Stat head or Seamhead?
Hello AN, this is my first diary so don't be too harsh. However, any suggestions or critiques you have for me would be much appreciated.
I saw a thread on another baseball forum (www.cardsclubhouse.com) and thought it would be interesting to discuss here.
Today when you mention the Oakland A's you think of two things...Billy Beane and Statistics. Mostly thanks to Moneyball.
So I was wondering what effect this has had on Oakland Fans. Are most A's fans now stat (sabermetics) freaks like myself, or do many hate the sight of numbers (like most general sports fans)?
I believe like many of you that both factors should be taken into account, but I think this poll will be better if you have to make a choice.
A few questions I have for each group...
Statheads... Were you a fan before the Beane Era? Before Moneyball? What is your opinion on the DePo firing? And finally what are your thoughts of many 'experts' opinions of sabermetric type theories don't work in the playoffs? It seems like Beane thinks the playoffs are just a crapshoot, but the experts disagree.
Seamheads...Besides the above questions, Does Beane/Moneyball annoy you? And who would be your ideal GM?
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skimmed through that thread...
just ask Dave Roberts, Terry Francona, and the '04 Red Sox how important a stolen base is
...I get a little crazy.
Only Beane's insistance that:
Otherwise, I think he is a fantastic GM.
I am the type to generally see a trend with my eyes and then investigate it numerically, than I am to look at numbers all day and draw conclusions solely on those.
For instance, I saw that Cupcakes was not getting his hamhock up high enough early in the year and wrote abote it on here ad nauseum.
That caused him to be off balance and his arm was late. For a control pitcher, in fact, even for a power pitcher that is mechanical suicide.
From my old seats in the opposing team's pen I saw David Wells warm up for his start in Oakland and he was doing the same thing. I told everyone, A's fans, around me about this and sure enough the big fella got rocked for the same reasons.
Without that knowledge all you would have is an impression of his stats and not know why.
Stat and Seam heads are very integral parts of a winning formula.
Oh, yeah, and so are the passionate screaming fans that don't give a hoot as long as the home team wins!!!
by saint on Feb 2, 2006 9:29 AM PST reply actions
Ironically, the unofficial
by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 2, 2006 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Macha is a great manager....
Are you sure that Joe doesn't just:
by saint on Feb 2, 2006 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
Ya know...
This was a hard choice for me to make
Anyway, the reason it was hard for me was because I didn't know which way to lean. I feel like I am pretty dead even. I watch the game with my eyes and back up my personal conclusions with the numbers. Similar to how Saint discribed it.
I enjoy the numbers side of the game and I think it is a vital part of the game. I enjoy looking at them and drawing conclusions about a certain player.
But when you look at those numbers, you then have to turn around and WATCH the play on the field and observe the player to figure out why those numbers are the way they are.
When I watch a game, I am just watching it. I am not thinking about the numbers, persay. I am just enjoying the game. When I am analysing the game after the fact, then the numbers play a major roll.
So my conclusion is that it is a balancing act for me. I like to play both sides and see how they measure up. Baseball is not just about numbers, and it is obviously not just about what you see.
Baseball is a rich game and in order to truly appreciate it, you have to see the whole picture.
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Feb 2, 2006 9:45 AM PST reply actions
If you're a bit of both ...
Either way:
by saint on Feb 2, 2006 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
Freakish Almagation...
I'l be the Richardhead
I followed the team as a Seamhead until the early 90s as cars, chicks, and military life (away from the Bay Area) began to crowd out my interests in baseball. In '99, when I breifly moved back to the area, I intuitively saw that Beane was flipping his over-priced talent for younger, cheaper replenishments. I would have been pissed if it hadn't turned into a sucessful strategy, though. Fortunately I never did get pissed.
About around a year after Moneyball was published (and while I was beginning to study Business and Economics in college after the gen.ed. was out of the way) I began to look at baseball more as a business and less as a fan. The fact that Beane has done more with less resources is what I'm really a big fan of now. Whatever econometric models he uses to accomplish this year after year is something that - I think - fans should learn how to appreciate.
So, I guess that makes me a believer in being a Valuehead to Get-a-head...but not to be mistaken as a Giver-of.
Stathead
I don't think DePo's performance merited him being fired, but we don't know what went on behind the scenes. It could be that his managerial skills were sufficiently lacking.
Sabermetrics is the search for truth in baseball through objective study. As such, saying a sabermetric principle doesn't work in the playoffs is pretty meaningless. The playoffs are a bit different than the regular season in that
- Frontline pitchers will pitch a higher percentage of innings, which means frontline talent is more important and depth is less important than in the regular season.
- Games are, in general, lower scoring. A lower run environment changes the breakeven point of strategies such as stolen bases and sacrifices.
I have yet to see any study showing that the A's were poorly designed to win in the playoffs from 2000-2003. They had incredibly different teams in different years of that run.
As for Beane disagreeing with the "experts," here's what John Schuerholz (who I believe has the best track record of any active GM) has to say:
--------------------
"People who understand the game understand that the true measure of excellence for a baseball team, and the construction of a baseball team, and the strength of a baseball team, is the 162-game season. If you prove yourself over the 162-game season, that's the litmus test that validates what you've done.
"And it's that litmus test that validates Bobby's credentials, more than a happenstance, or a bad hop, or a bad play that happens in a short series. And most people in baseball understand that."
Okay,
by LowcountryJoe on Feb 2, 2006 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
not enough choices in the poll
On Depo:
Not everyone is GM material.
by saint on Feb 2, 2006 11:07 AM PST reply actions
Seamhead
I've been an A's fan since 1998, which coincides with the start of "the Beane era," but that's not why I became a fan. My reasons for becoming a fan actually have nothing to do with baseball philosophy, but with the fact that I "needed" to pick a local team, so I went with the one that had been losing most recently. So I would say that the Beane era is what has caused me to have at least a passing interest in knowing something about stats, not the other way around.
I think Billy Beane has a brilliant baseball mind, not because "he wrote Moneyball" (yes, I know he didn't) or because he "invented" the philosophy Moneyball describes -- but because he has used his intellect & imagination, combined with his own experiences in scouting and formerly as a "can't-miss prospect" who, well, MISSED... and he has put together a consistently successful operation.
As far as that success not yet extending past the first round of playoffs... I think the short Divisional Series is yes, kind of a crapshoot (I have no idea whether there's a statistical basis for this, but I feel that a good team is more likely to have 3 bad games out of 5 than to have 4 bad games out of 7). I also think the fact that the A's have previously lacked depth by the end of the season has had an impact, and has been more a result of low payroll and unlucky timing (injuries, available/affordable free agents or midseason trades, etc). Hopefully this season, the depth we're seeing right now will hold up through OCTOBER, not just barely through September.
I'm sorry, statheads, my eyes would like to see more stealing -- but my head understands & accepts that it won't happen. I'm not so sure I believe the theory that caught-stealings lead to more failure than "complete absence of stealing threat." And the latter seems like something that can't really be calculated.
and my eyes would like to see
But seriously, I really dig smallball as a fan, but over the last few years I have come around to fully believing that it's a good call for the A's to not play smallball. I would personally prefer it if the game moved away from walk and homer contests, but for now, I believe that is the cheapest way to score.
On the issue of flukier things happening in shorter series, I believe it has been shown both by theory and by history. You can look at the blow-by-blow in baseballgirl's first diary:
http://athleticsnation.com/story/2005/10/17/21759/274
(Where did bbg go? What happened to the rest of the diaries?!)
And finally, on the issue of stat v seamhead, I am a pretty mathy guy, but sports is my time off the clock. When I'm watching a game, I prefer to get involved in the personal drama and forget the numbers. When the game's over, I don't mind hashing out what happened with numbers...
"the cheapest way to score"
Stat/Seam
Stathead vs. Seamhead is a false dichotomy. As someone who's been watching baseball as far back as I can remember, and who played ball through high school in the WCAL, there are some elements of human interaction and human nature in baseball that don't show up in numbers. My favorite example of why scouts are ABSOLUTELY necessary is the one of the kid who grew up in a small town, went to a small college in an even smaller town, and was an utterly dominant pitcher all along the way, but when a big league scout finally got a chance to talk to him, discovered that the kid was a nervous wreck who wilted noticeably when even talking about large crowds. Would you take a chance on him?
However, and I know I'm paraphrasing someone more insightful than I am, numbers aren't just numbers; they are a written record of what somebody observed, only written in a specific way. I buy Bill James's notion that baseball statistics and math are a language that can tell us things our subjective impressions are likely to miss. My favorite example of this is that of the insurance company. Do insurance companies direct their employees to primarily use intuition and subjective impressions? No. Of course not. They use actuarial tables.
When I put it all together, on a basic level, I get a kick out of knowing that it's in a hitter's best interest to work the count, and then watching a hitter either flail away or take close pitches. The academic study of the game informs my senses and visceral enjoyment. So, it's a false dichotomy to say that you can divide baseball fans into seamheads and statheads.
by deadteddy8 on Feb 2, 2006 11:55 AM PST reply actions
Totally stats-driven here.
Get 'em young, sign 'em cheap, watch them develop and then smoke other teams for a few years, always remaining under budget - even if you have to let a stud go at his peak in return for prospects.
Granted, the fact that my local minor league team (the Vancouver Canadians) is an Oakland affiliate is what brought me here, but now I see that as serendipity, because no other team in the league would actually give me this much pleasure from the front office sife of things - sometimes even more than the on-field side of things.
Stathead ...
I've been a fan since I was six.
Before Moneyball? Yes, since I was six.
What is your opinion on the DePo firing? He's better off. He never would have really been given the chance to succeed in LA.
