Loaiza over Harden?

by willcmatthews on Oct 9, 2006 9:35 AM PDT Comment 16 comments

I'm not sure that the A's have made the right decision on this one. Sure, starting Loaiza in game two instead of Harden is the safe move. We can pretty much bank on what we will get: something resembling a quality outing, meaning 6IP or so and something like 3 ER allowed. Loaiza has been solid down the stretch - more than solid in fact; in many ways he led the starting rotation through a sizzling August.

But to me, this is not a time to go with safe, to utilize one option over another because you feel more assured of what you will get. Opportunities like this don't come around very often, and as a result you must act accordingly. In order to be the last team standing, you need to be able to take risks, to go all in and live with the result. This is the ALCS. This is not a time to hedge our bets, and I feel like that is exaclty what the A's are doing by playing safe and starting Loaiza.

For the past few days, as I have thought about what this upcoming A's-Tigers matchup might look like, as I have considered what the turning points might be and who the difference makers might be, I couldn't help but think about the man named Rich Harden that we have in our back pocket. I have said to a number of people in recent days somewhat increduously that we managed to sweep the Twins without even having to use Harden. And I haven't been able to keep myself from thinking that being able to infuse him into our starting rotation for the ALCS might well be the difference, that Harden might well be the difference-maker.

But now? Loaiza was huge for us in August. But can anyone really envision him being the kind of difference-maker that Harden has the potential to be? Harden has superstar stuff but now he is only going to get one ALCS start. We're hedging our bets instead of going all out and I just can't help but think that this - this decision to go with Loaiza instead of Harden in game 2 and for two starts - might in fact be the kind of turning point that none of us want to see.

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Harden has pitched about 2 innings since 1943.

Loaiza is the safer choice.

For me the real question is, Harden or Haren?

"It's time to blow this team up." - Oaktoon, July 2006

by Ozzz on Oct 9, 2006 9:40 AM PDT reply actions

Loaiza is the better choice

His home-road splits tilt heavily in favor of him pitching at home.
If we can't score 4 runs in any given game, I'd be hard-pressed to say we deserve to win that game. That said, if Loaiza goes 6 and gives up 3, even against the Gambler, I think we have a chance.

by Rickeyfan on Oct 9, 2006 9:49 AM PDT reply actions

point #1

I don't know how much that was taken into account, seeing as he pitched in Minnesota last round.

If I had cast the 11th vote in that meeting (and since when do the A's have 9 other decision-makers besides Beane? Heh, front office is much more democratic than I thought), it would've been still tied. Because I would've voted for Zito. Because Rich Harden is my Game 1 starter. Because Rich Harden is my best pitcher. If those last 3 sentences were overly simplistic, they were designed to be so...as a parallel for just how simplistic this decision is. The guys whose mediocrity dictates that you factor in things like home-road splits and personnel matchups in order to create favorable matchups...well, in the playoffs, I'd rather have those guys coming out of my bullpen. Or starting 1 game max. You live and die with your most talented players. That's why Bradley and Chavez stayed third and fifth in the order, respectively, despite stellar performances by lesser players.

Who here would argue with the fact that Rich Harden is our most talented pitcher? Fuck Game 2, let him come out and dominate 6 innings in game 1. Set the tone. Zito could have just as easily gotten shelled in game 1 of the Minnesota series rather than outdueling Santana...I consider it one of the luckiest pitching performances I've ever witnessed. Forget the notion of his being crafty from the second inning on...he couldn't locate anything, plain and simple. For that game alone, out of the three, I would say the Twins lost the game as opposed to the A's winning it. But it's not like Loaiza won them Game 2 either.

Let Rich pitch, let Rich pitch, let Rich pitch...

I am no drunkard, I'm a hard-working man.

by Cutthemullet on Oct 9, 2006 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Loaiza over Harden

Before the playoffs started, wouldn't we all agree that the Minnesota Twins were a better team than the Detroit Tigers?

I think E-LO did an admirable job against the Twins in Minnesota. The Twins (especially Torii Hunter) are a team that "owns" Loaiza, and he/we took home a "W".

Now we get E-LO at home vs. the Detroit Tigers. Loaiza has good command of the strike zone. The Tigers know this.

E-LO is a veteran, and knows the weaknesses of the Tigers (free swingin'), and will be able to exploit those weaknesses more effectively than an unpredictable Rich Harden (IMO).

This seems like a very favorable matchup for him and the A's.

COME ON, OAKLAND, COME ON!

by Colorado Fan on Oct 9, 2006 9:56 AM PDT reply actions

Zito on KNBR

Eric Byrnes is subbing for Radnich on KNBR and will interview Zito at 11am PT.

"I'm like a freshly waxed car, letting everything bead right off you." - Barry Zito

by thebigbz on Oct 9, 2006 10:29 AM PDT reply actions

Loaiza over Harden

Against any other team I think Loaiza is the unquestionable choice because of his consistency and because of very solid performances down the stretch. However, Harden against the Tigers seems like a match made in heaven to me-- so what if Harden struggles with his command, everyone except Guillen will just swing at it anyway, lets hope he misses low.

Nevertheless, criticizing the A's for playing it safe is foolish. We will still get one start out of our wild card pitcher and we will get 2 starts each (if necessary) out of our proven staff, the same staff that got us to the playoffs to begin with.

The A's are a better team than the Tigers because of their consistency, I'm not so sure we want to put Mr. Inconsistent on the hill twice right now.

by SwisherSweet on Oct 9, 2006 10:46 AM PDT reply actions

Harden

Is Harden in Arizona today to pitch a game down there? That was the rumor.

If that's the case, he'll start Game4 - Saturday's Game?

COME ON, OAKLAND, COME ON!

by Colorado Fan on Oct 9, 2006 10:47 AM PDT reply actions

I read this morning that if...

...Harden pitches an instructional league game in Arizona, he would be set up rest-wise to start Game 4 and that that is the direction the A's brass is leaning. In fact, the decision has basically been made but not yet announced. The Game 3 starter is basically on line to start a game 7 so that, I think, is where the decision to go Haren 3 and Harden 4 turned...

by willcmatthews on Oct 9, 2006 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions

My biggest fear against Detroit

is throwing too many strikes (not usually the concern one has with pitchers!). Haren and Loaiza could pound the strike zone to a fault; that's my biggest worry. Not a bad "biggest worry" to have, but still--waste some pitches, guys, and the decision to go with ELo and Haren twice each will look a whoooole lot better.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 9, 2006 11:09 AM PDT reply actions

If you factor in

Harens splitter then I wouldnt worry about it.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch." - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Oct 9, 2006 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Boy....

....I sure would like to know who voted for Harden and who voted for Loaiza. I mean if it's Billy Beane, David Forst, Ken Macha, Curt Young and Bob Geren all on one side, does it matter what the other side thinks?

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 9, 2006 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

I believe the other 5 were

Gerald Perry, Brad Fisher, Clay Wood, Brandon Buckley, and Cindi.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 9, 2006 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions

It will be really interesting

if Beane wanted Harden but let Macha make the call.

by boilerdan on Oct 9, 2006 1:53 PM PDT reply actions

I'd be most happy if

Macha and Young were on the same page. I'm pretty sure they know best. Billy's obviously way up there too.

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 9, 2006 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

One thing of note

As some BP guys mentioned, the Tigers are a great fastball hitting team, so Harden may not match up well against them.

That being said, I would still have definitely chose Harden.

by Nick86 on Oct 9, 2006 2:15 PM PDT reply actions

That's because there's a difference

between being a great "fastball hitting team" and being a "great fastball" hitting team. :-}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 9, 2006 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions