Worst Contract in Baseball History

...he'd probably end up swiping 40.

Of course, he'd probably get caught stealing another 40.

Assuming, of course, Kendall could get to base 80 times a year.

The point I'm trying to make is, a guy whose major asset is speed, but gets caught 27% of the time, isn't really a net gain.

He makes more outs than anyone because he plays more than anyone.

It's true that he's incredibly durable, which is very significant.  But if his outs created is just a function of being a leadoff hitter who plays 162 games, he should also be getting on base a lot and maybe even scoring a lot of runs (although like RBIs RS is very context-dependent), right?

Wrong:  he's been in the top 10 in times on base once (8th in 2004) and never in the top 10 in RS.

He's making lots of outs because he plays a lot, he's not that good a hitter, he almost never walks and he gets thrown out a lot trying to steal.

OPS isn't a very useful metric for evaluating him, because you're not paying him for his sluggling.

The other element of OPS is on-base percentage --  nothing to brag about in Pierre's case, either (.350 career, last 2 years at .330 and .324, which suck).  And don't forget that about 20 times a year, on those rare occasions when he does slap a single to left or beat out a bunt, he has a 25 to 30% chance of making an out by getting himself thrown out trying to steal second.

You're paying for his ability to steal 60 bases a year, while annoying the opposing pitcher.

Well, presumably, the Dodgers are paying him to help them win baseball games.  And the way you win is to score more runs than your opponent.  No one has ever proven a connection between SB and wins, or "annoying the opposing pitcher" and wins.  

In Pierre's case, his best season, 2004, was also his worst as a base-stealer.  In 2004 he went .324/.374/.407, set a career high in OPS+ (107, his only year over 100), and a career high in runs created per 27 outs (5.43, discounting his first full season in Colorado, where runs used to be so easy to score).  On the bases, however, he was 45 for 69, a success rate of only 65%.  He probably would have scored more runs and helped the Marlins win more games if he'd never tried to steal at all that year, and he certainly would have helped more by going 8 for 10 or something, rather than creating 24 unnecessary outs on the bases.

The irony about SB is that steals sort of simulate slugging % (gaining an extra base) -- without increasing the odds of driving in a run -- in exchange for reducing OBP (the threat of getting thrown out).  The same logic that makes OBP more valuable than slugging % makes stealing bases a pretty low-value skill for a leadoff hitter, at least one who makes as many outs on the bases as Pierre.

In a market in which speed-burning, high average contact hitters are coveted by many, he has quite a lot of value.  Unless he declines sharply, he'll be tradeable.

I'm not sure how high this market is -- someone like Furcal has much more power than Pierre, for instance -- but few people have gone bankrupt underestimating the intelligence of baseball executives.  So it's certainly possible that they can unload him on someone in a few years (Giants?).  But then again, if he slows down a bit, which is pretty likely as he enters his 30s, I think he'll fall off the table -- he still won't have any power, or any strike-zone judgment, but with less speed he'll start hitting .260, with an OBP of .300, and 25 SB a year, and less range in CF.

And then even Brian Sabean won't be interested in him.

I don't see how being a great or in this case above-average base stealer is going to make you valuable. The main reason rickey henderson was an instant hall of famer was his combination of walks and power. His stealing did help, but not as much as his insane walk total, his high batting average, his 20+ homer power. Juan Pierre has no walks to speak of, only a decent batting average(See Ichiro for someone who's actually great in batting average), no power, and nowhere near the base stealing capabilities of Rickey. I'd say base stealing might be worth 1 million at best for a great player. That still doesn't make up for the rest of his great deficiencies.

Kinda like the way we love Loaiza.

One good month does not a conract make.

One try... one right answer. :-)