Least Popular A's Diary

I cannot imagine many poeple here are going to like this, but it needs to be said.

First of all, lets start with a weak substantiation of my credentials as an A's fan.  First game was in 1979- A's/Red Sox.  A's won in extra innings, I was not there becuase I was 4 and had fallen asleep.  I am so greena nd gold that the other day I was in NYC and some guy found out I was from the bay and asked me if I thought Barry was using steroids.  I told him I sincerley doubted it and was 5 minutes into the liklihood of a curveballing pitcher using performance enhancers before he started laughing.  It never even occured to me that there might be another Barry in the bay.  I wera my A's jerseys to fenway, and cheer loudly nad accept the beer that is dumped on me.  In short, I love the A's, but its tough love, and frankly everone around here seems to have a rainbow up their collective *sses lately, so I thought that I would chime in to share my doubts, the same doubts that keep me up at night, and perhaps bring a little balance into the AN mix:

We are talented and young but there are some very real concerns with the team next year, some historical, some injuries, some we just needed to look beyond the press releases.

Pitching:

BZ- I love you man, this hurts me as much as it hurts you.  

Barry is not really an ace any more.  He is really very good, but he has declining strikeouts and since the league learned to lay off the curve, he has been effective, but hardly an ace.  He is not getting better, but is likley not geting worse.  this is not news..in fact, I think most people here accept these facts and have assumed we will likley get 220 innings, at a 3.75 clip from BZ.  Of course, if I am B, I beg to pitch when frank sits.  I mean, Bradley, Payton, and Kotsay for a fly ball pitcher?  Thats sick.  

Harden- not that worried.  I dont care he is high torque and not 6 feet.  The man is a tornado.  How injured can a 26 year old stay.  I have faith here.

Haren- again, he has been pitching now 3 years, and he has adjusted to the league who adjusted to him.  I think he is solid #2 stuff.  moving on...

JB- oh cupcake, here i get a little worried.  The man/boy had a heck of a rookie year, and adjusted on the fly, but right now, while he is home knee deep in galic stix and red vines in Kentucky, there are data geeks all over the nation, in ball parks near you, cutting and pasting together his pitch sequences on their mac laptops.  Several months from now, the best hitters on the planet are going to have a year of electronic data and video on JB, and they are going to catch that farm boy.  They are going to be in his head, and know his release points, and his preferences.  They probably will know his facial ticks when he throws heat.  The fact is, the man is likley to stumble before he rises, and I expect that JB is going to look a little flat next year, likley in the 4.5-5.0 era range.  

Loiza- The guy threw 220 innings last year.  THis is a feat he has accomplished only one other time in his career.  How did he get this rep as an innings eater?  I think his agent has been sending the press notes.  He has been consitently innefective except for 2003, the year it all came together- and what a beautiful year it was- and last year where he pitched in a national forrest of a park in a league where the hitters did not know him.  Sure, proably he is better than Saarloos, but lets be sober here. The man owns a 4.6 career era.  I mean, Pat Hentgen has a Cy young on his mantle. It happens- people have freaky good seasons. But me,  I close my eyes, and I see John Halama with better hygine.  

The Pen:

Huston: we all know what happens to japenese relief pitcher imports with kooky deliveries, they dominate for a year, and then the league sends them back to Japan.  And Huston- you have one kooky delivery. So what, because he has an american passport he is not going to have that novelty smacked into the iceplant [Note: Al, if I ever find you alone, we are going to talk about that iceplant].  The man jumps off the rubber.  Seriously, I love that he is on our side, but the guy violates the rule book like charels barkely used to when he drove to the basket.  Huston is likley the real deal, but the real deal is not a 1.79 era.  I conservatively hope he sees under 3.00 this year.  I think the miracle of video is going to cause Mssr. Street a little discomfort next year as the league learns to time that drive to the plate.  The guy is good, but he is young, and he is pitching from the batter's lap.  

Kiko- Yo' Kiko.  Sure, I believe.  What the h*ll.  Kiko has been doing this too long to be a freak.  Kiko, I will buy. And his name is Kiko.  Ask Baseball Prospectus- it is almost impossible to predict accurately the career trajectory of guys named Kiko.

Watasic.  Jay sucked for a whole career.  he had a nice year last year.  Thats nice Jay. Good for you.  Everyone deserves a nice season.  But this is not going to last. Jay has been pitching for nearly a decade, and owns a carer 4.54 era, and a whip north of 1.5.  As a reliever.  I think this is about what we can expect next year.  

Ron Flores.  Frankly, never thought much of Rincon.  I have an ulcer named Ricardo.  Welcome Ron.  Loved your interview.  But seriously people, its  good thing I am not a believer in the LOOGY. If I were, I would have to doubt that Greenie here is going to be a shut down lefty specialist in his first year in the bigs.  Worse than Ricardo though?  probably not, and frankly, personality goes a long way.  

Saarloos. Probably very effective out of the pen. Still, there is that pesky fact that his arm is taped on.  Just thought I would mention it.

Duke: he has been effective since he got here.  I doubt he will be 2.21 era effective again, but that is just becuase that is too sick to keep up.  Still, keep your eye on the bouncing bad back.

Joe Kennedy- sure he can repeat. I cannot imagine the league is up all night learning his preferences.  

Does anyone know if Harrikala is even still on the team?

Ok, moving on...

Jason Kendall.  Everyone points to the fact that he has a career .380 OBA as an indicator that he will bounce back.  Sure, I can go with that too.  But there is the fact the Jason Kendall had a father, Fred, who was a catcher who never really could hit, but what he could muster with the bat abandoned him entirely at 29.  Oh, and Joe threw out 5 runners in his career.  I hope Jason learned something, or got his mother's aging genes, but Jason worries me a little.  

The Verge:  Everyone seems content to light another insense stick in the BBeane alter and offer up oranges and myrr over the great deal that Beane worked out for Frank thomas, but folks, lets be realistic here.  Frank signed for 500k.  Something tells me that if his medical reports did not dry up new mother's milk he could have, and would have, received more.  I could be wrong.  I think the rest of the league two years ago spent a lot of the season watching Vlad poundd out home runs thinking "They signed him for WHAT?".  Sometimes you gotta ask.  I dont know what is in those reports, but I know that noone else in baseball even put in an offer.  Maybe Frank just likes white shoes.  He COULD play 100 games, but I am going to pencil him in for the playoffs and everything else is gravy.

Ellis.  Love me some Mark.  He is not .850 OPS good, but noone expects him to equal thes totals, so Mark seems to be well valued by AN.

Chavy- why is everyone h*ll bent on him being a leader?  So he isnt a leader, who cares...what just becuase he is making the most money he needs to throw chairs?  I dont care if Macha needs to call him a "silent leader", or if he carries JB's bag for him for validation, he can play a wicked third base, and he can mash.  He is, however, borrowing Kirk's duct tape.  This concerns me a lot. Its really hard to hit those outside pitches with one arm. Ask Pete Grey.  

Crosby- noone can be unlucky for three seasons in a row.  I am sure this year he will be fine.  I dont know what fine means for him, being that he has not played a lengthy stretch in a long time, but I am not that concerned about the boy.  He cannot hit the inside fast balls, but hey, who can these days?

DJ- probably going to take a hit, then get his in.  I think he is likley, realistically, good for .800 OPS, which, my Yankee loving friend points out to me is not actually very good, but hey, it beats Hatte v.2004.  I am an A's fan.  .750 OPS is just dandy.  

Swish- this guy has got to get better. Not that worried even if we get what he offered last year.

Kotsay- knees man, knees.  One days the dudes knees are going to wake up and say "Mark, why dont you take a seat...now." and then we will have a tendonitis filled left feilder with a .715 ops.  Lets hope thats not soon.

Payton- read the history, .330/.440 career ops.  Thats WITH Coors feild.  Thats who he is, love him or hate him.  

Bradley- not that worried about him, although I was in cleveland when he was playing there, and it was one of those times when you can open the paper every day and ask yourslef why Milton didnt tie a strong on his finger that reminded him to shut and and thank his lucky stars he lives in a country that pays your hundreds of thousands a year to play baseball.  The guy can rake though.

Keilty- .750 OPS and bad hair- I think he can provide that again.  

We have a lot of rookies entering sophmore years.   One of them is going to slump.  I bet its Johnson.  Doesnt matter though, we have to give them time and patience to play through it.

Every team has problems.  The A's probably have fewer than most.  But I want to love them for who they are, not some delusion.  I think this is a good jumping off point for anyone to express doubts or concerns for next season.   It is, after all, part of being a fan.