's no way he was better than Utley or Roberts. They were both at least 20 runs better than Ellis with the bat, and I don't think Ellis comes close to making that up in the field. He was probably 10-15 runs above average with the glove, but Roberts and (especially) Utley are supposedly above average with the glove themselves.

by Danny on Feb 2, 2006 10:15 PM PST reply actions

Ellis is still better than Roberts

according to Dave Pinto's defensive ratings. Although Robert is in the top six in zone rating. Then again, Ellis is the best.

And I think much of Roberts offense was at the beginning of the season when he got off to that blazing start. He had a really bad July and August and that was when you really saw the Orioles fade. Ellis, on the other hand, was mostly consistent offensively throughout the year.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 10:31 PM PST up reply actions

RE: Ellis is still better than Roberts

According to Pinto's numbers (and I trust UZR a good deal more than PZR), Ellis was +12 overall and +6 on GB only (which I think is the better measure, given the Hudson snafu). Utley is at +37 and +16, while Roberts is at +11 and +12, respectively. I don't see Ellis making up the necessary ground (if any) to catch those two guys given their offensive superiority.

Also, I wouldn't exactly call Ellis' year consistent. He hit .277/.335/.359 in 184 AB pre-All Star break and .344/.418/.564 in 250 post-break AB. His September was just silly: .368/.446/.604.

by Danny on Feb 3, 2006 9:56 AM PST up reply actions

Ellis is still better than Crosby.....

Just forget for a moment their names and prior reputations and compare their relative performances last year. Crosby lacked power and was not a consistent clutch hitter. Hopefully, that will change but he has yet to live up to euphoric billing.

by Vegas Ace on Feb 4, 2006 5:31 PM PST up reply actions

Cantu

Where is Jorge Cantu???

June 19th - June 21st, 2006 ** Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies ** Lets Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Feb 3, 2006 11:23 AM PST reply actions

He may not have been the best 2B in the game ...

It's easier to call somebody the best when they have clearly established a high level of play with multiple outstanding years (a la Jeff Kent, mediocre defense notwithstanding). Of course it was a breakout year for Chase Utley as well, but he definitely looked like he is for real (I guess the hitters' park probably didn't hurt either). I guess you could say the same for Brian Roberts, although I think he's had a couple of good years.
Anyway, once he got in the lineup Ellis was terrific last year, obviously, and I for one was OVERJOYED to actually see the A's with a good leadoff man! Of course if he maintains that level then he's an All-Star; but as previously mentioned here, even if he regresses towards his carrer norms, say halfway back to his '03 stats, he'd still be around .280/.350/.420, and with his stellar defense that makes him a "championship-quality ballplayer", as Bill James used to say.
I think he'll do even better than that; he's still fairly young, and stabilizing as a hitter, plus he's shown impressive pop and seems to be learning to work the strike zone pretty well. A throw-in on the Damon trade? Another coup from BB; he's the best second baseman we've had since ... since ... that one year from Velarde? Tony Phillips? Dick Green? Eddie Collins? (hee hee hee, a fan can hope!)

Good pitching beats good hitting. And vice versa.

by TheBigO on Feb 3, 2006 11:29 AM PST reply actions

My 2nd Base Rankings

Ask yourself this question. Who would you want on the A's at 2B out of all the present 2B for the benefit of the present and the future? My answer is this... [factoring age, salary, and projected numbers]

#1 Brian Roberts
#2 Chase Utley
#3 Marcus Giles
#4 Mark Ellis

Who would I want for 1 year if money, age, or racism wasn't a factor?

Jeff Kent

by Instant Replay Umpire on Feb 3, 2006 12:57 PM PST reply actions

I've only got one foot

on the Brian Roberts bandwagon; he still has to prove what he can sustain over time. So my rankings would be:

Utley
M. Giles
Roberts

I think Ellis is a solid and reasonable choice for #4.

by Nico on Feb 3, 2006 7:31 PM PST up reply actions

Don't forget

the gruesome injury that ended Roberts' year. Taken into account, one could easily place Mark Ellis ahead of Roberts in the "future value" column.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 3, 2006 8:35 PM PST up reply actions

For the record, Ellis' 2006 PECOTA forecast

.283/.351/.426/.777 BA/OBP/SLG/OPS. Very good for a second baseman. His defense rating is projected at 126, +7. I don't fully get those numbers but know that league average is 100, 0 and those numbers are VERY good.

Should be a solid year from Ellis.

by dude on Feb 3, 2006 2:49 PM PST reply actions

At least

if he plays a full year we will know that he is not a fluke, 122 games with 13 HR's isn't bad but let's see if he can put those numbers up ina full season.

The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it.-W. M. Lewis

by doublehustle22 on Feb 3, 2006 4:14 PM PST reply actions

Placido Polanco?

Led the league in average last year despite playing most of the season in Comerica. He shuold probably be in the discussion with Utley and Kent (I think ellis is a step behind those three guys).

by Nick86 on Feb 4, 2006 12:53 PM PST reply actions