Need Help, is Payton an Upgrade from Byrnes?

by Instant Replay Umpire on Jul 15, 2005 3:32 AM PDT Comment 10 comments

Trying to figure out why the A's made the trades. I think we upgraded Bradford with Witasick, and Flores/Glynn with Kennedy. Not saying I don't like the trades, just need help trying to understand them, in Beane we trust right?

But did we really upgrade Byrnes with Payton?

Defensively, Payton is better
Speed wise, Byrnes is better
Age wise, both past their primes
Salary wise, pretty much can't afford Byrnes after this season, and possibly Payton as well

But what caught me is I think we downgraded our team strength of hitting against left handers because Byrnes has an OPS of 1.000 while Payton has .775.

Our outfield OPS statistics and splits
Kotsay .850 Left .700 Right
Kielty .990 Left .680 Right
Swisher .530 Left .850 Right
Payton .780 Left .700 Right

Byrnes 1.000 Left .670 Right

So did we sacrifice a little in hitting against lefties, and speed to improve a little bit in defense, pitching, and possibly hitting against right handers? Does anyone else notice that we might be an outfielder short for hitting against right handers? Or do you think with a choice of Kielty or Payton against a right hander is sufficient?

If anyone has anything that they could add to help, I would be grateful.

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Well

Well, Byrnes was stuck in a platoon with Kielty, but that platoon was pretty redundant.

All said, Kielty is less in demand on the trade market, cheaper, a superior defender, less inept versus RHP, and just as good against LHP (drop-off in power, but much better in AVG and OBP). Over the past three years, Kielty has a .889 OPS against lefties (.991 this season).

As far as Payton goes... I'm going to give BB the benefit of the doubt here. At the very least, we've significantly improved our bullpen without sacrificing much (Kielty can now start full-time against LHP, which was really Byrnes only use).

by dchu on Jul 15, 2005 3:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

re

It's not just Byrnes. It's Byrnes and Kielty. Payton is a big upgrade over Kielty vs righties, offensively and defensively. Byrnes was barely playing vs righties, so Payton's advantage doesn't matter much there anyway.

We definitely lose something vs lefties though, and with Swisher playing every game vs lefties, despite his .160 (and empty) average, plus Ginter, plus no DJ, it is concerning.

There is a way to make the switch from Byrnes to Payton beneficial [play Payton for Kielty vs righties and for Swish vs lefties], but I kind of doubt it will work out that way. Plus you still only end up with a .740 ops corner outfielder. How big an upgrade that would be shows how pathetic our current guys are from their weak sides. I'd be happier with Watson vs righties frankly. Fuck, I'd be happier if Kielty just batted righty vs righties. Payton does at least bring those spots up to serviceable (if given the chance). And they aren't right now, so that is...something.

Anyway...is Payton an upgrade? Yes and no, but that's not really the right question. Is he a better fit? Probably. Could BB find an even better fit? I think so.

by 31Boots on Jul 15, 2005 4:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It may turn out...

...the the bullpen additions will more than compensate for the loss of plate production. Add to that the increased playing time of Kietly (as mentioned above) and maybe another deal. Then, on balance (for the team as a whole), the trade looks much clearer.

Of course if the pitchers do not pan out, then the trade will go down - in the fan's eye - as a bust. The problem is that boldness can make a GM look foolish or great but it's boldness that is needed in order to win over the long-term. Boldness, more often than not, has been very good for Beane and us as fans. We fans like to gripe about moves - moves like like Rhodes (which was ultra bold but certainly not stupid...what if it had worked) but we often miss or forget about the other bold moves that show themselves to be brilliant over the long haul. Those moves are too numerous to sit and type out within my remaining free minutes of the morning.

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on Jul 15, 2005 4:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Payton is a defensive upgrade

and is probably better vs. righties than either Byrnes or Kielty.

But I still have the feeling that this is not done. If I was Payton - or Kennedy or even Witasick - I wouldn't unpack all of my bags just yet.

by OaklandSi on Jul 15, 2005 4:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dave Forst during game

talked like they were done for the year. He said Jul 31 is an artificial deadline and if you can do it earlier you have your spanking new players for longer.

I am now thinking there won't be any more flipping, though there might be another deal or two in the works. Let's see if they are just faking us out...

by Apricot on Jul 15, 2005 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

aaaah...but Beane

didn't say he was done, as he has done in the past.

Who knows? maybe they are done. It just doesn't seem done to me.

by OaklandSi on Jul 15, 2005 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Payton

Payton isn't a slight improvement over Byrnes defensively. He's a HUGE upgrade in the field.

by OaktownTribesman on Jul 15, 2005 5:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Kotsay can have a day off now

Payton plays a mean CF.

by MrIncognito on Jul 15, 2005 6:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Speed Can Kill

Json, what good is speed if an OF consistently took the wrong routes to the ball, as Bumblin Byrnesy regularly did. Sometimes his speed enabled him to compensate and get to the ball. But all too often, his initial read was so off base that the ball fell in, went over his head, or got by him.

Blez and others posted Payton's career stats for hitting righties and they are significantly better than ByrnesBum's.

by reztips on Jul 15, 2005 9:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For Speed

Kind of agree with you, Payton is an improvement on defense. And an improvement against righties, but only because Byrnes wasn't really good at it.

some quotes off Beane off the top of my head:
"I'm afraid if we play Byrnes every day, teams will figure out how to pitch to him"
"We try to put Byrnes in a position where he can succeed"

But Payton can't really steal bases like Byrnes. Which is a downgrade, but probably very un-important.

I was just wondering is Payton an Upgrade overall to Byrnes? That .225 OPS difference for lefties made up with better defense, and a minimal upgrade against righties? A lot of people are saying Beane downgraded the outfield, but did the A's really? Is Mark Kotsays back worrying the A's that bad that Beane had to get a better replacement for CF than Charles Thomas? Or was it just because he could find someone that could back up Mark Kotsay in CF with better defense and offense than anyone else on the team, better defense in the corner outfield, better numbers with certain righties than Kielty, and someone who could hit lefties pretty good?

Is there something i'm missing? Possibly a statistic like Hatteberg where DePodesta couldn't find out how to pitch to him?

The last at bat I saw Payton in on television, Zito was pitching to him, and Zito made Payton look like a fool, like a blind folded kid trying to hit a pinata with the bat, whiffing for the strikeout.

by Instant Replay Umpire on Jul 15, 2005 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs