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SABERMETRICIANS AND MONEYBALLERS MORE OF A THREAT TO GAME THAN STEROIDS

Baseball is immortal, isn't it?

The intrinsic beauty and balance of the game--played in a 90 ft, 9 inning, 9 man, 27 out perfect world--has always sustained it in tough times.

Seemingly undaunted by the ills of real life, including the constant waves of gambling and booze and performance enhancers that the diamond has witnessed since the origin of Organized Baseball in the nineteenth century, the game has steadfastly continued marching ahead.

In spite of its many ups and downs, it has provided us with unbroken memories and endless comparisons of its greats from era to era. And it was able to do so by speaking to us in a timeless and language of sound and picture--the crack of the bat, a cap flying off in the outfield, a crowd's voice soaring in unison as the runner rounds third--backed by a universal dictionary of revered definitions: W-L (won-lost), HRs (home runs), RBIs (runs batted in), BA (batting average), and ERA (earned run average).

It was always about what was happening between the foul lines. We didn't really care about anything else.

Even McGwire and Sosa couldn't spoil the main event, in spite of their apparently drug-induced side show in 1998.

Neither could Canseco, Giambi, Bonds, Palmiero, Caminiti, Bagwell, Clemens, Pettitte, or Vaughn. Nor Rose or Ford, Koufax or Grove, Cobb or Speaker, for that matter. We looked at their legendary performances and statistics, their excesses and frailties, which were nearly universal. We tried to understand them in terms of their eras. And, ultimately, we can accept and embrace them.

We could question its stars, but nothing could permanently undermine the game itself. Nothing could stop it from bouncing back. Not racism, drugs, wars, depressions, or earthquakes, not even the designated hitter.

Now it faces a challenge once again.

I'm not sure when it started. But we started looking at the game differently. Attention began shifting away from the field, away from the distinctive way a guy would routinely dive head first into second with dirt and spikes flying.

Instead, we started looking at his SB% (stolen base %), and then, before we knew it, his VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) or TPR (Total Player Rating).

One day we were out in the bleachers arguing with our friends about how many people were in the park, or how many home runs Boog Powell hit in 1967, and eagerly waiting for the scoreboard to announce the actual figures. How did that blundering simplicity change into a smug fluency with win shares, radar guns, ACL injuries, payrolls, contracts, and territorial rights?

Something dark and distracting now seemed to be underway, beneath the giddiness of new attendance records, the promise of a building boom of glossy stadiums, and a bevy of talented young players today that very well may exceed the skills of any previous era.

Even with all this to look forward to, something was wrong.

Rather than simply watch the game, the new fans now wanted to be at the center of attention. Selling them a new identity as baseball "experts," and pumping them up with myriad new stats and "insider" knowledge, could make them feel important and superior to those who didn't "get it," and, most importantly, create new markets and mallparks that would be designed to satisfy this need for self-importance, trendiness, and exclusivity.

Give them their own little electronic world in which to feel special, their own language, their own statistics, their own products, their own personal interactive device--and leave the clunky, grimey, low-tech fans back in Oakland.

Thus, the gentrification of baseball and the birth of Crisco Field.  

Could Bill James, a friendly enough sort, and the father of sabermetrics, be the unwitting Dr. Frankenstein of an electronic plague of redundant calculus-like statistics descending over baseball. Could the sabermetricians and the Moneyballers, SABR's more sinister intellectual beneficiaries, do what even the 1919 Black Sox could not?

Could they ruin baseball?

Maybe. The Moneyballers seem to have hijacked the SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) ship with the help of an affluent, internet-based, business model-saavy fan base that identifies more with money and management than with our communities or the game itself.

An army of stat geeks and closet accountants is turning the Grand Old Game into a world of dubious numbers and formulas for greed-posing-as-sensible baseball management. We are now seeing the merging of this pseudo way to evaluate on-the-field performance--sabermetrics--with the quality control and profits-over-everything mentality of modern corps., banks, and baseball execs.

It's called Moneyball. But do these new stats work? What kind of bargain-hunting arithmetic results in hiring a decidedly declining Mike Piazza for $8M to replace a near MVP Frank Thomas, who is getting $9M from the Jays?

No wonder the real fans are scratching their heads about Ex-A Jermaine Dye--one of the game's best all-around players--getting $7M in 2007, after $5M in 2005 and 2006 from the White Sox, while the Pirates and A's team up to give Jason Kendall $13M in 2007. And, does Jason Kendall's OPS tell you something you don't already know--that he is wildly over-priced--after watching him strand two runners again in the late innings?

Does Bill James' personal favorite, "little stats," really make Craig Biggio the best player in the game--as James claims--or just the best bargain at moving runners from first to second? And do SABR icons like VORPs and "range factors" really enhance watching the game, or will they just send the fans to their nearest Cisco kiosk in 2011, or keep them glued to their pop-up-laden personal interactive device?

The epidemic of saber-stats contrivances--like fielding runs and ERA+ and home park adjustments--has resulted in a fantasy league parallel universe where the fantasy manager's salary cap and budgetary considerations, and all manner of showy calculations and pretentious formulas, are more valued than simply watching--and understanding--the game itself.

It's moneyball vs. baseball. It's Rotisserie League vs. Hot Stove League. It's trendy fans of the trendy ballpark and the esoteric stat vs. fans of the timeless hook slide and the basic hit-and-run.

We may have already seen the beginning of the end of our beloved game as we know it. Even the most traditional fans helplessly find themselves discussing OPS (the sum of on base % and slugging %). And the most popular baseball blogs are dominated by shrewdly calculated actuarial presentations on player payrolls and contracts that more resemble financial analysis in the Wall Street Journal than a baseball story.

Now the fan--the new, smug baseball business-saavy fan who identifies with the owners, not the traditional fan of teams and the ooh-and-ah watching of baseball--can discuss the merits of a three year contract for a middle reliever with the competence and dispassion of a general manager.

But the same fan doesn't know when a throw should be cut off or allowed to go through to the plate on a bang-bang play.

This may be fine with Wall Street, which cares about only its money and investments, and which is comfortable with the way these new age fans identify with wealth and management.

But on Main Street, which has traditionally cared less about profits and more about its hits-and-runs-and-errors, its hot dogs, and a lazy day at the ballpark, embracing the bottom line hasn't taken hold among the fans to the extent giants like Citicard and Safeco would prefer.

We're not rooting hard enough yet for their profit margin. We need to get on board with Cisco's happy vision of a perpetual profit machine in Silicon Valley. This identity with corporate interests would make us more compliant and consumptive.

Is this writer paranoid? Then, tell me, whoever heard of fans rooting for baseball executives, rather than outfielders, the way we do today. Some of us depend on Billy Beane's "shrewdness" to win the pennant and pay more attention to his Macha-vellian madness than we do to the box score.

Just wait, there's more to come. This is where we can see how promotion of the bland Moneyball efficiency model--which sees players as interchangeable parts--is blazing the way for this new kind of fan, one that identifies with annual reports more than scouting reports, and salary caps more than hometeam caps.

The natural result of this shift of loyalty from the game to the bottom line is our acceptance and even approval of the heartlessness and "inevitablity" of moving to Fremont and the creation of the marketing mosh pit called Cisco Field.

Not far behind will be hors d'ouevres like $169 jerseys with "CISCO" proudly emblazoned across the chest. To be followed by a sumptuous menu of Cisco networking devices for our corporate client-fans.

We are immersed in a new world of endless stat-infused chatter over nothing, a constant marketing/Rotisserie League culture in which the fan, no longer just an observer, becomes a player.  Surrounded by extraneous gadgets like ever-present radar guns and personal interactive monitors and endless statistics and commercials "at every seat," ala Cisco Field, we will be ready to buy.

We are now seeing the advent of mallparks, which are designed more for shopping than for watching the game. In fact, the idea is for the customers to NOT watch the game. Get 'em in the gate, then get 'em on line. Forces are at work here which are making modern baseball stadiums begin to feel like your local Best Buy, and these same pressures are encouraging the front offices to operate with all the passion of Goldman Sachs.  

Jason Marquis, a really dreadful pitcher, has  signed with the Cubs for more than $20M for three seasons of ineptitude and three run homers. All the Cubs needed to know about his numbers are a 6.02 ERA in 2006. Instead, whatever fixation with innings and adjusted ERA led the A's to give the same deal to Esteban Loaiza last winter has just made another obvious mediocrity a rich man.

Ironically, today's ever-more frantic emphasis on profits and the bottom line--combined with a lot of silly stat-talk from MBA General Managers, offered in place of the lost ability to know who is good and who is not good--has actually ended up raising the price of these kinds of players.

So, who is more of a threat to the "integrity" and quality of the game--the players who, since time immemorial, have tried to cut corners in any way they could in the course of giving us our greatest memories, or the moneyballers, MBAs (Masters of Baseball Analysis), and accountants, who would rather have us calculate over a spreadsheet than let us settle back and watch the mastery of a two-hitter?

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This diary is going to be popular.
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 14, 2006 11:47 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Meh
This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.
A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 14, 2006 11:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Popular...
with readers of firejoemorgan, should they find it.

by mikeA on Dec 14, 2006 11:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Firejoemorgan rawks
I love how they dig and massacre a lot of logical fallacies and non-facts that people put in their writing.

by tomoyo on Dec 14, 2006 3:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Um
I think there is a No Plaschke rule on this site.
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Dec 14, 2006 11:55 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

or should I say
a No de la Fuente rule
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Dec 14, 2006 11:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Easterbrook? Is that you?
A.  Some fans are understanding baseball using more modern and precise stats.
B.  Owners are targeting a more affluent fan through boutique ballparks and controlling ticket supply.
C.  Therefore A is causing B.

What to say about this...post hoc ergo propter hoc?  Or perhaps we should invoke the underpants gnomes.

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 14, 2006 12:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you could
throw in that more and more owners made their money in analytical ventures and, staying with what they know best, select GM's and support staff who will look for inefficencies to exploit.  
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Dec 14, 2006 12:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or you could say that...
..because I'm only ever drunk at night, either my drinking causes the sun to go down, or the sun going down makes me drunk.

What the diarist needs to do is go out to a batting cage and swing a little.

And while he's there, if someone tries to show him how to fix his stance, he needs to try to avoid cracking that person over the head with the bat for their temerity in actually using intelligence and knowledge and analysis to improve performance.

I mean, heck, we should just close our eyes and swing, right?

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

cut to ribbons
This thread will be cut to ribbons if it anyone takes the time to. I predict no one will. The argument was fleshed out 6 years ago.
80% of the success of a baseball team, like a 80% of the success of a marriage is based on how well you manage your money.

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 12:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent use of a Strawman
This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.
A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 14, 2006 12:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You mention that all any body
cares about is the bottom line which is true ever since the advent of free agency.  With $60-200 million payrolls somebody better look at the bottom line.  In the '88 season the A's payroll was $12 million, then the collusion issue and look what we have now.  Fans seem to think that rich owners pay for the players, instead in reality it is the fans and the prices they now pay.  Moneyball was a direct result of this, the need to find a cheaper player for a team that cannot compete economically.
By the way in answer to your question Bill James is the guy who started all this, I have all of his books from the beginning, a most delightful read, a treasure in my library.

by china bob on Dec 14, 2006 12:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We went over this in your diary on Big Mac...
"Does Bill James' personal favorite, "little stats," really make Craig Biggio the best player in the game--as James claims--"

Bill James never claimed this.  He said he was incredibly undevalued, even with many good statistics, because of these little things.  He has never claimed that he was anywhere near the best player in baseball.

Again, we went over this in your last thread, so I'm not sure if you're not listening, just trying to start an argument, or simply don't care to get your facts right.

by SuperBean on Dec 14, 2006 12:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes he did
Read the updated Historical Abstract, which I believe was written in 1999.

by yarky on Dec 14, 2006 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He's right ...
it's under the Barry Bonds article:

The ten best players of the 1990s:

  1. Barry Bonds
  2. Craig Biggio
  3. Frank Thomas
  4. Ken Griffey Jr.
  5. Jeff Bagwell
  6. Rafael Palmeiro
  7. Barry Larkin
  8. Roberto Alomar
  9. Mark McGwire
  10. Greg Maddux
The number two man, Biggio, is closer in value to the number 10 man than he is to Bonds. Biggio passed Bonds as the best player in baseball in 1997.

Keep in mind when this was written and that he is specifically talking about the 90s:

OPS+
1997 Biggio 143 Bonds 170
1998 Biggio 139 Bonds 177
1999 Biggio 118 Bonds 162

Massive difference there.

It was ameliorated slightly by Biggio's 125 stolen bases compared to Bonds' 80.

But what it fails to take into account is that Biggio was a high end defensive player at a premium defensive position.

Bonds was a good defensive player (he had started to slow by then and won his last couple of GGs based mostly on rep) at arguably the easiest defensive position.

So what does VORP have to say?
1997 Biggio 80.1 Bonds 86.4
1998 Biggio 80.5 Bonds 83.8
1999 Biggio 48.3 Bonds 45.6

So, according to VORP, during the period in question in the 90s, Biggio's bat was worth 7 runs less than Bonds'.

I find it impossible to imagine that Biggio's glove didn't make up the difference and then some (though I have no data to back it up).

Even without getting into his small ball contributions, a very plausible argument can be made that from 1997-1999 Biggio was better than Bonds.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...
I took that as Biggio was the best player in 1997, in which looking at WARP3 numbers, he was.  You could very well be right that he actually meant for that three year period, but with that very not great 99 season it seems strange and out of place.  So I dunno.

And also, he is realistic in pointing out that over the decade, Biggio was closer to tenth place then he was to first(Bonds), cause Bonds was so out of everyone elses league.

by SuperBean on Dec 14, 2006 7:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lamar was injured in 99 ...
limiting his totals ...

I'm not sure that either Barry nor Biggio was the best of those three years.

In terms of VORP, they were 8th and 11th in the league.

Nomar Garciaparra, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Larry Walker, Derek Jeter and Mike Piazza all had solid leads on the pair.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 9:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's also not forget...
...Craig Biggio = most plunked player in baseball history.

That's gotta be worth something.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's also not forget . . .
That not only was a I basically "right," SuperBean, about what James said and you need to be a little less snooty, but your whole coterie (sp?) of sabermetricians needs to laugh at yourselves a little for trying to make this Biggio assertion sound reasonable.  C'mon!

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 15, 2006 10:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It is reasonable
Biggio was a hell of a player back then. Barry Bonds was too, but it wasn't until 2000 that the results of his poofy cheeks really kicked in.

Do you have an actual argument to make ... or are you just going with "c'mon"?

You're right, I know what is implied by "c'mon" -- Barry Bonds is Barry Bonds, Craig Biggio is just a little second baseman.

Well Joe Morgan was a little dude too, so were Eddie Collins and Rogers Hornsby.

I do think that James overstates Biggio's talents a bit.

But, I suppose this just proves his actual point -- that Biggio was a terribly underappreciated superstar. If folks who do their best to tell the difference between a .280 and .300 hitter based on looking at their swings instead of their stats don't realize Biggio's brilliance, it's no wonder he has been quite underappreciated.

by devo on Dec 15, 2006 11:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I will give in on the first part...
I was wrong, as the part I thought you were pointing(The Biggio article on "little stats") did not include what you stated, but it was elsewhere.  I have never had trouble admiting my mistakes, and this one I was definitely mistaken.  I apologize for sounding "snooty," but its a little hard to take from someone who said "But the same fan doesn't know when a throw should be cut off or allowed to go through to the plate on a bang-bang play," or "No wonder the real fans are scratching their heads."  Nice insinuation that you're a better fan with more 'true' baseball knowledge than supposed "stat-heads."

Regardless, I think we have placed a reasonable argument that Biggio was the best player in 1997, and one of the most valuable from 1997-1999.  You have stated nothing, other than that it is laughable.

Offer some insight, why was he bad?  Who was better?  You seem to be very good at brushing off others facts and information without providing anything of an argument yourself.

by SuperBean on Dec 15, 2006 6:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

how exactly are the stat head and cell phone fan
the same person?
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 14, 2006 12:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Fascinating.
Is there a point?
"[Frank's] a big battler. He's the mother of battleships."

-Nick Swisher

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 14, 2006 12:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

{checks top of head}
"You know, Mark Ellis is the all-time home run leader from South Pecota." ~ jeepers

by Poppy on Dec 14, 2006 12:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sal is ruining baseball
"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 14, 2006 12:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<tries to engineer end of baseball>
"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 14, 2006 1:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<sells tickets to watch>
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rolex?
"You know, Mark Ellis is the all-time home run leader from South Pecota." ~ jeepers

by Poppy on Dec 14, 2006 1:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<makes graph to analyze sales data>
"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 14, 2006 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're ruining scalping.
"You know, Mark Ellis is the all-time home run leader from South Pecota." ~ jeepers

by Poppy on Dec 14, 2006 1:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

</Custer>
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<reads graph on cellphone at ballpark>
<flogs peasant>
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 1:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<twirls mustach>
<laughs evily>
"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 14, 2006 2:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<ties indigent A's fan to monorail track>
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

<eats puppy casserole>
<sells soul to devil>

<becomes sports agent>

"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 14, 2006 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait. Now I'm confused.
If you sell your soul to the devil, then wouldn't Boras both own your soul and get a commission on the transfer fee?
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 3:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And does god
get a posting fee?

by sslinger on Dec 14, 2006 4:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Too answer your question
I read this over a second time, thanks for taking the time to write it.
Now to answer the spirit of the question:
"So, who is more of a threat to the "integrity" and quality of the game--the players who, since time immemorial, have tried to cut corners in any way they could in the course of giving us our greatest memories, or the moneyballers, MBAs (Masters of Baseball Analysis), and accountants, who would rather have us calculate over a spreadsheet than let us settle back and watch the mastery of a two-hitter?"

The high cost of going to baseball games is ruining it for me-the $8 beers and $20 T-shirts, that and the ticket scalpers, and the fact that the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets can pretty much get whatever player they want.
I guess that would make the 2nd group as ruining the game for me.

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 12:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

edit
*In answer to your question

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You know...
...you could not bother buying a T-shirt.

And a hip flask is a great beer substitute.

I never quite understand people who go to events that should, by themselves, be plenty enjoyable, and then complain about how expensive the unnecessary extras are.

"I can't believe they charge $6 for popcorn at this theater!"
"So why did you buy it?"

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hip flask
I dont think I would bring bourbon/whiskey into a stadium-its got such a distinctive smell that carries pretty far away.
Not sure what else you would put in a hip flask-bourbon/whiskey are the only things that hold up well at normal temps. I do admit it does sound appealing on an April night game though.

[quote]
"...you could not bother buying a T-shirt."
[/quote]

true-I have been experimenting with a some green and gold markers and a plain white hanes T-Shirt. I am pretty happy with the results, plus I can wear the number of whatever player I like.

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 1:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Only $20?
T-shirts for only $20? I had to pay over $30 at the stadium for the last A's t-shirt I bought. ('Course, it had the word "Blanton" on it, which has to at least double its value....) :P

by BerkeleyDawg on Dec 15, 2006 2:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Everything changes or is left behind.
baseball has changed because we have changed.

by Billy Ball 2005 on Dec 14, 2006 12:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What has changed here?
To paraphrase a widely respected Bay Area baseball observer--and I'm not referring to Joe Morgan--we don't need sabermetrics to be able to watch the game and know who can catch, run, throw, and hit. The thing that has changed, besides the players being better than ever, is that we now have another contrived, specialized market which allows a lot of money to be made through maketing, rotisserie leagues, snobby seson tickets in Fremont, etc. I don't think any of us, including this writer, fully understand the importance of this aura of exclusivity and "getting it" is to the modern market place, where the consumer is not only buying the material product but buying a feeling of being an insider . . . you can connect the dots here, becaue I'm a little tired of talking about it, and I can use some help anyway

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 12:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

big mutant hybrid strawman
Don't have time to answer your post in great detail, mainly because your post combines three groups of people that are different, oversimplifying things into meaninglessness:
  1. people who like the new stats
  2. people who obsess over fantasy baseball
  3. people who are casual affluent fans
I don't like fantasy baseball (it warps my enjoyment of the games). I am affluent but not a casual fan.  I like the new stats and am bored of attacks on them by people who don't understand them.

I have no problem who want to ignore new stats, but people who resent them really protest too much. If you understand what a batting average is, you really have no excuse to resent OBP (yeah you know me), SLG, and OPS, etc.

And yes, you DO need stats to know how well people run, throw and hit. No one can tell by eye the difference between a .300 hitter and a .280 hitter. Knowing these subtle differences shapes and enhances the pleasure of seeing the game unfold.

by Apricot on Dec 14, 2006 1:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can tell the difference . . .
Not only can some people tell the differnce between a .280 hitterand a .300 hitter with their eye, but they can tell which one will hit when it matters . . . .

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 1:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and the difference between 103mph and 99mph
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 14, 2006 1:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

or at the very least ...
they say they can. That counts too, right?

Truthfully, though, at the beginning of this season, I predicted Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki would each bat .300. I did it only based on looking at their swings. I knew but made this pick while ignoring the fact that they both have well above .300 career batting averages.

Aren't you impressed with me?

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 1:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who are 3 people who've never been
in my kitchen?
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 14, 2006 1:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No
That one is, "Who are two people who can't speak English, and one who can?"
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 14, 2006 1:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I knew you would say that
Not because I analyzed your history of snark.

I could just feel it.

by mikeA on Dec 14, 2006 1:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

gee ... that sucks
your analysis of my posting is ruining AN, baseball and generally society as a whole.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 1:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

now that i come to think of it,
i don't much appreciate the analysis of analysis going on here, but that's just my analysis.
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 14, 2006 1:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"You have anal sis?"
</borat>
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

gee
and here i thought the "business of baseball" was ruining AN, baseball and society in general.
"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2006 3:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I do ...
and I'm glad to see that someone is reading my articles ...

The corporatization of baseball will infect your soul, curve your spine and keep the country from winning the war.

But no one has yet to make an even remotely sensible argument linking SABRmetrics with the business of baseball.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 3:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sometimes
you make my head hurt.
"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2006 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a workout for your brain ...
no pain, go gain ... lets go, two more reps, come on, get it up.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Devo, my response on SABR and business
Sabermetrics, which began innocently enough and is a sincere and fun tool for a lot of good baseball fans (I should have been more careful to show respect for them earlier) is just a prop for the marketers, who spam-like infect everything now like a virus. Advertising and marketing tries to create a feeling of exclusivity and I-get-it-ness, and the moneyball-suburbmetrics audience is a great conduit and target, with the emphasis on sophisticated formulas, knowledge, esoteric language. At the same time, the proliferation of rotisserie stuff and the nomadic and selfish outlook of the players has detached a lot of fans from the game of teams and coincidently made the fans themslves players. We are all now "experts." Believe me, this is a fundamental change, and the corps play to this sense of "expertness."  That is the main conection of sabemetrics to baseball business. This is a society where you have to be the center of attention and activity to feel validated. No longer to people go to games(I know this is a generality) to WATCH someone else. Now we have to be the event ourselves, with our uniforms and need for luxury and ostentatious behavior. We may not understand how all this works, but Madison Avenue does . . .  

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 3:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Then why make SABR/value the boogeyman?
If those are just interesting ideas which are being co-opted by the mallparketeers as examples of the larger trends in American life, then you seem to have your villians mixed up in you diary, and especially in your title.  The bad guys are the commodifiers, not the fantasy baseball playing BP reading statheads (of which I am neither).

It's the puppet masters who are the Grinch, not a handful of modern fans.

And how amusing is it that the statheads have become the hipsters and the old school fans the geeks in your construction?

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 14, 2006 3:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That kind fo runs in the face of most marketing
efforts. You don't generally get rich by appealing to the highest common denominator.

They are specifically not targeting the SABR crowd it's members and followers are already huge devotees of the game and are already spending more or less what it is they are going to spend. SABRmetrics are complicated -- they require time, thought and mental energy -- I can understand why many folks who could get it choose not to expend that kind of effort on a pursuit of leisure.

The corporatization movement is designed to encourage 6 figure income individuals and families who aren't really baseball fans as much as they are simply in need of leisure activities to choose a ball game as the evening's leisure as often as possible. They want folks who will drop $20 on food, $30 on beer after buying a $60 seat. Those folks don't know or care about SABRmetrics. They scorn it because they are generally intelligent people and don't like there being something they don't understand.

If you click on the link in my signature, you might find an article by me, myself as well as I, mourning the loss of either baseball as a pure game or my youthful innocence.

There are plenty of us here who would be very interested in discussing the pros and cons of the business of baseball. But most of those people take their SABRmetrics pretty seriously and you really, really haven't shown any except the flimsiest of connections between SABRmetrics and the corporatization of baseball.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You think you're a ton deeper than you really are.
Here's how it works:

When someone likes something a whole lot, let's say sports cars, they generally tend to read up on them, collect them, immerse themselves in them and surround themselves with fellow devotees (shut up, Devo).

The internet, and to a lesser extent, global publishing and TV analysis, have done what wasn't widely done outside of baseball cards, Strat-O-Matic, and Sports Illustrated in the 50's and 60's - they've greatly increased the availability and accessability of knowledge on the topic.

When I was growing up, kids talked of batting average and wins, then it moved to RBIs and ERA, and then weird stuff like OPS and VORP - not because something new was needed to keep people interested, but because people are INTERESTED enough to FIND something new!

We don't need VORP to enjoy the game, but VORP exists in the world, whether we measure it or not, and thus if we are to be true students of the game, if we really give a fuck about how player A gets to point B, we WANT to have every tool at our discretion with which to try to guess which Player A will make that journey successfully.

Of course, that confuses you, dear diarist, because you think you can tell just by looking at a player that he's a .300 hitter and not a .280 hitter - an incredible feat considering that over 500 ABS, the difference between the two players is only ten hits.

So I'm going to call you on your bullshit, diarist. You can no more tell which hitter will get that extra one hit per 16.2 games than you can guess which player wears bikini underwear.

For the record, the answer is Kenny Rogers.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

bravo
<annika sorenstam venereal disease>
--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 15, 2006 3:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

really?
.280*500=140 hits
.300*500=150 hits

So you're telling me that over the course of a 162 game season (500 at-bats), someone can tell the difference between a hitter who gets one more hit every 16 games? Doubtful.

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 1:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Like Scutaro?
"Every time he's in that position, he gets a hit." ~Justin Duchscherer

by scutaroknowstheway on Dec 14, 2006 10:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

please
tell me how the movement toward more advanced statistics is linked to high priced tickets and catering toward the luxury box fan.
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 14, 2006 1:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

see note above to Billy Ball 2005
There is a separating going on in this society,which is very profitable for some, and which finds expression in baseball just like it does in the auto industry or anywhere else, in which there are cues and triggers that are used in marketing and sales to help the buyer make their decision. Crisco Field, for instance, reeks from this stench of exclusivity, and in my opinion the whole insider-moneyball/rotisserie-"I get it and you don't" exclusivity is an important part, nationally, of that identity. Cisco is interested in netting their cleint-fans, and Lewis Wolff wants a santiized tourist destination to increase his project value. I'm sorry to say that a lot of us don't yet see the connection between these things, but hopefully we will . . .

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"I get it and you don't" exclusivity
is pandemic in mainstream sportswriting and thought.  Indeed, the very thought that somebody can tell the difference between a .280 and a .300 hitter simply by looking at their swings is the symptom of the kind of exclusivity you ascribe to those who dare use spreadsheets and analysis to enjoy baseball.
Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Dec 14, 2006 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're still not saying how they are connected.
You're saying that stat-heads are splitting up baseball between people who are in the know and those who aren't.  Then you say that Lew Wolff is splitting up baseball between the have's and have not's making it even more exclusive.

The problem is, what is the connection between these two things?  You are saying it as though all the rich fans who will be going to the games are stat-heads, and all the poor fans who will now be counted out of high-proced stadiums are "traditionalists."  I personally don't buy into this argument, as a person who loves baseball, loves baseball-prospectus, and soon will probably will be unable to afford to attend as many games as I would like.

If anything, high-priced athletes are raising the costs of baseball, not stat-heads.  Like someone mentioned, who really pays those player's salaries?  Look at the average ticket prices of the highest payroll teams.  "Moneyball" ideas of finding undervalued players has helped keep the A's competitive with a low payroll, allowing for some of the cheaper tickets in professional baseball.  Because a new owner comes in and wants to make more money and make the team even better, does not mean that moneyball was what lead to this change, I would argue it helped delay it.

by SuperBean on Dec 14, 2006 1:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The connection. That's a hard one.
The connection between the "new" stats. moneyball, and Lew Wolff. OK, I admit, it's tough to amke the argument, and maybe I ahven't done it successfully. I don't know how it all started exactly, and it's not just about baseball, but what I do know is that more and more the market place is relying on and exploiting a need in consumers to feel special and like they "get it" and other don't. So, esoteric, relatively sophisticated things, such as sabermetrics and moneyball cna become symbols and triggers and cues which direct the consumer to certain products, such as baseball tickets and networking devices. Today, more than ever, when we buy a product we are also buying an identity. Lew Wolff and Cisco didn'tthink they could build that identity oin Oakland. That's my best shot. Please at least let me know if I got across what I was trying to say coherently, even if, as I am sure many of you feel, it doens't describe what is happening . . .

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

other than the BP Annual,
what products, specifically, do SABRmetrics drive us to?

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're saying
Or, at least, what I think you're saying, is that Oakland fans are too poor, and as a result of the Fremont stat-heads the team is being taken away so that richer people who like OBP can watch them. Is that what you're trying to tell me?

by Alon on Dec 14, 2006 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Dude, he doesn't know what he's saying.
He's making it up as he goes along. What started as a shot at people who know what VORP means and can see why it'd be valuable to watch, has turned into one long effort to explain himself out of his self-dug hole of silly.

I wonder how he'll see the two-sided outfield scoreboard, built so people outside the ground can watch the game for free from a park, as some sort of 'exclusionary' tactic.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Circularer and circularer
Holy logic puzzle, batman, your whole theme is that SABR/value statheads are the hip in-crowd to whom the Wolff-Cisco marketeers hope to peddle their exclusive, pricey wares.  And here now you say that's a hard case to make.  Well duh...it's hard because there is no such link.  Sure, products benefit from making themselves seem hip.  That's not new.  Just because modern stats, fantasy baseball, and higher end ballpark experiences are all taking place in the same thirty year period doesn't mean they're causative.

There's an interesting discussion to be had about the commodification of a day at the ballpark.  And there's also an interesting conversation to be had about new school metrics versus old school observations.  But to equate the two sans evidence is to do a disservice to both conversations.

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 14, 2006 2:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

urgh
Why must there be a war? I love baseball. That's all.

I love watching the ball arc through a blue sky, but I also love knowing that the batter has an EqA of .315.

There's nothing better than watching a game on a beautiful spring afternoon, the crack of the bat drifting up to the cheap seats, enjoying a cold beer. But I also think that figuring out a hitter's BABIP can tell you a lot about him.

The moment a curveball dives down and in is a great thing to watch. But am I "ruining baseball" if I want to know what opposing batters are slugging against that curveball?

I'm a fan of the beautiful and sublime things about our national pastime. That will never change. But I also believe that by looking at it objectively, we can know even more about the game, and more of its fascinating inner workings can be explored.

It reminds me of a situation I faced a couple years ago. I've loved to watch storms since I was a little kid; they're amazing. I decided to take a meteorology class that semester, but I worried that once I knew more about the science of the inner workings of storms, they'd lose some of their magic and luster. It didn't hurt my appreciation of nature's forces, but only enhanced and expanded it.

So please, as a plea to everyone who feels the need to paint the different ways to appreciate a baseball game as some sort of conflict over the very soul of the game... step back and hold on a minute. You're fighting a war that you've created, and only you sustain. I hate to sound too hippy-dippy, but can't we all just get along?

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 12:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

no
they're stats.

as in, "lies, damn lies, and statistics."

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 12:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And
Damn Dirty Apes!
"You're a terrible ballplayer, but you've always been a great asshole."-salb918 on Ozzie Guillen

by gatling on Dec 14, 2006 2:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nebraska, Thanks for your nice sentiment and work
I really appreciate you clarifying the argument here. I do agree that it's great that people look at things in differnt ways . . . In fact, I was interested in looking at your graphs and probably pay more attention to SABR stuff and OPS than most fans. My arguments--which could have been more tactful-were more trying to get at the insidious niche marketing and snobbery which goes well beyond baseball (if you don't mind, please read my previous comment, to BillyBall 2005), but which we in baseball are all being affected by. And I think there is a certain audience on AN that really attacks different ideas and condescends and I guess I was bracing for their dismissiveness when I put this up . . .  

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 1:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, to an extent
I think there are elements on both sides that treat the "opposing" views with disdain. I wish that would end. Fans turning on each other because they think that the way someone else appreciates the game is "ruining it" is a terrible trend.

I took your article to be another volley in that battle. Your comments suggest otherwise, but the article stands as such.

Your point about fantasy baseball affecting the sport is well-taken, though. But I think it's a different issue, one that's more related to the creep of modern business interests into baseball, such as the "ads on the bases" stunt Selig tried to pull a couple years ago.

But when you come to AN and post something as provocative as this, you have to expect people to not take it well. Your tone reeks of anti-intellectualism and condescension.

I think that, like many journalists, you've written an article which you don't necessarily agree with whole-heartedly, but written to get responses and prompt discussion.

Also, your point about the following is a little off base. "...backed by a universal dictionary of revered definitions: W-L (won-lost), HRs (home runs), RBIs (runs batted in), BA (batting average), and ERA (earned run average)."

For many years, some of those stats were not kept at all. ERA wasn't considered important until sometime in the 1920's. Baseball has a long history of accepting new means to measure itself.

Also, please stop beating the Bill James straw man. He's not the baseball devil.

And another point: SABR has little, if anything, to do with sabermetrics. For instance, I'm a member of a SABR committees that studies minor league baseball. Most, if not all, of the discussion is about the players themselves, and not their stats.

There are better things to write about in the offseason than about how fellow fans are "ruining" the game.

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You bring a lot of insight, but . . .
I really like your love of the game. Stats, like you say, have always been evolving, and they in themselves--our lifeblood as baseball fans--are not the enemy. But, no, I am not just trying to provoke an argument. I am trying to connect what is happening with the A's and Fremont, for example, to something much deeper in our culture.
We are all being affected by a humongous rearranging and fragmenting of the market place where new identites/shoppers are being created all the time. More fundamental than what is going on in baseball is the exploitation of the accelerating need to feel special, unique, informed, as in "I get it and you don't."  It's my belief that the explosion of an insider market of baseball fans, who engage in a parallel rotisserie world, sabermetrics, moneyball, and all the rest of the new esoteric baseball culture (which, as I mentioned earlier, I myself partake in)is a development that plugs in very nicely to what the Cisco A's are attempting in Fremont, which will be not only a bsseball country club but a world marketing center for Cisco products and image. Repeating myself, sorry, but today's consumer is not just buying a prodcut but also an identity . . .

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with some of that
Cisco would be smart to align themselves with "new esoteric baseball culture" to move it's product and proliferate their brand. After all, they're looking to make money. So is Major League Baseball, as are the owners and players.

I think this is just another trend, another era, not the end of 27 outs. To put it plainly, it sucks that most loyal fans cannot afford to be at the ballpark as much anymore, but that's due to the system as a whole, not approaching the understanding of baseball through different views.

Anyway, baseball is no more above any other social hierarchy when it comes to exclusiveness. We're talking about some of the original old boys clubs, only now they've added more tiers and charge a higher price for admission.  

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 14, 2006 2:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

so your saying...
So your saying what you dont like the general trend in marketing esp. product positioning and the general attitude of "stat heads" in baseball as oppossed to "stat heads" in other fields such as insurance, quality control or weather prediction?

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?
That's a lot to digest, so let me break it up.
We are all being affected by a humongous rearranging and fragmenting of the market place where new identites/shoppers are being created all the time.

I have no idea what this has to do with sabermetrics "ruining the game".

More fundamental than what is going on in baseball is the exploitation of the accelerating need to feel special, unique, informed, as in "I get it and you don't."

Isn't that exactly what you're saying, though, that you, and the other folks who like to see people's hats fly off in the outfield, "Get it" and we, the sabermetric nerds ruining the game, don't get it?

It's my belief that the explosion of an insider market of baseball fans, who engage in a parallel rotisserie world, sabermetrics, moneyball, and all the rest of the new esoteric baseball culture (which, as I mentioned earlier, I myself partake in)is a development that plugs in very nicely to what the Cisco A's are attempting in Fremont, which will be not only a baseball country club but a world marketing center for Cisco products and image.

So sabermetricians are part of a baseball "country club", and we're not letting you in?

I fail to see how Cisco partnering with the A's is going to bring about baseball apocalypse. It's not as if when you go to the stadium, you're required to buy a Cisco router or sign up for their mailing list.

Repeating myself, sorry, but today's consumer is not just buying a product but also an identity

So you're saying that by attending games, you're essentially wearing a "Cisco Rules!" t-shirt?

I think it's pretty easy to go the the ballpark and watch the game, ignoring all the ads and noise of other things that could take away from the experience.

If you want to talk about things like that ruining the game, let's have a discussion about Fox Sports and their animated everything on TV, or the ads they place digitally behind the batter. Let's talk about ESPN broadcasting games as an excuse to pimp their own programming later on.

In the grand scheme of things that are threatening to baseball, I think folks who know their way around some numbers are pretty far down the list.

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently you haven't studied much history.
The A's weren't always in Oakland, you know. They 'marketed' themselves out of Philly and Kansas City before they got here.

But hey, I guess that was just something to do with the weather, and not the obvious fact that, sometimes, you can make a little more money and upgrade your place of residence by moving house once in a while.

It's the EVILLE MARKETING PEOPLE! OOOH, OOGA BOOGA!

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:55 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
Such an astounding collection of faulty logic and non sequiturs that it's hard to know where to begin. Among the crimes for which sabermetricians are to blame, apparently, are greedy owners, "mallparks," overpriced jerseys, Jermaine Dye's health, Jason Kendall's lack of power, Jim Hendry's ridiculous signing of Jason Marquis, and fetishizing Craig Biggio's ability to move a runner from first to second. The first four of these are, of course, utter irrelevancies, and the latter three are among those things that sabermetricians actively mock. Perhaps sabermetricians should also be blamed for global warming and mideast terrorism.

What is threatened by sabermetrics is not "the game," but rather lazy sportswriters who would have us believe that they hold the final word on baseball. Count a hitters RBIs, or a pitchers wins, add in some quotes about his leadership, and pump out another formulaic column about how Steve Garvey is a hall of famer. Then hit the bar. God forbid an outsider should question their pronouncements.

In a much-ridiculed quote that would have fit right into this screed, Joe Morgan once suggested that too much reliance on computers is "what led to Enron." But the truth is just the opposite: what led to Enron was a willful ignorance that allowed people to ignore science and logic in favor of lies. I guess that, despite having a healthy (some would say unhealthy) cynicism, I'm still basically a positivist: I believe that on the whole more knowledge will make our lives better, that while science has helped lead to more powerful weapons, the brutal efficiency of Walmart, and pollution, that's been an acceptable price to pay for cures for diseases, computers, and a generally high standard of living. And, yes, a greater understanding of baseball. I also think it's no coincidence that the general manager who integrated baseball also had a keen interest in finding better statistics - both are signs of an open mind that is apparently all too rare.

Nebraska just summed it up well. I love knowledge and science, and I also love just sitting and watching a ballgame (where, by the way, I generally sit in the bleachers, and carry neither a laptop nor a cellphone, since I don't own either one.) I have little use, though, for atavists.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 1:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I, for one criticize the pronouncements
of anyone who doesn't think hitting the bar is a worthwhile end un to itself.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 1:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fortunately
I would never say such a thing.
In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

you came dangerously close ...
btw, can you ... or one of the other folks on this site who is much smarter than me recommend a good but affordable stat program primarily for running regression analysis?

It has to be able to handle a pretty large chunk of data ...

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 2:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

need something fancier than Excel?
"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Dec 14, 2006 2:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think so
Now I don't really dab into this stuff, but I know there is a data analysis toolpak in Excel that has regression.  You might not have it installed though.
"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Dec 14, 2006 2:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah
Inside Excel, click Data Analysis on the Tools menu. If the Data Analysis command is not available, you need to install and load the Analysis ToolPak add-in.  Its on the Office disc if you need to install.  Regression is in there.

I had 3 business stats classes way back in college and we had to install this plug-in.  

Man I hated those classes :)

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Dec 14, 2006 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, there it is ...
awesome, thanks -- is that new? I could have sworn my stats profs specifically said it wasn't available in Excel ... that was only 5 or 6 years ago ... damn, I'm getting old.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 2:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

haha
no problem.
"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Dec 14, 2006 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Open Office
You can try using the dbase and spreadsheet funtion with OpenOffice
www.openoffice.org
I think mini tab and SPSS are avaiable for sub $100 now.
You can also get Mathematica for under $75 if you have a student friend.

You can get R , its free and has a nice support community.
http://www.r-project.org/

good luck

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 2:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've got to say
it's simply outstanding that a discussion of statistical software has broken out in a diary attacking those who would use it for baseball purposes.

makes my day.

--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 14, 2006 2:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's beautiful, isn't it?
Now if I can just figure out how to get the data out of the database (which they puropsely made difficult, I believe, so that we have to continue to pay for it ...)

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 2:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You people are what caused Enron.
And the Rally Monkey.

You and your eville VORPish ways.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 12:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

who says YOU have to change
Until these "stat geeks" can actually CONTROL the players by their RFID enabled uniforms from the fans cell phones, it doesnt matter what new "trends" baseball takes on.  

If people want to do their thing with electronic devices and love for stats, who cares.  It doesnt have to effect you or what actually happens on the field.  Professionall baseball is and always will be a contest between athletes gifted with the ability to play a game at the highest level.  

Put on your AM/FM headphones and tune everything out at the park if it makes you feel better.  

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Dec 14, 2006 1:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

CISCO has invented wireless technology
that can be used to control baseball players from as far as 100 meters away.

The technology will be demonstrated on Jason Kendall in 2007, and it is hoped that it will produce the heretofore unseen feat (in the AL) of three Jason Kendall HRs in one season.

MJB

by MJB on Dec 14, 2006 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's actually
video of a prototype of the Cisco Kendallbot in action.
In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 4:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sabean and monkeyball are on steroids?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 14, 2006 1:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

All I know is......
.....that the A's keep winning with a low payroll. I don't care if they do it with Moneyball, Sabermetrics, Cisco Systems or Miss Cleo for that matter. While I do like the iconoclastic theme of this post, and think that it was both well thought out and well written, the bottom line is that the A's keep winning, which is something that Moneyballers and Old Skool Oaktown fans can agree upon.

by may7 on Dec 14, 2006 2:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

All I know is that your post, I felt, needed...
...a reply.  For this (what you have written) is the essense of the rationale for abandoning the old and conservative [I didn't realize dinosaurs were alive any longer much less know they were capable of writing] way of viewing baseball and now looking at baseball with fresh new thought.  I have welcomed the change, embraced the change, and am now completely inspired by the change of thought because it recognizes the true economics [not to be confused with pecuniary matters only] to this game.  For me, the "value over replacement player" statistic is a very deep and profound concept that goes staraight to the matter of efficiency, to balance, and to tradeoffs.  I recognize it for what it is even though I do not use it nor look it up.

And, it looks as though the author of this particular diary does not share our enthusiams for the new era and this new thought.  I wonder, though, if the Athletics' winning percentage during the Beane era -- a by-product of this new way of thinking -- is something that this author also finds troubling.  Maybe he liked the old way better...the seemingly perpetual 77-85 records with a World Series appearence sprinkled in every ten years or so.

4 8 15 16 23 42

by LowcountryJoe on Dec 14, 2006 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Moneyball and winning baseball
Moneyball, to the degree I understand it, has been a very successful business strategy for putting a competitive team on the field with a limited expense, and making a profit (se Forbes Magaize to find out how very well the A's have done in Oakland, at least before Lew closed the third deck).

But before last season this team has not gotten as far as the ACLS since the Bash Brothers.

Maybe we need more steroids (just kidding). Anyway, what is emerging here is more of an argument about the business of baseball and its connection to this new somewhat esoteric new rotisserie culture and audience. Please forgive me, but if we can't see that connection at all, like many are protesting, I don't know what to say (Give me a minute, I'll think of something . . .)

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Couple of things here.
Moneyball is just a book title that details the economics (again, "economics" as in not necessarily pecuniary in nature) of baseball.  Since I am, first and foremost, a bigger fan of microeconomics than I am a fan of baseball, I took to that book and it led me here, amazingly enough.  

My personal view about the book was that it was very well written for what it tried to convey -- the subtitle alone being "The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" [though I am not a big believer in so-called unfairness when competition exists].  And yes, I really do believe that Beane agreed to give access to Lewis because he guessed, perhaps correctly, that what was being conveyed would actually help some segment of fans to come to appreciate what beane was trying to do in this organization...as though it was a marketing gimmick of sorts for Beane and the owners.

Back to microeconomics: in 'micro' courses, one is taught to see what isn't seen on the surface, as Bastiat might put it. One is also taught that economic actors (and we all are)desire to maximize their utility.  Given that: the Athletics have failed to advance in the playoffs to the fans' desired expectations, that the team is going to move out of Oakland, that it seemingly discards endeared players for one reason or another almost every year, that it doesn't sign superstar players unless there is some deep flaw that causes their 'star' to fade, and that it not just smashes old baseball beliefs but instead also antagonizes those that hold such beiefs -- and all the while does these things while maintaining a fan base -- I think that the new direction, one that looks at baseball economically, has been a big hit with the fans...at least most of the ones here.

I can understand the bitterness, particularly from someone who disdains the business behind the baseball.  you have to realize, though, without those who are willing to be in the business of fielding a 'baseball product', you'll get no product...and then no one is maximizing their utility.

I do see the connection that you speak of but I have this strange feeling that you're muttering your thoughts amongst this "esoteric new rotisserie...audience"

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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 14, 2006 5:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This Diary
Totally bitch-slapped the DLD.  
Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Dec 14, 2006 2:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I knew it would be popular.
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 14, 2006 2:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

new DLD: Daily Ludicrous Diary
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why do you hate our freedldoms?
"...sometimes I can't tell the difference between baseball and magic."- salb918 "Ellie plowed into him like an evil, pink unicorn."-ArakSOT

by McFood on Dec 14, 2006 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

aka freedldom and freedldommer
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 6:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I just read a quote from, I think, Lincoln
"He can compress the most words into the smallest ideas better than any man I ever knew."

by Elvez on Dec 14, 2006 3:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Channeling Richard Griffin much ?
Discussing the possibility of the Jays losing Vernon Wells:

"And please don't compare this to the A's losing Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada and the big three starters, including, this year, Barry Zito. There was never any emotion in A's scenarios. That was pure Moneyball.

This is not Moneyball. There has never been a chapter dealing with 'replacement value' for fan favourites, which is the difference between A's and Jays and why on most nights you can fire a cannon through the Oakland Coliseum and not hit anyone."

"Even if you know the deck is stacked in your favor, you still have to have the discipline to trust the math and the cojones to go to the ATM." BB

by green star oakland on Dec 14, 2006 3:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Something I've always wondered
I'm just curious on the difference between A's "moneyball" and the Twins good old fashioned baseball in your opinions (from a money management perspective, not a field strategy perspective).

It seems the A's are singled out everytime "moneyball" is brought into play.
I am assuming that bunting and stealing bases has nothing to do with moneyball as in making money off baseball (it does have a relationship with using statistics to make strategic decisions).

And why are the Red Sox a team that "doesn't run a lot", and the A's are the epitomy of evil to the old guard.

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 4:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well ...
The Twins aren't an imaginary Ozzie Guillen team. They play the game pretty much straight up, with a pretty normal number of stolen bases and sacrifices. Except for 2004, they've always found themselves right in the middle of the pack.

How have they done it? Well, actually, pretty similarly to A's teams of recent vintage -- pitching, defense and player development.

League Ranks
YR SB SH
06 06 09
05 4t 05
04 03 06
03 07 07
02 08 09

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You and your stats, devo
A real fan can just look at the Twins and know they bunt and steal all the time!
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 14, 2006 9:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that, you can tell...
..which players will bunt 5 times a season, and which will bunt 6.
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

'The simple answer is that
Moneyball was written about the A's, no one else and has nothing to do with bunting or stealing bases.  That was in the book but that referred to BB's philosophy, not about the value of an individual pitcher or hitter.  IT also had nothing to do with making a profit, only had to do with fielding a competitive team, that can win on a small budget.

by china bob on Dec 14, 2006 9:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Funny
Begin rant:

People always accuse science of destroying mystery like they enjoy being ignorant. When Newton described how light was electromagnetic waves, he was accused of "unweaving the rainbow," and thereby ruining it. I would write a comment on how stupid that is, but instead I'll plug the book "Unweaving the Rainbow" by Richard Dawkins. He does an excellent job in describing exaclty how silly comments like such as this diary are.

Rant ends.

by MrIncognito on Dec 14, 2006 5:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The condescension is weak. Can you do better?
Sabermetrics/moneyball is fun. But Idon't know if its science. Some day we'll probably find out. By being scientific. The other thing is that not everything has to be "scientific" or is scientific. I find all the data/jargon/nonsense coming out of Joe Buck's or Rick Sutcliffe's mouth to be sometimes scientific, sometimes really stupid, and almost always really intefering with something beautiful.

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

more on "science"
I realized my comment wasn't quite what I meant. I think probably for the most part sabermetrics and its cousin Moneyball are scientific, in the sense of ther is a certain amount of predictability gained. However, if this discussion was about stem cells or food safety, or unemployment, then science would be critical. But this is about baseball. Baseball, like sex, or food, doesn't need only science to be enjoyed, and sometimes science and objectivity can intefere with its pleasures.

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 5:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

empiricism
You are repeating the most common attack on empiricism made since the enlightenment. You're placing value on being ignorant, and the implication is that anyone who has a more complete understanding can't possibly appreciate it on the same level as you are. It's no less a nonsensical arguement when applied to baseball.

The purest form of baseball is T-Ball. Watching a kid run around the bases in the wrong direction is a pure expression of the joy of the sport. But that's not why I watch the A's. If you're in the mood for beauty and mystery, I would suggest an art museum, a ballet, or a church. Major league baseball isn't a dance, it's a game, and people are trying to win. Playing the game blindfolded and with one's head firmly implanted in the ground is certainly a choice fans and teams are free to make, but I don't really much enjoy watching the Cubs.

by MrIncognito on Dec 14, 2006 6:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Watching a kid run around the bases
in the wrong direction is a pure expression of the joy of the sport."

Which is exactly why some people here still miss Eric Byrnes.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 14, 2006 9:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hysterical
Batman--really, no kidding--can't keyboard right now but he says that was really funny about Byrnesy!

by stlouisblues on Dec 14, 2006 10:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your last sentence
When it comes to baseball, I think just about everyone here would agree with the first half of that sentence, but few with the second half.
In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 6:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

depends on the metrics used and observer bias
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 6:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well, objectively ...
it is rather silly that we spend as much time, money and emotional energy as we all do on the A's ...

Take that, Galileo!

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 6:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

True Believers
There was a book about that topic that came out 3 years ago.
True Believers-The tragic inner life of sports fans
Should be available at any library.

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 6:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

not necessarily ...
What about those among us who desire to have sex with the A's?
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 6:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

all 25 of them?
You'd have to have the stamina of a monkey ...

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 6:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And the vagina of Paris Hilton.
"like a wizard's sleeve."
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought it was like a fart in a mitten
or was that her singing? I can never remember.
"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King

by batgirl on Dec 15, 2006 11:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

or
"you ever throw a hot dog down a hallway?"
--Nebraska--

ThePastime

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 15, 2006 12:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

On Sabermetrics and business of baseball
I said in the main article that Moneyball had hijacked Sabermetrics for its own purposes. To begin with, I don not think this is any kind of conspiracy or Grand Master Plan for Taking Over Bseball. It's more a case of the marketing people not even necessarily that deliberately latching on to a certain tone and audience and going with it. Like any business, the A's want you to feel like you are special for being associated with them, and if Moneyball and rotisserie leagues and sabermetrics can enhance that, that is what is going to rule. Now a substantial audience of baseball fans has been bombarded for years with mass media publicity about a business philosphy (Moneyball) of using a sabermetrics type methodology to evaluate and obtain bargain components (players)and an ever changing inventory of interchangeable parts. This may be a subtle change, but now many of these initiated fans are accustomed to thinking in saber-business terms first, and traditional baseball second, in the sense of the old-fashioned loyalties to communities, careers of favorite individual players and their teams, and it all suits many who now have more of a rotisserie/individual stats-are-my-main-interest kind of identity. Like everywhere else in the marketplace (baseball is certainly not unique in this development)now everything is about money,the A's logo is practically Moneyball, people accept this, and they get on board with it. So, when the A's owners say, hey, we're moving to Fremont to make more money, many of us say, OK, I get it, you have to make a profit, I identify with and "get" your methodology, I do it myself when I manage the salary cap on my fantasy team, I'm a Moneyball fan (I understand all this may change in Silicon Valley), I want to buy into it in the form of tickets and Cisco products and the restaurants and I fell comfortable in this environment which validates me and my status as an insider, and that is what is going to lead us to the promised land. Do any of you, or all of you, already know that there is a blog out there called "Sabernomics"?

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 5:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

would this diary ever have been written...
if Wolff had built the same stadium, in partnership with Cisco, in the Coliseum parking lot?  I doubt it.  You hate the move from your beloved Oakland to Fremont and are simply pursuing a new angle (demonizing sabermetrics and Moneyball) to justify further criticism of "Crisco Field."

Very transparent.

"When I got injured, I felt disrespected. Waaannnh!" - Mark Kotsay

by FoolshGame22 on Dec 14, 2006 5:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ineffective, maybe. Transparent, no.
Actually, I believe the "insider" marketing that happens to use this puzzling identity so many fans seem to feel with management, in which they sahre a feeling of shrewdness and insider-ness, goes way beyond baseball and Fremont.

But you give me an idea. An informal poll. How many devotees of Moneyball out there would want the A's to build in the Coliseum parking lot?

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 14, 2006 5:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Moneyball Devotee
If I like the A's am I a devotee of Moneyball?
I'm not sure what a devotee of moneyball is.
I believe firmly that statistics can be used to improve just about anything. I think the A's have done a good job since Sandy Alderson came (I m guessing by moneyball you mean Alderson and not Beane?) I think the A's are a small market team that doesnt have a lot of money and needs to use it well. I think that we can't afford to pay the kind of money that Giambi or Tejada deserves.
I believe that VORP, ERA+, OPS are better indicators of how valuable a player is than batting average and strike outs.

I'd rather the A's stay in Oakland but thats not going to happen. Stadium deals in California are always a dicey proposition, and it seems like theres lots of real estate people buying teams in CA because they are finding them to be under valued assets. I know San Diego has a big thing going on with the Chargers and a new stadium in Chula Vista as well, plus the Niners moving to Santa Rosa.

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 6:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong Santa: Clara, not Rosa
"...but we're also always open to hearing about other sandwiches if it can make our lunch better." -- Nico, channeling Billy Beane

by iglew on Dec 14, 2006 10:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a Moneyball devotee.
What that means is, I like my team to spot weaknesses and exploit them.

To me, Oakland is a weakness, and clearly has been for some time. It leads to the A's having no option BUT to use Moneyball tactics to stay competitive.

So, to me, the smart Moneyball move would have been to move to Vegas or Portland or Vancouver or Charlotte, where there's money and people and room to grow.

That the A's chose instead to move twenty minutes down the road says to me that they have ABANDONED Moneyball thinking in terms of the stadium, and have leaned back on nostalgia. This is the shortest team move in modern baseball history, and thus it will have limited impact; likely nothing more than a slightly larger draw from the south and a spanky new stadium that will be baseball-specific, have plenty of mod-cons, a lot more class and visual appeal, a friendly city surrounding it, and more dollars spent outside it.

If the evil marketers were in control, you wouldn't have a team left to bitch about, unless you were prepared to move to Monterrey.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

cities
A baseball team in Vegas-I think the gambling issue would make Vegas a bad choice and unlikely to win approval for the move from the league-but the money, and relatively cheap land are there.

Vancouver and Charlotte have both seen professional franchises leave in recent history-mostly do to uncooperative cities/counties.

I don't know much about Portland so no comment on that one. It's a pretty city with a nice downtown area that would make a beautiful place for a ballpark.

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 1:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

more on Portland
I'm guessing the city of Portland and the state of Oregon have a  pretty favorable tax policy as well?

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 1:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not remotely
Their plan to build a baseball stadium was based upon taxing player salaries.
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 15, 2006 8:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Vancouver Canucks sell 18k per night...
...every night. The Vancouver USL soccer team just announced pans for a 15k seat stadium smack dab in the center of the city. The BC Lions drew 50k people to their last game of the season. The short-season rookie ball Vancouver Canadians outdrew the Montreal Expos pretty regularly, when there was such a team in Montreal...

There's plenty of love for sporting teams in this town. Just because the Grizzlies were owned by morons who couldn't build a winning team if Shaq himself were playing in the key, doesn't mean this city of 3m people can't support a well run team.

And there's a Winter Olympics headed this way in 2010 that promises to leave a lot of stadium-worthy land lying around in a few years...

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 8:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hell, a baseball-specific stadium
is a good enough reason in and of it self to justify the A's leaving the Colesium.
This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.
A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Dec 15, 2006 7:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Go profits, beat losses!
This thesis is more reasonable than your initial one.  Here you have sabernomics-y fan base tutored on winning through value while handicapped by revenue limitations.   The group overlays some with fantasy baseball GM sorts, creating fans who root for the Organization as well as the Team, and thus accept a revenue creation model a la Fremont.

I still don't buy your cause and effect, but at least this one doesn't junk up the argument with the modern stat straw man.

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 14, 2006 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, seriously.
But I think most fans here enjoy the new direction.  Apparently you are not one of them.  Your attempts to try and influence those that do enjoy this new direction may not be all that successful, though, I imagine.  I could be wrong but I doubt it.  The future seems brighter, more exciting, and competitive to those of us who enjoy what the Athletics are trying to do...if nothing else, it sure the hell is more intellectually stimulating to analyze a baseball team in its all of its parts and capacities.  Do you or do you not agree that the content of baseball discussion, on net, has increased immensely since the introduction of Lewis's book and the newest direction of the Athletics' organization (and other teams as well)?  
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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 14, 2006 5:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hard to prove
I don't know how much the book Moneyball has had on baseball discussion on the net.
If you look at it, every conversation on the net has been vastly improved since 2003.
From Lawn and Garden care to cooking, you name it-its gotten better and more numerous. Probably alot of it is a function of improved and opensource bulletin board technology.
We would have to create a stat called Value Over Replacement Book or VORB for short and then analyze what Moneyball has really been worth to the Baseball discussion online in general. Over say a book like Game of Shadows or Fever Pitch.

Moneyball was the NY Times #1 business book for 2003 and that made the book a success across many disciplines and its certainly well known in the business world-but has that increased the number of baseball discussions online?

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 6:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, poor word choice
"On net" -- as in, bad discussion subtracted from good discussion still leaving you with better discussion than before -- not to be confused with "on the net".  I shouldn't have used it because it wasn't a good spot for it anyway.
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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 14, 2006 6:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

whoops
sorry, I misunderstood you there.
I agree with what your saying. It certainly gave me a better understanding of the A's. As far as a better understanding of the game, I'm not sure if its reading book Moneyball, or just the extra year of experience or if the people I talk about baseball with are getting older etc.
Only a few people I know have read Moneyball though-more people for business than baseball.

I think it special to us the way Fever Pitch is to BoSox fans

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 1:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Once I'll let slip by
but when you associate Fever Pitch with baseball a second time I feel constrained to slap you upside the head.

Fever Pitch is a book about footie. Its horrendous bastard celluloid offspring should never be mentioned in any sports-sensitive company, and to suggest that it is to Red Sox fans what Moneyball is to A's fans beggars belief.

</rant>

"Even if you know the deck is stacked in your favor, you still have to have the discipline to trust the math and the cojones to go to the ATM." BB

by green star oakland on Dec 15, 2006 8:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

explanation
I meant the 2005 remake-not the movie about Arsenal or the book(I dindnt know enough about premier league to follow some of what went on in the book).

As for special, I meant something about a team that transcends sports boundries-Moneyball was successful in the business field, Fever Pitch in the date night movie community. Both featured a sports team as the backdrop, but were stories about something of wider interest.

Some books/movies are purely about the team and the team dynamic or a player. Like alot of the football movies or Eight Men Out etc. But the above two were  successes in realms outside of sports.

Almost every other sports book is primarily a success with sports fans.

All of us A's fans love Moneyball, but alot of other baseball fans thought it was "ok" and a couple of people I tried to get to read the book, never finished it. They had other books they felt were more important to read.

Most of the good reviews for Moneyball and Fever Pitch came from non baseball people, I think this caused a lot of new interest from non baseball people to return to baseball after some time away.

Watching/reading all the scenes of the game etc
probably had some people going -"I remember I used to go to the games all the time, but now I'm (married/busy at work/saving for a house) I just havent made time for that lately. I think I will try and go to a few more games this year"

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 9:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

*edit
*As for special, I meant an intellectual property featuring a sports team, that transcends sports boundries

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 9:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

batman responds
Batman wants you to know that VORB's is the concept he's been searching for for most of his adult life! I think VORB explains life. Alternate forms could be VORG, Value Of Replacement Glove, VORS, Value Of Replacement Sandwich. Thanks for the laugh and if his back gets better, he'll be back to get into the fray again.

by stlouisblues on Dec 14, 2006 10:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Economics and efficiency
We're finally getting at an almost valid point here. The A's owners (and the league as a whole) have been showing a kind of ruthless efficiency in trying to make money from the franchise - shutting out the less affluent fans, asking for oodles of public money to stay in Oakland, and eventually concocting a scheme to use the team as leverage to make millions in condo and retail development in Fremont. At the same time, as detailed in Moneyball, Beane et al. have used economic types of analysis to try to increase the teams efficiency in terms of wins per payroll dollar.

But the problem, as has already been pointed out multiple times, is that there is no causal connection between what the team does on the business end and what they do on the baseball end. Replace Billy Beane with Billy Bavasi, Dave Littlefield, or Jim Hendry and you won't have a team that's any less ruthless, merely one that's less competent, and a lot less fun to watch for statheads and traditionalists alike.

Indeed, the fact that baseball is a business is hardly a new development, and shouldn't be a revelation to an A's fan. Just look at how Connie Mack or Charlie Finley sold off star players for cash, or how the Yankees of the 1950s effectively used the A's as a farm team.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 6:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I notice you were careful to avoid my maxim
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 6:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't even think about it
If I recall correctly, the monkeyball maxim is that winning doesn't matter to a team's bottom line.
I don't agree with that in its full generality, but now that you mention it, I've said in the past something that's a weaker version of the same thing, and is similar to what I was getting at above: that some owners try to make money by winning, and others try to make money by losing, and as much as I don't like what Wolff has done with the stadium, I'm still grateful that he's the former type of greedy bastard rather than the latter.

Either that or you're referring to a magazine, in which case, yes, I was careful to avoid your Maxim because the pages are stuck together.

In the stands the home crowd scatters For the turnstiles

by andeux on Dec 14, 2006 6:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Some profit by winning, some by losing
Very nicely put.
"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 14, 2006 6:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Greedy bastards ...
at least the owners of the Royals settle for being really, really rich ... Wolfeco insist on not only being really, really rice -- but they want to win too.

by devo on Dec 14, 2006 7:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed
The Andeux Corollary
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 7:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm groveresque in the precision of my capitals
Five dollah BART bridge hats for Christmas this year! ~ FSU @('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 14, 2006 7:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Quick question:
You say they tried to get oodles of public money to stay in Oakland, whereas I recall them saying they wouldn't need anything of the sort.
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

this reminds me of ann coulter
saying that the only people who hate america more than the terrorists are the liberals. come on, dude.

by Nick86 on Dec 14, 2006 9:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Liberals love America!
It's the paternalists and authoritarians who have disdain for the institutions which She has in place that allow us to govern ourselves [either that, or they love the institutions power and want to form the institutions to their own preferences].  The problem is -- and this is key -- hardly anyone you'll find is a true liberal any longer...many of us cannot tolerate individual choice.  Coulter is just one of many that cannot but she's not alone...many people who call themselves "liberals" today are authoritarians and paternalists in their actions/advocacy.  None of them hate America but they sure the hell do not like for people to be self-governing in most situations.  The trend, in my opinion, is sickening and the meanings of words no longer mean what the used to.  The terrorists really do not have to win if we keep beating up each other instead of just leaving each other the hell alone, to our own afairs, as long a we're not doing direct harm to one another.
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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 15, 2006 10:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

this is from a rob neyer chat
Q: Do you ever find your statistically driven method of approaching baseball to be boring? I fully endorse it, and I do believe that it does present a more lucid and logical avenue in predicting how players, teams, leagues, etc will do. Yet, this economics-esque technique sometimes makes watching and following baseball seem more chored. In addition, the glorious "x-factor" is not factored into your "equations," and the unexpected always seems to contribute a significant variable to the endless numbers from which you (we) attempt to act at a crystal ball. Thoughts?

Rob Neyer: As long as knowledge is incomplete it's not boring, and our knowledge of baseball will always be incomplete. There's just so much we don't know, even with all our fancy figuring.

by Nick86 on Dec 14, 2006 9:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Anti-Moneyball
What team is the polar opposite of the moneyball A's?

by apilgrim on Dec 14, 2006 9:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yankees.
For sure.
"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the cubs
probably are. they drew the fewest walks of any team in baseball last year. and they just signed jason marquis to a terrible contract. but that was because they looked at his VORP or something and decided he was good, not because Jim Hendry is a terrible GM.

by Nick86 on Dec 14, 2006 9:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Capitalism & Baseball
I don't get why folks get so mad about owners who try to make a profit and sell to the most affluent fans they can get.

Am I going to be able to afford my 22 game package to Cisco field?  Not a chance.  Am I going to miss it?  Hell yeah.  I'm sad about the move to Fremont.  But it's completely for selfish reasons.  I think those protesting the move are being just as greedy as they are accusing Wolff of being.  It reeks of hypocrisy.

I'm a firm believer in the power of capitalism, both to make society better off in the long run, and  provide me opportunities to better my situation in the short-run.  If Mr. Wolff can find fans who are willing to pay more than I am, then more power to him.  Baseball is a business first and foremost, and it's his perogative to attempt to earn as much money off of it as possible.

I'm not a big fan of screwing over loyal fans.  Is Wolff being selfish by moving the team?  Absolutely.  But is it selfish of fans to demand the A's stay?  Damn right.  Most any argument criticizing businesses for attempting to make a profit doesn't hold any water in my mind.

It's getting late, and this isn't as well put as I would like, but I think I've gotten across the heart of my point.

by booya on Dec 14, 2006 11:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

At the risk of starting an argument...
.. I don't see Lew moving the team twenty minutes down the road as being selfish.

Sorry, I just don't see that - at all. You want to talk about selfish, go to talk to old Colts football fans, or Expos fans, or Cleveland Browns fans, or hell - even Raiders fans.

The A's managed to expand their draw, get a new stadium without public money, and nearly get to the World Series, all without any payroll and by moving just a few miles down the interstate.

That's pretty freaking applauseworthy, if you ask me.

"Kotsay is 31... Kotsay's back is 127." - Jeepers

by Ozzz on Dec 15, 2006 1:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No argument here
I'm more in your camp.

But I've read a lot about owners ruining the game in pursuit of the almight dollar.

If they want to earn money that bad, they're going to have to constantly work to improve their product, which is good for everyone.

by booya on Dec 15, 2006 8:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's something to that
Businesses get themselves in deep trouble when they start thinking about their financials more than their customers.  People CAN stop caring, even with customers as fiercely loyal as baseball fans.
"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 15, 2006 8:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By "deep trouble"...
...are you implying that this trouble will not eventually find its way to the business's financial statement?  I really want to know the secret here...you know, how does a business turn off the bulk of its customers and still somehow show growing profits.
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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 15, 2006 10:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, not at all
The trouble will most CERTAINLY reflect itself in the financial statement, eventually.  Having worked for such a company, I mean the obsession with improving margins without considering the affect it has on the product.

The only way it works is if you have a captive market.

"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Dec 15, 2006 11:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Line of thinking is extremely sad
I don't think your logic goes to a correct conclusion at all. Almost everyone here can enjoy when there's a great moment in baseball without being "tainted" by all the stats we have. You can easily look at something like Frank Thomas hitting a dramatic homer and enjoy it for what it is. Secondly, I think the stats are just another way of looking at players and baseball. It just adds an extra dimension. It certainly does NOT force anyone to pay attention to them or only enjoy baseball if they understand them. It also certainly does NOT make a ton of money. The statheads really don't contribute that many revenue sources. There's some websites, some books, and obviously some fantasy baseball(but that has a lot more casual fan ramifications too). PURITY IS NOT AFFECTED BY STATS. In fact I'd challenge that stats ARE PURE and TRUE. (except for poorly tracked stats like errors cough)

by tomoyo on Dec 15, 2006 12:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It is.
But your team just traded Chris Snelling.

(Too soon?)

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Dec 15, 2006 7:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You just made
A despressed M's fan cry. I hope you're happy.
Visiting from LL.

by Graham on Dec 15, 2006 10:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

he makes people cry all the time
but usually by boring them to tears
"San Jose A's of Fremont" is embarassing

by ArakSOT on Dec 15, 2006 12:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

BATMAN'S final comment
Moneyball is the public face of the  A's in many ways. Moneyball is based on sabermetrics. So, how can we say that sabermetrics is not a part of the A's marketing?

It's called MONEYball, not Smallball or Powerball, or Billyball or Matzohball. And it's not just about the A's. Sabermetrics, and other kinds of modern baseball analysis, developed by real, sincere, knowledgeable baseball fans, have been expropriated by corporations throughout MLB to make money. At the same time, the fans have become accustomed to looking at baseball as a business, and the identity of many has shifted to some degree to the outlook of the owners, and their emphasis on sabermetric-style ways of evaluating talent and budgets. So much of what is discussed on Athletics Nation is about the business of baseball: free agency, player ratings and value, contracts, trades, stadium deals, etc. Not as much is about the watching of the game: "Did you see the way Andruw Jones dove for that ball? I don't think Edmonds gets to that ball." Some fans are busy with "owning" their fantasy teams and juggling numbers and salaries in order to win and succeed. Others are rooting for the current generation of young, glamorous MBA General Managers to win with their shrewdness and business sense and mastery of the mysteries of VORPS and ERA+. My impression is that many fans now root for and identify with management and their strategizing, as much or more than they do for players, and their strategies and see themselves as part of the expert elite who understand all the sophisticated "scientific" analysis, and marketing plays to this--with promotion of books like Moneyball and supporting a constant mystique and chatter and conversation among the fans who "get" the importance of the insider stats and evaluating talent in this way. Fans are now not as attached to individual players, teams, and communities. Numbers, not personalities, are more and more what matter. To not recognize that this current business baseball culture and marketing tries to appeal to a form of elitism and "insider" identity-much of which is based on esoteric stats and, more broadly, familiarity with the business of baseball and even embracing of it as a form of entertainment and even one's identity--and that this marketing strategy has impacted the game, helped to allow the A['s to justify their move to Fremont among fans who are now looking at the team's problems as money and VORP-based and has some significant connection to the philosophy called sabermetrics( or modern baseball analysis and evaluation) is not reasonable in my opinion.

I feel like I just wrote a legal brief. Ycchh.

by froggiethegremlin on Dec 15, 2006 12:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Funny ...
yeah, they did make some good commercials on moneyball in their marketing efforts:

"They're undervalued, but they can play"
"There is an 'A' in moneyball"

and who can forget:

"Moneyball is the product of that which does not have money"

Classics, every single one.

by devo on Dec 15, 2006 1:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

fantasy baseball
I think alot of the things your discussing are spin offs of the rise of fantasy sports/fantasy baseball and not the book or strategy Moneyball.

by apilgrim on Dec 15, 2006 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sample size problems
I don't think you can draw conclusions from off-season posts on AN even about A's fans, much less baseball fans generally.  As much as we and even many media types think this site is empblematic of fans, it really isn't.  Most fans I hear at the Coli don't know OPS from OPD, even when they're being cuffed.  And the off-season chatter is always going to be roster and budget focused, even among Yankee fans...that's what winter is all about.

At least your cause/effect and sample size issues are consistent with the general anti-information posture MrIncognito deftly observes above.

"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 15, 2006 2:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think much of what you say here is true...
But, I don't think Moneyball or sabermetrics has a damn thing to do with the A's move to Fremont.  Had it not been for Moneyball, they'd probably have moved from the Bay Area long ago.

But, I do agree with you about one thing... the aura of infallibility exuded by sabermetricians is sometimes annoying.  After all, the elitist, insider, esoteric stat-loving geeks did agree that it was smart of Beane to keep Kotsay over Byrnes.  So, maybe you're on to something here with your thesis.  ;-)

"When I got injured, I felt disrespected. Waaannnh!" - Mark Kotsay

by FoolshGame22 on Dec 15, 2006 4:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

LCJ's response:
This looks like a compilation of the ideas of others, which you have recently read, digested, and now are reiterating in your own words.  Did learning the thoughts of the "other side" [I forgotten what you had called us] help you out at all?  Did you learn some things?

Are you really done posting in this thread or is it that you are done posting in the third person?  Are you done posting on this site period?  Are you giving up that easily?

You do understand that problem that you'll have now, right?  You'll read this and you will want to respond to my sarcasm and rhetorical questions but you will not be able to because you're post title has a finality to it...to respond means breaking your word to us.  I mean I could basically start talking about your mother right now and you'd be steaming mad.  At this point you cannot even write back and tell us that she's deceased without breaching our trust that you are really done here.

I've seen this a few times on the web and I get this twisted pleasure in thinking of how I can torment the person who writes that they are, in essence, giving the last word [in fact, I've seen it here once and the poster wrote it, wrote it for my benefit before they went into exile].  But I don't typically have a beef with the person who writes such `last word' screeds; and in those cases I don't respond but the twisted-pleasure thinking is always in play.  In your case though, I do have a beef and hope you're getting tweaked.  You deserve it, too, Phil Milo Wannabe.  Stand up straight and stop slumping your shoulders; your knuckles are dragging!
 

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by LowcountryJoe on Dec 15, 2006 7:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

kendall was awesome this year
any diss of jk seriously stretches credibility.  he was iron on defense and willamsesque at low-power hits.  his hustle was worth every penny.

by notah8er on Dec 15, 2006 4:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

He's not a f'in dimwit ...
Batman has had some worthwhile ideas and is brushing against a discussion very worth having.

His problem is that he is trying to make his point more profound than it is -- world shaking instead of just important. He bit off more than what he could chew (or that was reasonable to chew), and, like most, he then felt obligated to defend it. Not an abnormal, irrational or dimitted response by any means.

The basic foundation of what baseball is and what it means to be a baseball fan is very much in question in this day and age. Growing up, my parents could never afford to take me to a Niners game -- not with $50 tickets and $25 parking -- they just couldn't. So I watched the games on TV and enjoyed them and to this day am a devoit Niners fan. I only own a couple pieces of Niners garb, though. I am willing to miss a game because those twits in the NFL are deciding to wage war against cable networks nationwide. It's just not the same.

The A's are my primary team and that's almost entirely due to the fact that they are the team that my parents could take me to see in person -- and that I could take myself to see as a teenager.

The changes taking place now don't affect me that much because I am now relatively affluent -- but what about the next generation of me? The lower middle class kid who just wants something to believe in? When a baseball game costs nearly as much as a football game, where will his attentions head?

I'll tell you what -- I don't know the answer to that question, but if I can figure it out, I will definitely invest in it.

by devo on Dec 16, 2006 12:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

TWO-DOUBLE-OUGHT!
NUNA-NUNA-NUNA-NUNA, NUNA-NUNA-NUNA-NUNA.......BATMAAAAAN!

by mikeA on Dec 16, 2006 1:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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