American League Rookie of the Year for 2005 ?

by Instant Replay Umpire on Aug 1, 2005 1:11 AM PDT Comment 29 comments

Through July, these are the statistics and top candidates for the American League Rookie of the Year. (VORP taken from baseballprosectus)

Russ Adams - SS (Tor) 269 AB 6 HR .334 OBP .751 OPS 13.0 VORP
Robinson Cano - 2B (Yank) 299 AB 8 HR .318 OBP .783 OPS 20.9 VORP
Jonny Gomes - OF (TB) 151 AB 12 HR .377 OBP .967 OPS 13.2 VORP
Aaron Hill - 3B (Tor) 222 AB 2 HR .357 OBP .780 OPS 11.1 VORP
Damon Hollins - CF (TB) 231 AB 10 HR .328 OBP .796 OPS 16.5 VORP
Dan Johnson - 1B (Oak) 170 AB 6 HR .398 OBP .898 OPS 17.7 VORP
Dallas McPherson - 3B (Laa) 205 AB 8 HR .295 OBP .744 OPS 04.4 VORP
Mike Morse - SS (Sea) 156 AB 2 HR .386 OBP .809 OPS 16.2 VORP
Nick Swisher - OF (Oak) 295 AB 15 HR .320 OBP .795 OPS 08.9 VORP

Gustavo Chacin - SP (Tor) 21 GS 10W 5L 129 IP 3.45 ERA 26.5 VORP
Huston Street - CL (Oak) 42 G 4W 1L 51 IP 1.41 ERA 22.8 VORP

And the foreign Dark Horse...
Tadahito Iguchi - 2B (Chi) 326 AB 8 HR .352 OBP .788 OPS 17.3 VORP

And the guy who barely misses qualifications (130AB's, 45 days)
(Mauer has more than 45 days of being on a major league roster)
Joe Mauer - C (Min) 298 AB 8 HR .379 OBP .818 OPS 30.3 VORP

Before creating this diary, I though Nick Swisher was the favorite to win the AL Roy, but now I think he has a lot of work to do.

Please note I left out the rest of the pitchers like Joe Blanton because I believe they have no shot.

Poll

Who do you think will win?

Toronto Infielder

5 votes

Other

4 votes

Nick Swisher

46 votes

Huston Street

42 votes

Dan Johnson

15 votes

Robinson Cano

47 votes

Mike Morse

1 votes

Gustavo Chacin

31 votes

Tadahito Iguchi

2 votes

Tampa Bay Outfielder

10 votes

203 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Chacin or Cano

Other years, Street or Swish would win, but not with this group

The face of a child can say it all, especially the mouth part of the face.

by JJ on Aug 1, 2005 1:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

'06?

I was thinking this was going to be handicapping next year's ROTY race based on the title. Just a typo I assume. I'd love to see Swish win but just look at what Johnny Gomes is doing in half as many at-bats. He's scary good.

Olympian Amil Gartenamo, world record holder in both the javelin and the hundred yard dash--only person who ever died by throwing a spear into his own back.

by Furious George on Aug 1, 2005 1:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanx, changed it

by Instant Replay Umpire on Aug 1, 2005 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

swisher's obp

didn't realize it was still so low...

If I weren't playing baseball, I'd be... "in the Ultimate Fighting Championship." -Rich Harden

by xbhaskarx on Aug 1, 2005 3:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Swisher heating up

His OBP is so low, but at least he's hitting for power. I think we all would have been happy with Swisher hitting .260 with 20 bombs his rookie year and that's probably what he'll do. If he can pull a "crosby" and cut down on his K's and walk more (like a good little moneyballer), he will be a good corner outfielder.

I voted for Cano, but I can't believe how well Gomes is doing. AN loved that guy in the minors. We also loved D. Johnson in the minors and he's doing great. Maybe we should buy a team and make moves based on AN polls. We'd never make the kind of trades Billy dreams up, but we'd probably do well at evaluating talent in the high minors.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Aug 1, 2005 6:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Voters go on standard stats

If Swisher leads rookies in HR/RBI, he'll win the award, unless the NY media really pushes hard for Cano. Or, if Street puts up another 15 saves and continues to dominate, he could pull it off.

by boilerdan on Aug 1, 2005 6:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

"unless"...

...the NY media pushes hard? Do they know any other way?

by sarchasmic on Aug 1, 2005 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if cano retired tomorrow

he'd probably get some HoF votes...

If I weren't playing baseball, I'd be... "in the Ultimate Fighting Championship." -Rich Harden

by xbhaskarx on Aug 1, 2005 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIRE CANO NOW!

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 1, 2005 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hilarious

agreed.

by boilerdan on Aug 1, 2005 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

HR/RBI

Johnny Gomes is already close in HR and RBIs can't be far behind.

Olympian Amil Gartenamo, world record holder in both the javelin and the hundred yard dash--only person who ever died by throwing a spear into his own back.

by Furious George on Aug 1, 2005 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be so cute if baseball writers new about

these stats.

Meat heads will look at HR's, RBI's, BA, Media attention.

And vote based on that.

So good new for swish you are still in the hunt as long as you lead in RBI and HR.

by novaoakland on Aug 1, 2005 8:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

chacin

i think chacin has a great chance of winning ROY but cano or swish also have a pretty good chance especially if both teams make the postseason.

here are the cano and swisher's stats so far.

Cano: 89 hits, 22 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs, 39 RBIs, 9 walks, 39 Ks, .298 AVG

Swisher: 74 hits, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HRs, 53 RBIs, 30 walks, 64 Ks, .251 AVG

i would vote for swish just because he has more RBIs and HRs but maybe i'm just being biased. :)

and huston too! how many rookies have been thrown into the closer role right away and have done such an incredible job?

and DJ! he's been on a tear lately!

man, can we have a 3-way tie for ROY?

by gotgreen on Aug 1, 2005 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Swisher

If he finishes w/ .260+ Avg., 20+ HR's, and 80+ RBI's, I don't see how he doesn't win it (Unless Cano goes off)...plus, Swisher will win the political game w/ the media - He's a media darling, and a great quote. That helps as well.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Aug 1, 2005 8:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

WOW

This should give people an idea of how good DJ is. OBP of nearly .400, tops in the group. An OPS of nearly .900, second only in this bunch to Gomes. 6 HR in McAfee Coliseum isn't shabby at all in 170 AB. VORP of 17.7 second only to Cano. Yeah, I know he probably won't win and doesn't have as many at-bats, but those numbers are impressive.

by jeffds1205 on Aug 1, 2005 8:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Cano hard to beat...

Cano plays in NY; they're on national TV seems like twice a week, and not only do they lead off SPortsCenter every night, they have 3x as many highlights as any other team. This award is about column inches, and Cano is doin it in the media capital of the world.

My pick is Chacin, starting pitcher has to be the toughest job in the majors and he's having a great rookie campaign.

by BleacherDave on Aug 1, 2005 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

As much hype as the NY-media machine generates, they hardly make-or-break any individual award selections. The AL MVP has come from the West every year since 1996 (Vlad, A-Rod, Miggy, Ichiro!, Giambi, Pudge, Juan Gone, Junior, Juan Gone). The last East-Coast player to win the MVP was Mo Vaughn in 1995, the last NY player to win MVP was Donnie Baseball in 1985 - that's right, 20 years without an MVP for the Yanks.

The ROY has been given out to players from Oakland, Toronto, Seattle, and Kansas City (!) since 98. Prior to that, Nomar and Jeter won in 96 and 97, and rightfully so (side note: last three AL ROY have come from Oakland's farm system).

My point is, I don't think the media hype is going to get Cano the award - I think his performance will speak for itself at the end of the day. Remember, Cano is 22 years old, Swisher is 24. Cano plays a key defensive position, Swisher does not. Personally, I like Swisher better - his power potential is scary and I think Cano is over his head right now. But as far ROY goes, it will be hard for Swish to overtake Cano.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 1, 2005 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If DJ finishes the season with the A's

(and I assume he will), is he inelligible next year?

by ArakSOT on Aug 1, 2005 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DJ

is already inelegible, I'm pretty sure.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 1, 2005 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mean

that he has played enough this year that he will not be eligible next year, regardless of whether he finishes the year of Oak-town or not.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Aug 1, 2005 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

He's way over on ABs

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 1, 2005 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cano

will likely win. I think DJ would have to continue a torrid place to get into consideration, because he still isn't even on most peoples radar. This is one of those years, however, where there are a lot of good candidates.

Cano has had a great year so far, and he plays for the Yankees, so everyone knows who he is.

"He threw me a pitch I'd never seen before, Sexson said. The umpire asked me what it was, and I said, 'I don't know.' This guy throws ghost pitches.''

by Alien on Aug 1, 2005 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think there's a good chance

that with the position players splitting each other's votes (several good candidates with strong credentials in different ways), Chacin will put up solid enough pitching #s to stand out and win it. 16 wins, for example, would get some at-a-glance attention and his current ERA and WHIP are plenty good to do the trick.

I'll guess:

Chacin
Cano
Swish

Nico

by Nico on Aug 1, 2005 9:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually think

Street's in the best position to win this award.

If he saves, say, 15 more games, for an A's team that steamrollers to the playoffs, that's the best story line of them all.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Aug 1, 2005 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes...

If that happens, then you are absolutely correct.

by kcir on Aug 1, 2005 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it will be Swish for sure.

If he keeps up the pace he set in July his numbers should look something like this by the end of the year.

AB R H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
500 75 131 25 90 .262 .339 .520 .859

With those numbers, he will finish second on the team in HR and RBI to Chavy. Those stats on a division-winning playoff team should be enough to overcome Cano, Chacin, etc.

For all you groupies looking to get pregnant by an NBA player, good news. Shawn Kemp is planning a comeback-Jim Rome

by gatling on Aug 1, 2005 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Chacin looks like he should win, but I think Cano will since he plays in New York and everyone who follows baseball knows his name by default. The x-factor is whether or not the A's win the division and whether or not the Yankees miss the playoffs... in that case I think Swish and Street will both have excellent chances. Evenso, as the numbers now stand, I think Chacin deserves it, he's just played the best out of any of them.

by dchu on Aug 1, 2005 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs