win exp, july 27th.

look at the horrible overlays!
the 'zzz' refers to the boring states of the graph, not me during that period of time...

anyhow.. PoG: Kendall, mostly because scoots had a 9th inning ab (see the big decrease between dj+jp and kendall... that was scoots) and 3 beforehand that were unimpressive to wpa.

prior to bott9: 9.4%
Kielty hit: +8.8% - 18.2%
DJ hit: +15.5% - 33.7%
Payton hit: +18.5% - 52.2%
Scutaro botched bunt: -18.5% - 33.7%
Kendall hit: +50.5% - 84.2%

prior to bott10: 64.2%
Hatty out 4-3: -5.9% - 58.3%
Kielty out 4-3: -4.8% - 53.5%
Ellis single: +2.8% - 56.4%
Payton double: +6.9% - 63.2%
Scutaro walk-off: +36.8% - a W and happy A's fans

The most important hits are all in there.
I'll leave it at that.
Great game. Let's do it in a simpler way next time.








- below is an analysis of baseballgraphs v walkoffbalk -
By the way, I'm still using the "computer says" part of this to do the graph; I've found that "history says" and "computer says" really aren't off that much when the computer is on default RPG (4.7 per side)- however, the computer also takes run environment into effect. I personally have no idea what effect it has, but I think it works (eg: in Coors or TX, a 6 run deficit isn't as much as it was in preremodeled Comerica)...

Also, history says gives some absurd versions of zero due to small sample size.

Take this series of numbers:
bott9 - 6-0 visitors:
a) begin: 1/3062
b) runner on first: 1/768
c) runner on first and second: 0/204
d) runners on first and third, run in: 0/24
... basically, that doesn't make much sense.
in the same situations, computer says:
a) .996
b) .994
c) .983
d) .960
... that makes a little more sense.

Basically, that and run environment are the reasons I don't use walkoffbalk. However, I am getting fed up with .500 at the end of any inning at a tie.. that should favour the home team.