The Harden injury, can it be overcome?

by Pucking Insane on Aug 31, 2005 11:58 AM PDT

This is generally why pitchers have a very low shot at ever winning MVP; they (starters) only have an effect on 30 or so games. Given, they do have a ginormous effect on the games in which they appear, especially the good ones (Harden).

This leads me to my point; how many starts would Harden have left this season 5 maybe 6. If we assume it's five, that means there are only five games in which he will really be missed. Assuming those five games are the difference and we lost all five, that would put us three games behind the Angels and four behind the Yankees/Tribe. Not good. But do we expect to lose each of those games, hell no! While Kennedy is no Harden, he's shown to be mediocre enough to keep us in games which is all we can really ask.

Now I know Harden effects more than just the game he appears in, as he often goes deep into games thus resting the pen. This however, is September. I don't think you can have the attitude, "Well we don't want to be too tired for October." No, this is the time when we must sack up. I'd like to think the guys on this team are professionals who, though they might be tired, just keep trucking and overcome the fatigue of having to compensate for missing a pitcher with a mid-two ERA.

With that said, come October I give the A's 0% chance of success with Harden not picthing. But am I optimisitc we can overcome this in the five games he would have pitched? Fuck yeah.

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Rich may be out the rest of the season

for all we know. I guess we'll have to worry about October if we get there.

Street is a friggin physical marvel... -Mychael Urban

by rookieoftheyear on Aug 31, 2005 12:11 PM PDT reply actions

Sack up?

Nut up?
Man up?

Blech.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 31, 2005 12:13 PM PDT reply actions

Juan Cruz

I've been saying it for nearly a month now. He's going to play a key role in September-- just you watch.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 31, 2005 12:15 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah...it's a waste of pitcher utility

Kennedy is good out of the pen, Cruz isn't. Cruz has been pitching so dominantly that he deserves at least one shot. But I have a fealing Macha has no faith in him, and that it will be all Kennedy down the stretch whil Cruz gets screwed by the A's once again.

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by carp on Aug 31, 2005 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Haha...

you love to mention what you have said the past.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Aug 31, 2005 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I wish

Harden would not have to be injured, what's going on? the three players that have the extensions have all been hurt in some form this year.

You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don't play together, the club wont be worth a dime.-Babe Ruth

by doublehustle22 on Aug 31, 2005 12:16 PM PDT reply actions

Estimating the cost

The A's have won 12 out of Harden's 19 starts, which is right in line with the Baseball Prospectus estimate of how many they should be expected to win given his performance (12.3). So let's say he misses 6 starts, and if he were healthy we'd expect to win 4 of those. And with Kennedy/Cruz/RandomArm starting the A's can probably still be expected to win 2 of those. So that's a loss of 2 wins down the stretch. Make it 3 to account for extra wear on the bullpen, or just because we're feeling pessimistic.

Three wins is pretty significant in a tight race, but nothing that can't be overcome. Or look at it a different way: don't you think that even without Harden the A's can outplay the Angels down the stretch? I do. So I still like our chances in the regular season, even if Harden can't pitch.

I'm much less sanguine about what would happen in the playoffs, though. Harden is the top of the rotation stud that can really make a difference there. If he's on his game, he can shut down any team in the league. Zito/Blanton/Haren/Saarloos is still a decent playoff rotation - all have pitched well and are in the top 20 in ERA in the AL - but it just doesn't compare to Harden/Zito/Blanton/Haren (with Saarloos in the bullpen as a ground ball specialist or long man).

"Where else would you rather be, than right here, right now?"

by andeux on Aug 31, 2005 12:37 PM PDT reply actions

I concur

you probably articulated what i was trying to say much more incicively.

by Pucking Insane on Aug 31, 2005 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

October?

We need to focus on September now. If we don't do well in September, there is no October.

I don't necessarily agree that if Harden doesn't pitch, that there is 0% chance for the A's. What about the rest of the staff?

#1 -- Zito is the ace of the staff.
#3 -- Haren had a good stretch for 12+ games in June and July.
#4 -- Cupcakes has been consistent and lights out in August (though his everall stats don't show it).
#5 -- Saarloos has been overall consistent.

Yes, losing your #2 starter is big, who happens to have the most pontential dominate stuff on the staff, but look at the other 4 starters. These 4 have proven that they can all pitch and they give the A's a chance to win every time they go out there! Most teams only have one or two quality starters that they can depend one. Some have 3 or 4. We have FIVE.

I also think Kennedy has been consistent and fairly good. Being thrust into a spot starting role is not as easy as people think it is, especially of you have ben pitching from the Pen since Day #1.

Sniff, Sniff. "Who Fongpay?"

by Fongpay on Aug 31, 2005 12:56 PM PDT reply actions

Exactly

If the rest of the staff wasn't so solid, I'd be really worried right now. Sure, I want Harden back ASAP -- the A's chances are obviously a bit better with him -- but the A's chances don't go to zero without him. And that's in September or October.

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by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 31, 2005 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions

We'll Have to See How Kennedy Fares Thurs.

If he does as well as he did in Baltimore, then he should continue to start until (if) Harden comes back. Should he not do well--and bear in mind he had nearly a 7 era vs the Angels over his career--then Cruz should get the next shot.

But until Kennedy fails as a starter, he is the logical guy as he has been a starter virtually all his career and fared infinitely better this season in the Bigs than Cruz. Remember, there is a world of difference getting out AAA hitters as opposed to facing the likes of Vlad, Garrett and Benji.

That said, if Harden is out for the year--and if there is any chance he could do some real permanent damage by starting, I would send him home for the season--and either Kennedy or Cruz aren't up to the task, the A's will NOT likely make the postseason. They have too many tough hitting opponents left to survive if Kennedy or Cruz can't do the job.

BTW, should Harden be finished for the year, we can't really bitch and moan too much as the Angels have been without their second best starter, Escobar, much of the season. Alas, Escobar is scheduled to come back at the end of the week...

by reztips on Aug 31, 2005 12:57 PM PDT reply actions

I think I just strained my oblique

reading this. Put me on the shelf.

by RunRickeyRun on Aug 31, 2005 1:09 PM PDT reply actions

hopefully it's only a start or two

though a similar injury shelved olivares for two months back when he was w/ us. i'm somewhat optimistic given that he's tossing, and that until the lats acted up in his last toss, he would've been on for thursday. plus, they want him to try another toss either today or tomorrow. if this was season-ending, i don't think he'd be able to do anything. also, i think this gives cruz a shot (though maybe not thursday since he pitched sunday night). it's pretty clear the guy has the stuff to be a great starter...if going to AAA made him get his control in order (seems like it from the stats) as well as strengthening his mental state on the mound (he had none w/ us this year), i think he can step in and do a great job filling in for harden. i'd rather keep kennedy in the pen (since he's a lefty and we could use that).

"welcome to ME, motherf*^*er!" - tim hudson

by guy incognito on Aug 31, 2005 1:18 PM PDT reply actions

Does Harden Need to Do Special Exercises?

If you recall, when Tim Hudson strained his abdominal muscles (I forget the technical name) he also spoke of a special exercise machine that would help him strengthen in that area, and I believe the A's purchased one for him. Does Harden need to use a similar machine? Is his injury similar to Hudson's?

Beauty may only be skin deep, but ugly goes all the way to the bone.

by bigfanjohn on Aug 31, 2005 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Huddy's was the oblique injury...

and that was how Harden went down in May. He had a strained oblique muscle, but it was higher up than Timmy's, I think. I don't think you could use an oblique machine for a strained lat muscle, but you might. I really don't know. I don't even know what a lat muscle is. :P

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by GreenNGoldGirl on Aug 31, 2005 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions

lat muscle

is the one basically below your armpit...runs down the side of your back. think of hans and frans sketches from old SNL, and how they used to walk around ridiculously w/ their arms out to the side...that was all about the lat muscle. it's also a really hard one to predict recovery on, though like i said, hopefully it only costs him a start or two.

"welcome to ME, motherf*^*er!" - tim hudson

by guy incognito on Aug 31, 2005 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions