Best Moves in the AL West?

by Tyler Bleszinski on Jan 3, 2006 4:22 PM PST in News

As a follow-up to yesterday's post about giving Billy Beane a grade for this year's offseason thus far (and it definitely wasn't a final grade because I suspect, like most of you do, that Beane isn't finished yet), I wanted to put up a post to rate the offseason moves by our main competition to get into the playoffs: the AL West.

Here is a look at team-by-team moves for each of the three other AL West opponents in alphabetical order.

Anaheim: The Angels have added Hector Carrasco and Edgardo Alfonzo and lost Jarrod Washburn, Bengie Molina and Paul Byrd. Washburn had a solid season in terms of ERA, but his strikeout to walk ratio wasn't good. Paul Byrd, on the other hand, had a better WHIP than Washburn and a much better strikeout to walk ratio. I suspect the Angels will wind up missing Byrd more than Washburn.

Texas: Texas added three new starting pitchers. But the good news for A's fans is that Kenny Rogers is no longer a part of the Rangers rotation. The Rangers did improve their starting rotation by adding Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla. They also traded Alfonso Soriano for Brad Wilkerson, which is a better deal than many in the mainstream media think. Wilkerson could definitely regain his form in hitter-friendly Texas and he's also an excellent defensive outfielder. Texas has likely improved their team fairly significantly without losing too much.

Seattle: Seattle went to Japan again to add Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima and they went south to pluck away Jarrod Washburn. The biggest addition for Seattle will be having phenom Felix Hernandez for the entire season. And they didn't have to sacrifice anything to get him. The Mariners also signed Carl Everett, who should love playing in Oakland's division given his love of our fans.

Oakland: Everyone knows well about this one. Esteban Loaiza, Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez are the big offseason additions. The A's lost Dotel, Hatteberg, Rincon and Durazo. But Dotel and Durazo didn't play much of the season last year. Hatteberg didn't perform and Rincon had an up and down year.

In my eyes, the team that probably has improved itself the most in the division is Texas because of the improved starting pitching, closely followed by Oakland and then Seattle and Anaheim. Anaheim is worrisome because you know Arte Moreno is riding Stoneman to get something done.

This will obviously change more before the season starts pending more moves, but for now that's the way I see it simply because the Texas pitching needed to get better more than any other aspect in the division. Still, losing Rogers is a big thing for that team. Millwood and Eaton are good pitchers, but will they be able to handle Arlington? Especially Eaton coming from the cavernous Petco Park.

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Comments

u missed a few things

Angles: they lost finley and they got JC romero through trades

Rangers: they also lost one of their best pitcher in chris young

by Swish33 on Jan 3, 2006 4:30 PM PST reply actions

i think the texas pitching changes

are overrated. even though millwood, padilla and eaton have had good seasons, they are all overrated:

For padilla, he has not been able to stay healthy for the past two seasons, and even wen health he has not done that good in those two years.

As for millwood, he has had may up and down years mixed with some injury problems. so he does not seem to be very reliable as a #1 starter, plus they WAY over paod for him.

Finally eaton had a 4.21 and 4.61 ERA the last two season in the VERY VERY pitcher freindly petco park(Snd diegos stadium). for him to put up the same ERA in the hiter freindly Amquest park(texas stadium) would be nearly imposible

by Swish33 on Jan 3, 2006 4:45 PM PST reply actions

agreed

i think i'd rather have young, rogers, and $12 million to play with than eaton, padilla, and millwood.

by mk on Jan 3, 2006 4:53 PM PST up reply actions

Jojima

will be a major part of the Seattle lineup next season.

YABU: You're always eating cheese. ...Is cheese good for you? . FISCHER: IT'S BETTER THAN SUSHI!!!

by ConditionOakland on Jan 3, 2006 4:47 PM PST reply actions

yeah

hello my new fantasy baseball catcher. Him or the new guy in Atlanta.

I think seatle is improved fromlast year and might climb out of the basement. especially since Texas'pitching still sucks and they lost Soriano.

"Every year I'm asked if we're buyers or sellers, and every year we're both. Just once, it would be nice to buy without selling."-Beane

by pbruins92 on Jan 3, 2006 5:03 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know

He probably will have a decent but not spectacular season. Matsui came over at the same age and with a much better track record and struggled his first year. Johjima will have a tougher time having to learn all the pitchers and learning to communicate with them as a catcher. Expect him to have a reasonable season similar to Matsui '03.

As for the best moves overall, it should be Seattle. Texas lost their two best SP and replaced them with people equal or minimally better. Seattle will improve the most what with Everret, Washburn,and full years from Felix and Betancourt. Add Johjima, plus a rebound (albeit slight) for Beltre, and Reed improving and you've got a team that could contend next year. We did not make huge improvements in our holes but strengthened our strength as did Texas. LAA have not made major moves and have lost key players (namely Molina). Romero will not be that good.

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

by vignette17 on Jan 3, 2006 5:20 PM PST up reply actions

I'd hardly call Matsui's 03

a struggle.

.287/.353/.435 16HR 106RBI 179H

If Jojima does that, they'll canonize him in Seattle.

by spengler on Jan 3, 2006 10:31 PM PST up reply actions

i think he meant

kaz matsui not hideke matsui

by Swish33 on Jan 4, 2006 12:33 AM PST up reply actions

unlikely he meant kaz

as kaz didn't to come play in the US until 04.

http://www.baseballreference.com/m/matsuka01.shtml

by spengler on Jan 4, 2006 8:35 AM PST up reply actions

Rangers are still weak

Millwood will revert to old self, similar to his years with the phils (hitter friendly citizens, to arlington) and Eaton would be a 5th starter on the A's. They improved quite a bit (Young could be good tho...) JC Romero is going to give Los Riverside Irvine Angels of Rancho Cucamonga a supurb bullpen; but they'll crash late in the year when only 1 of their starters is a workhorse. When 2/5's of their starters can't make it out of Inning 5, their 'pen will be in trouble. Rangers probably improved the most, but that doesn't mean they'll be competition, and the Angels reverted, so I'm stoked for the AL West champs from Oakland. (On a side note... MLB 2006 has the A's ranked as the #2 team behind the Yankees... :-) although thats a video game, no East Coast Bias there.

by gdub171 on Jan 3, 2006 4:51 PM PST reply actions

Texas starting rotation worst in AL West

Millwood is legit, but the rest of the starters are either mediocre (eaton and padilla) or unproven (loe and dominguez).

Compare the VORPs from last year...

Angels: Colon(51.1), Lackey(50.3), Santana(13.5), Carrasco(31.3), Escobar(17.5)

A's: Zito(41.8), Harden(40.8), Blanton(44.3), Haren(39.5), Loazia(42.1)

Mariners: Moyer(30.5), Washburn(48.8), Hernandez(28.6), Meche(0.8), Pineiro(4.4)

Texas: Millwood (52.3), Eaton(10.1), Padilla(12.5), Loe(16.3), Dominguez(8.5)

Granted, this isn't by any means the best way to compare the starting rotations, but it's quick and dirty and it gives you a reasonable handle on the situation. Carrasco was a middle reliever last year, so it's very hard to say how he'll make the transition to starting. Santana, Hernandez, Loe, and Dominguez all had short seasons as starters last year. Escobar was injured and missed a lot of the season, as well.

To me, it looks like the A's and Angels are very solid. The Mariners' drop off in quality after the 3rd starter is pretty dramatic. Texas looks very suspect. I don't see how Padilla and Eaton are going put up good numbers in that ballpark, and that will put a lot of pressure on Loe and Dominquez to perform. I think they are going to be a mess.

by mattcschmidt on Jan 3, 2006 5:37 PM PST up reply actions

Millwood stuff correct,

except that Millwood played at Veteran's Stadium for the Phils (Citizens Bank Ballpark will be entering its 3rd year I believe... correct me if I'm wrong here)

by Alon on Jan 4, 2006 3:58 PM PST up reply actions

I hope Felix Hernandez

doesn't become the next Pedro Martinez. He'll be on my fantasy draft next season for sure.

by kvn on Jan 3, 2006 5:13 PM PST reply actions

You are all forgetting Carrasco

He'll be great in Anaheim and by great I mean crap and Anaheim I mean Suburbia of wasteland california.

by niallmack on Jan 3, 2006 5:13 PM PST reply actions

Suburbia of wasteland california

or wasteland of suburban orange county

by kvn on Jan 3, 2006 5:16 PM PST up reply actions

Angels

Some of their success this offseason can't be measured by what they have done, but what they have not done. The Angels have not done much signing or trading because they are planning to give their young prospects some playing time. That's a winning strategy, at least in the long run.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Jan 3, 2006 5:18 PM PST reply actions

moves

The rangers have definitely improved the most in my eyes, but they are not likely to be a threat in the foreseeable future. I have always liked Padilla, he has the ability....somewhere in there....to be dominant, but I dont think ranger fans will see that for more than a few starts from him. Millwood will still be good in Texas, not as good of course, but when in Philadelphia he was really inconsistent, maybe mechanics issues; either way he became under-rated in philadelphia, hats off to cleveland for recognizing. Eaton seems like trash to me, I havent followed him much, but the recent stats tell me enough. Also, Wilkerson over Soriano any day of the week.

The Mariners just keep piling on the big contracts, way to go! Unless Beltre reverts to 2004 then they just keep digging a deeper hole. They really should have tried harder for Millwood over Washburn in my mind. A Felix-Millwood front end of the rotation is a good place to start. I dont know much about their japanese catcher, but ill enjoy watching. The Mariners are one Jeremy Reed trade away from making this one of the worst offseasons in their franchise history.

The only team that we are really watching is the LAAOA. Blez really brings to my attention just how much they have lost. I mean, washburn was never that talented, but he performed very well for the angels at times and a lot of innings. Im just glad that he wont be facing us again as an angel at least. Anyway, losing Washburn and Byrd is really gonna send them down the tubes. They better get manny if they even want to make it interesting...

A's
Rangers
Mariners
Angels

by SwisherSweet on Jan 3, 2006 5:19 PM PST reply actions

I think you're underestimating the Angels

I do agree that Washburn and Byrd were actually very solid pitchers last year, but the Angels will probably do a decent job of replacing them. A full year of Santana and a healthy Escobar will definitely do a lot to make up for the Byrd/Wash loss. Carrasco is a bit of a wild card, though. He pitched well in middle relief last year, but it's just so hard to predict how a reliever will perform as a starter. After all, aren't middle relievers just starters that weren't good enough to crack a rotation?

In spite of the Carrasco question mark, I think it's way to harsh to predict the Angels' rotation will go down the tubes next year. That doesn't mean I won't be pulling for it to happen, though.

by mattcschmidt on Jan 3, 2006 5:55 PM PST up reply actions

Wait a sec

"After all, aren't middle relievers just starters that weren't good enough to crack a rotation?"

You're telling me that if Street had more stamina, he wouldn't crack our rotation?

Mariano Rivera?

Relievers are sometimes failed starting pitchers. Usually, they're pitchers dominant with a couple pitches -- this is where the stigma of failed starting pitchers comes from. In reality, sure, this small repertoire contributes. But really stamina is the far bigger issue, as well as team need. If Oakland wasn't going to need a SP, maybe it teaches Huston a new pitch to add to his already SP-esque armory and starts gradually converting him to an SP.

Now I'm not disagreeing with you here -- just specifying and pointing out that there are dozens of cases where relievers are bred specifically for the role from being drafted as well as the situation where a reliever makes an OK starter (ala Curt Schilling)

by Alon on Jan 4, 2006 4:05 PM PST up reply actions

I specifically said "middle" reliever...

because there are obviously closers out there who have been successful closers, not starters, at lower levels. Names that come to mind are Sreet (Texas) and Chad Cordero (CS Fullerton). Closers are a very unique breed of pitcher. They typically throw very hard and have a great out pitcher, such as a nasty slider (Rivera, KRod). They are usually high k rate guys, like Gagne, Lidge, BJ Ryan, etc. Also, they perform well under pressure.

Carrasco is not a closer. He's a middle reliever. I'm assuming you just misread that.

My point was that Carrasco has been a middle reliever for his whole career (12 years), and all of a sudden he's getting thrown into the starting rotation. If he was any good to begin with he probably would have gotten a shot at starting much earlier on.

by mattcschmidt on Jan 4, 2006 4:43 PM PST up reply actions

Yup

You hit the nail on the head. My mistake!

To reiterate, though, I wasn't disagreeing -- I read your comments as "relievers" as a whole and agreed for the most part but ended up debunking something you weren't saying.

Apologies

by Alon on Jan 4, 2006 6:17 PM PST up reply actions

correction

I mean to say the rangers have improved the most....besides the A's

by SwisherSweet on Jan 3, 2006 5:20 PM PST reply actions

Everett

Everett wont improve the Mariners, but he will definitely play a key role for the Rainiers.

by SwisherSweet on Jan 3, 2006 5:21 PM PST reply actions

The Rangers

will do what they have done for the last couple years: They'll have a good first half and then as their pitchers melt in Texas, they will fade fast.

But if your life is such a big joke, then why should I care?

by johnspaz7 on Jan 3, 2006 5:48 PM PST reply actions

huh?

how did the angels lose molina?

by abel217 on Jan 3, 2006 6:04 PM PST reply actions

They put him away

last week and now, for the life of them, they just can't find him.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Jan 3, 2006 6:17 PM PST up reply actions

I thought he ran away

and no one could catch him

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Jan 4, 2006 10:20 AM PST up reply actions

They hung their car keys and sunglasses on him

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 4, 2006 12:37 PM PST up reply actions

AL West

Anahiem had roughly the same pythag. record as we did last year, and they've lost some key players. I see Molina as being the biggest minus on their side... he's a very solid player. They'll miss Byrd too; it's not easy to replace that many solid innings.

On the other hand, losing Finley was addition by subtraction. I was sad to see him traded because he's completely washed up, but at least he'll be sucking and injured for the Giants next year.

Texas did fairly well for themselves. They have a lot more upside in their rotation this year, although loosing Rodgers will hurt them. They also did well to dump Soriano. He hasn't hit outside of Texas in a couple years, and he has no strike zone judgement.

Seattle improved somewhat this offseason, but they look like they're headed towards the cellar again. Jojima is a big addition for them, especially when you consider how crappy their catchers were last season. They have quite a few question marks though - which is the real Beltre? If Beltre can just split the difference between his performances the last two seasons, they have the potential to score some runes. Their pitching is just horrible though. They don't strike many people out, so they're likely to get bombed in any park smaller than safeco.

You have to like the A's in the division. Our run prevention is outstanding, and we should hit enough to win a lot of low scoring games. I especially like the addition of Perez. He controls the zone well and has a little pop.

by MrIncognito on Jan 3, 2006 6:41 PM PST reply actions

Carrasco's sulk off

Anaheim picking up Carrasco puts him on the same team as Francisco Rodriguez, who masterminded the much discussed 'sulk off' of last season.

I can't help but remember the closest that Hector Carrasco got to equaling that glorious achievement.

In a scoreless game in July of 2003, bottom of the ninth (Zito 8I, 4H, and a 1-2-3 inning from Foulke), T-Long lined out to start the inning, then Ellis tripled and Billy Mac was intentionally walked. Ramon Hernandez hits a weak come-backer directly to Carrasco for what could have easily been an inning-ending double play. Carrasco <confused> throws to second baseman Brian Roberts who is playing in and has not moved towards either bag. Ellis scores. Game over. Carrasco <embarassed> sulks off the field.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/scores103/103194/20030713AL---OAKLAND---0nr.htm

by oaktowngold on Jan 3, 2006 6:44 PM PST reply actions

I have to agree

with those skeptical that Texas improved so much. I'll give them this much: last year they addressed their weak starting rotation by acquiring Richard Hidalgo; this year at least they acquired some starting pitchers. But...

Millwood, while good, is also a solid candidate for the "most likely to regress" award among all the pitchers who performed well last year.

The other two pitchers they added (Padilla and Eaton) look like great candidates to elevate their mediocre status to a whole other level of mediocrity in HR-happy Arlington.

They lost pitchers who were better (Rogers) or younger/more upside (Young) than the guys they added.

Wilkerson is a great addition and at least the Rangers are trying to add pitching (though they keep forgetting not to lose just as much of it, too). But I think johnspaz7 has it nailed: Look for a reasonable showing in April-June, followed by the all-too-predictable summer melt.

I don't see this team winning 80 games.

by Nico on Jan 3, 2006 7:03 PM PST reply actions

Man-Made Disaster in Costa Mesa

The Irvine team has had a horrible off season so far. They not only lost valuable starting pitching and a veteran catcher who could hit (but not run), they only added a soon-to-be-broken-down third baseman and a mediocre 36 year-old relief pitcher. Worst of all, they have yet to find anyone to help out Guerrero (it won't be Fonzi), and they've run out of cards to play - unless they want to part ways with Chone (pronounced "Ralph") Figgins. And if you want to be completely pessimistic (or, would it be optimistic?) there's the very real possibility that Mr. Cy Young Winner and Slackjaw Lackey will be .500 pitchers in 2006 (that is, when they're not on the DL). They only smart thing the Angels did was part ways with Steve (.222) Finley...but it didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that one.

Yes, the Angels will be flying very close to the ground in 2006.

by Mission1929 on Jan 3, 2006 8:53 PM PST reply actions

Oakland has had the better offseason

of any of the AL West teams, and barring injury or some kind of freak slump, should have the division wrapped up by Aug. No need to go into what they've done, we've done that daily since the offseason began, but I'm going with Bradley as the biggest offseason aquisition in the division. I think he'll have a jaw dropping season in 06. Even though Oakland is defined as a pitchers park, it playes well to gap hitters, which Bradley is. He won't have monster HR numbers, but I'll bet his OPS is high. I think he comes here with something to prove and will become a fan favorite here. As for Texas, they are going to stink. i've been saying this for the last few weeks, and I'm sticking by it. They've got a couple of good bats, but the staff is the worst in the West, by far. I think after the smoke clears, Loe is going to be the anchor of that staff this year. If he's smart, he'll get the hell out of Arlington as fast as he can.

Offseason moves to date:
Oakland
Seattle
Texas
Irvine

If Barry Zito ends up with the Angels, I will jump off the Bay Bridge in my Banjo man replica cape!

by haren4prez on Jan 4, 2006 3:52 AM PST reply actions

overall; texas

I think it's difficult to honestly argue that Texas didn't have the better off season of four ALW teams. will it be enough to beat oakland in the final standings? very doubtful. as it stands right now, this A's team is very stout. if beane can get thomas on board and get the BP an effective LOOGY, the A's would then need to be consider WS contenders.

but, overall, just on merit alone, texas has bettered themselves the most of the four teams.

by bigelephant on Jan 4, 2006 5:13 AM PST reply actions

Alphabetical?

Seattle would come before Texas, Blez...Oakland would come before Seattle, but I thought this was to be about the three other AL West teams. :)

Just as the M's will have a full season of Felix Hernandez, the A's will have a full season of Dan Johnson and Huston Street (as the closer). That should mean something...

AN Member Location Surveys: Results | Take part

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Jan 4, 2006 8:19 AM PST reply actions

AL West and VORP?

Great thread here. If Hershisher can keep Millwood, Eaton and Padilla in decent form I do agree that TX can compete - but this is a big if and requires solid, injury-free seasons out of these guys.

As for Seattle, Beltre will be better with a year of adjustment behind him, and if I'm not mistaken they still have Sexson, Boone, Suzuki et al. That's a pretty good 1-5 from a power perspective but I still doubt some plate discipline there.

Any help on the VORP statistic would be greatly appreciated.

Still can't quite believe we won't hear Bill King this spring.

Let's go Oakland.

by 2DollarWednesday on Jan 4, 2006 9:09 AM PST reply actions

Hershiser

I don't think that Hershiser is their pitching coach anymore. My impression, for what it is worth, was that he did a good job for them. If true that may hurt them.

by Larry E on Jan 4, 2006 9:20 AM PST up reply actions

Boone no longer with Seattle

Uh, Bret Boone was cut midway through last year. He was just signed by the Mets, so the rumor goes. So I wouldn't look to see him in a Mariners uniform in 2006

by el generico on Jan 5, 2006 9:09 AM PST up reply actions

Angels still strong

I agree that it is tough to give the Angels a great grade with the course they have chosen to follow. However, that does not mean they they will be worse than last year. The consensus seems to be that they have lost a number of veteran players and haven't really picked up anyone therefore they will be worse.

On the other hand I believe that they have a plan and that they are sticking to it.

Did they lose anyone they really wanted to keep? I don't think so. As someone mentioned above, they can replace Washburn and Byrd with a full season of Santana and Escobar. They have a number of highly rated young players and prospects that need to play. It appears that they are doing the smart thing by giving them opportunities instead of keeping or obtaining veterans to block them. As A's fans, and especially considering what happened last year, we should appreciate the potential huge upside to be had by this strategy.

It is true that they went after Konerko and didn't get him. But to their credit they have did not just go out and sign whoever was available. Spending money doesn't win games, spending money wisely does. With the exception of Finley, the Angels have proven to be wisely selective in the free agent market (Guerrero, Colon, Escobar) and this should be seen as a plus. Sometimes, it is better to do nothing.

I am guilty from time to time of wanting to write them off because it gets me more excited about the A's. Here's hoping the Angels young players struggle next year. But I still think that it will be quite a battle to overthrow them.

BTW I also don't see the Texas pitching as being much improved at all. Rogers was great for them. I doubt Millwood will put those kind of numbers.
I do like Wilkerson though and think that their defence will be improved without Soriano.

by Larry E on Jan 4, 2006 9:16 AM PST reply actions

Texas - Oakland - Seattle - Anaheim

Texas has improved their pitching, though I'll bet they'll come to regret trading Chris Young for Eaton in a year or two, if not sooner.

Oakland has done well, although they didn't really need to do much. They didn't improve as much as the Rangers, but that's because they were already so much better than them.

I've never been a Bill Bavasi fan, and I think he'll get fired before Seattle is successful again. Still...

...at least he didn't trade FOR Edgardo Alfonzo. As a Giants fan, I was so glad to see him gone, even if they did take Finley in return (breaking their own record for the oldest outfield ever). The Angels have to be considered as having gone backwards since October. I guess they're banking on their farm system, and if were going to bank on a farm system, the Angels would be at the top of the list.

by ragnarok on Jan 4, 2006 9:17 AM PST reply actions

A's by far

The pitchers that Texas got are slightly better than average, but that means very little in Texas---either you are very good, or you suddenly become less than mediocre. Texas is the Pitchers' Graveyard. Seems to me Oakland did the better job, strictly on a utilitarian basis---they got what they needed and they didn't give up much to get it. And Thomas, who may be a dead issue, is not an integral part of the puzzle anymore. If Bradley takes his medication, he should be fine---and focussed on winning, not on fighting.

"Greatness is achieved one day at a time"---Huston Street

by Buck18 on Jan 4, 2006 10:08 AM PST reply actions

Here is ESPN projected starters for AL in '06

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2279057&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

Macha is a great manager. -Ron Washington

by pachydermOAFC on Jan 4, 2006 10:32 AM PST reply actions

Colon

When is this guy gonna fall off a cliff? Last year he got the Cy Young due to wins and it was also probably his career year. Just like Zito's Cy Young year his walks were down a significant amount. I would expect his era to be closer to 4.00 than his 3.49 of last year.

his walks/9 the last few years along with his era

2005 1.74 3.49 (20 wins hand him the cy young!)
2004 3.07 5.01 (he's fat he must be washed up)
2003 2.39 3.87 (15-13 no way he's a cy young)
2002 2.70 ~3.00 (20-8 age 27 probably career year)

My guess for next year is walks / 9 goes closer to career norm of 2.5 and era in upper 3's.

Pecota from Baseballprospectus says:
w l era gs ip h er hr bb k
Colon 16 13 4.23 33 219.0 218 103 30 59 157

So he'll probably be a downgrade next year.

by niallmack on Jan 4, 2006 10:36 AM PST reply actions

Texas Rotation

Has anyone seen any kind of component analysis of the new Texas pitchers? A while back Baseball Prospectus posted component park effects. I can't find the article now, but it broke down park effects by bb, 1b, 2b, 3b and hr. Some surprising results--for instance Dodger Stadium is considered a pitcher's park, but that's mostly because it seriously reduces HR--it actually increases some other types of offence.

It would be interesting to compare that to the component stats of the new pitchers. I was thinking specifically of Eaton, who I had thought was a GB pitcher. I just looked him up, though, and his career rate is 1.08. It seems like he alternates between being a GB and FB pitcher (last four years: 1.13, .89, 1.26, .83). His HR's served up have been pretty consistently high (last four years: 14, 28, 20, 5).

Now, I don't know the HR effect for Arlington, but I think it's pretty high. So that might mean that one of Eaton's weaknesses could be exacerbated by playing for Texas.

Millwood has a better HR rate, but I don't have all the numbers and I'm too lazy to spend more than 5 minutes looking for them (plus I'm at work), so it's hard to see how he fits their park.

Anyone want to take a crack at that?

by rockbutt on Jan 4, 2006 10:56 AM PST reply actions

Dodger Stadium Effects

From the 2006 Bill James Handbook:

Park Index for assorted events, 100 is no effect:

AVG 93
2B 87
3B 40
HR 106

It INCREASES HR and dimnishes everything else.

by rsquared on Jan 4, 2006 2:03 PM PST up reply actions

Texas Park Effects

Can you post the Texas Park Effects?

by rockbutt on Jan 5, 2006 8:07 AM PST up reply actions

Texas Rotation

is a serious improvement for them. Doesn't mean much though.

A's -9
Texas-7
Seattle-6.5
Anahiem- 4

I went to a doctor today and all he did was suck blood out of my neck. Never go see Dr. Acula! -JW

by jrwolf on Jan 4, 2006 1:51 PM PST reply actions

One thing I do know is that LAA may be having:

The WORST off-season in baseball.

Thier only upgrade is landing a lefty for the pen, otherwise they lost Benji, who was on eof thier leaders. They lost Finley, Washburn AND Byrd.

That is two starters who have been replaced by two relievers, a center fielder who has been replaced with Edgardo "LMAO" Alfonso and the heart and soul of thier defense.

Horrible!!!!

They are going to be relying on a lot of youth in 2006, which could work, or could not.

Another interesting note is that Soriano was horrible against the AL West. He had exactly the same OPS against LAA as he did against OAK, .753, and he was an abysmal .587 against SEA last year.

On the other hand he killed the Chi Sox, yanks and Indians.

he may not be missed as much as I first expected and Wilkerson is a STUD, very capable of hitting .330/30/120 and stealing 40 bases for Texas.

On a pitching note, Chris Young ran out of gas last year and Kenny Rogers has to decline at some point, so Eaton and Millwood are upgrades there.

Otsuka gives them balance in a flame throwing pen and Padilla is better than Wasdin, so they are upgraded.

The A's basically improved the bottom of the roster.

Loaiza is better in the first 6 innings than Saarloos and is WAY more durable.

Milton Bradley is now spelling Hatteberg as far as whi is in and who is out of the line-up.

Ginter is now replaced by a .297/.360 OPS defnsive project.

The A's have finally added without subtracting, but the Millwood acquisition by Texas makes Texas the winner so far this year in my eyes.

Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste." -Tug McGraw

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jan 4, 2006 2:05 PM PST reply actions

Losing Finley?

That's addition by subtraction.

Of course adding Alfonzo is subtraction by addition, so I guess it more or less balances out.

Millwood isn't replacing Rogers circa '06, he's replacing Rogers circa '05. He's not better than Rogers circa '05 - going forward, you're rather have him but he doesn't improve their team from last year.

1, 2 '05 v 1, 2 '06 is basically a wash. The Rangers just ugraded their #3 spot (and, by demotion, their #s 4 and 5). The O and should be slightly better with Wilkerson - but it's not a huge upgrade.

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by devo on Jan 4, 2006 2:16 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed:

Thing is they lost thier CF'er, LAA that is, and the threat of Finley is better than the ghost of ALphonso who plays the same position as D-Mac and Quinlan.

Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste." -Tug McGraw

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jan 4, 2006 2:25 PM PST up reply actions

Chone plays a more than acceptable CF

He'll be a huge upgrade over Finley.

But, yes, the though of Dallas losing ABs to Alfonzo should bring great joy to any A's fan.

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by devo on Jan 4, 2006 2:37 PM PST up reply actions

That is like saying that Damon is better than Kots

Have you seen the rally Chone's arm? Woo-Hoo, it makes Eckstein proud of his own cannon!!! ;)

I'd say that Finley and Chone are equals out there at this stage considering all of the components. then again, Finley is pretty broken down and suited more for a fastball League as long as there is a short porch in RF.

Any way you look at it though, the Angels are worse.

A's in 06 Baby!!!

Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste." -Tug McGraw

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jan 4, 2006 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

He's a huge upgrade offensively

and he can cover the ground that Finley used to, even if he has to run the ball into the infield. Despite weighing all of 155 pounds, Chone outslugged Finley by 20 points last year.

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by devo on Jan 4, 2006 3:18 PM PST up reply actions

LMAO!!!

Despite weighing all of 155 pounds, Chone outslugged Finley by 20 points last year

That is laughable!!!

Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste." -Tug McGraw

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jan 4, 2006 3:22 PM PST up reply actions

Disagreement

Wow, I don't usually find myself in disagreement with the AN consensus.

I'm surprised at how many people rate Seattles moves as positive. Seattle's moves are awful. Washburn and Everett are both grossly overpaid, and I'm not sure Everett is an improvement at any price. If they're lucky, these two will work out about as well as Beltre and Sexson did -- if they're lucky.

Trading Jeremy Reed to the Red Sox is not a good idea generally, but I don't feel nearly so bad about it now that the gossip says the M's are looking for a pitcher of the future (eg, Lester, Papelbon) rather than a pitcher of the past. Better yet, trade Carl Everett for Jonathan Papelbon, except that -- oh yeah, nobody else wants Carl Everett.

The few things people have mentioned that might make the Mariners better (eg, more Felix Hernandez) are not moves at all; they're non-moves. Mariners should have done more non-moves this off-season.

The Angels moves, on the other hand, are not nearly so bad as everyone here seems to think. The Angels have a lot of players past their prime, and it's not such a bad thing to let them finish out their years elsewhere. At the same time, they've got an excellent farm system, with a lot of guys who are ready to move to the bigs now.

This is where Seattle was two years ago. Seattle made the wrong move, continuing to bring in veterans to block the path of the young guys. Anaheim is going to give them room to play, which is definitely the right move for 07, and very likely even for 06.

by iglew on Jan 5, 2006 12:12 AM PST reply actions

From a Mariners perspective...

if I may. I completely agree that the Mariners moves this offseason have been mediocre at best. Bringing in Johjima at catcher was a positive move considering they couldn't get any worse at that position. The Mariners needed a front of the line starter and a left handed bat with power. What the ex-Angel village idiot Bavasi did was get a back of the rotation starter (another ex-Angel) at a front of the rotation price. To address the need for some left-handed sock he promptly went out and got Jurassic Carl. The Mariners would be a couple years from contention IF they addressed their off season needs but instead they still need a front of the rotation starter and plugging Carl Everett in for a year when you won't be contending for two or three is a complete waste of time and money. Coupled with this is the fact that the M's have Dumb and Dumber pitching behind Moyer, Washburn and Felix. Here are two guys (Pineiro and Meche) who have decent stuff but can't remember how to pitch. The M's even had Meche drop a pitch so he wouldn't think too much. The reason the Mariners couldn't trade for anybody is that nobody wanted Meche or Franklin (remember him?). In my estimation you guys were right there last year and have improved slightly which should be enough given the fact that Anaheim has dropped off some. Texas is Texas in that they will hit a ton at Homerquest but their pitchers will get hammered. The names in their rotation change but the end result seems to remain the same. Be well.

"And it's proven that 99 percent of baseball fans have no idea what they're watching." --Carl Everett

by AgentProvocateur @ Athletics Nation on Jan 5, 2006 8:00 AM PST up reply actions

I agree about the M's ...

they have a phenom in young Felix and the best CF'er in baseball Reed. He'll have plenty opportunity to dazzle and shine as he'll be getting lots of balls hit his way, too.
but the Angels could go young and be very good. They have lots of options for position players. They could easily fill their holes with top-flight rookie talent coming up from the minors. If Colon, Escobar, Santana and Lackey perform as they should and they get what they expect from one of their blue-chip pitching prospects, then Carrasco is a middle reliever at best. It looks to me like they will miss Molina, but maybe they have a plan for that as well (Atlanta has a surplus of young catchers still).
The Rangers seem to have acquired at least a half-decent front of the rotation. They should try to trade Lance Nix for Bronson Arroyo, and if they somehow manage to convince Clemens to pitch for them, they could be very competitive.
The A's still need that big bat, and if they get it without giving up much they'll be the team to beat.

by iceplant on Jan 5, 2006 11:46 AM PST reply actions

A's did what they had to do; Angels didn't

I think the A's will see improvement at almost every position due to:

(1) more experience -- Swisher, Johnson, Blanton, Haren. Even Ellis may not have better numbers, but should get more at bats this year, which is an improvement over Scutaro & Ginter being in the lineup like they were the 1st half of '05 as the A's were trying to figure out who the starting 2B should be.

(2) good offseason moves -- Loiza instead of Saarloos (helps starters & bullpen -- and keeps Kennedy in the bullpen); Bradley instead of Hatteberg/Kielty.

(3) hopefully better health -- Crosby & Harden are the two biggies.

I don't see the same improvements for the Angels. Their offense was terrible last year (outside of Vlad) and I don't see improvement this year (unless they have a young stud or two that I don't know of). And their strength (starting pitching) will not be as good.

The Mariners & Rangers didn't do enough to bring them up to the A's or Angels level.

Result: A's win the west in '06!

by kansasfan on Jan 6, 2006 8:06 AM PST reply actions