Zito's misleading ERA

by SA on Jun 29, 2005 7:54 AM PDT

One reason for the impression that Barry Zito is so expendable is his somewhat inflated ERA of 4.41. But it turns out this is almost entirely due to his first two performances of the season, particularly the second game of the season when he gave up 8 earned runs in about 3 innings.

If you take out his first two starts, his ERA is 3.75, which would be 16th in the league, about the same as Johan Santana at 3.78. Even if you take out just the one really horrendous start, his ERA would be 3.89, a half run lower than 4.41.

Zito's ERA in May and June is under 3.50.

I understand that a lot of players stats would improve if you took out one bad performance, but for pitchers in the first part of the season it's clear one bad outing makes a much bigger impact than, for example, a batter who strikes out 5 times in a game.

I think the bottom line is that if Zito continues to pitch the way he has in May and June, that puts him in the top 10-15 in the league in earned runs per 9 innings, which, along with having the most innings on the staff, should be taken into account when considering what to do with him.

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His ERA

Is even lower after last night's outing. It's now 4.21 overall and 3.05 in June.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6394

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by kaweahkaweah on Jun 29, 2005 8:18 AM PDT reply actions

I hope we ink him for 4-5 more years!

He is a DURABLE, smart, effective lefty. One of the best in the league.

just still learning how to pitch too (now that the league has an idea of what they are going to see from him).

Wherever You Go...There You Are -J. Kabat-Zinn

by jrwolf on Jun 29, 2005 8:56 AM PDT reply actions

Zito has adjusted

I think after last year Zito has actually committed to become as great as he can be. I think last year he didn't seem as concentrated and serious as he could have been and that maybe because he was the no. 3 starter instead of the no.1 . Now he seems to have embraced the leadership role and is becoming a pitcher we can lean on. I think the best thing that happen to his career was the Mulder/Hudson trades. It let him know that he was the man and that he had to lead this squad on and off the field which is something Hudson and Mulder did very well the last few years.

"He's a freakin' Ace!"

by OakAs33 on Jun 29, 2005 10:06 AM PDT reply actions

also left in too long

that raised his era a bit. several starts (esp. the phillies one last week), z was cruising, but since the offense gave him nothing, macha was basically forced to leave him in too long. that game, he had i think only 1 er after 5 but a high pitch count, but since we had to keep him in another inning, he ended up w/ 5 er (lack of holds by relievers). z's been excellent this year, way better than his numbers, even w/out the TB game. if we got him some more offense, he wouldn't have to stay in past the 100 pitch count as often, and i bet his era would be in the mid-to-low 3's.

by guy incognito on Jun 29, 2005 11:48 AM PDT reply actions