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Around SBN: Penn State Recruiting Roundup Is Set For A Big Junior Day

Do They Only Scout From A-Y?

Now before you feel compelled to remind me, let me acknowledge that I am fully aware this is an A's blog and not a Yankees blog. It's actually quite easy for me to remember, because the A's are the team I adore and the Yankees are the team I abhor. But the Zito negotiations, from the start, have had me waiting and wondering about the Yankees--and whether it was really possible that they would stay silent to the end.

With the A's, the thought process behind their silence was clear: Zito will command about 1.5 times what we can afford to pay him, so we'll turn our attention elsewhere. But while Zito was wining with the Rangers, dining with the Mets, and signing with the Giants, you just never heard about the Yankees having the slightest bit of interest in making Zito an offer. Which is especially strange in light of the fact that:

*    So far in his career, when his team has scored 4 runs for him Zito has won 95.5% of the time, which statisticians tell me is quite often. The Yankees usually score about 4 runs for breakfast, then head out to the ballpark to consider adding a few more. A nice fit, n'est-ce pas?

*    While lefties may be ill-suited to Fenway Park, they are well matched to the spacious left-center field confines of Yankee Stadium. Even Zito's signature "hanging changeup" is apt to find an outfielder's glove in the Bronx. Heck, the Yankees were so keen on adding left-handed starters that after the Astros took Andy Pettitte, aged him, broke him, and then returned him older, damaged, and without the original receipt, the Yankees took him back anyway. But they never showed any interest in Barry Zito?

What exactly does it take for a pitcher to be deemed worthy by the Yankees? Apparently Al Leiter was good enough, even though the Yankees signed him at a time when Leiter's commentary was far sharper than his slider. Jaret Wright was thought to warrant an expensive contract just in case he figured out, for the first time, how to get major league hitters out. In 2005, the Yankees were prepared to go exactly as far in the playoffs as Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon could take them--and what do you know, it wasn't all that far.

Hmm...A healthy, 28-year old left-hander who will win 19 games every 20 times you give him four runs to work with. And the Yankees declined to share bids with the likes of Texas and San Francisco? Okey dokey then.

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wining, dining, signing
Hey Zito, quit whining!,  Hey Zito, quit making that din with your guitar!,  Hey Zito, put your hands down and use the pen.
rip 2006, it was nice while it lasted.

by ak_A on Dec 29, 2006 8:28 AM PST reply actions  

Nico----
From the New York Daily News (not necessarily the most reputable source, but.......

 "But the Yankees apparently had a last-ditch chance to negotiate with the former Oakland ace. According to a source familiar with the conversation, Zito's father, Joe, called the Yankees and said if the team offered $17 million per year for seven years, his son would like to sign with them. The Yankees declined, the source said."

KGrand

by bigmacattack @ Athletics Nation on Dec 29, 2006 8:36 AM PST reply actions  

Cashman
Cashman likes fastball/slider guys, can't see him ever getting Zito.

by apilgrim on Dec 29, 2006 8:44 AM PST reply actions  

They didn't want that many ex-A's players
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay.

by carp on Dec 29, 2006 8:46 AM PST reply actions  

yeah, they
got burned by the T-Long signing, and they said 'we're not dipping into that well again"
"WTF is wrong with you people TASTELESS COMMENTS. I'm disgusted. Mocking a 10 year old's horrible painful death." --eshock

by rubin sierra on Dec 29, 2006 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

You should find that LaRussa
quote when he called Rubin "the village idiot."  It was classic.
Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay.

by carp on Dec 29, 2006 9:41 PM PST up reply actions  

yup
here it is ... fourth paragraph down
"WTF is wrong with you people TASTELESS COMMENTS. I'm disgusted. Mocking a 10 year old's horrible painful death." --eshock

by rubin sierra on Dec 30, 2006 7:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I think
a lot of it has to do with the perceptions of his mental approach.  In my opinion, Blez was onto something when he mentioned that Zito's propensity to regret "not attacking the strike zone" would go over like a lead balloon with the NY media.  I, for one, have thought all along that Zito pitching in NY is a recipe for disaster.
And Jaret Wright was paid $7 mil a year by the Yankees.  Compared to the $17 mil it would have taken to get Zito, I would consider it relatively inexpensive.  I do agree that the Leiter and Pettite signings are curious in light of the unwillingness to even negotiate with Zito.  It could just be that the Yankees think they can outscore everyone and, with their offense, their starting pitching is good enough.

by IndianaAsfan on Dec 29, 2006 8:47 AM PST reply actions  

Moreover
it would go over like a lead balloon with the rest of the Yankees, who would throw him under an oncoming subway in a heartbeat.

I'd hesitate to say he dodged a bullet, as I don't think the Giants situation is a particularly good one either, Zito on the Yankees had disaster written all over it, in my opinion.

And for what it's worth (probably not much), there were a few rumors in the last couple days that the Yankees were going to pursue Zito if they dealt Randy Johnson.

Kettlecorn! Swishercorn!

by TurnTwo on Dec 29, 2006 9:11 AM PST up reply actions  

The absense of a but
That should be:

I'd hesitate to say he dodged a bullet, as I don't think the Giants situation is a particularly good one either, BUT Zito on the Yankees had disaster written all over it, in my opinion.

Kettlecorn! Swishercorn!

by TurnTwo on Dec 29, 2006 9:12 AM PST up reply actions  

The absence of a but
And so goes my love life.  :(
Storage is for buuuuuusiness or for familyyyyy. We have your space ... 5A RentaSpaaaaace....

by rolliedigits on Dec 29, 2006 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Better too little than too much
Right Kerri?

-Cindi.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 29, 2006 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Ain't no such thing as too much
(L.A. face with the Oakland booty)
"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Dec 29, 2006 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

My anaconda don't want none
unless you got buns hun

by ChucklesSD on Dec 29, 2006 8:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Zito would've been miserable
in New York.  The media would've eaten him alive for his quotes blowing off his particular suckage in a game.  The fans would've come to loathe hearing that same quote over and over again from Zito after one of his bad outings.  The good news for him now is that he doesn't really have to face any lineups as good or as patient as the Yankees and Red Sox.  I think he's going to wind up having a great season next year just because of the drop in quality of lineups he'll face.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 29, 2006 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

You forgot to mention...
He'd need to get a hair cut and always be clean shaven, that's not Zito!

by 66th ave tailgatter on Dec 29, 2006 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't know
This may be unfair, but I get the sense Zito would happily adopt whatever shtick he thinks is necessary to get the attention/fame/whatever it is he's after.  He's morphed at least a few times since his early role as a teddy bear-hugging space cadet.  

by Ray of Lite on Dec 29, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe
The Yankees are one of those organizations that question Zito's ability to retain his current success and believe that he faces a sharp decline.  Flyball pitchers who don't strike guys out and walk a lot of people are historically not successful pitchers.  Zito has managed to put together a good but not great first half of a career, but the Yankees may not believe that that success will continue.  I will be very curious to see how Zito does over the life of this contract, and I could understand a team not wanting to bet $126 million on Zito's future.  
I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Dec 29, 2006 9:28 AM PST reply actions  

After I wrote this
Nate Silver posted a very interesting piece on BP Unfiltered regarding the difference in projections of Zito's value when using Zito's ERA as a predictor (MORP) versus peripheral stats (PECOTA).  Using MORP, Zito is worth $100 million over 7 years.  Using PECOTA, Zito is worth approximately $45 over 7 years.  The Yankees refusal to even bid on Zito tells me that they tend to believe the PECOTA-type projection more.  
I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Dec 29, 2006 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

The Yankees are going in a different direction...
than year's past.
Their moves indicate they are sick of paying luxury tax to help fund their competitor's success.
Everything the Yankees have been doing - the Sheffield trade for elite prospects, preserving their own blue chippers, the avoidandance of middling free agents that would cost them their own draft picks - it all indicates they are operating differently and not as willing to overpay guys who are past their prime.
It's a scary thought - now they are both the wealthiest team and they are being operated with an intelligent approach.
They have the cash to take on salary dumps like Abreu and the smarts to keep their young guys and draft picks.

by notsellingjeans on Dec 29, 2006 9:42 AM PST reply actions  

As the luxury tax escalates...
And the Yankees payroll shows no inflation (they'll be around 200 million again next year, which is remarkable considerating how much salaries have escalated this off-season), they will be giving less and less money to other teams.

by notsellingjeans on Dec 29, 2006 9:50 AM PST reply actions  

95.5%
How many other current pitchers win 95% of their games when their team scores 4+ runs. I'm just interested for the sake of comparisson.

by limecat on Dec 29, 2006 9:50 AM PST reply actions  

it could be because...
I loathe the Yankees even more than Robert E. Lee, so I'm not trying to defend them-- but the signings Nico alludes to weren't actually that horrible. Wright had a good offseason, and he only cost the Yankees $14M guaranteed or something, and they got Leiter, Small, and Chacon for next to nothing. If you're going to point out an area where the Yankees choked, mention Pavano, dude. But even so, Pavano's a $40M investment (loss)-- and it was long expected that Zito would require $100M+ in this ridiculous market. When the Yankees signed Mussina, at least he had some proven success against the AL East. Zito would walk at least 8 Sox per game.

Bottom line: Zito's not that outstanding a pitcher, and he'll be changing his charity to "Walks For Troops" in roughly 2009. The "95.5%" figure is Boras marketing, since it glosses over all those times that Zito got pulled early. If Zito gives up 5 runs, we all know that the A's are incapable of scoring 4 runs by the time he gets the hook.

by stinkycheese on Dec 29, 2006 9:53 AM PST reply actions  

"Wright had a good offseason"
I meant Wright had had a good season before becoming a Yankee, sorry for the mistype. Also, that 95.5 figure was talking about the A's scoring 4 runs for him while he's in the game, correct?

by stinkycheese on Dec 29, 2006 9:55 AM PST up reply actions  

How can anyone
Hate Robert E. Lee?
Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids.

by TexasAsfan on Dec 30, 2006 6:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Good points, Nico...
...I wonder if it wasn't the 'mental' part of his makeup that kept him from New York. Well, that and the fact he never could pitch in Boston. ;)

But, yes, as stadiums and team offenses go, the Yankees were a really good fit for Zito.

Ho hum. Just another day for the OAKLAND ATHLETICS OF AWESOME! ~Kyli

by baseballgirl on Dec 29, 2006 10:06 AM PST reply actions  

I think even the Yankees realized
that Zito is overrated and overpriced.  Not that it hasn't stopped them before, but this case must have been so blatantly obvious to them that they didn't make a real push.

So who did? A team that gave Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, and Dave Roberts multi-year deals.  

by fadedash on Dec 29, 2006 10:12 AM PST reply actions  

15-2
I think the Yankees still remember opening day last year.  I know that I still do.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=260403111

I said then that Barry cost himself a lot of money, although apparently Brian Sabean was watching something else that night.

by david32 on Dec 29, 2006 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

short-term memory
Sadly for A-Rod, the Yankee fans forgot about that "clutch" slam. :)

by stinkycheese on Dec 29, 2006 1:56 PM PST up reply actions  

I knew that was going to happen
Because the situation totally called for him to do that
Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids.

by TexasAsfan on Dec 30, 2006 6:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Jeter would have
hit a five-run HR. While turning in a web-gem for the next half inning.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 30, 2006 6:47 AM PST up reply actions  

No
He would have gotten the webgem while hitting the 5 run HR, and then he would have thrown ARod under the bus for only hitting 4 run HRs.
Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids.

by TexasAsfan on Dec 30, 2006 6:53 AM PST up reply actions  

He would have thrown A-Rod
under the bus with an amazing backhanded flip, causing even the EMT to marvel at Jeter's sexiness while A-Rod bled to death.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 30, 2006 6:56 AM PST up reply actions  

And then the New York fans would have cheered
until Jeter graciously raised his hand for them to stop
Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids.

by TexasAsfan on Dec 30, 2006 7:00 AM PST up reply actions  

As Cashman signed the bus driver,
43 years old with a slight tremor, to a guaranteed four-year, $48 million contract to join the Yankees rotation.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 30, 2006 7:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Quality Starts
My big question is if Z struggled to go 6 or 7 innings in the A.L. with the designated hitter, how valuable is he going to be running up those 100 pitch pitch counts in the 6th inning in the N.L.?

I just suspect the need to lift him for a pinch hitter is going to nullify much of his effectiveness. Yes, he will make his 35 starts and give you 200 innings but once again, how much value will he provide in the big picture when his sky high pitch counts and slow starts will often dictate that he be lifted in the 6th inning of games for a pinch hitter.

by mwhit on Dec 29, 2006 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Just look at starting against the A's
as an example. In a start against Oakland, I would expect Zito to be pretty darn effective--for five innings. He doesn't give up a lot of hits and the A's don't hit for a very high average. Put Oakland down for three hits in five innings, but also three walks, two runs (on a two-run HR on a hanging changeup), and most important of all, 105 pitches.

Zito either lasts 6 innings, or gets yanked in the 6th with a couple runners on (likely leading to an unimpressive line of 5.2 IP, 3ER). Either way, the A's have the 7th inning against a mediocre reliever and the 8th inning against someone not good enough to supplant Armando Benitez.

Final score: 5-3 A's. In the post-game interview, Zito reflects back on his performance and says he realizes he should have challenged the hitters a bit more.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 29, 2006 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

3 walks?
Zito will give up 3 walks in 5 innings to the A's if he's getting his curveball over for strikes consistently or his changeup is fooling anybody. If not, it'll be 5 walks in 3 innings.

by Nate on Dec 30, 2006 1:07 AM PST up reply actions  

i dunno about that
when zito faces the a's, i liken it to zito facing the league for the very first time - you just can't get ready for him until you've actually faced him.  

it's not like these guys have practiced over the past 6 years how to hit a barry zito curveball.  

it's going to take a couple of starts against him before they can gear in on him.  

by fadedash on Jan 1, 2007 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Here's why: The Yankees are stupid...
..but they're not Giants stupid.
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 29, 2006 10:23 AM PST reply actions  

speak the truth 'oz
"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on Dec 29, 2006 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

n'est-ce pas
It's a beautiful day for baseball.

by As Man on Dec 29, 2006 11:09 AM PST reply actions  

You are correct, nescafe?
How sad, considering French was the language I took in high school. Shoulda stuck with Pig Latin.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 29, 2006 11:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Victor Zambrano?
"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Dec 29, 2006 3:20 PM PST reply actions  

Time for new subject.
My morning paper says that the Twin's organization has this  pitcher Loek Van Mil who is 7-foot-1.  I'm nicknaming him the Twin Tower--you heard it here first.

by Salvatore on Dec 30, 2006 5:52 AM PST reply actions  

that's too dangerous a nickname
media would get too much hell for a headline like "Twin Tower explodes"

by vk on Dec 30, 2006 7:12 PM PST up reply actions  

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