Predictions for the last 50 games

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 9:48 AM PDT Comment 21 comments

I was looking at who the A's play for the rest of the season and noticed that they have exactly 50 games to go. The breakdown is like this.

Angels - 9
Orioles - 7
Rangers, Mariners, Twins - 6
Red Sox - 4
Indians, Tigers, Royals, Yankees - 3

How many are the A's likely to win???

I did a 30 second, "gut" opinion of how many I thought they would win against each team and added them up. It came to 27. Then, I thought I'd do a best and worst case "gut" check and I came up with 34 and 20. So my gut says 27 with a 95% confidence interval 20-34.

Where would these scenarios leave them?
27-23 ... 91-71 (.562)
20-30 ... 84-78 (.519)
34-16 ... 98-64 (.605)

I took solace in the fact that even under the poor scenario we would still finish over .500 and many ANers would win their season over/under bets with Vegas. The great scenario is obviously just that. But what about those 91 wins, will that be enough to make the play-offs? It is going to be awfully close.

Now I'm interested in seeing what others think?

Poll

How many of the 50 remaining games will the A's win?

30 to 32

29 votes

33 to 35

9 votes

> 35

6 votes

< 18

0 votes

18 to 20

0 votes

21 to 23

2 votes

24 to 26

2 votes

27 to 29

22 votes

70 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Feel free

to explain your predictions if you like. Was Oaktoon the > 35???

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha...like u need to ask.

And if they lose 3 straight to Anaheim, he will change it to less than 18.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Aug 10, 2005 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

i went in the next best: 33-35 wins, for just under 100 for the season.

There are some tough series, but I think they have one more 9-1/10-1 stretch coming, and I think they'll do OK (like 24-16 or so) in the others.

And the under 18 was a cheap shot!

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 10, 2005 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone's opinion counts

If someone feels like it will be less than 18 then they should get their say too. It also provides symmetry around the 24-26 category.

by Larry E on Aug 11, 2005 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If they play .500 in the 19 against contenders

and .667 against the also rans, that would give them about 30 wins. Should be enough for a playoff spot, no matter what Cleveland or the Yankmees do.

by BruceBochte on Aug 10, 2005 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

A sizable chunk of those games -- 16 -- are those against the Royals, Orioles and Mariners. Those alone could account for 10 wins at the very worst.

AN Member Location Surveys: Results | Take part

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 10, 2005 12:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Appreciative

Thank you, Larry E, for pointing out that these predictions come from your gut instead of pretending like this is God's word from Temple Mount.

Your guesses are pretty good - the hi/lo range is a little large for my taste, but overall fairly realistic. I think this team can go 30-20 down the stretch given their schedule and end ewith 94 wins.

But then again, that's just my "gut" talking, too. So, we'll see.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 10, 2005 1:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Saves time

And I won't jump on you if your gut number is different from mine. : )

My undergraduate degree was in Stats and my masters in Epidemiology but often going with the gut feeling beats hours of analysis. And saves a lot of time too. : )

Having said that, I find the probability of making the playoffs stuff (from BP?) very interesting.

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hear ya

I'm an engineer, so I'm not supposed to make decisions based on "gut" feeling. But we engineers call gut feelings "back of the envelope calculations."

Regardless, the Monte Carlo that BP does is very interesting. There's something very interesting to be said about the methodology: how much do you weigh actual W-L record versus an "expected" W-L record? At what point in the season does actual performance become more important than "expected" performance?

All very interesting stuff. Check this out - it's a graph showing BP's playoff odds report for the Athletics over the course of the season (scroll down). Look at May - ugh. Look at now - yay!

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 10, 2005 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

I just said "very interesting" three or four times in my last post. Not very interesting, is it?

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 10, 2005 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

91.6

Hey BP has the A's down for 91.6 (if I read that right). Makes my gut feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worries

What worries me is the good luck we have had over the last two months. For all the injuries we had at the beginning of the year, when was the last time the A's put someone on the DL?
Kotsay and Hatteberg mssing the first game and possibly more of this big series brought that point to mind.

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 1:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

32 wins, finishing 96--66 to win the AL west

Angels 5--4 (thus gaining the tie breaker for the divison)
Orioles 5--2
Sox 2--2
Yanks 2--1
And winning each series with the Rangers, Mariners, Twins, Indians, Tigers, and Royals for a
18--9

Angels get the wild card, with either 96 or 95 wins, as the division winner is determined on the last day. Yanks and Indians are 2--3 behind in the wild card race.

White Sox and Red Sox win their divisions, with Chicago having the best overall record. Red Sox don't get 96 wins, so the matchups are:
White Sox vs. Angels, the Angels winning the series.

A's vs. Red Sox with A's having home field advantage, but winning 3--1 in game 4 in boston (ah sweet revenge).

A's and Angels fight it out in an incredible 7 game series to see who will face the Cards in the World Series.

by alamedaman on Aug 10, 2005 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

this is gut feel with some detail, and some hope

by alamedaman on Aug 10, 2005 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had to quantify mine

I'd say 34 wins.

6 of 9 vs. the Angels-- our boys are inspired;

4 of 7 vs. the two EEs;

I think 5 wins against baltimore may be low-- mark them down for 6;

I'll go 18-9 vs. the others-- I think Seattle and Cleveland may be the toughest two.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 10, 2005 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

we're certainly close, and I hope

you're right! 6 out of 7 vs the Orioles though,,,I don't think I would bet that way. great win tonight!

by alamedaman on Aug 11, 2005 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beginning in 2001....

The AL wild card has always needed at least 95 wins. So I assume somebody will get hot and we'll need 31 or so to almost assuradly get in.

by MemphisA on Aug 10, 2005 2:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Interpretation

I would interpret those stats differently.

In 2002 the A's were the wildcard with 102 wins and the Twins were the next highest with 85. As such the A's could have won the WC with 86 wins so only 86 wins were necessary to win it that year.

Following similar logic, 94 wins would have done it in 2002 and 2003 and 92 wins last year.

by Larry E on Aug 10, 2005 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Furthermore, teams in general seem

weaker this year as there is more parity around the AL. Thus, I think the WC will need less than 95 wins but more than 90.

by BruceBochte on Aug 10, 2005 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think your logic is right, except,,,

i somehow feel it's going to be a fight to the wire between the A's and the Angels, and they'll drive each other to the 95/96 win level. But I don't think #2 in the east will be there because of more balance in their division, and I don't think clveland or minn will make it either.

by alamedaman on Aug 11, 2005 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland

I have been saying all along that they are a team to watch. I thought they would have a very good year before the season and was shocked by their bad start. Like us (though not to the same depths and highs) they have bounced back nicely.
And apparently they have a whole lot of games left versus KC and TB. A's fans need to be big TB fans down the stretch.

by Larry E on Aug 11, 2005 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs