A's scout lefty Igawa

by ConditionOakland on Oct 24, 2006 7:40 PM PDT Comment 59 comments

Hey everyone--

I've noticed a lot of talk about the A's signing a left handed free agent starting pither-- Mulder, Lilly, etc, so I wanted to to post something about another guy they are looking at who is currently pitching in the NPB and will most likely be posted like Matsuzaka will be this year.

Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers.

According to this article, the Oakland A's overseas scouts have met and been attending Igawa's games during this past season, showing a good amount of interest in the 27 year old left handed ace.

I reported on Igawa last offseason, when he was first denied his posting request, but many believe he will be posted like Matsuzaka this offseason.
The first article is here.

Here is his stats from this past season:

13 - 9 , 200 IP, 184 K, 3.11 ERA

Pretty good! I predict if he converts to the MLB his ERA would be maybe around 3.75.

Anyways, I believe this is a very possible signing for the A's. I know there are a lot of other teams with a lot of money, but, here's the catch-- the big fish this offseason coming from japan is MATSUZAKA, the gyroball guy. The WBC MVP. A bunch of teams are going to be throwing money to get him.

Now, Igawa isn't even the next best pitcher in this market-- 31 y.o. Hiroki Kuroda of the Hiroshima Carp is, posting a 1.84 ERA last season (better than Matsuzaka's 2.13).

So with all this attention focused on these other two pitchers, I really do think the A's have a shot at Igawa if they focus enough on him (a good report from ex-teammate and ex-A Yabu wouldn't be bad, either). I don't think he'll fetch for as much as ZITO would, which is estimated to be... what... $15+ million a year? I've gotten lost in the numbers a little.

EDIT: I just did a conversion, and Igawa made 230 million Yen last year, which converts to about $2 million US for a one year contract. If we can sign him for this much... yeah. You get the picture...

Igawa has the usual funky off-speed lefty stuff-- a very good curveball, a sinkball/splitter/fork, changeup, and a 91 mph(avg) fastball.

Anyways, yeah, check out that last article, tell me what you think.

edit: Last but not least, here is video of Igawa pitching I found on YouTube, so you can see what his style/delivery looks like.

Hope you are all well,

-CO

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I'd be all for signing Igawa

But I thought the only way Igawa was going to be posted was if the Tigers signed Kuroda to replace him?

by Zonis on Oct 24, 2006 7:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I mentioned in the old thread

that the only way I saw the A's getting Igawa was if Dan Meyer's career tanked.

Fortunetly or Unfortunetly, that seems to have been the case. Sign him up!

by Zonis on Oct 24, 2006 7:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

In the A's quest to keep adjusting

as fast as people can catch up to their tricks, tapping into the Japanese market, and going for the "second or third best guys" would make plenty of sense. Thanks for the heads-up...We'll see what happens...

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2006 7:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It would indeed make plenty of sense

which is why it surprises me that an organisation that boasts about exploiting "market inefficiencies" has been so slow to "exploit" the Japanese market, both the market for players, and the market for fans.

Where are the Tadahito Iguchis, Akinori Otsukas? Why couldn't the A's "exploit" an inefficiency and sign Ichiro!? Why don't the A's till now, have a single Japanese player on the major league roster?

Why are supposedly "inefficient" organisations like Seattle and the White Sox better at evaluating Japanese players than the A's?

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 24, 2006 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The posting system, duh!

The posting system is an auction to the highest bidder for the RIGHTS to NEGOTIATE with a certain player. Then, after you pay off the team you buy the player from (for somewhere between $5 and $20 million), then you have to pay the player.

Yabu was cheap because he was a free agent and not subject to the posting system, therefore costing only $1 million a year when he was here.

by K56 on Oct 25, 2006 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one would pay the posting fee

without already coming to an understanding with the player and player's agent about what they would sign for.

by connie mack on Oct 25, 2006 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am well aware of how the posting system

works. Nonetheless, Ichiro! is still a bargain for the Mariners.

Kenji Johjima was a free agent. Tadahito Iguchi and Akinori Otsuka were also free agents. So too Takashi Saito. All these players were signed by "inefficient organisations.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 25, 2006 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for the thread

that's really interesting.

I personally would love to see the A's pick up a guy like this. For the right price, of course. Don't forget that if they sign a premier Japanese Free Agent, they don't give up the compensatory picks.

What is the chance that there are some effective, fairly nondescript guys, (better than Yabu) that would be good fits as either Right Handed hitting First Basemen, LOOGYs, backup 3rd basemen (preferably rh hitting) or backup catchers?

I think a bench of 28 year old Japanese journeymen would be a major edge over a bunch of 24 and 25 year old guys. for pinch hitting, pinch running, putting down a bunt or hit and run in the late innings, etc.

by connie mack on Oct 24, 2006 8:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There may be a lot of variables,

but I think "better than Yabu" is pretty much a given.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2006 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Macha can give a good report

since he played for Japan and was a "star" over there. He could tell Igawa how much he loves us!

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin, Seattle Mariners

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 24, 2006 8:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I heard

the first season Ichiro played for the Mariners, his first time playing the A's for that matter, he ran over to the A's dugout before the game and got Macha to autograph a baseball glove for him...
I don't think it was because he was a big star, but I just think he was one of Ichiro's favorite players growing up for some reason... I dunno.

Yeah, haha.

by ConditionOakland on Oct 24, 2006 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There was an article on Macha

In the Chronicle a few months back about his days in Japan. Macha (Or Moo-kaa as they called him there) was a All-Star in Japan. .300+ AVG, 20+ HRs. To this day (according to the article) he's the only foreign player in Japan to have been carried off the field on shoulders of his teammates. And yes, he was Ichiro's favorite player growing up (Ichiro has his poster on his wall!).

Also explained why Macha was a passive man toward umps - in Japan, the players frowned upon and disrepected players who would argue, and Macha picked up on this.

This article came about because there was a documentary in Japan about Macha that was recently (relative to the article) made.

by Kaiser99 on Oct 24, 2006 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really like the idea

But giving him 10 million a year.. I don't see the A's doing that at all.

"Imagine all the Hebrews goin dumb"-Tell Me When To Go

by ohad on Oct 24, 2006 8:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

so i just did some math...

$10 million is too much. He made 230 million yen last year, which converts (if I did this right) to about $1.5 million a year US, which is a much better number...

by ConditionOakland on Oct 24, 2006 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really have a yen

for Japanese money. But French money, francly, does nothing for me.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2006 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Euro way off the mark

by Rickeyfan on Oct 24, 2006 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of these days I'll

stop Lire-ing at the two of you.

by DMOAS on Oct 24, 2006 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gotta go rupee.

Like Rupaul.

"It's time to blow this team up." - Oaktoon, July 2006

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2006 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm reminded of one of my favorite lines

from the importance of being earnest:
"You will read your Political Economy in my absence. The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational. Even these metallic problems have their melodramatic side."

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 24, 2006 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys deserve to be pounded.

by calvin on Oct 25, 2006 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

please

rip 2006, it was nice while it lasted.

by ak_A on Oct 25, 2006 6:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He would

cost around 10 million when posted, but then 3 million a year seems reasonable. with 3 years 10 million that equates to Loaiza money.

Here is an article about Igawa:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kei_igawa/index

by OaktownIn06 on Oct 24, 2006 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If you're gonna pay the 10 million to post him

you are better off signing him for 5 or 6 years.
If he's a 26 year old lefthander, he'll be tradeable up to the last day.

by connie mack on Oct 24, 2006 9:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, he'd be under club control for 6 years

so it doesn't really matter.

by Zonis on Oct 24, 2006 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if he ends up being good

don't you have to deal with arbitration after the third year? It seems like if you decide he's worth the posting fee, which is the equivalent of a signing bonus, you would want to buy below market cost control at the same time.

by connie mack on Oct 25, 2006 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any video of Macha

kickin ass in Japan? I'd sure like to see what he was like as a player.

Come On! -Gob Bluth

by Degolas on Oct 24, 2006 10:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hiroki Kuroda

I still think Kuroda coul be a possibility.

He is actually a free agent so no posting fee.

Why don't they just lick their fingers? --

by novaoakland on Oct 24, 2006 10:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Kuroda does sound interesting

by connie mack on Oct 25, 2006 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to your link

the Dodgers, Indians, Mariners and Royals have also sent scouts...or at least shown interest. Beane was on KNBR a year or so ago saying he won't go to the Japan market because of the exorbitant "posting" or negotiating right fees ala Ichiro w/ Orix Blue Wave....or even Hideki Irabu. Beane said he would rather explore Latin America for the Jairos (Casillas) were the salaries are not established even by yen-standards.

by arch on Oct 24, 2006 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yet even taking into

the "exorbitant" posting fees, Ichiro! has been a great bargain for the Mariners.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 25, 2006 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not about Ichiro

But he is offensively among the most overrated players. minus 2004 an OPS of over 800 is a stretch.

Even the medicore Jason Kendall has only trailed Ichiro by .005 and .003 in OBP over the last 2 years.

Why don't they just lick their fingers? --

by novaoakland on Oct 25, 2006 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm referring to Ichiro!

the baseball player, not the offensive player. Defense, baserunning etc.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 25, 2006 6:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree on ichiro

but importing players from japan is also like crapshoot....there were a lot more duds for every ichiro, sasakis or hideki matsuis.....

by arch on Oct 25, 2006 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

bring back yabu!

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 24, 2006 11:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Was Yabu that bad?

Or did he just get used completely wrong most of the time. It seemed to me like the 12th man on the pitching staff spot is better filled by a halsey type at 1/3rd the cost

by connie mack on Oct 25, 2006 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe attendance would go up too.

I'm all for this. At least he could fool hitters for a few months if nothing else.

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 25, 2006 5:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I am so ingrained in Web

grammar or lack of rules, that I thought, hey, cool, a Japanese pitcher by the name of Lefty.

rip 2006, it was nice while it lasted.

by ak_A on Oct 25, 2006 6:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, ConditionOakland, for the research

and the insight. I remember your article from the beginning of the year regarding these pitchers, including Igawa.
He might be a great pick-up, since Matsuzaka is most likely going to be making Ichiro's posting fee look like peanuts.
And as you pointed out, we really need a lefty for the rotation anyway.
Seems to be some debate on whether or not his club will post him, since they refused to last year. And as pointed out in a previous comment here, Beane seems to feel the expense of paying millions just to negotiate and potentially sign a player is an expense the A's can't justify.
He might be right about that, but it would sure be interesting if we got him.
I still think the Mariners have the inside track on the Japanese player market though, partially due to their ownership and their heavier investments over there in scouting and relationships.
Still, thanks again for presenting an intriguing idea and the research that went into it- fun to think about, if nothing else!

by still bills kingdom on Oct 25, 2006 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice looking splitter he has

He could use a few steak dinners, though.

I think Kuroda is more realistic because of the lack of posting fee. To get a real feel for what Igawa would cost, you'd have to amortize the posting fee over the life of the contract. So, if you're paying him $3M a year for three years, and the posting fee is $10M, you're really paying him $19M over three years. That's quite a bit for someone who hasn't proved they can get major league hitters out.

"Next thing you know, they'll have me taking an overdose of pills."--Milton Bradley

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2006 9:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

But that's also

6 million per year, which is a bargin for pitching on this market.

by Zonis on Oct 25, 2006 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he's Hideo Nomo in his prime

yes; if he's Hideki Irabu, no.

What I think will be interesting to see is how the numbers really play out. I suspect my estimates might be really low. I do think that he will be posted, because if the Hanshin Tigers are paying any attention at all, they should realize that they would get a huge return on it.

"Next thing you know, they'll have me taking an overdose of pills."--Milton Bradley

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2006 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jamie Moyer

just signed a 2 x $5million contract that could be worth as much as $14 million if he hits all the incentive clauses.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 25, 2006 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

But Moyer has more than 200 major league wins. There's an element of uncertainly to a guy who's never pitched in the US that is unique. Thus, I would think that slightly less than open market value is what you should pay for him.

I'm not against exploring it, but would only do so within significant constraints. I can't wait to see what the market really will be for Igawa, Matsuzaka, and Kuroda.

"Next thing you know, they'll have me taking an overdose of pills."--Milton Bradley

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2006 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

this demand for lefthanders

is why I suggested Reuter in another post.
he's only 34 or 35, and he hasn't had a great defense behind him since he left Montreal.

by connie mack on Oct 25, 2006 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Moyer does indeed have 200 wins

Would you then suggest trading for Randy Johnson?

I do get your point that Moyer is a "proven commodity". My point is that the market value for pitchers is likely going to be very high this offseason, and it's difficult to tell exactly what is market value for pitchers like Igawa and Kuroda unless you've watched a lot of their games. Which is what scouting is for, I guess.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 25, 2006 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the biggest reason

I think this is possible is because of the other pitchers on the market.
I really think most teams WILL make some sort of attempt to sign Matsuzaka, thus making offers of around $10 million just to talk.
They, in turn, WILL NOT make an offer for Igawa, because if they make both offers... they'll be neck deep in posting costs and contracts. I dunno, that just makes sense to me.

So like Nico was saying, it's the A's style of getting the 2nd or 3rd best players, and if there is enough brouhaha over Matsuzaka and Kuroda (not posted, a FA), then the A's have a legitimate chance of getting the rights of Igawa for less than $10 mil. Plus, he isn't Ichiro, I really don't think it'll be that much.

But yeah, I'm just saying, here's an option. If the A's don't fill the big space left by Zito, and their prospects continue to stink it up, then our pitching rotation will be weaker than last year. I think it would be worth spending this money in order to provide a little more solidity.

That is, if he gets posted.

by ConditionOakland on Oct 25, 2006 2:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You know, the A's could very well

fill all their holes in their roster with players from Japan.

Think about it (and Condition, can you do a bit of research on the Japanese Free Agents / Players to be Posted for the off season?), all we need is a Starter (preferably a GOOD QUALITY ARM for the playoffs, rather then a 4th or 5th starter) and a 1st Baseman or Corner Outfielder.

Infact, I believe that there is a solid 3rd Baseman that is either a FA or will be posted who said that he would be willing to play 2nd or the outfield for a Major League team.

It would be great to sign him, play him in Left or Right field, and have him back up Chavez as well! That way when Chavez sits, we still have a Gold Glove 3B out there (Japanese GG that is) as well as a bat, instead of Antonio Perez, and the guy can play everyday as well.

And it won't cost us any talent in a trade, and will likely be cheaper then any FA or Trade we could do.

by Zonis on Oct 25, 2006 3:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No.

NPB is not a minor league feeder farm for the MLB, no matter what you people think. Imagine if aliens kept abducting all the all-star teams from the MLB -- what would happen to the level of play here?

Anyway, postings don't happen officially until after the Japan Series ends (which might be tomorrow once my Fighters finish off those pesky Chunichi rats tonight) and even so, the only ones that have been said for sure are Yakult's Iwamura and Seibu's ace.

Here's the list of FA qualifiers:
http://www.npb.or.jp/players/2006fa_qualifier.html

but I'm pretty sure most of these guys aren't exercising their FA rights, and some are retiring.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 25, 2006 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a possibility.

I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
I don't think anyone is suggesting stealing all the top talent from the NPB and bringing them to warm the bench here in the states.
I do think there is a good handful of players who would like to play in the US, like a So Taguchi, after teams pretty much don't want them anymore or they are on the cusp of being traded away.
Like, what about Norihiro Nakamura? He would be a good bench player if given the chance.

by ConditionOakland on Oct 25, 2006 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm

Nakamura WAS a bench warmer for a few atbats with the Dodgers in 2005 and ended up spending most of the season in AAA before he said "screw this" and headed back to Japan, you know.

That IS the problem, a lot of them come here and warm benches or play in AAA, which isn't what they're after.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 25, 2006 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go Fighters :)

In my ideal world, they would find some way to merge the 2 leagues. Or at least have some competition where the best teams play against each other, like European club soccer.

Unfortunately that's not happening. And NPB fans like you are going to be flaming those of us who kinda see NPB as a source for players.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 26, 2006 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't want Igawa.

Igawa needs a haircut. And a psychiatrist.

He's another Kazuhisa Ishii waiting to happen, and I don't think he has the mental makeup for the MLB. Dude was way too inconsistent this year, and you'll even find diehard Hanshin Tigers fans who'll blast him for being such a headcase early on.

He's been whining about wanting to go to the MLB for several years now, though, so it'll probably happen eventually. But I doubt Hanshin posts him, as they had more than enough issues this year with starting pitching (and it's not like Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi's getting any younger, heh). Rumor is that Seibu's going to use the money they get from posting You-Know-Who to try to sign Kuroda, anyway -- the only advantage Hanshin has is that Kuroda's from Osaka originally.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 25, 2006 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

you know...

I can name a few more "headcases" on our team right now, which seems to be the only reason we have them.
If he's a Milo, doesn't that make him all the more desirable with our budget?
And in terms with inconsistency, I can name a number of players with some pretty inconsistant numbers-- his ERA line has been always pretty much under 4, so I'd take that risk.

by ConditionOakland on Oct 25, 2006 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

If you think paying the posting fee for another Kazuhisa Ishii is a good idea, then that's your prerogative. They're not going to let him go for a low bid.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 25, 2006 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since you're a Mariners

fan, shouldn't you be happy if the A's f*** up?

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Oct 26, 2006 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So why not just go after Kuroda?

by Zonis on Oct 25, 2006 7:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Every time I hear "posting fee,"

I worry that it will give Blez an idea...

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2006 9:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs