Decision Day Looms for Zito

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 19, 2006 9:40 AM PST in News

Somewhere down I-5 Barry Zito and Scott Boras will soon be sitting down with Omar Minaya to discuss whether or not Zito will be a New York Met.

There are various reports that the Mets claim that they will not go above five years for Zito. Something tells me that if a guy is willing to get on a plane and fly 3,000 miles that they might be a little more willing than you'd think.

But it really got me to thinking, and forgive me if I harp on this Zito thing he's been one of my favorites for a long time, should we be rooting for Zito to wind up in the National League? Or would you like to face him pitching for the Rangers in the division and see him on a regular basis?

Here is something that could play into the equation for me...

During his career, Zito has won an astounding 95.5 percent of the games in which Oakland scored at least four runs for him and was 15-0 last year in such games for the light-hitting A's (and 16-0 when they scored three or more runs).

The Rangers offense will often score more than four runs, so does that mean Zito would be headed for 35-0 if he signed with Texas? Not necessarily because you have to imagine that even though Zito's career stats are very good in Arlington, he would take a hit pitching in that ballpark even if some make the case that he could possibly be Kenny Rogers II: Electric Bugaloo.

Looking at this, I think Rangers management sees, in Zito, a younger, better version of the guy considered to be The Perfect TBIA Pitcher...the Gambler, Kenny Rogers. In 2005, 27.5% of balls in play against Rogers by righties were flies, and in 2004, the number was 28.2%...numbers that correspond neatly to Zito. Like Rogers, Zito walks more guys than you'd like, doesn't strike out as many as you'd like, but has shown a knack for knowing how to manage his performance, and when and how to pitch to contact.

It's a compelling case, and it could also explain why Zito had the success he did in Arlington.

Regardless, the truth is that I don't want Zito anywhere near our division. I don't see him wanting to go to Texas, but to me the main question is whether the Mets want Zito badly enough to extend their offer past five years. If they don't, I don't see Barry turning down the Rangers offer. And if he becomes Rogers reincarnated, imagine all the grumbling we're going to hear every time he beats the A's.

Omar, I have one wish this Christmas, please, please bring Barry back to New York with you. Cause I don't want to find out if Arlington is that favorable for crafty lefties.

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Comments

I can't believe you used 'irregardless' when

'regardless' means the same thing.

I hope Zito ends up a Giant so he's in the NL and so we can still watch him and keep close tabs on his performance. Failing that, any other NL team will do, I don't want to root against the guy!

And happy belated birthday, Big Guy.

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Dec 19, 2006 9:44 AM PST reply actions

Grammar police alert

Thanks for the birthday wishes. It was a great one this year despite my "advanced" age ;-)

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 19, 2006 9:48 AM PST up reply actions

We're on patrol

"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 19, 2006 9:55 AM PST up reply actions

I absolutely want him in the NL.

We can wear our "that Texas ballpark will kill him" rose-colored glasses all we want, but it won't change the fact that Zito is an above-average pitcher. Texas getting better=not good.

"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 19, 2006 9:51 AM PST reply actions

Agree 100%

Took the words out of my mouth

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Dec 19, 2006 10:00 AM PST up reply actions

Plus, we'd get to watch him hit every 5th day

Providing off-the-charts comedy value.

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 19, 2006 10:04 AM PST up reply actions

off the charts?

I thought the previous day's starting pitcher had to track all humorous pitcher ABs.

Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 19, 2006 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

Not to the Mets

I don't want to see Zito go tot he Mets. If the Mets miss out on Zito that means that in desperation to get a starter they are more likely to start thinking about a Harden/Blanton for Milledge and Pilfrey trade. The A's desperately need a GOOD new young starter and power bat now that Zito and Thomas are gone, that the Mets would be the best place to get them at the moment.

Let Zito go to the Giants, we need the Mets desperate and ready to give the A's anything they ask for to get a starter.

by Threepwood XX on Dec 19, 2006 10:03 AM PST reply actions

Exactly...

my thinking as well, also keep in mind that the A's would get Texas' #1 pick in the next draft, while if he signs with the Met's they would just get sandwhich picks later on in the draft.

by Miggy on Dec 19, 2006 10:06 AM PST up reply actions

Urban on KNBR now...

saying the Giants will make a big push for Zito. I can't see how they can compete with the money the Rangers will be throwing at him or the limelight that the Mets offer, but Mychael is telling us that the Giants are flying under the radar and might end up with another Barry on the squad in 2007.

"When I got injured, I felt disrespected. Waaannnh!" - Mark Kotsay

by FoolshGame22 on Dec 19, 2006 10:04 AM PST reply actions

he also mentioned that the Giants

offer is more than $100 million. Wow! I think some team is going to regret that.

by china bob on Dec 19, 2006 10:51 AM PST up reply actions

I think structuring Bonds' contract

would give the SF Giants the flexibility.

Zito already has a residence in San Francisco, so at minimum he has an "intangible" (if Boras even considers his clients' mental condition!!)

So I see the Giants winning the battle, if Bonds defers almost all until 2010+. That would do him well, as he could pass Aaron and reap endorsement $$$ if he has a low current year contract, and the Giants could conceivably get to the WS.

Rename Fremont to Philadelphia, and all's well.

by One won lost won on Dec 19, 2006 5:46 PM PST up reply actions

I think it would be best for the A's if Zito went

Wait for it...to TX! We get the best draft pick possible at 16. The Mets then panic and overpay for pitching. They could have Blanton today for Milledge and Heilman, but after Zito signs with TX it could take more.

If the Mets sign Zito our draft compensation falls to the second round pick, due to Alou's crazy rating. Beane would be less comfortable trading pitching to TX. And TX has less of what we want.

Sure Zito would make TX better, but not good enough. At least not this year. Maybe by 2008/9 when a couple of their hot pitching prospects reach the show. Until then they will continue to chase those teams with pitching, namely the A's and Angels, losing games 5-6.

by Hang Man on Dec 19, 2006 10:18 AM PST reply actions

Draft Compensation

The 16th pick instead of the 40th or whatever it will be is worth having to face Zito 3 or 4 times a year for 5 years?

I don't think so.

by fadedash on Dec 19, 2006 10:27 AM PST up reply actions

It's more then that.

We'd get more then just the picks because the Mets desperately need another starter. It would be very likely that Zito to the Rangers could also land us Milledge and Pilfrey for Harden or maybe Blanton.

Now 6 years of Milledge, Pilfrey, and a the 2007 16th draft pick for facing Zito 5 times a year...I'd take that.

by Threepwood XX on Dec 19, 2006 10:31 AM PST up reply actions

No way in hell

they deal Pelfrey in a deal to get Blanton.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Dec 19, 2006 10:48 AM PST up reply actions

Jennings

Did you see what the Rockies got in return for 1-Year of Jason Jennings.

Hirsch was rated as the best pitching prospect in the Astro Organization as of last offseason. Plus, they rec'd Buchholtz and Tavares - MLB Ready Talent.

http://htownsports.blogspot.com/2006/02/baseball-america-astros-top-10.html

I don't think Pelfrey is out of the question, especially when the team receiving Blanton gets 4-Years of Blanton, on the cheap!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 19, 2006 11:03 AM PST up reply actions

Milledge

Can someone convince me he's worth one of our pitchers? Most mets fans I know are down on him.

"Oakland has a way of bringing out the joy in the game." NYT, 9/22/06

by SportySpice @ Athletics Nation on Dec 19, 2006 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

Most Dodgers fans were down on Bradley.

Most White Sox fans, down on Thomas.

We have a habit of turning those guys around.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 19, 2006 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

Those guys?

What are "those guys"? And how does Milledge fit in with them?

It's not like Bradley and Thomas were lacking talent or a drive for the game. They simply didn't get along with their ownership. The talent and production was always there.

The same cannot be said for Milledge, seeing as how he hasn't even played a full season in the bigs.

by fadedash on Dec 19, 2006 12:53 PM PST up reply actions

"Those guys" are guys that have a rep..

..for both potential and trouble, and who haven't had a big season in plenty.

I'll tell you now, you give me Milledge for Zito straight up, I'll take it. That kid will be a monster, if someone can get his head on right.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 20, 2006 12:33 PM PST up reply actions

Well of course we'd take Milledge for Zito

since Zito isn't ours.

Would you have done that deal at the deadline though?

by fadedash on Dec 20, 2006 12:49 PM PST up reply actions

I'd have asked for another pitcher to be added...

...but yeah.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 20, 2006 12:53 PM PST up reply actions

According to this, we are in talks with the Jays

for Alex Rios

Alex Rios On The Block
ESPN's Buster Olney reports in his blog that the Blue Jays are willing to trade right fielder Alex Rios, who turns 26 in February. The Blue Jays are in search of one more quality starter to pair with Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, and perhaps Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum. It's a necessity in the AL East.

Back in 2004, Baseball America ranked Rios sixth among all prospects, between Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui. Rios earned a promotion to Toronto without mastering Triple A, and his growth kind of stagnated for two years. He played some center field while Vernon Wells was out, and also served as the leadoff hitter for a while.

Before the breakout, many teams tried to pry Rios away. The Nats talked about a Rios for Nick Johnson deal in December of 2004. You can bet Jim Bowden would love him in CF, but doesn't have the goods for a trade. In the winter of '05, the Rangers were offering Kevin Mench for Rios while the Nats countered with Brad Wilkerson.

The much-awaited breakout happened this year, as Rios mashed at .330/.383/.585 for 270 ABs leading up to his June 29th leg injury (staph infection). He returned on July 28th and hit .261/.297/.411 thereafter. It was an ugly couple of months but he did bounce back in September.

Some projections for '07:

Ron Shandler: .293/.337/.500
Bill James: .286/.336/.442

On his glovework, The Fielding Bible wrote:

"Rios is an excellent defender, a five-tool player with outstanding range and speed and a strong, accurate arm suited for right field. The Jays would love to switch him to center field where he is a better offensive fit, but they have a Gold Glover in Vernon Wells entrenched there."

With Ichiro now in center, Rios may be baseball's best defensive RF.

Olney mentions a few trade possibilities: to the Dodgers for Brad Penny, to the A's for Joe Blanton, or to the Mets for a package of young guys. Olney didn't bring up the White Sox, but there could be an excellent fit. The Sox could use Rios in center in 2007, and perhaps shift him back to right in '08 if Jermaine Dye leaves.

by sactownbull on Dec 19, 2006 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

Gosh I hope so ...

Rios is, by far, the best available player -- especially considering service time and salary.

Joe Blanton may turn out to be a quality #3 starter for a long time. He's certainly an as good/better bet than any of the starting pitchers in the A's system. I wouldn't be quick to trade him.

But Blanton and (Halsey or Gaudin or Calero) for Rios might work out -- and I think, based on need, it would be a win-win for the A's and Jays.

by Eck on Dec 19, 2006 10:45 PM PST up reply actions

I agree, it works for both teams

I'm hearing some Jay fans calling for Harden or Haren in return. That I wouldn't be so hot on. But I'm more than in favor of the A's moving Blanton for the type of punch Rios would give them.

by sactownbull on Dec 20, 2006 8:49 AM PST up reply actions

I do think so

The A's should match up very well against Zito. They tend to mash pitchers with control problems.

It would make me very happy to see Texas outrageously overpay for Zito.

by MrIncognito on Dec 19, 2006 10:39 AM PST up reply actions

NL

Zito should go NL, Mets would be a good choice.

Phils/Braves/Marlins/Nationals were a combined 85-96 against left handed starting pitching-47% win percentage. Thats 76 games against sub .500 teams.

The Angels/Rangers/Mariners were 71-68 vs. LHP starters.

If he goes to Texas:
A's/Angels/Mariners were 72-63 against LH starters.

I know its an oversimplification, but if your the Mets, how could you not want Zito?

by apilgrim on Dec 19, 2006 10:30 AM PST reply actions

Money aside

If you're ANYONE, how could you not want Zito?

"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 19, 2006 10:40 AM PST up reply actions

Mets bad choice

The A's will only get a sandwitch pick if Zito goes to mets... Alou was one of only free agents rated higher than Zito and he already signed with the Mets.

by MrIncognito on Dec 19, 2006 10:40 AM PST up reply actions

best for Zito

I was thinking of the best situation for Zito.

The move from 40 to 16 is a big jump and would help, but likely whoever we pick won't be able to help us for 3 years (if a college player) or 4-5 years (if its a prep pitcher). The best thing about the Mets not getting Zito is that the Mets will probably be looking to trade for a pitcher. Could be Leiber, Buehrle, Blanton or Penny. No guarantees we will be the benefactor. All of those guys are on the trading block and I think Kenny Williams would move Buehrle for a Pelfrey/Milledge or Heilman/Milledge.

Besides, I like Blanton's stuff, I think he's got a few big seasons in him and has and will do a good job for us.

by apilgrim on Dec 19, 2006 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

Not quite.

There might be other pitchers on the block, but remember...with Gaudin and Embree in our pen Calero is also expendable. Giving the Mets an elite setup man might be enough to get the job done.

I could see a (Harden/Blanton and Calero) for (Milledge, Heilman/Main, and Pilfrey/Humberto) trade happen, and with good bullpen arms in short supply it might be hard for another team to match us. (On a side note I'd rather see Harden traded before Blanton because he costs more and spends too much time on the DL.

by Threepwood XX on Dec 19, 2006 12:43 PM PST up reply actions

I don't care where Barry ends up

'cause he's not going to be pitching in Green and Gold any more. That means the A's are going to face him at some point, be it 5 times a year vs. Texas or twice in the World Series vs. the Mets.

At this point, the best thing for the A's is if Barry ends up with a team that will have to give up its 1st round pick in the 2007 draft. That team isn't the Mets and it isn't the Giants.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 19, 2006 12:11 PM PST reply actions

Zito should go to Tampa.

I know he won't, but if you're asking where I'd send him, that's where.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 19, 2006 12:15 PM PST reply actions

Maybe I'm dreaming

but I can't see Barry wanting to pitch against his friends, ex-teammates and Oakland fans. I honestly think that he will not sign with the Angels or Rangers for just that reason. He's carrying too much baggage from his years in Oakland. I think he wil wind up with the Giants or Mets. I'd bet on New York because it's a pitcher's park like the Coliseum.

by Peter in Montreal on Dec 19, 2006 1:17 PM PST reply actions

That's Funny

Zito: "Sorry Jon Daniels, I can't accept your $110 Million Offer because I don't want to pitch against my old mates. Thanks for your time. Goodbye".

by Colorado Fan on Dec 19, 2006 2:10 PM PST up reply actions

Washington

is his friend too. But I still think that Barry goes Mets...He wants to be a "celebrity" and he can get that kind of exposure in the big Apple.

by IM4Oakgal on Dec 19, 2006 3:58 PM PST up reply actions

Mets pal

A close buddy is a HUGE Mets fan. He has been gushing about Zito since the All-Star Break. I'd like to see Barry go to the Rangers just to shut this guy up.

by slobberknocker on Dec 19, 2006 2:14 PM PST reply actions

Funny what bad things you'll wish on a friend...

sometimes, isn't it?

"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Dec 19, 2006 2:44 PM PST up reply actions

I'd prefer the Mets

I like Zito and would like to continue to like Zito. I'd therefore not like to ever have to root against him (as would be the case regularly if he ends up in Texas) or continue to read the Chronicle staff scrutinize his failures (which would be the case if he ended up in SF). As a Met I'll be able to enjoy his successes and ignore his failures.

Zito: You ever think about the space time continuum?
Huddy: Uh... no.

by mendelbob on Dec 19, 2006 3:16 PM PST reply actions

I really

wanted him to go to the Dodgers, since I live down here and I'm a Dodger fan I could still see his amazing curveball (and laugh when he has to hit haha), and I wouldn't have to worry about him pitching against the A's (unless they both got to the World Series... but I'm pretending that won't happen ever again for my own sanity)

But since that is obviously not an option, I think the Mets would be a good fit for him. I know everyone is bitching about getting higher picks for him if he goes to Texas, but just because you have a higher number is no guarantee you're going to get a better player...

I'd rather him go to the Mets because the A's won't have to face him (regularly), the teams within the A's division won't get stronger (right now), and he can be in the spotlight of a big city like he's always wanted to.

I dunno just my opinion.

"I never saw a hooligan I did like. They're like left-handed pitchers, they all have a screw loose somewhere." - The Asphalt Jungle

by drmmerchk on Dec 19, 2006 4:53 PM PST reply actions

Something to consider

if Zito ends up with the Rangers.

Sure he has a good record in Arlington, but why? As I see it, it's like this; the Arlington 'Jet stream' is out toward the right power alley, left centre is where fly balls go to die. Zito, last year anyway was a fair bit worse against lefties (almost .5 higher HR/9) than righties. Texas only had two guys who hit with power from the left side, and one of them (Teixeira) is a switch hitter! Tex and Blalcok have combined to hit 2 (two) home runs of BZ in 4 years! And I'm not even sure if they were in Arlington or Oakland. Had Teixeira had the insight to have hit against Zito from the left side I suspect that number would have been higher.

Get Swish and Milton to hit lefty against Zito in Texas, and along with Chavez we'll 'moida da bumb', and get a higher draft pick!

For me, Zito to Texas is probably the best option.

by galraen @ Athletics Nation on Dec 19, 2006 9:07 PM PST reply actions

You should really

read Blez's link to Lonestarball before you post.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 20, 2006 1:22 AM PST up reply actions

Why?

I checked that site after reading you responce, and their analysis actually backs up what I said. What that sites post ignored is that Texas only had one lefty with power facing Zito, and so their analysis is skewed. Put more power lefties, or righties with opposite field power (Vlad for example) in the line-up against Zito in Texas and he'll get lit up.

by galraen @ Athletics Nation on Dec 20, 2006 9:40 AM PST up reply actions

Because

"In response, it is worth pointing out that you are going to have a lot of variability in the lefty performance against Zito, since so few lefty hitters actually hit against Zito. In 2006, for example, there were 32 fly balls hit by lefties against Zito, total. And of those 32 fly balls, only 4 went to right field...so even on the rare occasions when a lefty faces Zito, if he gets the ball in the air, he isn't pulling it, making the jet stream a lot less of an issue for Zito.

But while lefties hit fly balls the other way against Zito, righthanders appear to pull just about everything against him...in 2006, righthanders hit 75.7% of ground balls to the left side, 33.8% of fly balls, and 50% of line drives, versus 16.7% of grounders, 24.8% of flies, and 16.7% of line drives to right. In 2005, it was similar, with righties having a 63.3/22.6% left/right split on grounders, 36.6/28.6% split on flies, and 53.2/22.3% split on line drives. (And yes, none of those numbers add up to 100%...the remaining percentage are balls to the center of the field)."

THe problem isn't as simple as - Texas didn't have any lefty power. The problem originated from the fact that it is exceeding difficult for lefties to pull pitches against Zito.

Also, during the course of Zito's career in Oakland, Texas has had at one time or another - Ivan Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Teixeira, Michael Young, Carlos Lee, Hank Blalock and Brad Wilkerson - all of whom are good to great hitters. The righties on that last are pretty adapt at going the other way. It is foolish to assume that the Oakland lineup can do what none of these players have been able to do - hit Zito in TExas.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 20, 2006 10:16 AM PST up reply actions

What about Mariners, Angels or Giants?

Texas might not be the only place in the AL West that is in the hunt for Zito. The rumors keep insisting that Seattle and the LA Angels are still in the running for him and he could pose just as much a threat to the A's in either of these locales. Ditto for the Giants, who are also reportedly in the running, since the A's see more of them in interleague play than any other NL team.

by may7 on Dec 20, 2006 9:47 AM PST reply actions

No one I LIKE shall sign with a team I DON'T like

It's a cardinal rule of sports. The ultimate treachery (besides undermining an organization from within, but we're not talking about the club on Harbor Bay Parkway).

As with the Raiders and the Lakers, I hate to see a favorite player of mine go to a team to which I wish for NOTHING but perpetual injury and defeat.

Zito to NL, or else he's no longer cool.

by THRO on Dec 20, 2006 2:18 PM PST reply actions

GOD Zito, just sign with the Mets already!

Comparisons: 3B: David Wright vs. Pedro Feliz vs Hank Blalock: No competition-> Mets! SS: Jose Reyes vs Omar Vizquel vs Michael Young -> Offense plus defense = Mets! CF: Beltran vs Finley vs N/A -> Mets! The list goes on! Shea is a pitchers park, Delgado, New York is New York, Delgado, Rick Petersen, etc etc ad nauseum.

Let's GO OAKLAND!!!

by OaktownRajah on Dec 20, 2006 10:41 PM PST reply actions