And finally what are your thoughts of many 'experts' opinions of sabermetric type theories don't work in the playoffs? One not dropped fly ball, one missed tag, one missed Billy Koch fastball and everything would be different. It's a crapshoot.
Crapshoot
It's not my "lore" ...
Not to mention
by nothinlikethetown on Feb 2, 2006 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
Statheads
by Nick86 on Feb 2, 2006 12:56 PM PST reply actions
stathead as a term undermines ...
My childhood experiences of knowing my owns stats eg batting avg. etc. became interesting as I continued to grow in the knowlege of the game. But the comment about an opposing player such as "he's good" wasn't met with reeling off the numbers. We all saw and knew the most talented players on our team and the others.
Games such as strat-O-matic and especially APBA were very influential in not only enjoying my favorite team but appreciating how their stats were interpreted compared with other teams.
Regarding A's fans over the last 20 years, Sandy Alderson then Billy Beane introduced a "culture" of viewing baseball from a perspective that used statistics as a means to an end. That's one way I've appreciated our A's but at the same time, it hurts a little more when the glaring truth about a particular player or team trend is obvious without any way to correct it. One can get lost in statistics which ultimately are great for trends, but they are in know going to replace the unpredictablility that we commonly see.
For myself, the astute observation during the course of action is something that I enjoy more, because it leads back to the statements I made while growing up such as, "Dang he's good!"
Yes...it annoys me.
However, Micah realizes that statistics are a very useful tool in determining the value of a player, and they should not automatically be discredited by bigots such as Plachke (spelling?) and other fat, obnoxious writers.
Honestly, my ideal GM would be me. A former player who understands the neoances of the game and just has a good natural "feel" for talent, yet at the same time appreciates many of the assets that statistics provide.
by Czech Micah on Feb 2, 2006 2:40 PM PST reply actions
Hey Micah Bowie, howzit goin???
Sounds like you OR Billy Beane would be a good choice. :)
by saint on Feb 2, 2006 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
Not Micah Bowie...
by Czech Micah on Feb 2, 2006 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
So...
by nothinlikethetown on Feb 2, 2006 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
Not really.
by Czech Micah on Feb 2, 2006 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
clarify, please
I
nice first post
I didn't vote because I'm sort of in the middle. Yeah, I'm old-school (or old?), and have been a fan all my life. But I recognize the value of statistical analysis (though I don't think they tell the whole story).
I think both are valuable
Both, but at different times.
I love the rhythm of baseball, the fact that it's not on the clock. I like that it is not a game of constant full-bore excitement, but a game of waiting and intense, quiet concentration, punctuated with moments of wonder and the occasional miracle. Baseball works for me because I have to surrender myself to the game. I can't schedule around it--the game could be under two hours or over four. In my harried, hyper-scheduled, doing-eight-things-at-once life, watching or listening to a game is a critical opportunity to let go, to not be in charge, and to breathe.
Obsessing over stats and making predictions keeps me close to the game I love, but once the game is on, I just want to revel in its unfolding. If I try to analyze it too much as the game is going on, watching the game starts to feel too much like the rest of my life.
YES
My friends who prefer basketball...
All the other labels are temporary...
Crisp double plays, stretching a double from a long single, hidden ball, Mgr getting the heave ho!, all of it! Smell of the grass, crisscross cuts of the grass, G*d on the PA system, a colossal dog!, Strike 3!, a 3-run dinger for the lead!
Learn how to win more than you lose
If you take the game serious like I do you want your team to play to win. This brings you to comparisions of all types. All the comparisions have single purpose, to differentiate that which the winners have and that your team needs to acquire. When you compare Zito to Colon to Big Unit to...on and on. To percieve more clearly how your guys can win,to get an edge.
When you compare Yankees and A's it's not to see who has the larger markets and who has the best money stream, we know those answers before the question is asked. Comparisions are pointed towards competing better & winning more.
Stats and minutae.
The business of MLB is deciphered into every kind of study of minutae. Much more so than any other sport or endeavor short of our military complex. As the quest to win by being better informed manifests you are brought back over and over again to the simple facts that you must score more than your opponent or your opponent must score less than you. A single run past a tie score is all you need in two thirds of your games to enjoy the post season. So what's so hard?
Uncontrollable and assumed.
The A's last year suffered uncontrollable health problems, they lacked this years depth because it was ASSUMED they were simply rebuilding and lacked the ability as a team to challenge better teams.
The A's played 234 games over 2004 & 2005 and missed two years of playoffs by 8 games. How do you correct that problem in a field of ever improving competition? It's only 8 games! That's only 4 more wins per year! ...so what to do?
Eliminating the previous season's issue's
The best possible example I can give is the players that were carried over from 2005 and the players that have been added to those that now make up the 2006 A's roster.
My only permanent label is "A's fan"
by A s Eh on Feb 2, 2006 10:11 PM PST reply actions

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