Zito Finally Signs - WIIFU?

by Colorado Fan on Dec 28, 2006 6:18 PM PST

So, the Giants land the "Top Free Agent Pitcher" of the 2006-2007 Offseason". Yeah for them. So, WIIFU, you ask...?(What's In It For Us?). Well, as I see it, there are some teams very close to applying the "Win at all Costs" theory over the month of January.

One of those teams is the NY Mets. New York Fans/Media won't put up with another season of mediocre pitching, and they have a ton of question marks in their rotation. Minaya knows it. The Baseball World knows it.

Mets' 2007 Rotation:

Glavine
Hernandez
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey

The other team is the Toronto Blue Jays. Let's be honest: If things go like last season, J.P. Riccardi is on a very short lease in Toronto. They need a couple starting pitchers, and a lot of bullpen help.

Blue Jays 2007 Rotation:

Halladay
Burnett
Chacin
Marcum
Janssen

So, let's take a look at each prospect teams Top 10 List - According to John Sickels (Mets) and Baseball America (Blue Jays):

Mets: Mets Top Ten Prospects - John Sickels

Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and youth, just needs refinement)
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one)
Phil Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)
Carlos Gomez, OF, B (great tools, but I'm not sure about his power)
Jon Niese, LHP, B- (projectable lefty is a personal favorite)
Deolis Guerra, RHP, B- (live arm, a long way away)
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, B- (accidently left off first list)
Joe Smith, RHP, B- (impressive reliever could advance fast)
Mike Carp, 1B, B- (developing power bat to watch)
Alay Soler, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector looks better as a reliever to me than a starter)

Blue Jays: Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

Adam Lind, of
Travis Snider, of
Ricky Romero, lhp
Ryan Patterson, of
Curtis Thigpen, c
Francisco Rosario, rhp
Brandon Magee, rhp
Jesse Litsch, rhp
David Purcey, lhp
Balbino Fuenmayor, 3b

As it stands right now, the A's have a 70+ Million Payroll if they keep the roster they have today. I'm sure they want to be under 70-Million in 2007. Thus, trading arbitration eligible guys like Calero, Duke, Saarloos, Kennedy, etc... could help clear some cash for 2007 and beyond.

Billy Beane covets Non-Prospects, Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman, and Alex Rios. Let's pretend that every Oakland A's pitcher is on the trading block. And, we know that 1-Year of Jason Jennings is worth a Top Organizational Prospect (Hirsch), and 2 Young MLB-Ready Players (Taverez & Buchholtz).

What is 4 Years of Blanton worth? What is 3-4 years of Harden or Haren worth? When Billy Beane says that "Joe Kennedy is now a Starter", does this increase is trade value for teams looking for a #3/#4/#5 Starter?

My guess:

Blanton and Calero,

for,

Milledge, Heilman, and Humber

Billy's phone is Ringing. GM's know that Haren, Blanton, and Harden have all been discussed. Hell, E-Lo looks like a great deal right now. What deal does Billy do in January?

Poll

What Pitcher is Most Likely to Be Traded this Offseason?

Kennedy

7 votes

Saarloos

15 votes

Halsey

11 votes

Calero

9 votes

Duke

3 votes

Haren

0 votes

Harden

3 votes

Blanton

41 votes

Loaiza

11 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

awesome diary cfan

i was thinking along the same lines when i heard zito had signed with the giants. zito signing with the giants, and not the mets, opens the door to a great deal of opportunities for beane.

my feeling is that you can probably remove blanton and insert haren in that trade package.

"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on Dec 28, 2006 6:41 PM PST reply actions

This is a very good diary.

Thanks for putting some work into it. :-)

by IM4Oakgal on Dec 28, 2006 6:53 PM PST reply actions

Denver

I'm in Denver (Blizzards Galore), so I found some free time during the holiday season.

by Colorado Fan on Dec 28, 2006 9:45 PM PST up reply actions

I think the guy that needs to be targeted

is Rios. I dont think he will EVER be as cheap as he is right now. I see a large season coming for him wherever he is.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Dec 28, 2006 7:00 PM PST reply actions

A Rios/Blanton trade

would be interesting in that it would make the A's offense suddenly (potentially) damn good (though it would pretty officially leave no room for Durazo no matter how good he looked in spring training), but it would concurrently make the rotation look awfully questionable.

Yet the offense would not necessarily be great and the rotation would not necessarily be bad--just different question marks in different places, I suppose.

My bottom line, though, if I'm Beane: Until Harden turns in a healthy season, I'm not dealing one of the top 4 starters--at least not without getting another top 4 candidate in return.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 28, 2006 7:09 PM PST reply actions

I'll say it again...

Any trade that has Heilman as a major part of it is likely to be a bad trade. (Unless the trade is Kennedy for Milledge and Heilman, but that is obvious :) )

Heilman is no better than Kennedy, regardless of what BB says through the media.

by chri5 on Dec 28, 2006 7:38 PM PST reply actions

One problem

This trade proposal is so one sided that you can just remove Heilman from it, and Humber/Milledge is still a nice return for Kiko and Blanton. Add Heilman, and we're getting one helluva deal.

by SeanR on Dec 28, 2006 8:10 PM PST up reply actions

oops

Did not realize Humber is injured. Without knowing the exacts on that, this deal isn't looking so one-sided anymore...

by SeanR on Dec 28, 2006 8:33 PM PST up reply actions

Omar Minaya

Minaya is doing his best post Vlad signing Bill Stoneman impression.

by apilgrim on Dec 28, 2006 7:46 PM PST reply actions

There is no way BB trades Haren....

This guy us a horse. With the departure of Zito and the unpredictable health of Harden we can't afford to lose a high quality #2 starter. Even if we deal Blanton we are screwed and have a lack of inning eaters. Can we trust Kennedy to give us 180+? Not after two years in the pen we can't. Our only chance to be productive is to add and not subtract. Windsor looks like a AAAA guy, Komine looks like a AAA guy and none of us want to see a Halsey/Sarloos combo all season. Cupcakes looks like a solid #4 and is cheap for a long time. E-Lo is the only guy I would deem expendable, we still owe him 14 mill and although he had a solid second half he's no spring chicken.

by jjham15 on Dec 28, 2006 8:00 PM PST reply actions

Harden

So, why not trade the "unpredictable health" that comes with Rich Harden? If Harden gives you a future #2 (Pelfrey) + L. Milledge, you have to do it...don't you?

by Colorado Fan on Dec 28, 2006 9:47 PM PST up reply actions

actually...

i wouldn't trade harden for milledge and pelfrey...starting pitching w/ harden's stuff and potential is rare...plus it would be foolish to trade him now when is value to other teams is low...we know what he is capable of and other teams dont know this as well, milledge and pelfrey are overated also

by AthleticsFanatic4ever on Dec 29, 2006 1:31 AM PST up reply actions

its also rare

for harden to pitch. which is rarer a pitcher with harden's stuff or harden actually taking the mound? it would be a big risk/reward deal with the a's not getting full value is harden suddenly became unbreakable but would get more value if harden continues to getting hurt.

by methodrampage on Dec 29, 2006 7:31 AM PST up reply actions

Harden health

I'm wondering if Harden's elbow is going to require surgery like Liriano et. all

by apilgrim on Dec 29, 2006 2:30 AM PST up reply actions

Calero

I don't think the A's can afford to trade a starter. I'd say Calero's trade value is very high right now considering he's earning under a million and someone like Danys Baez is signing for 7 million a year.

A Calero for Lind trade would be awesome but where does he fit in?

by pinkfloyd @ Athletics Nation on Dec 28, 2006 8:23 PM PST reply actions

i think...

haren and haren can't be traded or we drastically lessen or chances at the division, but blanton...is possibilty if and only if we get a good enough return...a good enough return might be Alexis Rios and Ricky Romero

by AthleticsFanatic4ever on Dec 28, 2006 8:44 PM PST reply actions

typo^

my bad...i meant harden or haren, not haren and haren lol

by AthleticsFanatic4ever on Dec 28, 2006 8:44 PM PST up reply actions

E-Lo and Calero plus prospect for Rios?

how about something like Esteban and Calero and robnett for Rios?

Does that seem fare? A solid middle of the rotation guy to replace Lilly, Calero to replace Spier and Robnett in a year or 2 to help in the outfield.

Sounds fare to me?

thoughts?

by Bud Light on Dec 28, 2006 8:50 PM PST reply actions

if toronto's willing

i would pull the trigger...and BB probably would

by AthleticsFanatic4ever on Dec 28, 2006 9:24 PM PST up reply actions

The problem with trading Harden and Blanton

Is they are both coming off down years and their value is not as high as it could be.

I'm not sure we Rios is a good target from the A's frame of baseball.
Hes got a 3 year career bb vs. k line of 94bb to 274k. He hasnt demonstrated alot of power for a corner outfielder, he's got 1357 AB and 28 HRs.

450 ab a season, his high was 17 last year -his all star season.

I'd say thats a power downgrade from both Bradley, and Swisher and he isn't a platoon player with power like a Kietly. He would be a defensive upgrade, but is it worth given up a starting pitcher for someone who probably wouldnt be much of an upgrade for us? The main argument for picking up Rios would be Kotsay/Bradley's injury history. If that's the case, I would be in favor of giving up nothing and bringing up Travis Buck.
We would need a pitching prospect, Rios alone isn't enough. Adam Lind is.

by apilgrim on Dec 28, 2006 10:18 PM PST reply actions

rios doesn't have to be an upgrade

over swisher or bradley. he has to be an upgrade over DJ. Plus he'd be playing a corner outfield position for part of a year before replacing kotsay. who else on this team is going to hit .300+ next year?

by methodrampage on Dec 29, 2006 7:36 AM PST up reply actions

Domino Effect?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/29/SPGTDN9REP1.DTL

"Then, there's the possible domino effect of Zito's signing. The Mets were one of the top candidates for his services -- so New York remains in need of another starter. There's little doubt the Mets have interest in some of the A's young pitchers, and should they finally decide to part with outfielder Lastings Milledge and one or two of their promising young pitchers (Aaron Heilman, John Maine or Mike Pelfrey), it's possible that New York would offer a better package for Joe Blanton. (New York's first choice would be Haren, but to get that trade done, one major-league executive speculated recently, "the Mets would have to back up the truck.'')"

I would guess that Blanton being traded is 50/50 - There is no way Haren gets traded.

And for those who think you should should trade Blanton when his trade value his high... He had 16 wins last season + 4 years before he hits FA. I fear his value is as high as it will be... RIGHT NOW. If he has an identical ERA as last season, he'll no doubt have fewer wins, and 1 less year remaining.

Haren
Harden
Loaiza
Kennedy
Pelfrey

Kendall
Swisher
Bradley
Piazza
Chavez
Crosby
Milledge
Kotsay
Ellis

by Colorado Fan on Dec 29, 2006 9:34 AM PST reply actions

MLB Trade Rumors

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/12/whats_plan_e_fo.html#comments

by Colorado Fan on Dec 29, 2006 9:41 AM PST up reply actions

Man ...

if we could get that haul for Blanton, I'd personally drive him to the airport.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Dec 29, 2006 10:09 AM PST up reply actions

LOL!!!

I like the "back the truck" comment.

Just as an intellectual exercise, what would it take to part with Haren?

Milledge
Carlos Gomez
Pelfrey
Humber (Is he healthy?)

Anyone else on the Wish List?

If Omar came to the table willing to part with all 4 of those guys (and maybe more?) it would certainly behoove one to listen.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 29, 2006 10:51 AM PST up reply actions

Heilman ...

he'd be a great guy to have around for a couple of years until they younger guys get their sea legs, before we flip him for some more young guys. I couldn't imagine Minaya offering up all four of them, though, or Billy Beane managing to say with a straight face that he needed just a little bit more to make it happen.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Dec 29, 2006 10:58 AM PST up reply actions

David Wright would be nice too ...

or Jose Reyes ...

Read my latest articles

by devo on Dec 29, 2006 10:59 AM PST up reply actions

I thought asking for Wright would be pushing it

Interesting story here, saw it linked in the DLD but I brought it over here just for you!

http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkxMTQmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTcwNDY 2NTAmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2

(Supposedly) Minaya offered Heilman+Milledge for Harden.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 29, 2006 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

I would make that deal

even though it would likely set the A's back for 2007 in terms of starting pitching. It would be a big surprise if either Humber or Pelfrey is ready to be a full-time starter in 2007, but very likely that one or both could be big contributors in the 2008 rotation. IMHO, of course.

MJB

by MJB on Dec 29, 2006 12:42 PM PST up reply actions

Here's a question...

Is Harden ready to be a full time starter in 2007?

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 29, 2006 1:48 PM PST up reply actions

That's a good question

if you're talking about dealing Haren to the Mets, and Harden's durability is, shall we say, not quite at the level of Zito, then a deal like that could really make the A's rotation thin in 2007. It would probably mean that the team leader in innings pitched, the effective #1 starter in 2007, would be Loaiza.

MJB

by MJB on Dec 29, 2006 5:10 PM PST up reply actions