Off day topic: '06 rotation

by EastCoastA on Sep 8, 2005 8:31 AM PDT

There have been numerous discussions as to what the A's lineup will/should look like in 2006 and beyond, but what about the rotation? I thought I'd use the off day as the time to start the discussion.

The way I see it, next year's rotation has three locks, based on performance and economics: Harden, Haren and Blanton. (Barring injury, of course.) With those three spots given, there are (at least) five in-house possibilites for the two remaining spots. Which are the best options, and which will the A's ultimately choose? Here's my take:

Zito - Clearly the best pitcher in the group, but economics will determine his future in the green and gold. What sort of jack will he be looking for in his next contract? I don't think we can afford to give him a Hudson-sized deal, despite his success and durability. Will he give Oakland the old hometown discount for 8 or 9 mill for 3 or 4 years? Good question. And another good question: Have Harden, Haren, and Blanton developed into good enough frontline guys that Zito isn't needed, and his alotted money could help the offense? Zito will likely be the best pitcher avaliable this winter. Maybe Beane can get a bidding war for him and aquire a top young pitcher or slugger. Clearly the wild card of the group.
Saarloos - You've got to hand to to Captain Kirk: everytime he's about to be written off, he comes in on eight days rest and throws a gem. But is he long for Oakland? It seems like everyone's long-term plans don't include him, but I feel he's pitched well enough to justify a long look. I doubt he'd bring much in a trade, and if he is beaten out, I've long felt he could be effective in the bullpen.
Kennedy - I was a skeptic about this deal, but old Joe has proven to be a very solid pitcher since leaving Coors. (Perhaps with him and Chacon, we should try to acquire guys whose value has bottomed out in Colorado.) Now, I think Kennedy will be starting somewhere next year. My gut is that one of he or Zito will be here and the other gone. If Beane decides to trade Zito, Kennedy could be a solid #4. If we keep Barry, Kennedy could fetch a nice little package himself after rebounding in Oakland.
Meyer - Clearly, 2005 has been a major dissapointment for Meyer, as injuries derailed his campaign. What does the future hold for thekey to the Hudson deal? Since I have never seen Meyer pitch, I can't offer much of my own opinion, except that to say I doubt he'll make the rotation out of Spring Training. Would love to hear more from those who have seen him.
Cruz - A disaster in the 'pen, and mowing down AAA as a starter: What to do with Juan Cruz? Personally, I think he's fool's gold. I hope he doesnt get a start down the stretch, so that rival GM's will focus on his numbers in Sacto and think he's the one. Perhaps I'm too harsh on old Juan, but I wouldn't feel too good having him in the rotation.

Below is a poll to gauge the pulse of AN. Let me here what you think!

Poll

Aside from Zito, who do you most want to see in the '06 rotation?

Saarloos

22 votes

Kennedy

10 votes

Meyer

22 votes

Cruz

17 votes

I don't care, so long as we FIRE MACHA NOW!

7 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 13 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Saarloos

See, I think he could bring something decent in a trade. How many fifth starters are 9-6 with a sub-4 ERA? There are so many teams in dire need of pitching that they might give the A's too much.

That said, if the A's CAN'T get a lot for him, I say just keep him. He can either be the fifth starter or reinforce an already strong bullpen.

I doubt Meyer will be ready out of the gate. But I'm crossing my fingers that he starts off well in AAA and can join the A's at some point next year.

And unless Beane gets a TON for Zito (which I doubt), they should really try and resign him

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Sep 8, 2005 9:22 AM PDT reply actions

I'm in exact agreement with you

"Don't be an ass!" --Bill King

by batgirl on Sep 8, 2005 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Cruz

I think it is worth the gamble to have Cruz start a game down the stretch in that Beane can then show that Cruz is closer to what he did in the minors and after his call up then what he did early in the year. While he was very bad to start the year, one can say that about a lot of the A's. The other idea is he cost so much to get, Beane will not want to ship him off at his lowest value in 3 years. He is arbitration eligable but is not going to get much more money.

If it were up to me I would move Kennedy in that he makes more than all but Zito and with how well he has pitched with Oakland, Beane would be able to get a great deal for him in trade, because he is the 3 era guy of Oakland not the 7 era guy from the Rockies

by dougald1 on Sep 8, 2005 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

uh-oh, Cruz going back to arbitration

He didn't recover so well from the last one, did he?

Rock over London, Rock on Oakland. Wheaties: It's the Breakfast of Champions.

by Cutthemullet on Sep 8, 2005 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Strong stretch performances

could greatly over-value Kennedy and Cruz and bring some nice goodies in exchange.

I think they have to do everything they can to sign Zito. He brings a rare combination of quality and durability. This is especially important if Harden proves to have a chronic problem.

We tend to think of Saarloos as a find, but he was supposed to be this good before he got hurt. It's not inconceivable that this is for real and that he'll continue to be a solid mid-order pitcher. If they keep Zito and Meyer emerges in the middle of next season, then Saarloos could be great trade bait or an outstanding arm out of the pen. Bring him in with runners on to get the DP.

I still believe the hype about Meyer, so I'm hoping he'll be healed and a major contributor in 2006.

by boilerdan on Sep 8, 2005 9:38 AM PDT reply actions

You are exactly right, DS

people have been so quick to forget about Saarloos' past that we think he is some kind of anomaly. Actually, he was one of the most highly touted and coveted minor league pitchers in baseball just a few short years ago. Then he was down for about two years and forgotten. Personally, I think he is the real deal. He doesn't throw real hard, but every pitch he throws moves in wierd directions, and he controls them. Even when he has been hit hard this season, it's usually when he gets into trouble between the 4th and 7th innings. So maybe he can't get deep into games very often, but I think with a quicker hook from the manager we're looking at a devastating 5th starter who can shut down the opponent cold for at least 4 innings. That is definitely valuable, and I thnk we should keep him.

by iceplant on Sep 8, 2005 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think

Haren and Blanton are untouchable--although Blanton might be approaching that category with his consistently great pitching of late. Harden is clearly untouchable, ace of the future.

The reason I suggest that the A's might deal someone as central to their plans as Haren is because they clearly have a surplus of pitching and a shortage of hitting. Any of the guys you mention above might be able to step into Haren's starting spot, without having the trade value Danny would have.

And while a lot of people suggest that the A's will sign a free-agent hitter this offseason (Konerko, Giles), based on last offseason, Billy seems more likely to attempt to address our needs without spending much. So maybe he trades young starting pitcher (which we have lots of) for a young and inexpensive power hitter (which we have not so much of).

by rubin sierra on Sep 8, 2005 11:43 AM PDT reply actions

I just don't believe BB will trade

Haren or Blanton, too young, too valuable.
Cruz is another matter, not sure BB wants to go with a pitcher who wants to start, that we already have. Kennedy is invaluable, a lefty who can start or relieve. Sarloos fits in the same category. BB knows that with this pitching, he doesn't need much hitting, just a tinker job. He needs a little more power, and hopefully a little more speed, none of which we have yet in the minor leagues. Buck and Pennington are not ready, nor is Ethier or Barton. But BB is a master of the undervalued player, e.g. Payton. I read all the time on AN about Dunn, or Konerko, but that is not his style. Now he may go big to get a Giles though, which case Payton, Kielty, Durazo are gone.
Of course I am not clear on how it works with Durazo and Dotel. Do we lose them for nothing? Can we sign them at a huge discount or will some other team over pay to have a player for 2007?
I said last winter BB will sign Zito and I think he wants to stay. All he has to listen to is Huddy, Miggie and Giambi about life somewhere else, not always greener on the other side of the fence.

by china bob on Sep 9, 2005 4:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Saarloos - Kennedy combo

I'd like to keep both and use them more as spot starters rather than one consistant #5; and as we've seen this year, having some back-up starters in the pen isn't too bad of an idea. I don't forsee Rincon being around next year and Kennedy would be a good lefty to keep in the pen. In the end, if Zito is not traded (and I hope he is not) I doubt neither Saarloos nor Kennedy will be traded until end of spring training and that decision will be based upon Meyer's or another rookie starter's development.

Cruz just doesn't seem to fit with the team - too fragile - and will probably be traded. He did move fast the other day to prevent the Mariner's LFer from catching on fire from the bullpen heater.

"Do you ever get down on your knees and thank God you know me and have access to my dementia?" - George Costanza

by Awesomus on Sep 8, 2005 12:00 PM PDT reply actions

I think we need 6 starters, minimum ...

No one can expect all their picthers to last the season with no injuries. Add to that the A's young rotation, which is mostly unproven, and our starting rotation for next year is still a little fragile or unclear. Another issue is that the A's minor league system seems a little thin on top-flight pitching prospects. At this point and into next year, pitching is excellent and cheap - I'd like to see the A's carry no less than 7 guys who are capable of being ML starters. We do need hitting, but I think we should be able to get some from the minors (fingers crossed that Barton, Ethier, Pennington or someone else can be a hitter next year), and maybe buy some more with Dotel's money.

by iceplant on Sep 8, 2005 2:58 PM PDT reply actions

Meyer

I actually went to school with this kid (JMU). I was really hoping he'd rock it this season. I've thus far been disappointed. But I'm telling you, that kid can pitch. The question is, can he overcome a rather crappy 2005. I'm not giving up on him just yet. He's got the talent to become a decent number 3/number 4 starter on a regular basis. Whether or not that will materialize in '06...who knows. The A's are loaded with decent pitching and if he doesn't pan out, alternatives are available (aka Cruz, Saarloos). Don't expect another Hudson/Mulder/Zito caliber pitcher with Meyer, but he can still contribute to this rotation in a big way. I'm really pulling for him b/c of the JMU connection...we'll see!

by Double X on Sep 8, 2005 8:33 PM PDT reply actions

A's need 6 starters at this point; & in '06

Zito; Will make $8,250,000 in '06. Sign him to an extension now. Zito means more to the A's elusive post season success than the young Blanton, Haren, or so far, our injury plagued ace; Harden. Reward the ones that get it done!
Kennedy; 5th/6th starter. Nothing to talk about here either. Can you get better for the money? No
Saarloos; 5th/6th starter. Gives young starters breaks throughout the season to keep them rested and sharp for the post season if he doesn't steal their rotation spot outright. (Great insurance for when starters visit DL)

Starters #7 & up.

Meyer; AAA. Must push Kennedy/Saarloos out of the rotation with improved performance if he can.
Cruz; AAA. Backup starter available to work in the pen. Has to gain self control and improved attitude.

Tradeable: I won't single out which pitchers/prospects (Let BB do that) but the A's have needed a serious VETERAN cleanup batter to end the now ridiculous double digit shutouts and games of 2 runs or less.
Crosby is great when he is 100% healthy but plays all out and is brittle so he is rarely healthy. Chavez is also great, and damaged goods with shoulder surgery questions that won't be answered until May '06.

Sorry folks but just one f**kin' time the A's have to fast start their season and get the pressure off of Aug-Sept and avoid the ritual annual meltdown.

These meltdowns are totally self induced

"Who in the hell are these guys? ...the only name I recognize is Zito!" ...A'smA's-zing!

by A s Eh on Sep 8, 2005 10:52 PM PDT reply actions

My opinion

Staples:

Harden, Blanton and Haren are all sure things in my mind. Young cheap pitchers with loads of talent. I'm sure we all want Zito to an extension, and i think we should as well. The problem is Zito will fetch more than Hudson and Mulder did last year during this offseason, which puts BB in decision making mode. If we keep Zito,, fifth starter goes to.....

Kennedy/Sarloos on matchups and things like that. Kennedy is valuable as a lefty starter/reliever and should be kept, but might fetch something good. Billy will not be trading for prospects this year, thats for sure.

IMO Cruz is trade bait unless he is willing to stay in the bullpen and be a power reliever. Take yabu's spot in the bullpen, but not play his role. If he proves himself to good to not be starting, he can take the fifth spot. But i think what will happen is that he will be traded for a bat along with a prospect. For a young bat like an austin kearns type player. I think that the only place of improvement next year is the DH spot, and if BB can find one (Giles) then Cruz will be kept. And we will be the best team in the league......

I don't know what i'm writing about.

by ohad on Sep 9, 2005 7:01 AM PDT reply actions