The Offense and Career Averages

by NP15 on Aug 29, 2005 7:53 PM PDT Comment 11 comments

Imagine how good this offense would be if Kendall was posting his career average .300/.390/.400, if Kotsay was producing his .290/.350/.450, and if Hatteberg was producing .280/.360/.440. Here is what the line-up should be doing based on career norms, OBP/OPS (followed by deviation of this year's actual production from career in parentheses):

Kendall .390/.790 (-130)
Kotsay .350/.800 (-70)
Crosby .360/.820 (~ +20)
Chavez .350/.850 (-30)
Johnson .360/.840 (+60)
Payton .330/.790 (+60)
Hatteberg .360/.800 (-90)
Swisher .350/.780 (~ flat, but less OBP & more SLG than expected)
Ellis .350/.750 (+60)

The players outperforming expectations are the young guns; meanwhile, Kendall, Hatteberg, Kotsay and Chavez are underperforming career averages (in that order).

-I think Chavez will continue to work his way toward his .850 career OPS level as his horrific start is faded into the larger full season of ABs.
-Likewise, if Kotsay can stay healthy, I think there's a good chance that he could catch fire and have a hot September.
-Unfortunately, I think the skills of Kendall and Hatteberg have regressed enough that their current true abilities are closer to this year's performances rather than their career averages.

Overall, the team is -120 points of OPS lower than career averages or what should be expected out of them. While this would seem to give hope that the offense is due to improve in September, if you consider Kendall and Hatteberg's performances this year to be indicative of their current true abilities, then the offense is producing +100 points of OPS over their heads. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, meaning that the offense will probably continue to be league average in September -- thus, for us to make the playoffs, it's going to have to be on the back of continued strong pitching.

Here's the line-up to use against Shrek, a RHP whose heater Kendall has about 0.000001% chance of catching up to:

Ellis
Kotsay
Crosby
Chavez
Johnson
Payton
Hatteberg
Swisher
Melhuse

This brings me to my final question for AN: if Kendall has really deteriorated into a .660 OPS player, what do we do with him for 2006 and 2007? The reality of the situation is that he's here for 2006 whether we like it or not, but I can't fathom 600 AB season of .660 OPS production. Moving him would require covering his salary, which we're not going to do -- hopefully BB will see the light and play Melhuse for 60 games against right-handed pitching next year.

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Sunk Cost??

Not totally given the sorry state of offensive CAs in baseball, but he shouldn't get 650 plate appearances either. I love his intangibles, but a .660 OPS from the leadoff spot just isn't cutting it.

Beane is too smart to have Kendall drag down the offense just because he is making a big salary. Omar Minaya put a major dent in the Mets chances because he couldn't take Ishi out of the Mets rotation because he had to justify his trade/salary.

As tough as Kendall is he should get more rest throughout the season and should be the number 9 hitter. Melhouse is a solid backup with some pop and Jeremy Brown has played himself into the picture with a very nice growth season.

by DKNJ on Aug 29, 2005 8:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree with all and as far as '06 - '07 expect

Kendall to improve having adjusted to the Pitchers, the team, the AL West, The AL league, personnel, and style (Umps).

"Who in the hell are these guys? ...the only name I recognize is Zito!" ...A'smA's-zing!

by A s Eh on Aug 29, 2005 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of the devil: Jeremy Brown update

Brown is 2-4, 2B, HR, 3RBI tonight for Midland, bringing his line to .269/.368/.502 for an .870 OPS. If Dan Johnson at age 25 had a .900 OPS in AAA and that translated to a .800 OPS prediction for this year, then you've gotta think that Jeremy Brown's .870 at age 25 would translate to a .730 OPS at worst, maybe a little better. That's 70 points better than Kendall at $316k.

I'm not sure that Billy will be able to dump Kendall on anyone without covering upwards of $7 million in 2006, and Brown/Melhuse are redundant as backup catchers -- left-handed bats with mediocre defense. However, as Brown's emergence continues, he becomes more and more of a viable option starting either in 2006 or 2007.

by NP15 on Aug 29, 2005 8:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, don't give up

on Kendall. Let's give him another year to prove himself while he continues to work with the young staff. I'm more concerned about his arm.

by AlBowe on Aug 29, 2005 10:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Haren's turn presented the biggest problem

for Kendall's response time but '06 will be much better.

"Who in the hell are these guys? ...the only name I recognize is Zito!" ...A'smA's-zing!

by A s Eh on Aug 29, 2005 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This offense is not league average

4th in runs scored for the entire season.

1st or 2nd since May 31.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 29, 2005 10:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To get ready for the playoffs expect BB to add

Bellhorn; an improvement over Ginter and Bynum at SS, 2B, 3B, 1b, Lf, & RF. That gets a lot of ailing regulars the time off they need to get healthy and ready for the playoffs.
Bellhorn's walks add .125 to his batting average and he has power cold off the bench. Bellhorn also has that rare A's commodity; "playoffs experience"
Macha can use Melhuse as DH 2-3X a week and catcher 1-2X a week up to the playoffs. Why? Melhuse is the most motivated and healthiest bat on the A's. He is making next years free agent salary with the A's or others in his next months production. And he can smash the ball vs righties as well as anyone else on the A's roster -- but only if he gets the at bats!
Look for Baker in the Sept. call ups to become emergency backup catcher and free Melhuse for DH duties with Hatte getting 3 games a week.

The Big Decision for BB/Macha is should they free up Melhuse for playoff's DH by adding Baker early instead of Flores. Flores figures to see very limited playoffs action but another power bat vs righties in the everyday lineup would be killer.

Go A's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Who in the hell are these guys? ...the only name I recognize is Zito!" ...A'smA's-zing!

by A s Eh on Aug 29, 2005 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bellhorn's going to Yanks

I actually didn't see much room for him to play.

DH-- depending on the matchup-- could be Kielty, or payton or hatteberg or even Melhuse. i didn't see Bellhorn in that mix.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 29, 2005 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Macha could have sat the regulars down a bit

easier against righties, ... but Bellhorn is definitely bench help.

So that leaves Bynum and Ginter...

...Got to get Melhuse more at bats!

"Who in the hell are these guys? ...the only name I recognize is Zito!" ...A'smA's-zing!

by A s Eh on Aug 29, 2005 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but the caretaker Macha

does not make moves, he is incapable of thinking. I truly believe he is intimidated by Kendall. How else can you explain playing this guy every day? It is so obvious he should sit and be put down in the lineup. I did notice he dropped DJ down without a problem, and it was the thing to do, Johnson was pressing at the #5 hole. But Johnson is a rookie and Macha could make the decision, but Kendall, Crosby, Chavez, Kotsay are veterans and he won't do anything to help the team when it comes to those playes. He'll skip Scutaro and Ellis around but they are small pieces.

by china bob on Aug 30, 2005 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs