OF, 1B, and DH, Oh My!
Things change when you fancy yourself a contender, definitely for the division and possibly for the World Series. Suddenly, player development takes a back seat and "what helps us now" takes center stage. ("Hey Nico, are we in a car or at the theatre? Pick a metaphor and go with it, dude.") With an addition like Frank Thomas, Craig Wilson, Aubrey Huff, or <insert unfounded rumor here>, questions abound as to where that would leave Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson, Jay Payton, and everyone else caught in the domino effect. It is a nice problem to have; "nice problems to have," however, are still problems.
Problem: At this stage of his career, I don't want Swisher becoming a platoon player--not when he has demonstrated the ability to hit LHP in the minor leagues (and the second half of 2005). At this stage of his career, I don't want Johnson becoming a full-time DH--not when he has shown himself to be at least average in the field. I don't want to see him becoming a strict platoon player either--not when he more than held his own against LHP in his rookie season.
Problem: Another roster addition might squeeze Kielty right out of the picture, but if not Kielty's at bats need (please!) to come against LHP. But at whose expense? If not Swisher or Johnson, for reasons just outlined, also not Bradley based on his career splits, nor Kotsay (who hits better against LHP), nor any DH we are likely to add.
Problem: Other than the occasional days off guys like Kotsay and Bradley will need, there is no logical player to sit down against RHP, either. Certainly not Swisher and Johnson, nor Kotsay, Bradley, or any DH we add--because we are unlikely to pay key players and then sit them 75%-80% of the time, or any significant portion thereof.
It is looking grim. Until you realize...
Solution: What that leaves, possibly, is a "6 guys for 5 spots, let's just kind of rotate them equally" plan, which, while great for keeping everyone fresh, is kind of like going with a 6-man starting rotation and hoping your best 6 can match the quality of other teams' best 5. This rarely happens. But it could happen in Oakland with these five positions (OF, OF, OF, 1B, DH). Might the A's best 6 at these positions, following one more addition, wind up being as good as other teams' best 5 at these positions? If so, it is sheer brilliance on the A's part, to build in such depth that they can rest everyone throughout the season and still maintain division-winning quality on the field. Is that where Billy Beane is headed? It could be the ultimate checkmate.
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I'd go with this lineup
- .285/.348/.419/.767 - 2B Ellis
- .275/.373/.443/.816 - RF Bradley
- .282/.366/.524/.890 - 3B Chavez
- .272/.339/.467/.806 - DH Johnson
- .248/.326/.490/.816 - 1B Swisher
- .283/.341/.425/.766 - CF Kotsay
- .260/.325/.416/.741 - SS Crosby
- .276/.323/.439/.762 - LF Payton
- .307/.382/.380/.762 - C1 Kendall
- .301/.360/.420/.780 - CF Kotsay
- .326/.394/.513/.907 - RF Bradley
- .314/.391/.549/.940 - SS Crosby
- .283/.395/.404/.799 - 1B Johnson
- .263/.337/.434/.771 - 3B Chavez
- .296/.388/.504/.892 - DH Kielty
- .284/.351/.466/.817 - LF Payton
- .275/.385/.373/.758 - 2B Perez
- .299/.377/.360/.737 - C1 Kendall
And if we add
Crosby
I really hope Kendall is our #9 Hitter - Does Macha have the sack to do it?
by Colorado Fan on Jan 7, 2006 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
Ellis
What does Kendall have to do to bat 9th?
IMO, it will not. Who would bat 2nd if not Kendall? Ellis-Johnson/Bradley makes the most sense to me, but I doubt it will happen. I remember reading that Macha felt Kendall fit well batting 2nd because of his bat control (a topic I'm quite interested in but don't know how to analyze sabermetrically).
Macha seems to favor his veterans. Kotsay would likely bat 2nd over Johnson/Bradley, which is a shame since he's not a high OBP guy, and he is better fit for driving runs in lower in the order.
I fully expect an Ellis-Kendall/Kotsay, 1-2. Even the reverse, Kendall/Ellis makes a lot more sense for DP reasons. But, until I see that, or some other statistically reasonable top of the order, or Kendall batting 9th, the Ellis leadoff announcement doesn't give me any more hope for an optimized lineup.
To date, Macha still (draws liquid into the mouth by movements of the tongue and lips).
by BleacherDrummer on Jan 8, 2006 9:13 PM PST up reply actions
Macha still quaffs ?
by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2006 9:17 PM PST up reply actions
<applies negative gas pressure>
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 8, 2006 9:24 PM PST up reply actions
Generates Ross Perot's giant sound
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 8, 2006 9:45 PM PST up reply actions
Being deep helps with injuries
The depth will come in very good stead when someone goes down. It's rare that none of them won't through the course of a season.
There's little issue unless..
I can remember the great oriole teams of 1969-71-- 3 straight pennants; 1 WS.
It was pre-Dh-- they had an OF of Blair, Frank Robinson, baylor and Merv Rettenmund. FRobby was somewhatinjury prone by then, and they basically used a 4 man rotation and it worked great.
So Nico, you're onto something.
Being the bench guy
But here's the rub: it's one thing for Beane or Macha or even us to "know" this is true, and quite another to make Payton accept that it's true. To him, in this scenario, the message out of spring training is "you're not the starter." Yes, he's in an atmosphere which promotes team, and yes, he's likely to believe his role is more vital than being the 23rd guy on Boston's bench. But none of that means Payton can flourish when not knowing when he'll start, and in what position, lineup slot, etc. A lot of guys can't deal with that. And I shudder to imagine the inflammatory effects of Macha's bench management "skills" on such a situation. It seems a stretch to expect even career average Payton numbers out of such uncertainty.
For that reason, "Seat,"
You can call me Upgrade
But your 6 into 5 platoon theory is not the same as having depth on hand for injury purposes, except in the rust prevention sense. Giving each member of the sextet a day off every sixth day is like planning in advance when the extra 100 starts fall...but that's not the way the back/foot/shoulder/psyche replacement needs will fall. More important, the 6-to-5 plan (a sexplatoon?) is a hypothesis well removed from the more simple sense of place which defines pro clubhouses. Jay Payton ain't thinking he and five other guys are each 83.33% of a starter, and I am unconvinced that the simply cerebral Chauncey Manager can sell the concept.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 7, 2006 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
Huff fills the bill and more
Simplified:
- A's Pass on Frank and obtain Huff.
- Huff's position starts would be spread over LF, RF, 3B, 1B and DH.
- 30% - 40% of his at bats as DH/PH
- DJ stays at 1B continuing his development
- Swisher moves to LF continuing his development and allowing the better arms & defenders; Kotsay & MB; to start at CF & RF.
- Kielty and Huff back up and platoon in the OF allowing Macha to sit MB, Kotsay, and Swisher when wise.
DRays don't need JayPay? ...No prob, BoSox do.
What do BoSox have to do with this?
BoSox have what it takes to get Huff and would do it to obtain JayPay.
The A's obtain Huff without trading a single prospect and clear $4 million of his $6.75 salary in the process.
It isn't that much of a stretch to add other player(s) to this trade and end up with a Red Sox prospect and "floater" Aubrey Huff with salary a wash. (Middle reliever?)
CF = Kotsay/MB
RF = MB/Swisher/Huff
LF = Swisher/Kielty/Huff
3B = Chavez/Huff/Perez
1B = DJ/Swisher/Huff
DH = Huff/DJ/Kielty/Chavez(shoulder)
World Series depth here.
The goal to make defensive substitutions without a loss of offense is realized with the likely exception of Perez.
Swisher in LF over JayPay is more than acceptable with the Kielty/Huff platoon and preferrable when considering Huff's everyday contributions to the offense and roster flexibility.
by A s Eh on Jan 8, 2006 3:39 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm
Bos Sends:
3b Andy Marte (TAM)
P David Wells (LAD)
Medium Prospect (OAK)
Tampa Sends:
SS Julio Lugo (BOS)
UTIL Aubrey Huff (OAK)
Oakland sends:
CF Jay Payton (BOS)
Prospect (1b Brant Colamarino? Young Catcher?) (TAM)
P Kirk Saarloos (BOS)
Dodgers Send:
COF player (BOS)
Good Prospect (OAK)
Never in a million years, but it satisfies each teams' wants...
I get lost on other teams needs and values
So I'm like "Why Not?" since I wouldn't know any better if Marte is the best BoSox have or #9 on their talent list.
By the same logic I wouldn't know the value the DRays place on Marte and for all I know they purposely passed on drafting him because of some flaw that materializes at one stadium and not thje others, or one team philosophy but not the others.
I try to keep up with A's players and those players I think push our team to the next level by eliminating roster weaknesses. So basically I'm looking at a players defensive, offensive, and character histories.
I look at the names above and can't disagree because value must leave to get any in return. The one I'd stutter on is Saarloos.
No other starter pitches like Saarloos. I would think bringing in a Saarloos when Harden, Zito, Haren, or Loaiza retire has to throw the hitters off somewhat and should do well in middle relief because of that. I think that Calero, Cruz, Witasik, or Kennedy following or preceding Saarloos has to be good for similar reasons. I think these guys used correctly can setup the closer nicely with different styles preceding his 9th inning entry.
Contributing reasons on Saarloos;
- his very reasonable salary
- salary control for 4 MORE YEARS
- ability to start 20+ games
- late inning groundball pitching in Boston, Texas, etc is very valuable.
- Warrior/Battler personality
by A s Eh on Jan 8, 2006 9:31 PM PST up reply actions
Saarloos
Marte is viewed as a top 5 prospect in MLB by both the BoSox and Tampa, and Tampa has been trying to pry him from the Sox in exchange for Julio Lugo for some time now
I'd say your 2 prospects coming back to the A's
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6946&type=pitching3&three=1
JayPay to Boston can bring us Huff without the prospects.
by A s Eh on Jan 10, 2006 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
Better than calling it a rotation
Rather than thinking of Frank as stunting the development of Swisher and Johnson let's think of him as a massive upgrade on LH Kielty, Watson and Charles Thomas who combined for a total of 328 ABs in 2005. I'll be thrilled if he's healthy enough to get that many ABs this year.
As far as Kielty is concerned, I see him getting 50 starts against lefties, maybe 14 each from Kotsay and Bradley and 11 each from Swisher and Johnson, just because the latter two are likely to be more durable.
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2006 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
That's an interesting thought,
Won't help Frank with incentives, though
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 7, 2006 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
As long as he's happy enough
I can't imagine his projected playing time won't be discussed during contract negotiations. He (or whomever) should have a very good idea of what BB and the A's will be expecting of them in 2006 before the season starts.
by NomAd on Jan 7, 2006 11:45 PM PST up reply actions
I don't quite understand...
I totally agree--
But coming into 2006, Swish's presence is, IMO, one of the least proven aspects of the "everyday lineup".
As I recall...
Crosby, otoh, I know frustrated both you and I with insistence on overswinging in crucial situations where only a single was needed. Until he learns to relax and hit the ball where it's pitched, I'm still somewhat uneasy about whether he'll show improvement this year.
Sophomore Slump
I'm much more confident that Blanton and Johnson and Street (oh my!) will repeat or improve on their 05 numbers.
by BleacherDrummer on Jan 8, 2006 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Swisher is slightly worse than Johnson
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2006 10:34 PM PST up reply actions
And in a lineup
I dunno about worship, but
- Wash says he'll be above average at 1b
- he's a favorite of Billy's
The last point isn't a kool-aid thing, it just means that we know he'll be getting his starts so we may as well factor that in. Like Nico though I'd like him to be given the chance to prove that he can hit LH pitching too, especially at this early stage in his career.
by green star oakland on Jan 7, 2006 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
Swisher gearing up for big season...
Now, throughout his career, Swish has never been a high batting average hitter, but he has posted good OBPs and great power numbers. He hit 20+ homers last year, even after being injured and looking clueless at the plate, and I think he is in for a solid year, where he gets back some plate discipline, fights lefties a little better, and with added, muscle really becomes the power hitter (25-30 jacks) that the Moneyball crew expects of him.
Now, if that happens, it would be great for the team, because that means we are getting a legit power threat from 1st base, traditional power position, which we have not gotten (Hatteberg) in several years. That takes pressure of off Payton in the outfield and DJ at DH. EVeryone wins.
I hope "bulking up" doesn't make him
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2006 2:17 AM PST up reply actions
Swish
Good 'nuff for me
where do you get that?
.768 is correct:
His production vs RHPs
409abs, 45 xbhs, 24 dbls, 21 HR, .489 slg. Chavez
In 2005 there isn't much difference.
That leaves you wondering how their offensive futures will compare.
Swisher is playing out of position, and according to Washington would provide Gold Glove defense at 1B.
In the coming years will Chavez's shoulder slide the A's power and GG's to the other infield corner?
by A s Eh on Jan 8, 2006 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
I do agree with Nico's point.
Oh and if anyone wants to worship a rookie...worship Street. Now that one deserves it !
Too many starters
People are going to have rest, but the inconsistences in the offense last season may continue into this one too. There is no way you can have a rotation in the field -- someone is going to sit for a while and probably should take some tips from Scutaro (whom I respect for coming off the bench ice cold and still performing up to par) while there.
By the way, sorry if it's hard to understand -- my mind goes all over the place when I think about the A's.
162 games and 600 at bats is too much
by A s Eh on Jan 8, 2006 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
Thomas
I mean JT Snow is getting 2 million for a 1 yr contract. Hes not gonna even play everyday and he has no stick. 2 million for a defensive replacement?
After seeing that, I think Thomas is going to command at least 4 million. What do you guys think?
For $4MM guaranteed I rather have
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2006 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
GM fear of losing face
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 7, 2006 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
The real value here is talented players
I do think everyone will get ample opportunities to prove themselves, and that a rotation probably will happen, but when the Angels come to town for a 3 game trip, we all know the best will be starting.
Well, either the best
That's the big concern to me
by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2006 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
Macha
I agree that Beane definately has a plan to help get more rest for our regulars by adding depth.
Do you think the added depth is Beane's reaction to MLB's inclusion of amphetamines in it's new drug policy?
Speaking of changes
On the plus side,
An interesting point from Keith Hernandez
(i) obscuring the catcher's view of the runner's lead off 1st & any attempted steal
(ii) taking better advantage of the hole in the right side of the infield with the 1st baseman holding the runner
by green star oakland on Jan 8, 2006 10:34 AM PST reply actions
I especially agree with
Frank Thomas Update
"Former White Sox slugger Frank Thomas is no longer on the radar screens of the Angels and Twins, but will likely be signed in February by the Oakland A's if tests show his surgically repaired ankle can stand up to another season, says the Chicago Sun-Times."
by richwol on Jan 8, 2006 11:17 AM PST reply actions
I would...
If the A's sign Thomas
by Nick86 on Jan 8, 2006 4:43 PM PST reply actions
A's Tix
I wonder what King would say right about now...
by baseballbill on Jan 8, 2006 9:06 PM PST reply actions
Don't forget Chavez will be at DH
I agree with those above who say there's probably plenty of PT to be had, the question is managing the egos, and getting people into a good rhythm.
by Hegenberger Road on Jan 9, 2006 10:57 AM PST reply actions

























