Looking ahead to the offseason

The diary formerly known as, "Is it game time already?" or "What the hell am I going to do all day until the game starts?"

Possibly the best part about this year's team is that nearly everyone is going to be back next year.  Let's quickly run down the 2006 roster and committed dollars:

SP Barry Zito 8.25
SP Rich Harden 1.00
SP Danny Haren 0.32
SP Joe Blanton 0.32
SP Kirk Saarloos 0.32

RP Huston Street 0.32
RP Justin Duchscherer 0.32
RP Kiko Calero 0.32
RP Joe Kennedy 3.00 (? ARB 6)
RP Juan Cruz 1.00 (?, ARB 5)
RP1
RP2

C Jason Kendall 11.00 (1.00 to PIT)
3B Eric Chavez 10.00
SS Bobby Crosby 0.75
2B Mark Ellis 0.60 (?, ARB 4)
1B Dan Johnson 0.32
DH
LF Bobby Kielty 1.5 (?, ARB 5)
CF Mark Kotsay 7.00
RF Nick Swisher 0.32

C Adam Melhuse 0.50 (?, ARB 4)
IF Keith Ginter 1.42
IF Marco Scutaro 0.32
OF Charles Thomas 0.32

$49.2 million total. Yabu and Witasick not retained. Payton probably not offered arbitration, too risky. Rincon you could maybe offer if you think he'll look elsewhere to get multiple years, he might be a Type B. Hatteberg's option not picked up at $2.75 million.

Anywhere that I've guessed the salary, I've placed a question mark; this is generally for the arbitration-eligible players. Remember, the salaries of arby players is primarily determined by their length of service... thus, ARB 5 players generally make a lot more than ARB 4 players just by virtue of the extra year.

Clearly, there are a few spots that appear to be question marks.
-Retaining Ginter and his $1.42 million salary looks horrible, but I doubt we can trade him.
-Likewise, Melhuse could easily cost closer to a million, making him an expensive backup catcher.
-Another year of carrying three 2B doesn't really make sense either.
-I'd imagine that Kirk Saarloos will be moved to the bullpen and Joe Kennedy will be given a chance to start again, but out of respect for the season Los Kirk is putting together, I'm leaving him in the rotation. No effect on salaries though.

The most conspicuous holes are at RP and DH, and isn't it a coincidence that we have two, fragile-elbowed, free-agent question marks currently rehabbing Tommy John surgery in Dotel and Durazo.

To offer arbitration, or not to offer arbitration, that is the question.

And, really, the answer seems pretty clear: at $49.2 million in committed payroll ($60 million budget), you've got to offer both of them arbitration. That is, assuming they'll be able to play come July or August next year... otherwise, this becomes a very difficult dilemma.

Let's assume for a second that both would rejoin the big league club sometime in June or July (before the trade deadline). If we offer arbitration, there are three possibilities:

-They accept, in which case they'd almost certainly be awarded 20% less than what they're making this year, which comes to $3.75 million each ($4.75 million * 0.8) and $7.5 million between the two of them.
-They decline arbitration and their value on the free agent market is high (high enough that we wouldn't try to sign them). We get 2 draft picks for each of them, 4 total. Yay.
-They decline arbitration thinking they can do better on the free agent market, but actually their value is low. We end up with a shot at resigning them and if we don't, 2 draft picks each.

Considering that we have the room under the budget, offering them arbitration gives you the best return on your assets (but which could potentially be lost for nothing). The only problem is you have to make do with replacements for the first half of the season while they are rehabilitating, and probably in-system players since you wouldn't be able to afford anyone else. In the bullpen, there are enough candidates at AAA:  Garcia, Flores, Rheinecker, Mabeus. DH is slightly more problematic. There's Jack Cust, Matt Watson or Brant Colamarino, but none of them are particularly great options. Daric Barton is unlikely to be ready by then and it might be dangerous to rush him. I suppose Billy could probably find someone to DH for a half season, there'll probably be a couple million to spare.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Is it game time yet?