Elias Player Rankings!

by grover on Oct 31, 2006 8:23 PM PST

This is how compensation is awarded to teams who lose FA. Type A FA costs the signing team their 1st round pick unless they pick within the 1st 15 choices of the draft. In that case the signing team loses their 2nd round pick. The team who loses the FA also gains a supplimental 1st round pick. This is a sandwich pick that comes between the 1st and 2nd rounds.

When a team loses a Type B FA they receive a supplimental 1st round pick. When a team loses a Type C FA they receive a supplimental 2nd round pick.

Oakland notables:

Zito (A)
Thomas (B)
Payton (B)

Other notables:

Ted Lilly (B)
Mark Mulder (B)
Aaron Fultz (A)
D. Dellucci (A)
Carlos Lee (A)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-10-31-elias-rankings.htm#nl

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Payton is good news.

by mikeA on Oct 31, 2006 8:20 PM PST reply actions

Well, if Arby is offered, there goes Dellucci

Mulder is still an option though, because he will not be offered Arbitration (He'd make way too much money for the Cards to do it).

by Zonis on Oct 31, 2006 9:29 PM PST reply actions

Bernie Williams is a Type C

If we can convince him to end his NY allegiance, he might not be a bad option. Even in his decline, Williams (101 OPS+) was a better hitter than Jay Payton (94 OPS+)was last year. He would be a very nice role player on our team. I do not think he's worth counting on as an everday LF. But when Kotsay misses time, Williams can play a corner OF spot (with Bradley sliding into CF). He can DH a bit if our regular DH (Frank) needs some time off. Plus he can actually take a walk, unlike certain Jay Paytons.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Oct 31, 2006 9:44 PM PST reply actions

Bernie

When I go to my happy place, Bernie Williams is definately not chasing balls around CF.

by MrIncognito on Nov 1, 2006 4:22 PM PST up reply actions

Catalanotto just qualified as Type A

Cross him off your Christmas wish list.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Oct 31, 2006 9:57 PM PST reply actions

World to end at 11.

"It's time to blow this team up." - Oaktoon, July 2006

by Ozzz on Oct 31, 2006 10:00 PM PST up reply actions

In that case

I'm going to bed and try to have sex with my wife one last time.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Oct 31, 2006 10:02 PM PST up reply actions

Me too!

Can I go first?

"It's time to blow this team up." - Oaktoon, July 2006

by Ozzz on Oct 31, 2006 10:40 PM PST up reply actions

"try to"?

as your doctor if viagra is right for you

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 31, 2006 10:49 PM PST up reply actions

"K" makes for comedy

It wasn't a question of my ability but of her willingness. The poor schmuck who went in before me got thrown out the bedroom window about 1.2 seconds after walking into the room. That indicated to me she wasn't in the mood.

<sigh>

At least I didn't take a fall out of a two story window... so I got that going for me, which is nice.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 6:00 AM PST up reply actions

What's funny about these rankings...

...is who gets them.

Our top ranking 1B, DH or OF, and the only type A in that bunch, is Mr Nick Swisher, who I'd suggest had a pretty ordinary season if you count out his explosive first month.

On middle infielders and 3Bs, Chavez and Ellis get A rankings, again, despite average to below average years. Kendall gets one at catcher, though I'd take B-rated Johjima in a swap any time.

Zito, Haren, Loaiza and Blanton(!) get it as starters (Loaiza ranks just below the way more expensive AJ Burnett and the way more recognized as a good pitcher Kenny Rogers), while Street, Duke and Kiko (!) get it in relief.

That's a hefty helping of A-grade talent that we've got, but Thomas, Bradley, and Kotsay miss out.

"It's time to blow this team up." - Oaktoon, July 2006

by Ozzz on Oct 31, 2006 10:10 PM PST reply actions

Don't forget

The rankings are based on three years of performance data. (Although I'm not sure what happens when they only have two years worth of data...ala Haren, Blanton, Swisher.) That helps explain why Thomas didn't get Type A status and Kendall did.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 5:45 AM PST up reply actions

It pretty much all has to do with playing time

If you play a lot, you'll get an A or B. Its as simple as that.

I mean, look at it. I wouldn't say we were even a decent offensive team the last 3 years, but look at this:

C1: Jason Kendall 70.476 A
1B: Nick Swisher 69.167 A
2B: Mark Ellis 69.925 A
3B: Eric Chavez 75.974 A
SS: Bobby Crosby 59.740 B
LF: Jay Payton 52.083 B
RF: Milton Bradley 63.333 B
CF: Mark Kotsay 53.333 B
DH: Frank Thomas 63.333 B

Basically, if you lose a starter, you get a draft pick or two.

Now if you asked me who I thought would deserve an A, B or C from this lineup, I'd have probaly said:

C1: Jason Kendall C
1B: Nick Swisher A
2B: Mark Ellis C
3B: Eric Chavez B
SS: Bobby Crosby C
LF: Jay Payton C
RF: Milton Bradley B
CF: Mark Kotsay C
DH: Frank Thomas A

by Zonis on Oct 31, 2006 10:57 PM PST reply actions

Kevin Millar A??!!!

It it's about playing time, why is Iguchi a B while Polanco is an A? Or why are Cliff Floyd, Jim Edmonds and Derek Lee As, while Adam LaRoche and Jeff Francouer's B's, and Prince Fielder isn't even given a grade?

Mark Lowe is a C while Keith Foulke is a B?

Trying to figure out the logic behind the list is a waste of time.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Nov 1, 2006 12:20 AM PST up reply actions

its over 3 years

by Zonis on Nov 1, 2006 8:14 AM PST up reply actions

Thomas was so close

to being an A, only off by .3 points.

I demand a recount!!!!

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Nov 1, 2006 5:11 AM PST reply actions

So the A's should

play Kendall as much a possible next year. Then when he signs with another team, the A's get two 1st round picks! Will another team give up their first round pick to sign Kendall? I hope so.

I've been wrong before. I still can't believe that houses in Saratoga keep selling for 2 million or more. Who buys them?

by Steve @ Athletics Nation on Nov 1, 2006 7:37 AM PST reply actions

The A's won't be offering

Ken-Doll arbi ...

same deal as Dye -- he would be guaranteed to make far too much (the max 20% pay cut would leave him around $10m).

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 9:31 AM PST up reply actions

Does that mean that the AN-crazies

will come out of the woodwork when Kendall hits 300/400/500 for the World Champion Orioles in 2008?

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 1, 2006 9:37 AM PST up reply actions

Uh, yeah

I don't think Kendall could slug .500 in a little league park. Against little league pitching.

I'm pretty sure the max 20% pay cut only applies to pre-free agency cases, and that a team can make whatever arbitration offer they want to a player eligible for free agency. In practice, though, arbitrators would never award a pay cut on the order of 70% for someone like Kendall.

Some are sabermetricians.

by andeux on Nov 1, 2006 9:42 AM PST up reply actions

He'd have a lot of

frustrating fly-outs to the warning track.

by mikeA on Nov 1, 2006 9:54 AM PST up reply actions

He totally could ...

his line would be .533/.750/.545

Downright Ruthian!

Are you sure about the 20% not applying to FA eligible arbi cases? Even if it a doesn't a 30% cut is still north of $9m which would be a tad expensive.

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 10:55 AM PST up reply actions

Pretty sure

Under the old CBA, it's article XX B. (3)
"If the Player [a pending free agent] accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI, provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI."

Some are sabermetricians.

by andeux on Nov 1, 2006 12:07 PM PST up reply actions

If you can quote chapter and verse ...

I think I can just take your word for it ...

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

andeux's pappy raised him on the CBA

andeux as a lad was a charismatic spork-handlin' son of a sabermetric man. They went out preachin' the VORP 'mongst the heathen.

but jesus--rhyming is a pain in the ass! -- Rubin Sierra @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 1, 2006 3:16 PM PST up reply actions

Imagine

Imagine what he would do to some 11 year old who tried to slide in high at home plate!

Rickey Henderson: 35, 24, hall of fame!

by Athletics fan and runner on Nov 2, 2006 11:28 PM PST up reply actions

I think Kendall will resign this year

So that his contract will be reduced and he will have a couple more years added on.

He is a Beane favorite the pitchers love him, he loves it here and as much shit as he takes on this board for his ability to hit into a double play he still hit around 300, and is a leader of the clubhoouse.

He will be here past 2007, Suzuki will be his backup in 2008 and take over in 2009 with kendall still overseeing him and catching 50 games or so.

by Bud Light on Nov 1, 2006 9:51 AM PST reply actions

compensation

I'm pretty sure type C free agents no longer carry any kind of compensation under the new CBA. Is this year's draft still operating under the old agreement? And didn't the type B compensation get moved back to 2nd round sandwich picks?

The USS mariner post I saw that explained all of this is down so I'm not sure what the deal is any longer.

A man amongst boys, Towering and imposing, One very Big Hurt

by Tim J on Nov 1, 2006 10:25 AM PST reply actions

This year's FAs are under the old rules.

We'll get full value for Zito, Frank (if he walks) and probably Payton too (again, if he walks -- but with some question of whether or not we offer arbi).

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 10:57 AM PST up reply actions

So what happens

If the A's resign Thomas? Do the A's lose a draft pick with signing him as a FA?

by antigiants on Nov 1, 2006 11:19 AM PST reply actions

dude -- you're blowin' my mind!

We'd be forced to surrender one draft pick to ourselves as compensation for having signed him away from ourselves.

but jesus--rhyming is a pain in the ass! -- Rubin Sierra @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 1, 2006 11:39 AM PST up reply actions

But

We would also receieve a sandwich round pick. Brilliant.

by mikedaviswhereareyou on Nov 2, 2006 11:48 AM PST up reply actions

<kicks self for not thinking of that>

but jesus--rhyming is a pain in the ass! -- Rubin Sierra @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 2, 2006 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

<kicks monkeyball for the halibut>

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 2, 2006 1:44 PM PST up reply actions

<fishes for a compliment>

but jesus--rhyming is a pain in the ass! -- Rubin Sierra @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 2, 2006 1:57 PM PST up reply actions

No

If a different team signs another team's type A FA, the 2nd team gets the signing team's 1st round pick.

If a type B FA is signed, the signing team does not lose any picks. The team that lost the FA does get a supplemental pick that is between the 1st and 2nd round.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Nov 1, 2006 11:55 AM PST up reply actions

Bo Cro is a B?

Hasn't done squat in two years. That is bull.

Let's GO OAKLAND!!!

by OaktownRajah on Nov 1, 2006 11:56 AM PST reply actions

Draft order

Also very important Zito goes to team that does not have a top 15 pick in draft as then we do not get thier pick. Giants are the big one that would conern me.

Here is current draft order.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/262567.html

Ideally he signs with the Rangers Astros or Cardinals who poses th 16, 17 and 18 picks.

Also keep in mind if a team signs zito and also another more highly rated FA we get only the suplimental pick.

Why don't they just lick their fingers? --

by novaoakland on Nov 1, 2006 12:02 PM PST reply actions

In both instances, we get a pick ...

just a lower one -- their second round instead of the first. The second isn't much of an issue, though, because I believe the only higher rated FA is Moises Alou.

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 1:15 PM PST up reply actions

Pecota's not big on Suzuki

predicting a .240/.304/.362 line for 2008 and not much better for 09 and 10. So yeah, Kendall might be a nice guy to have around.

by Nick86 on Nov 1, 2006 3:32 PM PST reply actions

I still don't trust PECOTA projections

on young guys with no MLB experience. I have no good reason, I just don't.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 1, 2006 3:37 PM PST up reply actions

<feels sal's gut>

but jesus--rhyming is a pain in the ass! -- Rubin Sierra @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 1, 2006 3:47 PM PST up reply actions

Yes

PECOTA's strength is information, comparing data sets of players against data sets of other players with similar stats. For players that are in the majors, PECOTA is most of the time very uesful inits predictions. For minor leaguers, however, stats are often misleading. Hitters are told to work on specific things by their coaches and roving instructors, and pitchers are often not allowed to throw certain pitches for health/command development purposes. Because the underlying data on which PECOTA rests is unreliable for younger developing players (particularly minor league players), PECOTA tends to be less reliable for those players. Nate Silver has admitted this on several occasions. Realistically, and admittedly subjectively, I would expect that Suzuki's improvement and Kendall's decline will combine to make Suzuki as effective offensively as Kendall in 2008, and Suzuki will surpass Kendall in 2009. Considering that the A's have plenty of places where they need to spend money and will always be limited in the money they can spend, I am opposed to resigning Kendall. It is exactly contrary to the theories upon which Beane has managed to keep the A's as an above .500 team for 8 straight years on a budget that would predict much less success.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Nov 1, 2006 4:10 PM PST up reply actions

That's pretty meaningless ...

how accurate do you expect any system to be predicting a player's performance three years out based on only 729 plate appearances.

Even so, predicting that the most likely outcome for a player who has yet to play a game over A ball is as a serviceable backup catcher is actually a pretty decent compliment. The league's MVP, Brandon Wood is only projected at a .252/.306/.472 line. (certainly a good deal better, but that's the best player in the league)

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

Suzuki played in AA this year

Or are you referring to the projection being based on Kurt's pre-2006 career?

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions

PECOTA hasn't been updated w/ 06 data

it's projections are for data through 05, so no AA for Zooks.

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 5:11 PM PST up reply actions

OK

I thought you knew about Suzuki but I wasn't sure.

But just so you know, I had your back on this one.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks, buddy ...

I appreciate that.

Sadly, I don't have any access to inside information, whatsoever.

I do have a source with the Warriors (seriously) but he's been wrong with every bit of inside information he's give me, so ....

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 7:33 PM PST up reply actions

Really? I'm not surprised...

The way the Warriors continue to put together bad teams can't be an accident. Management must be seriously misinformed to continually produce sub-.500 teams. They just pass that bad information on to your source.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 7:42 PM PST up reply actions

this is the year ...

just watch, this is it ...

(yes, I've said that every year)

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 8:08 PM PST up reply actions

not saying they're super accurate

and Suzuki's projections might be a little better after posting a respectable .285/.392/.415 in Midland. That being said, I'd take an aging Kendall over a young Suzuki, assuming we're not paying Kendall the eight figures he's getting now.

by Nick86 on Nov 1, 2006 3:43 PM PST reply actions

Well, that's the problem, isn't it?

As long as we're going to playing a sub-.700 OPS catcher, I'd rather it be the guy making .3 MM than the guy making 3+ MM. If ownership is willing to set a payroll and spend up to that amount, the savings from Kendall to Suzuki go toward, say, a middle reliever or raises for Crosby/Blanton/Swisher/Street/Haren etc.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 1, 2006 3:48 PM PST up reply actions

kendall's OPS

has only been sub-.700 once in his career, and as I'm sure you know the O is more important than the S. That being said, it's hard to be too high on Kendall going forward, and I didn't realize Kendall's slugging was that bad until I just looked. I don't think restructuring his contract and resigning him is a smart move, but since his contract is sunk we might as well let him play out his contract (though i'm not sure we're in disagreement there). I was just pointing out that we shouldn't be longing for the days where Kurt Suzuki is donning the green and gold.

by Nick86 on Nov 1, 2006 4:15 PM PST reply actions

We're not in disagreement "there."

The only place I could see Kendall going is Philadelphia next year - they could use a catcher and they're big on "gamers." But that's a long shot, and I agree that Kendall's contract is essentially sunk, so we might as well extract value from it seeing as how our other options are none too tasty.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 1, 2006 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

No way does he go to Philly

Ahhh... the wonders of a NTC.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 4:35 PM PST up reply actions

As I said, long shot.

I expect Kendall to play for Oakland in 2007 and don't expect any kind of extension beyond that.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 1, 2006 4:43 PM PST up reply actions

Yay to no extension!

Although, I have to admit...

when I was thinking of a way to bring A-Rod to Oakland one of the key parts to my plan included a Kendall extension.

Why yes. I am a ray of warm and fuzzy sunshine.

by grover on Nov 1, 2006 4:45 PM PST up reply actions

Kendall would look hella funny w/extensions

I can see him in mini cornrows, tho!!!

by cindi on Nov 1, 2006 5:02 PM PST up reply actions

blamechannel

After thinking about it I agree that resigning Kendall would be dumb, but I'm not convinced that Suzuki will be better than Kendall in '08, especially considering PECOTA is generally accused of OVERestimating the polished, non-toolsy Suzuki types.

by Nick86 on Nov 1, 2006 4:17 PM PST reply actions

You may be right

My prediction that Kendall and Suzuki would put up similar numbers in 2008 (not better for Suzuki until 2009) is based on two assumptions: 1) that Suzuki is capable of putting up an OPS of .720-.740 in 2008, 2) that Kendall's slugging percentage woes will lead to a decline in batting average and OBP because defenses will cheat in as they used to do against guys like Rafael Bournigal that were incapable of hitting a ball far and pitchers will increasingly pitch Kendall inside with no fear of a hard hit ball, leading to a 2008 OPS for Kendall somewhere in the .700-.740 OPS range. Both of my assumptions are subjectively based, so it is entirely possible that I will be wrong. It will be interesting to see what Suzuki's 2007 PECOTA projection for 2008 and 2009 will end up after his year in AA. I would expect that it may go up a bit from the 2006 projection. Your point as to the PECOTA overestimation of polished young players is correct, the inflated PECOTA projection of Dustin Pedroia is a good example of that bias. I do not predict stardom for Suzuki, but he will be cheap and is good enough to be a major league starter at catcher.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Nov 1, 2006 7:08 PM PST up reply actions

I'm sure it'll go up ...

the fact that he held his own in AA is a significant milestone in his development. That's where a lot of guys stall out.

Another project of Devo's

by devo on Nov 1, 2006 7:31 PM PST up reply actions

PECOTA will like that

PECOTA will like the performance at AA, but may not be too excited by the low isolated slugging percentage put up by Suzuki. PECOTA tends to heavily value isolated slugging percentage in younger players. I think his projection will be hurt by that, but will rise somewhat from the 2006 projection.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Nov 1, 2006 9:01 PM PST up reply actions

yeah

Suzuki's projections will be a little better, and for good reason, but at the same time the Texas League is a hitter's league and his lack of power will certainly hurt him, since PECOTA recognizes that minor league power translates better than minor league patience. That being said, he'll be an acceptable replacement for Kendall when his time comes.

by Nick86 on Nov 1, 2006 9:10 PM PST reply actions