Draft Trend: avoiding HS pitchers

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 12:41 AM PDT Comment 38 comments

The A's picked a plethora of high school pitchers in this year's draft. In fact, they picked 5 in the first 7 rounds. While Moneyball stresses using draft picks on college players (esp. pitchers), many here on AN, including myself, stated this change in strategy was just Beane & Co. exploiting another market inequity. So, is it true that college pitchers have become overvalued in recent years? I looked at the trends. Since the bulk of our HS pitchers were taken rounds 1-7, I focused on those rounds. Here are the results:

% High School Pitchers chosen per round
draft rounds
1-7 1-3 4-7
2001 44% 45% 41%
2002 42% 45% 39%
2003 32% 38% 28%
2004 24% 21% 28%
2005(-A's) 28% 35% 21%

I was surprised to see just how large the change had been. From 2001-2004 the percentage has dropped ~50%. The trend rebounded slightly (ignoring the A's picks) in 2005 due to an increase in the early rounds while the % HS pitchers taken in rounds 4-7 continued to decrease. The A's chose 3 HS pitchers in rounds 5-7, so maybe those picks were the best steals. Perhaps the increase in %HS pitchers chosen in rounds 1-3 this year represents not a reversion of philosophy of the other teams, but a strong HS pitcher draft class (of which I've heard, but I have no idea if it's true). Regardless, it does appear that the A's were able to exploit an undervalued commodity. The funny thing is the A's were the ones that started everyone in the direction of college players. Kind of reminds me of "Trading Spaces" when Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd sell off all those orange juice commodities to the Duke brothers who are trying to corner the market, only buy back the commodities when the futures report comes out and OJ commodities prices drop, bankrupting the Dukes and making themselves rich.

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yea

people caught on to the drafting college kids cuz they are more polished and ready to contribute, so our targets were probably taken, but our farm staff is great, so these kids just gotta have the drive to be great.

by ucla kid on Jun 9, 2005 1:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Numbers

How do we find time for all these pitchers to get their starts in? We can fill a whole rotation and bullpen with all our picks

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds."
Red Barber, announcer

by Furious George on Jun 9, 2005 1:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Signability

With the picking of these highschool kids a team still needs to sign the player. It sounds like there will not be a problem getting that done for the A's. HS kids offen cost more, in that they can hold the threat of college over the MLB team.

The numbers problem (too many starters) may go away with not all the kids signing with the A's. In addition some may be draft and follow type that would not come to the A's till next spring if at all.

by dougald1 on Jun 9, 2005 6:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

riddle me this batman:

for the past 4-5 yrs the a's have "exploited a market inequity" by primarily drafting college ball players-esp. pitchers. the rational was (is?): college players are more polished at their game while playing against superior competition, they are more mature and thus their skill levels are easier to predict, plus usually after 2-3 years they're ready to contribute to the big club. this rational was/is KEY for a low budget team like the a's who need a return for their dollars-ASAP. so, IMHO, beane was drafting college players out of FINANCIAL NECESSITY-not necessarily ONLY due to a "market inequity".

if this is all true, what has changed??? are the a's now growing a moneytree behind the leftfield bleachers??? and what of the inherent financial risk of drafting HSers? most of the a's '05 draft picks were 18-19 yrs old-which means IF ANY of these players do make it the big club, it MIGHT be 5-6 years for now plus another 8-9 yrs until they MIGHT reach their performance peak. thats a long time for a low budget team to sit and wait for a return on their dollar.

this has of course has been the folly of teams like TB-drafting HSers and promoting them at 21/22/23 yrs old when the player is simply not ready and the player degressing in their progress. therefore, essentially wasting thier money. meanwhile, the braves and the dodgers appear to have had high degree of success with HS players...main due i think to excellent performance systems in place for training plus they can AFFORD to wait on a player to develop for 7-8 years.

anyway, beane is certainly a facinating character. i wonder what he has up his sleeve this time?

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 9, 2005 6:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and

not to mention the fact that for a small market club doing research on HSers is very expensive in the traditional scouting way because there are alot more high school kids with crazy numbers than college kids due to sporadic competition. You cant rely on just plain numbers as much as you can on a college guy with say 4 yrs in the Pac 10 under his belt. Did the A's spend more on scouting last year? or maybe they did a shift to more HS scouting after seeing the numbers above that college kids are getting sucked up so it was time to bail from the trend.. I love hearing BB speak because what he actually lets out to the rest of the world I know is what they were doing like 5 years ago and had already moved on but just says it because his mouth is such a hype machine.. He's like the Wall Street Journal for whats valuable -everyone looks there.. but its already in his rearview once its said and he just plans to make an inefficiency from the hype.

by NYC on Jun 9, 2005 6:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice way of putting it nyc...

...there is more to this than simply "market imbalance"

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 9, 2005 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Billy Beane

Billy Beane = Alan Greenspan

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 9, 2005 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts

I think BB drafted HSers because our farm system seems pretty old actually. I'm sure someone with more ambition and time could calculate the average age of our farm system players. Since BB has been drafting College kids for years I'm sure that has our farm a bit older than most. Also, there really weren't too many great pitchers in College this year. Next years College class will have more pitchers.
Now, as for the scouting HS question. I highly doubt it would cost more to scout HSers. BB isn't going to chase down some kid in Alaska just because the kid has a 15/0 k/s ratio. Obviously they are only going to focus on small areas in the country where the competition is top notch. Another advantage tois HS teams don't travel nearly as much as College teams.

"What I'm trying to do is set our pitching up for five years," said Beane

by Satchmo22 on Jun 9, 2005 7:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

time

I still think it takes more manpower and time, vs a computer just crunching the numbers and handicapping one college league to the next.plus you gotta background check the kids more. college bound or not I think it was in Moneyball too put in a similar way i think.

As for age, who cares. I cant think of any advantage, if your team system is "old" to bring the overall age average down by getting young guys.. unless they figure having old guys is insurance for being able to take the risk on young guys.. meaning the old guys are more ready and can play in the bigs if fill ins are needed while the young ones develop .

by NYC on Jun 9, 2005 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

beane basically laid out how the a's scout

HSers by using specific demographics: age, level of comp, which school they went, maybe family background, etc, etc..i of course don't know all them.

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 9, 2005 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude, that is how everyone scouts.

its not a revelation.

I play Out of the Park Baseball, A VIDEO GAME and it has those peripherals when drafting High Schoolers.

by suggy on Jun 9, 2005 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

right, i wasn't "revealing" beane's

"magic formula" or anything

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 9, 2005 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Avoiding 'roids?

Could the new MLB anti-'roids policies have anything to do with Beane's HS bonanza?

(Yes, I know, it's not as if no one in high school is taking 'em, but the likelihood is lower than for college players, pitchers especially.)

Just a guess ...

by monkeyball on Jun 9, 2005 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There Are Plenty of Good Reasons ...

... to have taken more hight school pitchers this year:
Organizational pitching depth in the higher minors;
Market value for draft position;
Signability;
More good HS pitchers available than college pitchers;
and a million others.

But what scares me is the type of comments Eric Kubota made about the picks:
"Our scouts saw up to 95 [miles per hour]."
"Big-bodied kid with a lot of arm strength"
"Six-foot-six, good arm."
"Big-bodied kid who had a great year offensively."

Now I know this is just what Kubota told Mychael Urban for a story on a public Website and it's not all that was in his scouting reports, but don't these things sound exactly what a Moneyball-educated drafter would NOT say?

It sounds to me like the A's moved away from following track records and moved towards guaging guys' potential -- which is what you have to do in evaluating high school players.

Fine. The A's were more willing to gamble this year. I just hope they didn't give up their advantage of looking past things like physical size and how hard a guy throws to find the hidden gems who don't look it but can play.

by Eck on Jun 9, 2005 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

gambling

Beane doesnt gamble.. he actually does the opposite (at least in his own mind.) he tries to take the opportunity that has the most likelyhood of succeeding on a risk reward curve. Its an optimization through safety.. (Are there any hedge guys out there that explain the more complicated aspects of this?)
as far as the press quotes.. remember what beane said when they got dotel? "this guy throws a thousand miles an hour!" they have tendency when speaking publicly to mask their reasons behind traditional baseball values.. so i guess in synopsis dont be afraid that he's reverting to tradition its just a hype tool.

by NYC on Jun 9, 2005 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hidden gems

I think the A's nabbed the "hidden gems" in this draft. The hidden gems used to be college players who proved they could play. Now that the market has started scooping up those guys, the A's decided to go with potential guys as their "hidden gems" (although potential guys are never really hidden, since their stuff makes them high profile).

That said, I think the A's do have limit scouting resources and can't effectively scout all college and HS talent. So, I'd say their change was premeditated, based upon the trends noted above. I doubt it was a draft day decision.

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

EVERY Pick is a Gamble

It's just that with high school players you are playing longer odds for a potentially higher payout.

by Eck on Jun 9, 2005 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hence the volume?

that could be why they drafted so many

by NYC on Jun 9, 2005 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

If Billy feels like the upper minor leagye teams are stocked with pitching, he's able to take a flyer to see if he can find the next Rich Harden.

And if they don't work out, we didn't need any more AAAA pitchers anyway!

by Eck on Jun 9, 2005 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

fits Baseball Prospectus's study of draft values

Rany Jazayerli has been publishing the results of his longterm study of MLB first year player drafts over the years, which revises much sabermetric conventional wisdom.

For BP subscribers, the most recent segment is at
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4113.

Jazayerli's summary is:
You're going to get about 50% more value from a college hitter than from any other draft pick. High-school pitchers are somewhat riskier than other picks in the first round.

But after the first round, the difference between HS pitchers and college pitchers largely disappears.

So BB's distribution of his picks (first 2 for college hitters, then a big move towards HS pitchers) actually fits perfectly with Jazayerli's study of the empirical lessons from past drafts.

by branch rickey on Jun 9, 2005 12:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

nice

thanks.

by NYC on Jun 9, 2005 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats really good stuff

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 9, 2005 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

crap

gotta get a subscription

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

the Rosetta Stone of the perplexing 05 draft, found at last!

by Apricot on Jun 9, 2005 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

presumably, HS pitchers not in the 1st round have way more affordable signing bonuses...

by Apricot on Jun 9, 2005 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trading Spaces or Trading Places?

I think you watch too much "TLC" w/ the wife. Isn't the movie Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd called "Trading Places". I believe that "Trading Spaces" is that jacked up TV Show where people get mad at each other for painting each others rooms horrid colors, and stuff.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 9, 2005 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

busted!

you got me.

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a Reason

BB and Company are tired of College Coaches and their ethics.

College Coaches continually try to get the most out of every good arm that comes on campus. Jason Windsor is a fine example of this. He was throwing 250+ pitches every week.

With HS Pitchers, you can control how many pitches they throw. Where they throw. How you instruct them to throw...etc. Mold - Mold - Mold

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 9, 2005 1:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's a good point.

Windsor got worked, and it cost him a good half a season of minor league development as the A's kept his pitch count tiny, ensuring he wouldn't rip his shoulder up.

But I honestly think what's at play here (aside from the obvious undervaluation of HS players, as proved by the stats in this diary), is that after last year's draft haul mostly proved themselves as good chances to make it to the bigs, BB just doesn't see the need to cram more 'ready made' talent into an already crowded minor league system.

Yes, yes, I know we're talked of as being a 'low depth' system at the A's, but what's the point in having 9 catchers spread across four teams, and then bringing in another 2 the next year, just because they're available?

Beane is on the money - he's got enough minors talent to serve him for the next few seasons, so now he's grabbed the best college kids he could find, and then filled the rest with strong, capable HS long shots that he can mold in exactly the image he wants.

Solid move, and you watch, next year the other teams will suddenly have a hard-on for high schoolers again.

by Ozzz on Jun 9, 2005 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if it's such a good point

More precisely, I don't know that it's correct. High school pitchers can be horribly abused, worse than college pitchers at the extreme. Probably because high school coaches are one step further down the professionalism ladder, and the gap between your ace and the next guy is even greater in high school than in college, hence an even greater incentive to overwork him.

by Faust on Jun 9, 2005 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, I'd expect the A's to know

what their picks' workload has been, and avoid the guys who've been too greatly endangered.

But they can miscalculate. I remember Kubota saying he thought the A's got the best pitcher in the draft in Sullivan. They obviously knew just how much he'd pitched in college, and judged that he'd been damaged enough to drop in the draft to where they could get him, but not enough to affect his prospects after a bit of rest and rehab. It loks like the sceptics were correct and Beane & Co. were wrong with that one.

by Faust on Jun 9, 2005 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

on a related note...

Dave Stewart is Jared Lansford's agent

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 3:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Where do you get that?

The quotes I saw said that Carney was going to represent his son (and Carney said he hated the very word "agent").

by Faust on Jun 9, 2005 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stewart

Marty Lurie interviewed Stewart on his MLB radio show (which also features Art Howe) and Stewart said he was Lanford's agent. He also said he was meeting with the Lanford's today to talk strategy so they could "stick it to Billy Beane."

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jun 9, 2005 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, thanks

I guess they changed their minds and decided to do it a bit more conventionally.

Still, I don't see any problem getting him signed. If you'd said "Boras" instead of "Stewart" I'd be concerned.

by Faust on Jun 9, 2005 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

then choosing ex-teammate Stew

would probably be the least painful move for Lansford, if he doesn't like agents.

by OaklandSi on Jun 10, 2005 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reality

The reality of drafting a high school pitcher is that the risk of not succeeding is much higher since the kid has not developed and has so much further to go to be major league ready than college pitchers. The upside is that if you can develop one you have a very good pitcher. The A's have not shown much recent success in drafting college starters (ie Brad Sullivan). I think the A's may have thr right idea.

Jim

by jarforcefatherofforce on Jun 9, 2005 5:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs