Kennedy Start? How about Duke?

by MoneyManWilliam on Dec 21, 2006 7:47 PM PST

Before someone says "he's too valuable as a relief pitcher"(echoing what either Beane or Macha once said...i do forget) - think about it. Duke was a starter throughout the minors, and I'm guessing he would like the chance to start again. With starting pitching overvalued this offseason, we could potentially give Duke 5th starter role and then trade him next season.

What do you think? Personally, I'd rather have Duke pitch over Kennedy.

A note about Kennedy - i think he should really remain a lefty specialist. I think that Kennedy will fail as a starter due to his lack of success vs. right handed batters. Over the course of the last 3 years, right handed batters are hitting .297 against him, with an OBP of .367 and a .462 SLG. (this is compared to .237/.302/.361 vs lefties). (source: ESPN)

It is interesting to note, however, that Kennedy reversed this trend in 2006, with righties posting 220/.304/.275 against him and lefties hitting .326/.370/.465. - this of course in only 35 innings.

Either way, its a gamble for both pitchers.

~Will

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Duke

Duke is an all star in the penn. Kennedy would only be a second rate reliefer

I am a sports writter.

by scottofchico on Dec 22, 2006 12:02 AM PST reply actions

all-stars

An all-star in the rotation is worth a whole bullpen full of all-stars.

If you look at VORP for pitching, you have to go past 36 starters before you get to a reliever. If Duke could be the 36th best starter, he would be more valuable than the best reliever in baseball.

Note that VORP doesn't take leverage into consideration, so that's likely exaggerated, but it's still worth thinking about.

by MrIncognito on Dec 22, 2006 12:33 AM PST up reply actions

Logic:

Relievers control 486 innings (3 x 162 games)
A Starter MAY control 195 innings (972/5 starters)

Relievers = 32%
A Starter = 13%

If you are budgeting investments do you help or hinder your team by paying a single pitcher such as Zito $17 million and then trotting out three pitchers that are 1 season removed from the minor leagues to finish his games?

The end of the game is when the opponent pulls all stops out for the offense to take the lead so this is when the pitching must be capable to handle all hitters and take over the game.

I notice the third time through a lineup is when hitters catch up to even the best starters. Inadequate pens can destroy leads, a solid rotation, and entire season. Remember Dotel, Rhode, etc.?

Using VORP with starters and relievers mixed together can lead to illogical conclusions. VORP is more meaningful when applied to players of a like position: All Center Fielders, all DH's, all starters, all closers, all middle relievers, etc.

by A s Eh on Dec 22, 2006 10:04 PM PST up reply actions

hrm

We've had this discussion two or three times this offseason.

It usually ends up being a debate about Duke's back problems, and if he would be more likely to have problems if he started and got more rest between throwing, or pitches more often but fewer innings.

by MrIncognito on Dec 22, 2006 12:28 AM PST reply actions

I posted a similar sentiment about a month ago....

....and I think the general consensus was the Duke was better in the 'pen. However, I'm personally totally in agreement with you. I live in Sacramento and got to Duke pitch a few times for the River Cats and he was a great starting pitcher here. I beleive he won 14 games, the AAA equivalent of a 20-game winner. I understand why they first banished him to the bullpen, because it was still the days of the Big Three and I was just happy they got a roster spot for him in the bigs. However, his role has always been a bit bizarre- long relief, middle inning specialist and back up closer- and doesn't do a pitcher of his talent and quality justice. If the choice is between him and "Bazooka Joe" in the rotation I'd take the Duke any day of the week!

by may7 on Dec 22, 2006 10:33 AM PST reply actions

I think Duke's role does him perfect justice

It shows how incredibly valuable he is to our team in that he can come in in so many different roles and be dominant at each of them. I would rather keep the back end of our 'pen stabilized and give one of the younger guys a shot (specifically Windsor) before resorting to putting Duke back in the rotation.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Dec 22, 2006 7:01 PM PST up reply actions

Innings comparisons:

Duke
'06 55
'05 85
'04 96
'03 16 = his last start

Kennedy
'06 35
'05 152
'04 162
'03 133

Haren
'06 223
'05 217

Duke & Kennedy may be incapable of a starters innings. Duke has physical drawbacks that limit his outings and innings. Kennedy I can't speak to other than both are big pluses in the bullpen.

by A s Eh on Dec 23, 2006 10:23 PM PST reply actions