Saarloos -- Is there a better 5th starter?

by andyinfremont on Jun 23, 2005 8:06 PM PDT

Riding the high of Kirk Saarloos' complete game shutout over the Mariners today, I'd like to offer Kirk up as one of the top 5th starters in baseball.

Consider both raw stats and bang for the buck:

He's making the major league minimum
ERA: 3.82 (that's 21st best in the AL out of 52 eligible starters)
Just 3 homers allowed in 75.1 innings

I'm thrilled Kirk's getting a chance with the A's this year, that he's healthy, and that he's performing so well.

Back in January, a lot of folks in AN didn't even think he was with the organization anymore, much less that he had a shot at the rotation:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/1/7/162952/7865

So throw out your kudos to Kirk (or your alternate top 5th starter nominations), and don't forget to tip your cap to Billy Beane for finding another hidden gem.

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listen u filthy humans

U CANNOT LOOK IN KIRK SARLOOS EYES WHEN YOU TALK TO HIM, but ill kill for his parking lol, ps despite the national media westcoast does exit, billy beane for world bank biyyyaaaaaaaaaaatchhhhh

billy beane 4 world bank prez

by pav on Jun 23, 2005 8:25 PM PDT reply actions

I have no idea what you just said here

But yay Kirk! And, um, Keith Ginter for Surgeon General duuuuuude.

by almostreggie on Jun 23, 2005 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Ricky for Chief Justice

of SCOTUS

by MobiusKlein on Jun 23, 2005 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Ill chill will and a hundred dolla' bill

Fo' shizzle.

Billy Beans for supreme master of the known universe!

by BruceBochte on Jun 23, 2005 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I've been a fan of his all season, and it's great to see him really justify his place in the starting rotation. He's been a great starter for the most part, there are a few blips on the radar but as a whole he's been mighty consistent. He's probably been my favorite starter to watch, [I love Zito but he scares me, frankly] since he's always so intense and he always seems to find a way to keep the A's in the game.

It's great how he's been able to contribute so much to the team without hogging the spotlight at all? The A's have won more games that he's started out everyone in the rotation. Add that to the personal family problems he had to deal with - correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't his grandmother and mom both get diagnosed with cancer during the first few weeks of the season? He's a fighter, he's tough as nails, and I'm still upset at myself for not yet being able to make it to any of his starts this year... I just seem to keep missing him somehow.

Plus he watches reality television with his wife, who is a real beautiful lady. How much more perfect can you get?!

by Melody on Jun 23, 2005 8:30 PM PDT reply actions

Err... Ignore the question marks

I had to copy this out of MSWord and I guess the formatted text didn't translate to plain text, since a few my periods turned into question marks.

by Melody on Jun 23, 2005 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Happens to me all the time

not really

Look at me! I'm blog-pimping too! http://7thinningstretch.blogspot.com

by secret ASian man on Jun 23, 2005 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Silly SecretAsianMan--

Men don't have periods.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 23, 2005 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Sympathy Pains

Look at me! I'm blog-pimping too! http://7thinningstretch.blogspot.com

by secret ASian man on Jun 23, 2005 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Hmm...

I usually feel those in my :

Nico

by Nico on Jun 23, 2005 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions

You should go to a doctor

You might have : cancer.

Look at me! I'm blog-pimping too! http://7thinningstretch.blogspot.com

by secret ASian man on Jun 23, 2005 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I won't know

un~ doctor can see me.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 23, 2005 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Suggestion

My understanding is that a ^ will clear up your :

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions

You are all bad people.

But I though the best food for a : condition was corned-beef #, hyphen-half milk and &wiches.

{ed for more awfulness.

by Apricot on Jun 23, 2005 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Seriously Nico,

: cancer is no laughing matter. You don't want to lose half of you : and be left with a ; and a colostomy bag.

Look at me! I'm blog-pimping too! http://7thinningstretch.blogspot.com

by secret ASian man on Jun 23, 2005 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions

This made me laugh so hard

My mom asked me what was wrong, and my sister told me to shut up.

by Melody on Jun 23, 2005 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Same here...

except when I'm on AN (almost always) I laugh hysterically almost every time so my mom just gives me a confused glare thing.

"But why is the rum gone??"

MySpace! Clicky clicky.

by GreenNGoldGirl on Jun 23, 2005 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Lotta clever people around here...

by BruceBochte on Jun 23, 2005 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Did everyone get

"until the" as "un~" ? I thought that might be a bit obscure, even for me.

P.S. G&GG: No WONDER your mom doesn't want you meeting these people--she sees you laughing hysterically at your computer screen every night.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 23, 2005 9:58 PM PDT reply actions

I got the tilde

But I have no idea what a ^ is called.

by OaktownTribesman on Jun 23, 2005 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Carat

Carrot. Also can be used as: Bobby Kielty looks just like ^top.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey Sal

Watcha doin wide awake? Sleepless in Cambridge? I'm packin' my stuff... gonna move to your side of the river next month.

by OaktownTribesman on Jun 23, 2005 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, can't sleep

Let's watch an A's game on my crappy MLB.tv feed sometime.

Welcome to Cambridge.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions

There was one of us here

Who had the non-crappy extra innings package... ArakSOT maybe?

by OaktownTribesman on Jun 23, 2005 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions

All I got is mlb radio

over a dial-up. We should gang up next time they play the sox, tho. And welcome to this side of the river. I like it much better over here.

"Look what we did!"

by ArakSOT on Jun 24, 2005 6:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I love Cap'n Kirk

And there is no doubt that he has been effective. Indeed, we are 8-5 in the games he has started. I think he is ideal as the fifth starter.

But there are some troubling trends. Consider:

OBP: 381 (!)
K/BB: 0.78
K/9: 2.51 - yes, after today's performance

If someone showed you a pitcher with these kinds of peripherals, you would think this guy would have an ERA of 5+

How is he getting it done, then?

BABIP: 305 - No, he's not getting lucky.
OBP vs. RHB: 311

OBP vs. LHB: 407
Looks like lefties are boosting that OBP by quite a bit. One might think that his success is due to the fact that he gets spotted out late in the game against tough lefties, but the fact is that he's faced more left-handed batters than right-handed batters. So while lefties are mashing him, he's doing a decent enough job of working around them.

3) GB/FB: 2.28. Ah, here we go. He's inducing ground balls like crazy. Say what you like about DIPS, but I think that groundball pitchers can get away with low K rates - so I don't see disaster on the horizon for Huddy unless hitters start lifting that sinker in the air. Batters are having problems lifting Saarloos's pitches, it seems, as the have a paltry 105 isolated power (SLG-AVG), which in the top 15 for MLB starters. Although he's giving up his fair share of hits, they're not going anywhere. His three homers allowed on the year is excellent. Let me repeat that: hitters have only gone yard on him three times all year!

Saarloos's groundball tendencies place him in the top ten in all of baseball. He's induced 13 double play grounders, which is also in the top ten. Granted, you only get double plays when you put on base, but the point remains that he is adept and getting two for the price of one, as it were. (Baseball Prospectus tracks double play rate and adjusts it for number of baserunners allowed. By their metrics, Saarloos is the sixth best pitcher at inducing GIDPs - ahead of even Mr. Hudson.)

Saarloos isn't much more than a #4 or #5 guy, and he's probably pitching a little over his head. Regardless, he's an extremely solid guy to have, a great pickup in exchange for - who was it? - Justin Lehr?

The main problem is that he's one dimensional: his effectiveness is largely a function of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. If he loses that, he's toast. Then again, according to Mychael Urban in today's game wrap, Saarloos is trhowing a modified curveball...so maybe there is improvement in him yet!

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:02 PM PDT reply actions

It was Kirk Saarloos for Chad Harville

Nuff said.

by OaktownTribesman on Jun 23, 2005 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

I just looked that up now and realized how wrong I was. Either way, it wasn't much. Thanks for the correction.

Harville has a 5.09 ERA for the 'Stros, a good K rate, but hitters have tattooed him for 4 doubles and 3 homers in 17 innings of work.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Geez

I'm rereading my post and I am definitely not a good writer/editor at 115 in the morning.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Excellent Analysis

YOU should be working for Bill James!

by BruceBochte on Jun 23, 2005 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Believe me

if I got offered a job to shine Bill James' shoes I'd probably quit the engineering gig.

In the meantime, there's a million better bands, with a million better songs.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 23, 2005 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Beane DIPS

I've always thought it was interesting that all of the "big three" were kind of outliers with regards to DIPS theory - Hudson and Mulder were extreme groundballers who managed to do well despite mediocre strikeout rates by holding down extra base hits and getting a lot of double plays, and Zito is an extreme flyballer whose BABIP during his best years was just absurdly low (around .200 if I'm remembering right). So far this year Saarloos has managed to survive with the ground ball, but a rate as low as 2 strikeouts per 9 IP is pretty scary even for a ground ball pitcher. The good news is that up to this year he had managed about 6 K/9, and maybe today's outing was a return to that form.

As a side note, nother claim of the sabermetricians - and a surprising one to me - is that pitchers who rely on "pitching to contact" don't age as well as those with good strikeout rates, and I've wondered if this played some small part in Beane's decision to trade away Hudson and Mulder for Haren and Meyer. On the other hand, DePo went out and gave a zillion dollars to the Mulder-like Derek Lowe, so who knows.

Wasted? What about our staring contests? And the way we always knew what football coaches should have done? - Homer

by andeux on Jun 23, 2005 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Getting away with lefties on base

So, what happens is the lefty gets on base, then a righty comes up and ground into a double play.

Works for me.

by Donner on Jun 24, 2005 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Until he K'd Sexson

(the first time), he was on a run of 24 innings with 1K. Then he K's Sexson. Then he K's the side. Go figs.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 23, 2005 10:11 PM PDT reply actions

KIRK sarloos is a saint

and ull bow to him even though he pregnated mike scoscia and molina brothers in a span of 2 minutes. beane/depodesta 05 respect the law of averages bitches

billy beane 4 world bank prez

by pav on Jun 23, 2005 11:33 PM PDT reply actions