Re-Ranking the Top 10 A's prospects: Mid-Season Update
Many people have bemoaned the farm system's relative lack of strength right now -- after all, it lost Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson and Huston Street to the major league team. Our current crop of minor league prospects certainly seems to be a little weaker than in years past, but not tremendously so. Looking up and down the list, I still see several major league regulars if not the depth of potential stars that there once was. And that is still very good compared to other farm systems throughout the league.
Here's my current top 10:
- Daric Barton, AA Midland. Age 20. ETA: late 2006. 318/438/469 at Stockton, 290/382/473 at Midland. Impact bat who's still trying to find a defensive position, perhaps the top plate discipline in the minors with developing power. Adequate at 1B, rumors abound that he'll move to catcher or LF by the time he makes the big leagues. Projects to a 290/380/450 type rookie line, with potential to grow into a 310/420/540 hitter. Probably one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball.
- Dan Meyer, AAA Sacramento. Age 24. ETA: early/mid 2006. I know, he's been bad this year, but he was injured. The fact remains that his track record is sterling -- there are those words again! Damn Billy Beane and Macha for saying in May that the team was fine b/c the players had track records. In 352 minor league innings before this year, Meyer had a 2.71 ERA with 381 K's against 87 BB's. If you claim higher levels of competition is his problem, in 61.1 innings at AAA Richmond last year, Meyer had a 2.79 ERA, striking out 60 while walking 25. The guy is still very, very good and project to be at least a left-handed Joe Blanton (4.40 rookie ERA) with the potential to one day post a sub-3.50 ERA.
- Andre Ethier, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: mid/late 2006. Ethier has established himself as a legit prospect this year after being left off many top-10's in the off-season, a testament to just how strong the system was last year. Just 23, Ethier is killing the AA Texas league, hitting 325/390/522 with 17 HR's and 44 XBH total. At 6-3 200, he's a good athlete with tools the scouts like; after hitting 313/383/442 in the Cal League last year, he now has a performance record to match. The only disconcerting aspect of his game is the low walk rate, drawing only 38 BB in 408 in ABs. Ethier projects to be a major league regular at a corner outfield position, with potential to be above average with the bat (290/350/490) as well as defensively.
- Jairo Garcia, AAA Sacramento. Age 22. ETA: early/mid 2006. Garcia lit up the minors last year, rocketing from A-ball to the Major League club in his first season as a reliever. With an explosive mid- to upper-90s fastball, devastating slider and developing change, Garcia's pure stuff is among the best in the minors; the only thing that could hold him back is his control. Some will point to his 5.30 ERA in Sacramento as evidence that he's the next Jesus Colome, but Garcia has clearly been instructed by the A's brass to work on pounding the strike zone first and worry about results second. His peripheral numbers are ungodly good: 57 K's to 15 BB's in just 35 IP, good for a sick 14.66 K/9. Garcia could become anything from a major league closer to a below-average middle reliever who never quite lived up to his potential.
- Javier Herrera, low A Kane County. Age 20. ETA: 2008. The A's most "projectable" prospect, Herrera is a true 5-tool player who has the potential to be an offensive and defensive star. Herrera lit up short-season A ball last year, posting a 331/392/550 line at Vancouver en route to becoming the Northwest League MVP. Herrera drops in the rankings slightly this year due to a good, but not great 281/375/451 performance in his first year of full season ball. The most encouraging thing is the OBP, which has taken a notable step forward, although the notorious free swinger still has a 39:89 BB/K ratio. Herrerra is still so young that he probably has at least two more full seasons in the minor leagues. Hard to say what he'll become in the big leagues (or if he'll even make it) since he's so far away, but his ceiling could be as an All-Star.
- Kevin Melillo, AA Midland. Age 23. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. A 5th round pick in the 2004 draft, Melillo hit well at Vancouver to the tune of 340/422/564 but was largely under the radar coming into this season. Starting at low A Kane County, Melillo hit 286/399/457 before being called up to high A Stockton, where he mashed so much (400/471/800) that he earned another quick promotion. He's hit the ground running in Midland, hitting 313/450/375 in 16 AB's. Reportedly nothing more than an average 2B, Melillo's calling card is his bat, which has been nothing short of remarkable so far this year. He has 17 HR's in 386 ABs this year, the same as Ethier (but 47 XBH to Ethier's 44) in 20 fewer ABs. His plate discipline is tremendous, as he has a 69:63 BB/K ratio over the three levels. Melillo's defense projects to be better than the all-hit, no-glove Todd Walker or Keith Ginter. If Melillo can improve with the glove and keep mashing they way he has, he could be the A's opening day 2B in 2007. A more realistic expectation might be as a solid PH and utility infielder who develops into the starting 2B after 2-3 years of ML experience (and Ellis is gone).
- Dallas Braden, AA Midland. Age 21. ETA: late 2006 or early 2007. Braden is another guy who was off-the-radar coming into the season but has forced his way onto the organizational Top 10 list. After a nasty 2.68 ERA with a 64:11 K/BB ratio in 43 innings at Stockton, Braden was bumped up to AA Midland where he has performed decently. The lefty sports a 3.90 ERA at AA, with a 71:32 K/BB ratio in 97 innings -- the ratio is good, but the K/9 is less than ideal. Braden is a legit prospect due to his stellar performance this year and increase in velocity from the mid-80's up to the high-80's, but the deterioration in his peripheral numbers casts some doubt over whether he can become a solid ML starting pitcher or just a decent bullpen guy.
- Cliff Pennington, low A Kane County. Age 21(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. Pennington was given an aggressive placement in Kane County, where he hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball but has acquitted himself well. There really isn't enough of a sample to rank him all that accurately, but I decided he's played enough to prove he belongs in the top 10 -- if he gets hot with the bat, he could force his way into the top 5. Regardless, expect either Pennington or Melillo to get significant playing time at 2B starting in 2007 or 2008.
- Danny Putnam, high A Stockton. Age 22. ETA: late 2007. (I'm partial to him b/c he's from Stanford - represent Danny.) Sandwich round pick from the 2004 draft, tabbed as a pure bat and average fielder who has done nothing to dispell either label. Currently hitting 303/395/467, Putnam has shown excellent ability to hit for average and get on base, although his current power output is somewhat lacking with exactly 39 XBH in 390 AB. Putnam will need to continue to hit in order to get to the major's, but he has a refined swing with an excellent approach. At the least, he'll become a useful left-handed PH and 4th/5th outfielder off the bench. However, if he's to become a ML regular, he'll need to develop some more power as it'll have to be his bat that gets him there.
- Kurt Suzuki, high A Stockton. Age 22(?). ETA: late 2007 or 2008. A 2nd round pick from the 2004 draft, Suzuki was very impressive in his first big league Spring Training, showing plus mobility behind the plate, a strong throwing arm (threw out his first 5 base runners!) and a solid approach at the plate. His defense and game-calling have been questioned though recently, and it appears he'll have to improve in that area to become the guy that takes over for Jason Kendall. Has flashed a quick bat to go along with the great approach at the plate in hitting 271/388/431 with 8 HRs and 32 XBH in 332 ABs, but most impressive in the 56:52 BB/K ratio. Could become an above average ML starting catcher and at the least seems likely to make the major leagues as a useful backup catcher.
On the fringe:
- Jason Windsor. Great control, average stuff. High 80's fastball with good command of all his pitches. Has struck a lot of guys out in the minors with his location, but questions over how his stuff projects to the major leagues. Probably not an ML starter but could easily become a useful middle relief type.
- Richie Robnett. Toolsy first round pick from the 2004 draft has struggled in the first half of the year at high A Stockton but is really starting to come on of late. Strikes out a ton but takes his plenty of walks, and his ISO power is excellent. Ability to make consistent contact in question due to .258 batting average. If he can continue his recent strong performance through the end of the season, he should definitely sneak into the top 10 on projectability alone.
- Jeremy Brown. Nothing more than a back-up catcher at this point, but could still develop enough to become an adequate stop-gap starter for part of a season until Suzuki or Powell is ready to take over full time.
- Brant Colamarino. Power hitting 1B who was promoted to AAA from after lighting up Midland earlier in the year. Only hitting .266 at Sacramento, but his slugging is above .500 so could be a useful left-handed pinch hitter starting in 2006 or eventually even a part-time DH. Wouldn't be ready to play any type of significant role until he gets a year or two of big league experience under his belt.
- John Baker. See #13.
- Dustin Majewski
- Jason Perry
Not enough data, but top 10 material:
Travis Buck
Craig Italiano
Jared Lansford
Landon Powell
Brian Snyder
2005's Most Disappointing: Brad Sullivan
0 recs |
47 comments
Comments
on Barton
by oaktoon on Aug 5, 2005 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I am aware
He could also end up as a DH, yes.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton
by OaktownTribesman on Aug 6, 2005 6:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting summary
by sec119 on Aug 5, 2005 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There will be
by kcir on Aug 5, 2005 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
The injury is somewhat disconcerting, as is his mediocre performance since returning. But it wasn't a terribly serious injury (no surgery required) and my view is that great players very rarely just completely lose it. I think the odds suggest he'll return to form and pitch well down the stretch for Sacramento, then be in contention for a spot in the starting rotation next year.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you not see
by tblazrdude on Aug 5, 2005 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
they're not really prospects
by Dog Days on Aug 5, 2005 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Bottom line, neither is a long-term solution but both are good to have around as organizational depth in case someone gets hurt and the big league team needs someone to step in.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, I understand...
by tblazrdude on Aug 5, 2005 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Newhan...Dun...Dun...Newhan!!! ;0
by saint on Aug 5, 2005 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not the same
by Steve in Napa on Aug 6, 2005 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
by WhiteElephantGuy on Aug 5, 2005 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great summary, Jay
by Dog Days on Aug 5, 2005 3:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's awesome
Sunken Diamond is a great, great place to watch a baseball game. Quite possibly the finest venue for college baseball in the country.
Your cousin is going to have a great time at Stanford. If he needs anything or has any questions, feel free to pass along my e-mail address -- it's in my user profile.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very kind of you
He spent his high school years in Oregon, but he's a Bay Area native (read: A's fan). We can't wait to see how he does at Stanford.
by Dog Days on Aug 5, 2005 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Vancouver today...
by Ozzz on Aug 5, 2005 3:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's my boy!!!
It looks like I'll have to wait until next year though.
That kid is MONEY!!!
by saint on Aug 5, 2005 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice
Jason Ray's strikeout numbers are tremendous but he's nothing more than a talented thrower at this point.... too many walks.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Jimmy Shull was nasty early in the season, but he seems to be having some issues of late. Might just be a blip on the radar, but The Shullacker hasn't looked too solid just lately, even though he's thrown 32 K's against just 4 walks.
'Death' Ray is filth. Hits 95MPH without a problem, and if he's hitting the strikezone he totally overmatches at this level - the problem is he doesn't hit the zone consistently. He's like a 2 walks to every 3 K's kinda guy right now. Total Nuke Laloosh.
That said, if they can harness his control... oh my god.
Brad 'Killer' Kilby is one to watch too - 29th round lefty who has 10 saves and a 2.00 ERA. Only blown one save this season, and those 10 saves came alongside two other guys who were sharing closer duties for much of the year and got something like 4 saves and 6 saves platooning with him, so if it had been his role from the outset, who knows what his numbers would have looked like now.
And don't forget 'Mayday' Madej, a 26th rounder who came from the back of the pack to be the C's go-to middle man with a 1.23 ERA.
And then there's 'Dangerous' Bradley Davis, with a 3-1, 0.00 ERA over 21 innings, with 29K's and 6 walks. Nastay.
9th rounder Trey 'Phaser' Shields threw strong ball last night in a 2-1 loss - his stats are 2-1, 2.75 ERA, and he leads the team in K's (37 in 36.0 innings).
I could go on... and often I do.
by Ozzz on Aug 5, 2005 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's Madsen's deal?
by Dog Days on Aug 5, 2005 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Answers:
But the guy definitely has fire in his eyes, qand his stuff today was unholy, so he's my pick for the Braden Elevation of 2004.
by Ozzz on Aug 5, 2005 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One interesting point
Other than Meyer, I feel that our starting pitching prospects are either a) marginal-- i.e, Windsor or Braden or b) three years away-- all the draftees this year.
Obviously Beane can trade for pitching (Haren, Kennedy), but given that there's always a need for excess pitching, Zito's place in the rotation for the next 3-4 years might become even more important.
Why not keep Barry until roughly the point that you have to start ponying up for Rich, Joe and Danny??
by oaktoon on Aug 5, 2005 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely Correct
If both of the above, we can start Kennedy in the rotation (we'll also have Juan Cruz) and then work Meyer into a starting job as the front office sees fit. In this case, Zito's trade value would be sky high after this year - I could see Billy getting Conor Jackson (who does't have a defensive position and is probably best suited to DH) AND Carlos Quentin (who is blocked by veterans in the AZ outfield) for BZ. It might have to be a 3-way though to Jackson (who AZ is probably more likely to part with), as Beane would almost certainly want a pitcher in return.
If neither of the above, we need to extend Barry for 3-4 years, or this pitching staff suddenly goes from fearsome to ok.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oakland A's Starters w/o Zito
Meyer, and Rheinecker who are on the fringe of becomming ready.
Etherton and Glynn who are also ready.
Let us face the facts, if Beane doesn't want to pay for Zito, he doesn't have to.
by Instant Replay Umpire on Aug 5, 2005 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I beg to differ
Rheinecker is a huge question mark.
We all have hopes for Meyer.
Duke ain't a starter any more and shouldn't be.
Saarloos showed his limitations tonight. Whatever Barry said, he's a capable #5-- nothing more, nothing less.
Kennedy and cruz are good trade bait-- Kennedy is excelling in a long relief role; cruz has great potential but we're not sure if he can truly handle the rotation or not. And harden has an injury concern.
Don't start believing our own BS-- Zito is incredibly valuable to this team going forward. Whether he's 50+ million valuable, we'll all find out.
by oaktoon on Aug 5, 2005 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extending BZ is a win-win
With all of the X-A's on other playoffs teams keeping stars helps team identity as a serious playoffs contender.
by A s Eh on Aug 5, 2005 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only 2 prospects at the AAA level
by Ray in Chicago on Aug 5, 2005 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
-AA is loaded with talent, and many minor league observers have commented on how AA is the "prospects' AAA" and how AAA has become a "AAAA" league -- the place you put your organizational fillers and not where you let your top prospects develop.
-As noted above, we are going to have a surplus of major league pitching in the offseason. Either 1) BZ will be dealt if Billy thinks Meyer is for real or 2) Kennedy/Cruz will be packaged with a Jairo Garcia or Andre Ethier to get a pre-Free Agency power bat (Kevin Mench? Hee Seop Choi? Victor Diaz?) if Beane is underwhelmed by the prospects of Meyer becoming a #3.
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rheinecker
by kcir on Aug 5, 2005 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post, but...
Either you had a sudden brain fart or you're referring to some young RHP, because Blanton is left-handed.
by dchu on Aug 5, 2005 8:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Blanton
Maybe when eating cupcakes, but not on the mound, my friend.
by oaktoon on Aug 5, 2005 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hahahahahahah
by NP15 on Aug 5, 2005 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gah, irony
by dchu on Aug 6, 2005 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re; "Absence of prospects"
BB has been f***ing amazing!
I consider the minors already re-stocked but the current group hasn't had time to make names for themselves.
Re: AAA. BB obviously takes advantage of Sac being the A's 880 express with plenty of additional depth for the MLB team.
Is there any better use in MLB than that?
BB sent many older R-Cats down HWY 5 to Depo's Dodgers of Los Angeles in Los Angeles(!) and other parts of the globe (Where is Koonce?) and Still has an excellent extension of the 40-man roster!
And a full pipeline of A & AA players yet to be developed.
BB is Masterful!
by A s Eh on Aug 5, 2005 11:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Herrera
by OaktownTribesman on Aug 6, 2005 6:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He's doing okay right now...
Actually, I spoke to someone who is in regular contact with him who says he's really embarassed about the steroids thing because he was taking something in the Caribbean that he didn't realize was steroid-based. Not sure how strongly I believe that, but they'd have no reason to lie.
I doubt we'll see Herrera juicing again - now David Castillo, on the other hand...
by Ozzz on Aug 6, 2005 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jay
by Athletics fan and runner on Aug 6, 2005 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No problem
by NP15 on Aug 6, 2005 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
there = their
by NP15 on Aug 6, 2005 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has Anyone noticed the A's system as a whole???
by gdub171 on Aug 7, 2005 12:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Any comments on Reinecker?
by Checkswing HR on Aug 8, 2005 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

by 




















