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The Case for Trading Kotsay

Two_a_s_fans_tiny by FoolshGame22 on

(Or, Why Eric Byrnes Is Still on the Team)

There are, at least, four good reasons why Mark Kotsay should be the first trade made this year:

  1.  Over-valued.  Kotsay's value is currently perceived to be high by potential trading partners.  He's viewed as one of the better defensive center fielders in the game and, if Cashman is interested, there will be others (with much more to offer) who will also be interested before the trade deadline.  His offensive stats may tempt some foolish GM to place a higher value on him than is warranted, as his March/April performance has kept the overall numbers from slumping too far below average for a center fielder.
  2.  Injury Risk.  Kotsay's back presents an injury risk that, at age 30, will undoubtedly put him on the DL in future years and the A's probably won't be able to sign him to an extension for less than $8 million a year for what... 3 to 4 years?  And, he'll exercise his opt-out if we don't get a contract extension done before the end of this season.
  3.  Bad Trend Line.  While Kotsay started the season hot and AN'ers love his defense and "intangibles," his progressively declining offensive production as this season wears on is undeniable.  One must wonder if he is already showing his age or if his back is bothering him?  Either case is not good for this season, nor does it bode well for a long-term extension.  The stats show an alarming deterioration in the trend line from month-to-month: AVG OBP SLG OPS March/April .323 .376 .444 .821 May .255 .319 .330 .649 June .237 .281 .407 .688
  4.  Cost Efficiency.  When measuring production versus expense, the A's have less expensive options that deliver more bang for the buck, offensively.  Kotsay is costing us $6.5 million this year and, I believe, would cost us $6.5 million next year, if the A's don't extend his contract (which will make him even more expensive).  Byrnes, on the other hand, is costing us $2.2 million this year and, who knows... $4 million next year, if we hang onto him.  Just looking at Kotsay versus Byrnes in terms of offensive production per dollar spent should be enough to convince anyone that Kotsay's slightly better defensive stats don't justify the expense:
    Value Index (Cost/PA divided by Stat)
    $/Hits $/2B $/HR $/Run $/RBI Kotsay $306 $1,396 $5,584 $638 $677 Byrnes $301 $1,124 $2,060 $515 $618 Kotsay's trade value is currently much higher than Byrnes' and the incremental loss in defense is not worth the additional expense in offense.  Beane should make this trade before Kotsay's offensive stats deteriorate any further.
(Note:  All stats are before tonight's game and Kotsay just hit a meaningless home run and increased his trade value.)

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Three-run jack
To break open the game! Bad time for this thread, Foolsh... :)

by OaktownTribesman on Jun 20, 2005 9:47 PM PDT reply actions  

I knew he was gonna do that...
just to spite me.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

when you think the players
are playing just to spite you, just for you, or somehow know how you feel, that is when you need to back away from whatever media you are using to view the game without making eyecontact with anyone and check in somewhere.  Either that or check to see if your meds are straight.
"Chavvy's always been very intense about winning. People who think otherwise have no clue."--Barry Zito

by Athletics fan and runner on Jun 21, 2005 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I do agree
with some of your assesment.  I do think that we would miss kotsay's D and non statistical qualities but there would be some benifit to moving him.  He might be over valued right now and Beane could exploit that.  Your best diary yet!
"Chavvy's always been very intense about winning. People who think otherwise have no clue."--Barry Zito

by Athletics fan and runner on Jun 21, 2005 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

the spite thing was a joke...
he hit that homer just before I pressed the "post" key.  ;-)  Oh, and everybody simply assumes that I'm advocating Byrnes play center field in place of Kotsay.  That is not necessarily the case.  Giving Beane due credit for his talent evaluation, I would just as readily expect that Charles Thomas might be patrolling center field as would Byrnes.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

There's no such thing as a meaningless HR.
Kots just took the pressure off the bullpen.
Green and Gold since '73

by kent1 on Jun 20, 2005 9:53 PM PDT reply actions  

okay... it changes the analysis very little...
to concede your point.  Byrnes has still hit 1 more "meaningful" home run this year than Kotsay and he's still more cost-efficient at doing it.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

You do have a point.
My objection was to the idea that scoring runs was somehow meaningless.  Apart from that, I think that here is something to what you say.  We'd have to get some pretty good value to give up Kots, though.
Green and Gold since '73

by kent1 on Jun 20, 2005 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know what...
this idea isn't as weird as some think. Very interesting... almost sorry I didn't think it up myself. Although I still believe the A's are going to try and sign Kotsay to an extension.

by grover on Jun 20, 2005 9:57 PM PDT reply actions  

"meaningless"
Bad word choice, but overall pretty good assessment. If we can re-up Kotsay for the hometown discount, I say we do it.

by Wander on Jun 20, 2005 10:02 PM PDT reply actions  

If
we trade Zito or Kotsay now, this tells me that we're giving up on the season, which would really piss me off.
I don't think we're done. Our pitching staff is finally pitching with consistency and the hitting is also coming around. Harden's also due back tomorrow.

Billy, please don't dismantle this team just yet. I'm still hopeful we can make a run esp if we can reach .500 by the AS break.

"You are Marine kids and can chew nails while other kids are sucking cotton candy!"...The Great Santini to his children.

by sf drift king on Jun 20, 2005 10:13 PM PDT reply actions  

Here's the thing about looking at
dollar spent per offensive production. Yes, Brynes may be a better value but if I played for a nickle I'd also be a better value (possibly) than Kots. I'm not saying that one shouldn't consider it. Just keep in mind that as the stats go up, the return per dollar goes down. Thus we may be paying Kots 3+ mill more than his replacement and those dollars may not be as effieciently spent as the first 3 million would be on another player but you have to shell it out to win. those extra little stats are the difference between contention and pretention...errr
"Don't you play the flute, Huddy?"

by capper3 on Jun 20, 2005 10:16 PM PDT reply actions  

the thing is...
other than his batting average, Kotsay's stats are inferior to Byrnes.  And, Byrnes' are improving while Kotsay's are deteriorating as the season progresses.  And, next to Tejada, Byrnes is probably the most durable player in MLB.  Kotsay is not.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Byrnes' stats are improving
because he's only playing against lefties.

by boilerdan on Jun 21, 2005 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hate to shatter your illusions...
but, you're wrong.  Byrnes has had almost twice the number of AB's against righties as against lefties in June.  And, he actually has a higher batting average against righties than lefties in June.  He still slugs better against lefties, but he still outhits Kotsay in June regardless of whehter it's a righty or lefty he's facing:

Byrnes in June   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
vs. Lefties             12   .333   .385   .833  1.218
vs. Righties           20   .350   .350   .650  1.000

So, not only has Byrnes improved as a result of hitting well against righties more often than lefties, he's also out hit Kotsay against righties in June.  And, that's the rest of the story!

Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

The major difference is
that if Byrnes would never be allowed to go 0 for 17 to get that chance to hit a homerun on AB number 18.
**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

no, Byrnes would be pinch hit for...
in the 7th or 8th inning (after only 3 AB's) and not be allowed to drive in the winning run (as has been done on more than one occasion this year).  I give Beane credit for keeping Byrnes' stats down this year in order to keep his arbitration price lower for next year after he moves Kotsay.  Smart man, that Billy!  ;-)
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Give me a break!
You're going to show me 20 AB's to argue that Byrnes can hit righties as evidence that I'm wrong?  That's funny and delusional.

Byrnes' CAREER OPS vs. righties is .746.
2004 OPS vs. righties was .741.
His 2005 OPS vs. righties is .662.

Don't give me 20 AB's and tell me to reevaluate.

by boilerdan on Jun 21, 2005 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

P.S.
My comment about him "only playing against lefties" was a generalization.  What I meant was that he's not an everyday player anymore, so his overall averages will look better.  But the fact remains that he is worse than replacement level against righties - much worse.

by boilerdan on Jun 21, 2005 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm glad you corrected yourself...
rather than waiting for me to do it.  Your "generalization" was wrong, which is what I responded to.  To point out that Byrnes bats better against lefties than righties adds nothing.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

To point out that Byrnes sucks against righties
adds nothing but the truth and further points out how ridiculous it is to suggest him as a replacement for Kotsay.

by boilerdan on Jun 22, 2005 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

just admit your'e wrong...
Byrnes hit better against righties than Kielty did last year.  He'll end up hitting better against righties than either Kielty or Kotsay this year.  Will you crawl back into your hole if he does that, regardless of which team he does it for?
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 24, 2005 4:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't have a hole - don't need one
You've got a problem.  Why would I crawl in a hole because of a baseball opinion.  Get over yourself (and get over Byrnes).

P.S.  I'm not wrong - Byrnes sucks against righties.  Always has, always will.

by boilerdan on Jun 24, 2005 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh... and, Byrnes' career OPS and 2004 OPS...
against righties... you know, the ones that are "worse than replacement level... much worse" at .746 and .741, respectively?

Then, mabye somebody else should be platooned against righties in 2005, eh?

Kotsay against righties in 2005:
       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
      .258    .317   .394   .710

Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok, this is sad
Kotsay has had 800 ops against righties since 2000 except for 2003 when he was out with a back injury.

Kotsay has had a histor of success, not Byrnes.

Seriously, you need to stop.

http://www.aslegacy.blogspot.com

by Genaro on Jun 21, 2005 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps
But have you ever seen Byrnes run down a fly ball?

by AlwaysSweatin on Jun 21, 2005 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Byrnes and fly balls
Byrnes runs after fly balls and dives because he is a horrible outfielder, not because he is a good one.
Horrible may be an overstatement, but Bynres takes bd routes to balls and turns routine plays into higlight reels while Kotsay turns potential highlight reel plays into routine looking plays. Center field defense is important, ask Gil Heredia about Terrence Long in game 5 of 2000. Byrnes is not an adequate option in centerfield.

I guess if you replaced Kotsay with Byrnes in center against lefthanders, and someone with better stats against righthanders offensively and thus the pair had better offensive  numbers than what Kotsay provides the defense could become less important.

by jeffro on Jun 21, 2005 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

We're on the same side
I was making the point that Byrnes butchers fly balls, and any comparisons to Kotsay need to include a conversation about defense too. In Saturday's game against the Phillies, Kotsay nailed a guy at the plate from the deepest part of CF (via Crosby), and made a ridiculous running catch to save another run AND double up a guy at first base. How many runs he saved that game, we may never know, but Abreu def. would have scored if Byrnes was in center, and there is no way in hell byrnsey makes the catch Kotsay made later in the game.

by AlwaysSweatin on Jun 21, 2005 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Adequate...
Byrnes is not an adequate option in centerfield.

Ummm.. I do not think that word means what you think it means.  Byrnes is an adequate option in centerfield, but that is about it.  Then, the comparison that needs to be done is to take away Kotsay's offense and defense and replace it with whatever we get for him.  Perhaps we get a player whose offense and defense exceeds what we lose by replacing Kotsay with Byrnes in centerfield.

But as I said in the postgame diary, I think Beane is pretty happy with the team he has, and doesn't feel an overwhelming need to trade anyone.  This puts him in the drivers seat because he can wait for some team to get desperate and stupid as the trade deadline approaches, then fleece them.

by Donner on Jun 21, 2005 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

or for that matter
Have you ever seen Byrnes hit the cutoff man?

by popcornjames on Jun 21, 2005 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

replacement costs
one issue here is that you've compounded the argument for trading kotsay with the argument for playing byrnes.  they're two entirely different issues.  

at any rate, their career offensive numbers aren't too disparate, although byrnes has much fewer at-bats, partly due to platooning.  so possibly offensively it's a wash, but you have to place a value on the runs that kotsay saves per game.  let's say that kotsay saves X amount of runs per game.  if he were traded, then i think beane would either want to find a way to add X amount of runs per game through the offense or save X amount of runs per defense to maintain kotsay's production (i guess this would be one unit of kotsay-defense?).  and so BB would have to find one player equivalent to kotsay -- which is not byrnes, since byrnes isn't as good at defense -- or improve the aggregate defense of the team by upgrading at other positions.  and i don't think beane could do either with kotsay's salary, aside from keeping kotsay.  

i do agree that kotsay is tradeable, for the same reasons hudson was.  as for hudson, i'll be really sad when/if that happens...

by sec119 on Jun 21, 2005 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kotsay
There comes a time when you need to pony up for 'players' and not flashes in the pan such as Byrnes.  

Leadership is another intangible that you didnt mention.  The A's have tons of young players, and still have a lot of growing to do.  

I also think your forgetting that Byrnes isnt a player that can play everyday, cant hit righties for shit, and tries to pull everything.

by pickinmachine on Jun 20, 2005 10:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Byrnes isn't a flash in the pan...
He played regularly last year and hit righties just fine.  I did refer to "intangibles," which is AN code (I think) for leadership.  Personally, I think production makes you a leader, as it did with Giambi, Tejada and Hudson.  If Chavvy torn it up out of the gate this season, everyone hear would be saying "Wow, he's certainly assumed the mantle of leadership!"  But, he didn't, Kotsay did, so everyone said:  "Chavvy personality just doesn't make him a team leader, but, boy, that Kots, he's born to lead."  Well, June has certainly turned the tables on that argument.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Couldnt disagree more...
Production doesnt equal leadership.  Do you think Barry Bonds is a leader to the Giants.  Do you think hes out there showing guys how to make consistent defensive play, or adjust to big league pitching.  Maybe hes a bad example because hes an asshole but I stand by the point.

Go back to all the AN interviews of the young guys from spring training and they generally all mention Kotsay's name as a guy that has helped them out.

 

by pickinmachine on Jun 20, 2005 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

So when
is someone going to mention Kotsay's shoddy defense, his lack of speed, and the fact that his dead arm in CF costs us at least 2 runs per game?

Come on.

Just because someone is recognized for being good doesn't mean he's overvalued.  He's NOT overvalued, he's just more valued than he used to be.

Every player is an injury risk; he's less of an injury risk than Byrnes and Swisher based on the fact that he plays the outfield correctly and doesn't constantly have to dive at stuff.

As for cost efficiency:  I'd play for free!  That makes me infinitely more cost effective than ANYONE on the team!  As long as I get one hit, which I could probably do.  Or if we're counting OBP instead of AVG, all I have to do is walk.  Or get HBP.

As for the trend line, OK, there might be something there.  Talk to me in August.

by oblique on Jun 20, 2005 10:32 PM PDT reply actions  

Two additional thoughts
  1. The case for trading Kotsay can be found in AN diaries. The case for keeping him can be found every day on the field.
  2. He hasn't slumped quite as much as the numbers suggest. Tonight's game, he drove a ball that's out in 90% of ML parks, hit a solid line drive, hooked one into the corner a foot foul, and crushed a HR--and went 1/4.
I wouldn't be surprised if he wound up hitting .290 for June, or .300 for the season. All hitters have waves of up and down, and if you look right at the end of a "down phase" the numbers always look worse than they are.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 20, 2005 10:34 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree in principle
But what if Kotsay has indicated he wants out after this season? He still has the contractual right to do so... I think. That would change everything.

by grover on Jun 20, 2005 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

if Kotsay is going to finish June...
at .290, he's gonna have to hit like Lee, Roberts, Damon or Pujols for the next 9 days.  Since he hasn't done that all year... good luck. Of course, it would only take a .052 increase in Kotsay's batting average for him to hit .290, whereas it would take a .054 decrease in Byrnes' batting average for him to finish at the .290 mark for June.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Guys
hit .400-.440 over 9-days all the time;  it's not a big stretch.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 20, 2005 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Beane traded Ramon for Kotsay
when he was under no pressure to make deals.  Beane will do everything he can to sign Kotsay to an extension, I believe it will come down to what Kotsay wants.  Only if Kotsay doesn't sign with us and we are not in the playoff race by the trade deadline can I see Kotsay being moved.

by redruin on Jun 20, 2005 10:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Agree--
Beane has had his eye on Kotsay since Kotsay was drafted.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 20, 2005 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually ...
... the key to that trade was getting rid of T-Long. Yes, Billy had long coveted Mark Kotsay, but wasn't he reluctant to let go of Ramon?

I think there weren't a lot of takers for Long and Billy figured that, since he was going to have to give up more than he originally intended, he might as well get back something he wanted.

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

i agree with you too
I'd hate to see Kotsay go, he's just a great player that adds a lot to the team.

I'm really loving the Kendall-Kotsay 1-2 punch in the lineup better than the inverse that Macha started the season with.

But I wonder, if Ratto/Poole and co. can make comparisons between the A's and the Royals/Devil Rays (in terms of 'small market' or whatever), I wonder if players get that feeling.

I think every player who's come to Oakland has loved playing for our club, but that cant be true across the board.

by popcornjames on Jun 21, 2005 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Beane knows
Or probably knows that he got Kotsay's PEAK season last season. He must know that. But though it's unlikely Kotsay will be that awesome again, he's still worth the money producing what he's producing now. And as much as we all wonder about Kendall (though I think he'll end at .280 or higher), he allows Kotsay to be the perfect #2 hitter. His OBP is down a bit, but his hitting style and approach is perfect for that spot in the lineup.

Plus, the leadership thing can't be overlooked. Seriously, how many center fielders are better/more worth the money (overall, including the "intangibles")?

Beltran? Wells? (maybe) Damon (although last year, Kotsay was better and this year is likely Damon's peak year)

Anyone else?

by Crosbino on Jun 20, 2005 10:53 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll respond to my own question
Having given tought to it:

I'd take Beltran, Wells (who's not really a CF anyway), maybe Andruw Jones ... and considering all these guys are (or will be) making major bank, I think Kotsay's a steal, assuming good health.

by Crosbino on Jun 20, 2005 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll admit I'm talking with my heart here
but Kotsay provides something that no other A's outfielder has provided since Dwayne Murphy.  And that's the ability to take away hits.  He does it regularly without the flash and dash of a Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones.  Those plays that he made on Saturday against Philly won the game for the A's.

Not only that, but I don't think he's going to decline like others seem to think.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Jun 20, 2005 10:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Agree, and agree, Blez
Guys who use fundamentals, and their head, and stay in shape don't decline as fast or as far, and they help their team well beyond their "prime years" anyway--Velarde, Justice, Finley, all good to their LATE 30s or beyond.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 20, 2005 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Everyone talks about saving $$$
but if we don't spend it on Kots, then who do we spend it on? Is our goal to put an even less expensive team on the field? If so, then yes, let's play Brynes in center and Thomas in left next year. Then if Byrnes hits righties we can dump him for one of our prospects.

Kots is a piece that will help us win the division next year. He is worth the 7 mill, easy.

"Don't you play the flute, Huddy?"

by capper3 on Jun 20, 2005 11:00 PM PDT reply actions  

What Are You ... Foolish?
Are you just an Eric Byrnes fan? Or do you care for whats best for the team. I know that you feel a trade would make the team better in the future but it also seems like you want to do it all for the benefit of Eric Byrnes. Byrnes and Kotsay are not comperable players, they never have been and they never will be. Kotsay makes this team better everyday in many ways, and he will continue to do so.

by JSCHWAN on Jun 20, 2005 11:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Damn you
and your logical diction!

No, it's definitely funnier when Stewie says it.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 20, 2005 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not personal, JSCHWAN...
it's just business.  Your heart tells you Kotsay makes the team better.  The stats don't.  And, isn't AN all about stats?  It's Moneyball... buy low (which Beane did, relatively, for Kotsay) and sell high... Kotsay will bring a ton more than anyone besides Zito at the deadline.  And, Zito is looking more and more like a keeper and #2 in our rotation for years to come.  Kotsay's an aging injury risk, Zito is not.  Position players are pretty much fungible unless it's a Vlad, Bonds or Pujols.  If nothing else, Beane has proven this over and over again.  Pitching wins and Kotsay's easily replaceable, even with Byrnes.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 20, 2005 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

no connection between kotsay and byrnes.
 byrnes should be traded either way.  if kotsay is traded it's because the a's are 100% done this year, and kotsay should be replaced with thomas, not byrnes.  kotsay may or may not be, but byrnes is not a part of the future of the a's.

by xbhaskarx on Jun 20, 2005 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who's Stewie?
I hope I didnt come across like I was getting personal, that was not my intent. I do agree that Kotsay would fetch a lot in return, however I dont see him as "replaceable, even with Byrnes". I dont come to AN for the stats I come because I love this team and I have for my whole life. Stats have become a side-passion for many A's fan like myself.  I just care about winning ballgames and I feel that we can win more games with Kotsay in our lineup for the next three years. I know that is thinking with my heart, but atlest it's logical thinking with my heart. But to tell you the truth nothing would surprise me at this point and whatever happens I'll be excited and entertained.

by JSCHWAN on Jun 20, 2005 11:40 PM PDT reply actions  

incremental loss in defense?
Byrnes playing centerfield every day would be a DISASTER! I agree that Kotsay probably isn't worth more than his 6.5 million salary but he's worth every penny of it.

If he's traded it's because the A's are sure he's going to exersize his option and become a free agent next year. They can't afford to lose him and get only a draft pick in return.

by KCAs on Jun 21, 2005 12:17 AM PDT reply actions  

I think FG22 is making good points
It's just hard to make an argument though, when everyone perceives you as being biased.

I think Kotsay can be compared to Hudson in many ways... He's in/around his peak years, is known as a leader, value has never been higher, and is a known injury risk. Should the A's take a gamble and sign him? He's a clubhouse favorite, a guy that you can count on, a real gamer, his arm is wicked. Even though Hudson had those same attributes, the A's still traded him away because they knew they couldn't keep up with his salary and he had a history of injury. [And also because they thought they were getting good players in return.] As far as leadership and presence goes, can you really place a money value on that? In terms of sheer production, Byrnes is comparable; he can really hit for power, his defense is not that bad, he has speed, he's super durable. His arm isn't as killer as Kotsay's, but he's also had a few great/interesting throws, like the double clutched ball in San Francisco that still got the guy out at home plate, or the guy he threw out at third for trying to tag up on him.

If we assume for a bit that the A's decide to `replace' Kotsay with Byrnes, how will the team dynamic change? As far as I can tell, everyone enjoys having Byrnes around, but he's more like the class clown than the class president. He's usually described "a spark plug" and he's always bundle of energy. He's never going to be the unspoken leader that Kotsay is, but he brings something different to the table, and he's a real fan favorite; he arguably gets some of the loudest cheers at the coliseum.

Byrnes is known to be notoriously streaky, but Kotsay goes through his own slumps, they're just less pronounced. Contrary to all the hating Byrnes gets on this board, I think he's starter quality and if any team wanted to trade for him, he would never be the 3 1/2th outfielder that he is now. It's not his fault that the A's have a serious platooning problem going on; out of Kotsay, Kielty, Swisher and Byrnes, someone's gotta go. [This is assuming that Charles Thomas will be the '4th outfielder' soon.] The majority here wants Byrnes as the odd man out, why is not okay to take an unpopular stance and say that Kotsay should leave, not Eric?

If it really comes down to money, well just keep in mind that Kotsay will make anywhere from two to as much as four times over what Byrnes will command for next year. Can the A's keep Zito, Kendall, Chavez and Kotsay? That's 35, 40 million between those four players alone. If the A's were contention quality as whole next year, I don't think that not having Kotsay around will make that much of a difference. Either the team is good, or the team sucks in general but hey, at least you still got Kotsay right? [Locked 7-9 million, nonetheless.]

Yeah, you could never replace Kotsay, but you also can never 'replace' the Mulder, Hudson and Zito combination.

by Melody on Jun 21, 2005 12:18 AM PDT reply actions  

Melody...
I always had a sneaking suspicion that you were the 2nd smartest person on this blog.  You've just confirmed it! ;-) My vote goes to you for most objective analysis yet rendered.  (Oh, and by the way, I am biased in favor of playing our best players all the time as it tends to lead to more winning.)
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh... and, the smartest person...
has to be LowcountryJoe, as he reached almost identical conclusions to mine and posted them 4 hours earlier in his comment "The Case for a deal" in ChavyGoldX4's diary Kotsay Speaks.  Only wish I had read it earlier and saved myself the trouble.  LOL
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Although Byrnes may just walk
I kept thinking about this, and I realized that if Byrnes doesn't like the whole platoon/disrespect thing that's going on now, he may very well just decide to leave after this season. He's only signed through this year anyway, if his contract isn't extended he's going to leave as a FA and I'm sure there are many teams out there who would love to have him around. Really quite a shame, because I thought the Kotsay/Byrnes night/day combo is so very unique, but there's a possibility that not just one, but both, will be gone after this season. That may also be part of the reason why the A's haven't really made an attempt to move Byrnes even though everyone keeps expecting them to. Byrnes isn't MLB-minimum wage cheap, but he's inexpensive for what he has to offer.

So I guess we'll see who leaves and who stays... There are good and bad reasons as to why we should trade Kotsay, as well as good and bad reasons as to why we should look to unload Byrnes. But wasn't it great last season, when Kotsay usually led off with Byrnes following in the second spot? [Except that Kotsay doesn't like leading off, but that's an debate for another day.]

by Melody on Jun 21, 2005 2:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Byrnes
He's property of the A's through 2007 (I believe).  Billy Beane will keep offering him arbitration until another team offers a Grade-A/Grade B+ Prospect for Byrnes...otherwise, I look for Byrnes to continue to platoon in the outfield.

He's just not an everyday player.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 21, 2005 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Save myself..trouble"? You are trouble!
Only wish I had read it earlier and saved myself the trouble.

See, I'm glad you troubled yourself and made this diary.  I'd much prefer that you be the whipping boy on this one...it's a role that you seem to both relish and excel in.  Now, stop saying such flattering things of me and let me go back into quasi exile again.

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on Jun 21, 2005 3:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem...
...with a purely statistics based analysis, no matter how objective is, how to quantify the defense.  

A good example of this may be a bad first baseman failing to catch a throw from third (which a good defensive 1B would catch) and the play would still be scored as E5.

One must remember that defensive statistics is one of the "frotiers" in sabermetrics.

One thing about Kotsay is that even in his slumps this guy delivers sick defensive plays.  The Saturday game agaisnt the Phils brings two plays to mipn in which Kotsay's defense was insturmental.  One was that assist on Abreu, that was a key play.  I honestly don't see Byrnes making those kinds of plays by virtue of his weak throwing arm.  If Byrnes was in CF I don't think he would have made a good enough throw to Crosby to relay home.

Now I'm not bagging on Byrnes' defense, like you I do belive that his defense isn't that bad. As long as he doesn't need to throw the ball.  He's pretty decent a catching balls out in the outfield due to his superior athleticsm.  But I've seem him make some gnarly throws.

Yes, Byrnes bring a lot in offense against lefty pitching, but Kotsay's defense is a rare thing and is not something to be traded away lightly.

Looking for a new sig, mourning the release of Andy Painter.

by secret ASian man on Jun 21, 2005 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

"frotiers" in sabermetrics
If I remember my high-school French correctly, I think you just outed a bunch of guys at BP.

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Melody Writes What I'm Thinkin'!
If you trade Hudson and Mulder because you believe they've peaked and may have injury concerns, isn't it consistent to trade Kotsay for the same reasons?

I'm not going to argue that Kotsay's not a tremendous asset to the team -- because he is. Yes, his offensive numbers are middle of the road for a major league outfielder, but his defense is so good that he makes the pitchers better and the other outfielders better. Mark Kotsay is probably the most valuable position player on the A's. (Or maybe Crosby.)

But, as Melody wrote, Hudson, Mulder -- and I'll add Tejada -- were pretty valuable, too. The front office let them go because it judged that their production wasn't going to be worthy of the contracts they would receive.

Same with Kotsay. He's a 30-year-old center fielder with back issues. Realistically, do you want the A's to be paying him $8 in three years?

I can respect if you think the A's should have kept Hudson and/or Mulder AND think the A's should keep Kotsay. But it appears to me that there is a flaw in the logic of "trading Hudson was a good idea but keeping Kotsay is the right move."

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Injury concerns
Did Kotsay spend six weeks on the DL for his back last year?
Looking for a new sig, mourning the release of Andy Painter.

by secret ASian man on Jun 21, 2005 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, But He's Missed a Month In
Two of the last Five Years.

Back Injuries don't go away. Ask the A's trainer.

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not as sure
the A's are going to trade Byrnes as many here think.His OPS against left handers this year is one of the best in baseball and he's relativley inexpensive.

by KCAs on Jun 21, 2005 12:39 AM PDT reply actions  

See, here's the thing
You are just a Byrnes fan and not an A's fan, there is no other way you can spin it but it's the truth.

Beane has brought up giving Kotsay an extension after dabbling  with the subject in May. If Beane wants to keep him, that's good enough for me.

Frankly, this act is getting a little old; Byrnes June numbers are mainly from lefty pitchers.

http://www.aslegacy.blogspot.com

by Genaro on Jun 21, 2005 1:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Do true A's fan's
have to be Beane groupies?  Do you have to lose the ability to think and reason independently and blindly cheer Beane's every move?
**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

wrong, again...
as I pointed out to dsward89, above, Byrnes has almost twice as many AB's against righties as against lefties in June.  Look before you leap!
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really?
Byrnes in June   AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
vs. Lefties             12   .333   .385   .833  1.218
vs. Righties           20   .350   .350   .650  1.000

Looks to me like he still hits lefties better then righties; 30 points of OBP and about 200 more points in SLG is significant.

When he can post better numbers against righties on a consistant basis, you would be correct.

And anyways, Byrnes is just as "old" as Kotsay and he's still learning to right-handers on a consistent basis.

The reason why I said Beane's actions were good enough for me is because I will take his word over the Byrnes-faithful any day of the week.

http://www.aslegacy.blogspot.com

by Genaro on Jun 21, 2005 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

never said Byrnes doesn't hit lefties better...
than righties, even in June.  Since you took the stats I posted, you surely must realize that.  All I contradicted was the constant (and wrong) notion that all of Byrnes' improvement was due to hitting only against lefties, which has been posted repeatedly.
Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I knew it
I saw who wrote it and i instantly knew that Eric Byrnes would somehow be associated. Eric Byrnes will be gone next year regardless of whether Kotsay is or not. There is 1 reason i see for trading him:

He says he'll opt out at the end of the season.

Thats the only real reason for trading Kotsay. If we can sign him to a two year deal with another option, thats perfect. No matter what you show, Kotsay is keeper, Byrnes is not.

Byrnes can not hit righties: So he had a 250 BA and mid 700 OPS. Thats not all. First of all proudction goes way down. He is MUCH more prone to strikeout. He never gets the fundamental things down like getting the guy home from third. He's a pop up machine verse righties. All of his production this month has come versus lefties. Oh, check out a few other splits this year.

Vs. Left- .345/406/603 with 3 homers in 58 at bats.

Vs. Right- 210/292/370 with 3 homers in 100 at bats.

Home- 354/400/608 with 3 homers in 79 at bats.
Road- 165/2 72/304 with 3 homers in 79 at bats.

Most of June has been at home....

California here I come, right back where I started from, Californiaaaaa, Californiaaaaa, here I coooooome (June 24th). (OC, i was inspired)

by ohad on Jun 21, 2005 2:35 AM PDT reply actions  

I was just writing about that
Are you sure that he said he's going to opt out? I kind of thought so, since honestly, it would be a better move on his end if he just left and went to play for another team that would give him consistent playing time. But I haven't seen any solid evidence or quotes from him directly that would offer any 'proof' of such.

As for the splits stats... Everyone knows his stats against right handed pitching is significantly worse, but a good portion of players have that split discrepancy. I hate to bring up Chavez as an example, but three years ago he couldn't hit left handed pitching the same way Byrnes 'can't' hit right handers now. Okay, so there are much fewer left handed pitchers for Byrnes to smack down upon, but to be fair, his hitting against righties has begun to improve. Byrnes is getting way too much light shined upon his shortcomings, and not enough credit when it is deserved.

by Melody on Jun 21, 2005 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh God
I said that wrong, and i'm not sure you understood it either. I just realized that you thought i was talking about Byrnes, i'm talking about Kotsay. What i was trying to say was that there would only be one potential reason for trading Kotsay, and that is if he tells us he will opt out.
California here I come, right back where I started from, Californiaaaaa, Californiaaaaa, here I coooooome (June 24th). (OC, i was inspired)

by ohad on Jun 21, 2005 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough
"Byrnes is getting way too much light shined upon his shortcomings, and not enough credit when it is deserved."

Even the most diehard fan has to admit that Byrnes gets sunshine blown his way for the things he does do well.  The diving catches, running into walls...the man is exciting to watch, but excitement does not translate into production.

I think since the T-Long years, Beane's defensive evaluations have gotten better.  From everything I've heard, Oakland's front office considers Kotsay to be one of the top defensive centerfielders in MLB, lack of panache notwithstanding.  My eyes, although they have been known to lie before, agree.

It's the little things like playing the ball of the wall on the right hop, setting yourself up for the throw, etc, etc that make a CF a great CF.  We can hide the defensive shortcomings of say, a Swisher or Kielty by having Kotsay out there.  Without a groundball staff like we had before, outfield defense becomes that much more important.  Maybe Hudson and Mulder's groundball tendencies account for the T-Long in CF experiment.

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on Jun 21, 2005 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

There are fewer lefty pitchers.
If a lefty can hit lfety pitching, it's not as bas as a righty that can't hit righty pitching.

Not making a lame excuse for Chavez, though.

Looking for a new sig, mourning the release of Andy Painter.

by secret ASian man on Jun 21, 2005 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

"D" Is The Key
mkt, KCA and others have pointed out Kotsay's superb defense in pivotal CF. Bumblin Byrnesy's Butcher Shop, even in limited LF, reveals a player who regularly misses fly balls by taking the wrong route, has a weak arm, and an even weaker brain as he consistently misses the cutoff man.

Now, perish the thought, imagine the Byrnes Butcher Shop in CF: A's pitchers would gag on all the residual bloodshed.

Finally, ByrnesBrain most of the season has been hitting BELOW .200 vs righties and now is slightly above that. Melody, do you really think that given his terrible fielding and below Mendoza Line batting vs righties that other teams are knocking down the door to acquire that bum? If they were, BB would have sent his sorry ass packing long ago...

by reztips on Jun 21, 2005 7:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Kotsay is 29 during the entire 2005 season
next year (his player option year) he will be 30. If the A's sign him to a three year extension (perhaps with a club option for a fourth year), he will be 33 during the 2009 season. For an outfielder that is certainly not too old to be productive.

It's true that Kotsay has had back problems. But if he continues to take good care of himself he may not miss too much time because of it. (Of course you never know, and other ptoblems or injuries could occur, but any player takes that risk).

So let's look at what he brings to the team, and who the A's might be able to replace him with. He is an acknowledged team leader. His defense is so good that he puts the entire defense up a notch. He can probably be counted on to hit for an average just below .300, and decent offiensive numbers all around. Do the A's have anyone who could replace him in the organization now? I don't think there is currently anyone that can. (Some people have pointed to CT but I think the jury is out, especially offensively in the majors (his good production in Atlanta was his first time around, the proof will be whether he can adjust to the pitchers' adjusting to him).

I think the A's should (and will) try to sign him to an extension. But if they can't they will probably try to get something good for him in a deadline trade.

by OaklandSi on Jun 21, 2005 7:48 AM PDT reply actions  

This is why
I'm glad I'm not a GM. I can see either Kotsay option - re-signing or trading him - becoming either a good or a bad decision. For me, this is a real tough call.
"Look what we did!"

by ArakSOT on Jun 21, 2005 8:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Here at AN ...
... we prefer you make an ideological argument and stick with it to the death -- kind of like the U.S. Congress.

There is no room here for seeing both sides.

Aren't you as all knowing as the rest of us? Can't you see into the future, too?

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

I've said it Before
and I'll say it again...

Given that Chavez is locked up for multiple years (though I would listen to the right offer for him given that I do not think he'll ever be the player he should be for a full season) and that it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to unload kendall,

the A's will have to choose between Zito and Kotsay. They can't spend 40 million plus on 4 players. No way. And they may choose to let both of them go, but at least one must go.

Tough, tough choice. Zito is younger. But Kotsay plays every day and anchors the defense.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Jun 21, 2005 8:32 AM PDT reply actions  

Great point...
And if I had to choose between Zito and Kotsay (and to all of AN - thank your lucky stars every day that I don't), I'd take Zito. Not only is he still young, but he doesn't seem to be as much of an injury risk as Kotsay. And the odds of Zito fully regaining his prime (e.g., the Cy Young year) is greater than Kotsay.

But I'd be happy keeping either one. That's why I'm glad I don't have to choose one -- I'd have to choose against the other.

Being a GM sounds fun, but I think it would turn my brain into pudding.

Pants! Pants! Sing the praises of pants!

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Jun 21, 2005 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Byrnes
  • sucks against RH pitching, so he is a part-timer
  • is not equipped to play CF, so he is not an alternative to Kotsay
These are independent issues.  You should be comparing Byrnes to Kielty.  That's his only chance to win back a regular job.

by boilerdan on Jun 21, 2005 8:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Well
He's viewed as one of the better defensive center fielders in the game

which is appropriate, since he IS one of the better defensive CF in the game.

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on Jun 21, 2005 9:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Frank Menechino?
Picker of Nits since '63. Or so I thought until I discovered AN. Now I feel like a nitpiker.

by McFood on Jun 21, 2005 9:17 AM PDT reply actions  

Replace Kotsay with Byrnes?
You said "incremental loss in defense".

Unless you meant "exponential", I nominate that for Funniest Quote of the Month.  

Picker of Nits since '63. Or so I thought until I discovered AN. Now I feel like a nitpiker.

by McFood on Jun 21, 2005 9:21 AM PDT reply actions  

That would be more like
"excremental loss".]Kotsay is hands down the best centerfielder, defensively, in the game. The A's will get the extension done and Kotsay likes playing for this team. We build around guys like this with our young pitching and there is not one prospect in this organization who can hold Kotsay's jock. The guy is a flat out stud and good luck trying to find someone else to fill his shoes. "Sign his ass to an extensiobn now!'

by mrod on Jun 21, 2005 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Let's Go to the Scorecards
The New York press is drooling over the possibility of trading for Mark Kotsay, putting him in CF, and moving Hideki Matsui back to left field.  Mike Francessa (from the Mike and the Mad Dog WFAN radio show) said the without question Kotsay would be the best fielding Yankee centerfielder since Paul Blair played it for a year in the late '70's.
  Do you really believe that Eric Byrnes would get the same comment? If you do, you are even more biased then you appear.  Byrnes is fun to watch, he hustles, he crashes, he wobbles and dances, but he is in no way a quality outfielder. His numbers against RHP are simply way below Major League outfielder average....and the last time I checked about 80% of the pitchers in the Majors are right handed.
"If there is a fear of falling, the only safety consists in deliberately jumping." -- Carl Jung

by Steve in Napa on Jun 21, 2005 9:32 AM PDT reply actions  

The whole issue of
"peaking" is so overrated, IMO. Whatever age, around 29-30, is considered a player's peak is a MEDIAN peak age in MLB that has a HUGE standard deviation.

In other words, many, many players peak at 25 and many, many players peak at 34. Just a quick glance at Finley (CF, no less), Clemens, J. Franco, Moyer, and pick 12 others you want to name, should reveal the huge spread of "peak" ages, and how many players are more productive in their 30s than in their 20s.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 9:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Evaluation
There are a few major components to this evaluation that have had little mention so far.

The first is, if you want to evaluate a Kotsay trade, Kotsay's value is only half the equation. What is the market for him right now? Is someone willing to give up a stud 2B prospect? I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

Secondly, what is the margainal loss in replacing Kotsay in the lineup and field? I don't think Byrnes is the only player in consideration to replace Kotsay. If the trade deadline rolls around and Thomas has a .900 OPS in AAA, how much do we lose by trading Kotsay? Thomas should play a good CF, and if he shows he can provide similar or better offensive production, that makes a stronger case for a trade.

My last point is about salary. You can't simply compare Kotsay's salary to other CF'ers. That money can be spent on players at any position. At some point, the A's are going to have to address their offense from the 2B position, too. If Beane feels he can get a better offensive and defensive combo by opting for a replacement level CF and spending the money on a 2B, that effects this issue too.

I would like to see Kotsay stay. He's one of my favorite players on the team, and he's one of the best defenders in the league. However, no matter how much I like him, at some point the subjective analysis has to kick in, and Beane will have to start looking at all his options.

by MrIncognito on Jun 21, 2005 10:18 AM PDT reply actions  

who says Kotsay will re-sign?
Come on folks. Let's say you're Kotsay. You are a bad-ass centerfielder. You know your back is iffy. You know your best three years are ahead of you. Are you going to sign an extension with the A's who are possibly going to be in contention, and risk being unsignable at the end of it due to decline or injury? Or are you going to wait on a fat long multi-year contract with some contender in a market with few strong CFers?

As a Kotsay fan, I think it's a close call whether to extend him for  three years or less vs. trading him. And, sure as a fan, it would be great if he re-upped for the next three years. But if it were my son, I'd advise he check out the open market.

by Apricot on Jun 21, 2005 10:45 AM PDT reply actions  

future Yankee
They're trying to trade for him now, they have Matsui in CF and Tony frickin' Womak in left.

There have to be dollar signs all over that.

by MrIncognito on Jun 21, 2005 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

not gonna happen!
Kotsay brings too much to this team, the young guys all worship him and can learn so much defensively and offensively. yes, he has been struggling lately, but his consistency is returning in late june, and his defense is still way above solid. Kotsay could ask to be traded, but Beane resurected his career, i dont see him doing that. Besides who knows whats gonna happen next year, the young guys look pretty good. I say this deal is unlikely but could still be a maybe near the trade deadline. Right now the bottom line is Beane wants this team to improve, and trading Kotsay will not help, while trading byrnes will.

by OAKobsession on Jun 21, 2005 11:33 AM PDT reply actions  

If you
keep trading, or not re-signning, your best players(with "intagibles") year after year, you're going to screw the pooch. These young guys need to jell and create some chemistry together before they'll win.
Picker of Nits since '63. Or so I thought until I discovered AN. Now I feel like a nitpiker.

by McFood on Jun 21, 2005 11:55 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm so TIRED of hearing how good Byrnes is!!!
Eric Byrnes is one of the worst outfielders in professional baseball!  Period!  The mere notion of this sounds sacreligious, but people need to be objective and understand this.  Yes he makes spectacular catches, yes he runs like the wind, yes he gives 110% all day every day, but he has NO DEPTH PERCEPTION and rarely if ever gets a jump on the ball.  He also has an extraordinarily weak arm.

Diamondvision constantly shows a 2003 highlight of a catch Byrnes made in centerfield when he ran back to his right and dove for the ball.  I saw this play clearly from my seats and any ordinary centerfielder would have jogged over and made this a routine play.  However, Byrnes ran IN on the ball and then had to use his speed and quickness to barely catch up to it and make the "spectacular" diving catch.

Kotsay on the other hand is quietly one of the best centerfielders in baseball.  If you understand the game, you would understand that the play he made on Saturday where he took the bouncer off the wall and threw it to Crosby in about a nanosecond was as spectacular as any play you will ever see.  It saved the game.

And then, he tops it with the running catch that was so unbelievable, that the runner on first was already headed for third knowing that only superman could make that grab.  Trading Kotsay would be the biggest mistake the A's could ever make.  Billy Beane knows this and there is NO WAY that Kotsay will be traded.  The rumor itself is ridiculous.

by Alameda Greg on Jun 21, 2005 12:00 PM PDT reply actions  

great post
kotsay took that ball off the wall and turned and fired the ball in without striding..which is quicker..i was taught that in college and i teach that to my college players..the guy is fricken soo fundamentally sound..it's great..
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I couldnt agree more
Byrnes is a total embarrasment in the outfield. Its really hard to watch him out there. I have never liked him and he should have been gone long ago.

I look foward to the day Byrnes is traded. I expect him to take cheap shots at the team (Macha and Beane) on the way out as well. It seems to be in his nature.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

proof?
"I look foward to the day Byrnes is traded. I expect him to take cheap shots at the team (Macha and Beane) on the way out as well. It seems to be in his nature."

do you have an example or proof of this?

its one thing to question a guy's defense or ability to hit off of rhp, but to insult his character w/o knowing him is a cheap shot.

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Byrnes haters
they always resort to ugly rhetoric when backed into a corner.  How typical.
**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am not a Byrnes Hater
For the record, I am not a Byrnes hater.  I am an objective A's fan and I see through the dives and flashiness of Byrnes.

I will say this:  The diving catch he made this year (a weekend game) in foul ground on the bullpen mound was one of the best catches I have ever seen.  It should be a Top 10 Web Gem for the year, and maybe an ESPY Award.  It was better than any catch Kotsay has made all year.

BUT, this still doesn't mean he's a good outfielder.  He's simply not.

by Alameda Greg on Jun 21, 2005 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uhmm
What about "I DONT CARE WHAT MACHA SAYS??"

That doesnt count?

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

no
are you refering to the statement made after the dan on the field incident, when reporters asked macha how he felt about his player tackling a guy who was disrupting the game by running around the outfield?

the same harsh comments could be made about your namesake.

I like Chavy alot, but he has stuck his foot in his mouth more than once.

That doesn't give any of us here cause for attacking him as a person.

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

oops
dan = fan, for those of us who can only type using the 2 finger method.

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I disagree
It shows a lack of respect for your manager. Something that Byrnes has shown. I wouldnt be suprised to see him do it again. I find that to be totally rationale conclusion.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

"a"
totally rationale conclusion. Damn the no edit.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

agree with you there
my typing sucks

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

but do you
agree that the same logic can be used to make disparaging remarks about #3?

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I dont remember Chavvy ever saying
He didnt care what Art Howe or Ken Macha had to say about anything, on or off the field.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

the comment he
made about how he would have kept tejada.

it was an isolated comment, but anyone could use it as he has no confidence in management's decisions.

byrnes said that as a reply about tackling goofs not about macha's approach to the game.

and by majority of the polls on AN, shouldn't we applaud byrnes if that were his intent. (not serious)

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Chavez said that comment
In putting himself down and saying how great another player is.

Byrnes essentially said "I dont care what my manager said"

There is a big difference.

If Chavez was asked the question: "Billy said he thinks youll be better than Tejada" and he responded "I dont care what Billy said" it would be the same thing, and much worse than what he actually did say.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

and you don't think
that you're taking byrnes' comment out of context?

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Out of context?
No, I dont. Byrnes said he didnt care what Ken Macha had to say and he wasnt joking around. It doesnt get much clearer than that.

So clear that Macha felt he needed a closed door meeting with Byrnes because of it.

If this Arthur Rhodes making that comment, people would be all over him, but since its Byrnes, and some people like him, its overlooked.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

in regards to
tackling a guy that was attempting to climb over the left field wall, byrnes does not care what macha thinks.

from that we can assume that byrnes doesn't care how macha: manages the team, chooses personel for each game, chews gum vigorously, prefers boxers or briefs, tabs or shakes?

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

The fact that
he thought it was okay to open his mouth and say a comment like that is sufficent for me to say that he showed a lack of respect for his manager in the media. I could care less what the topic was, if he wasnt joking around.

I think its quite the fair assumption because Macha clearly didnt like it. Couple that with the fact that i personally think Byrnes feels like he isnt getting a fair shake here, and I am guessing it is likely that he will make some negative comments on his way out the door.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

actually
I wish I could find the article from last week (I thought it was on sfgate, but now can't find it)... Chavy said, "Ken Macha can kiss my [behind]"  WHICH WAS A JOKE in response to Macha joking about how he needs more at-bats during spring training in order to be ready to hit for real when April arrives.  I repeat, Chavy's comment was a joke, and it definitely cracked me up when I read it, because I can just sort of "hear" him saying it... but it's also something that could be taken badly out of context if someone who was reporting on it chose to not mention the fact that it was a joke.

by Poppy on Jun 21, 2005 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thats totally irrelevant
Byrnes wasnt joking. Chavez was.

Macha felt the need to have a closed door meeting with Byrnes because of it. Chavez and Macha were clearly kidding. That comment really has nothing to do with this conversation.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

sure it does
It has to do with the potential damage that can be done when something is taken out of context.

But hey.  Have fun.

by Poppy on Jun 21, 2005 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right but it wasnt
And neither was Byrnes comment as evidenced by the closed door meeting that followed. So again it has nothing to do with this conversation. Have fun.

by ChavyGoldX4 on Jun 21, 2005 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think
a better example is when byrnes dove for a ball in leftfield with 2 or 3 runners on..they were winning at the time and there were 2 outs..anyway he missed it by 2 feet..it was a poor decision..but yet after the game he stuboornly said thast he would dive for that ball again...i know understand why he does not improve through coaching..he seems stubborn
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

exactly
That's a great example of possibly detrimental stubbornness, even though Byrnes wasn't responding to, say, Macha or Fischer telling him "you shouldn't dive."

Ah, but if only Byrnes could take "defensive" lessons from some of AN...   LOL  ;)

by Poppy on Jun 21, 2005 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

can you back that statment
or are you relying on annectodal evidence (one missed catch IS NOT every catch) and the group mind beliefs of this blog?
**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

totally agree
"Kotsay on the other hand is quietly one of the best centerfielders"

I love the "quietness," but I think it has also cost Kotsay a Gold Glove so far... the way he quietly takes his position where the ball is going to be, before it gets there, because he manages to see it right off the bat and doesn't have to wait until it's clearing the infield before choosing his route -- therefore making almost every play look "routine," instead of having to make a mad, panicked dash and dive and hope the ball lands in his glove.

by Poppy on Jun 21, 2005 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for spelling it out!
This is EXACTLY what I meant by "quietly".  There was a great line from Field of Dreams where Kevin Costner says how a great how a great outfielder know the pitch and can start his stride at the beginning of the swing.  While this is a little much, it seems that Kotsay does exactly that.  He's amazing to watch when you see him 70+ times a year.

by Alameda Greg on Jun 21, 2005 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

To Extend or Not To Extend?
"Trading Kotsay would be the biggest mistake the A's could ever make.  Billy Beane knows this and there is NO WAY that Kotsay will be traded.  The rumor itself is ridiculous."
------------------------------------------------

The problem is that Kotsay can leave after this season if he feels like it.  If Kotsay was signed, then this wouldn't be an issue.  It is an issue because Kotsay will probably opt out of his deal this season, and leave us for nothing (supplemental picks?).

If it looks like we can't extend him (for the money that we want), what choice does BB have?  It would be better to get a Grade-A prospect now.  Someone who is ready to step into a starting position.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 21, 2005 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly...
"It is an issue because Kotsay will probably opt out of his deal this season, and leave us for nothing (supplemental picks?)."

Do you think there is really any question about it?  Of course, he's going to opt out of his deal.  He ain't playin' here or anywhere else next year for $6.5 million.  The A's either extend him or he is gone after this season is done.  Period.  Is he going to be worth a 4-year deal at $8 million next year and $12 million in Year 4?  Isn't that the Dye contract all over again?  And, Dye had some power.

Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

It would be sad to trade him...
I would let him walk because if we get nothing from the yankees or whoever wants him, that puts a bad burn on Beane. But if he does go essentially the outfield will be Kielty, Swisher, and possibly Thomas whichever way Byrnes gets traded or walks which makes one thing wonder if Kotsay stays or not.
You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don't play together, the club wont be worth a dime.-Babe Ruth

by doublehustle22 on Jun 21, 2005 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

the real issue is what he wants
i think there's no way we shouldn't sign kotsay to a 3 year extension so long as it's at a reasonable price (ie his current salary, or maybe slightly higher). yeah, he could get a little more on the open market, but only a's fans who see him all the time truly appreciate his defense (since he makes everything look routine and doesn't get web gems as such) and his offense (he's a line drive machine who's consistently .280-.300). what outsiders will see is a solid cf, who hits for little power and a decent, but not great average. which is why i think we might be able to afford him. if he wants more than $10m/year, then definitely trade him. but i have a feeling he'll stick around. we're a young team on the rise, he's a california guy, and he's treated like the man by his team and the fans.

by guy incognito on Jun 21, 2005 12:10 PM PDT reply actions  

We can do no wrong with Kotsay ...
I am a huge Kotsay fan ... always have been.  The Kotsay situation is a GM's dream right now.  He's a great CF, and he has a very reasonable contract.  But if I'm Kotsay and want the big money, then he should go get it.  I think BB has to make him an offer VERY soon and see if he's interested in staying.  If not, no hard feelings and we get what we can for him now, or if you don't like what is offered, let him play out the season in his contract year and take the draft picks.  He will certainly help this team (which still has a heartbeat today) this year. Worst case scenario here is that he gets hurt and exercises his option with the A's, which is ok too.  We have plenty of bad or difficult contract situations, but Kotsay is not one of them.  We should be able to come out of any of them well, provided we do not make a bad trade.

by iceplant on Jun 21, 2005 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

One of the Fox announcers
described the path Byrnes takes to a fly ball like that of "a moth going to a flame".
Picker of Nits since '63. Or so I thought until I discovered AN. Now I feel like a nitpiker.

by McFood on Jun 21, 2005 12:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Yankee fans are so insane
There's a poll up on ESPN--who would you trade?  Yankees and Red Sox fans are typically overrepresented in the results.

This poll is no different.  When it asks "Will Mark Kotsay be traded to the Yankees", here's a breakdown of the responses:

38.8%  Excellent or good chance
30.7%  Average
21.7%  Poor
9.6 %  No chance

Hey Yankee fans!  You don't just get Kotsay because you're the Yankees, and you want him!  You need to trade top-tier prospects to get it done...AND YOU DON'T HAVE ANY!  Have fun watching your aging, mortgage-the-future team fall apart.

A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 1:06 PM PDT reply actions  

This is great!

If Yankee fans are expecting that Cash-man is going to deal for Kotsay, he must be overvalued.  That suggests that this would be a great time to deal him  Problem is, as has been reported on this site before,  the Yankmees don't have much in the way of prospects.  So Cash is going to have to get prospies from somewhere else if he wants to get Kotsay.  

On the whole, if it comes down to Kotsay and Zito (both contracts up after 2006) for the long term, I have to go with keeping Zito.  Left-handed Cy Young award winners are a lot harder to come by than above average defensive CFs with intangibles (leadership).  Keep in mind also that Z has never been on the DL.  Kotsay's fluky back could become a big problem in any long term deal.  Plus, a rotation of Harden, Zito, and Haren for the next 4-5 years could be the new Big Three.  I would much rather have three aces in the rotation, than two aces and Kotsay in CF (or on the DL with his back troubles).  

However, I don't think BB is going to deal him this year.  I bet he waits till next year.  If the a's are in contention by the deadline they'll keep him and let him walk after 2006.  If they are out of it, they'll deal him before 7-31-06.

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

foolish
Over-valued.  So where are the offers for anything other than single A super stars that may never suit up in MLB? Why not take the draft picks when he leaves instead?

Injury Risk..  Swisher, Harden, Crosby, Kielty, Calero, ...DL risk?????????/

Bad Trend Line.  Who doesn't have bad months? During Kotsay's "good" months he can carry this offensively power challenged team! Kielty''s bad trend line spans seasons.

Cost Efficiency..  When measuring production versus expense, Since Kotsay hits righties with power compare him to A's outfielders that hit righties with power.. Kotsay is costing us $6.5 million ... Byrnes ... $2.2 million ... Just looking at Kotsay versus Byrnes
Kotsay provides 3x Byrnes power vs righties, 5-6X Kielty's.

meaningless home run. That HR gave our starter working room to better challenge hitters, how is that meaningless?

by Billy Ball 2005 on Jun 21, 2005 1:19 PM PDT reply actions  

"Since Kotsay hits righties...
... with power compare him to A's outfielders that hit righties with power."

Kotsay is hardly killing righties:

Kotsay against righties in 2005:
       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
      .258    .317   .394   .710

Maybe before this year, but not this year.  Yeah, he's currently better than Byrnes and Kielty (who platoon and have no way to get into a hitting rhythm, as Byrnes did last year when he was playing regularly), but Kotsay's batting stats are deterioratiing month-to-month.  Which was one of the points of the original diary.

Eric Byrnes - Offensive and defensive dynamo!

by FoolshGame22 on Jun 21, 2005 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kotsay's HR
stopped us from having to try to protect a one-run lead with 6 outs left and our top 3 closers unavailable.

The 'injury risk' thing amazes me. As you point out, almost every other one of our key players has suffered more due to injury than Kotsay.

And no, FG, Byrnes is not one of our key players, sorry.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 1:25 PM PDT reply actions  

so the cycle continues ehhh?
we make a trade get a player keep him for 2 years..his salary gets too high so we dump him..or we bring up a prospect..get 5 -6 years out of them..then trade him....lovely...maybe we should remove the player's names from the back of the jersey's....grrrrrrrrrrrrr
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Has anyone seen
anything to suggest that new ownership (Wolfe and Gap-boy) will do anything differently?

Lord knows they have the coin to start signing players to long-term deals.

Actually, the only A's players I think were keepers that walked in recent years are Tejada, Damon, and maybe Foulke (although I was upset about Giambi at the time, it now looks like sheer BB brilliance).

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

ignorant
sorry if i am being ignorant here, but can someone please tell me the connection to the A's with gap?

is the owner of gap a fan, friend, braintrust with wolfe?

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fisher
gap big guy Fisher is actually the majority owner of the A's (Wolff just the managing partner)

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 21, 2005 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Donald Fisher

who owns the majority of the A's is son of the Gap founder.

Rumor has it that Gap will be outfitting the team next season with Banana Republic for the management team.  Billy's said to be "very excited."

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who knows
about wolffy boy..time will tell..but BB did offer damon a K, Foulke also I believe..and the rumor is the K he offered giambi had the no trade clause excluded intentionally b/c BB knew the G man wouldn't go for that..but It would be nice to keep players that are actually gooood...because prospects are exactly that prospects...
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the team
needs to sign Zito to a long-term deal after next year.  

To get a Harden-Zito-Haren rotation locked up good return the A's to a playoff contender.  I just love the idea of a finesse junkball lefty like Zito in between those two right handed flamethrowers in a short playoff series.  Talk about keeping hitters off balance.

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed
Zito needs to stay...
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

To anyone who thinks
Byrnes is a great outfielder:

Next time you're at an A's game, spend a couple of innings just watching Byrnes in the field. If you watch the routes he takes to routine balls from the crack of the bat, you'll be amazed at how inept he is.

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 21, 2005 1:31 PM PDT reply actions  

100% agreed

His routes are pitiful, but I still think he should be getting more PT than Macha is giving him.  I don't by the line about keeping his next year's arbitration figure down...

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

does he get the job done most of the time?
Yes, he does.

Does Kotsay get the job done all of the time?  No, he's had errors and misreads as well.  

**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Comparing Kotsay and Byrnes
Is like comparing a Lear Jet to a Cessna.
A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mmm
I love happy meals though, and they rarely disappoint. I mean, how often do they forget to include the toy?

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 21, 2005 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd take the happy meal
unless you change that to a t-bone

by AllThingsOakland on Jun 21, 2005 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

so when
did kotsay misread a ball..because it should stand out in your mind because it NEVER happens...
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

well obviously it does stand out in my mind
But, Byrnes haters see only what they want to see.  I acknowledge that Byrnes isn't perfect, but you are blind if you think that Kotsay is.

But, go ahead and yell if it makes you feel better.  It's easier than a calm discussion.

**sigh**

by Just Me on Jun 21, 2005 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I Almost Don't Want to Say This ....
... because it's not typical, but Kotsay misplayed  Nick Johnson's flyball into a three-RBI double in the third game in Washington. And Vinny Castilla followed with a double to knock in Johnson. Thanks to Carlos Baerga's error at the end of the game, the A's fell just short to lose 3-4.

Sadly, I was there.

Kotsay must not have thought the ball was going to carry like it did because he ended up chasing it into the alley like a little leaguer, no angle.

I mentioned to my wife how unusual that was because Kotsay is one of the best outfielders in the game.

We all make mistakes.

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

oh my gosh
YOU KOTSAY-BASHER!  ;)

I wonder if that was the game where he later told the writers to write that he "sucked."  Which I completely disagreed with. Kotsay's not perfect, but he certainly doesn't ever suck.

by Poppy on Jun 21, 2005 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stop drinking the kool-aid
maybe you weren't responding to me, but i wasn't yelling..lol and I don't hate on Byrnes...Kotsay is an elite outfielder..and that is priceless....
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Most of the time"?

"Most" is a bit subjective.  After all it could be anywhere between 51 and 99 percent right?

The bottom line is he is a below average outfielder, while by anyone's accounts, Kotsy is well above average.  Its not just EB's routes, but he doesn't seem to get good reads on balls and his "jump" is often bad.  Hate to say it, but if he weren't faster, he'd be just like T-Long!

(BTW: Doesn't T-long just totally deserve KC?)

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bochte
Great point about the ownership.  Kotsay is going to be a real litmus test of the new ownership's commitment to winning.  Wolff's early comments suggested that while they don't plan on changing payroll significantly, they might take a different approach to retaining key talent than they had in the past.  We shall see.
A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 1:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Do You Not Believe In Your Tag Line?
Why would spending a lot of money on one player show the onwership's commitment to winning?

If Billy believes Kotsay isn't a solid risk for the length of his contract, the size of the payroll doesn't matter. If he can parlay Kotsay into a couple of great players that will help us during our championship run in 2007, shouldn't he do that?

If the Yankees are willing to overpay for Mark Kotsay, I don't see how the A's don't do it.

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question is

Do the Yankmees have anything to overpay WITH?  

Also, I don't know if I can wait until 2007, I want the A's to be in the playoffs again by 2006, at the LATEST!

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eck
who can the yankees offer that will be a lock in helping the A's...eric duncan? another prospect? WE have prospects...we need to keep the good MLB players we have, like kots...if his back is soo bad..betetr for us...give him a 3 or 4 yr incentive laced K that includes games palyed and a buy out clause in case he blows out his back...
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

In theory I agree with you

problem is, that the Yankees can afford to give Kotsay guaranteed money, so I am sure he'd go there rather than take an incentive laden contract in Oak-town.  

This is the big problem with the economics of the game now.  Moneyball works when the A's are spending $50M and the Yankmees are spending $120M, but when the spread is $60M to $220M?  That's just obscene.  

BTW: I heard the Yankees are going to be able to raise payroll at least another $50M/year after they get this new stadium built!

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

And
They're giving the A's a big fat middle finger, because the way the deal is structured, they have to give much, much less money to revenue sharing.
A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good Point

But it is still nice to see those clowns in 3rd place, loosing to the D-rays at home (a few weeks after the A's swept Drays in the Coliseum).  

I wonder if the Yankmees can win with A-Fraud?  Maybe there is a new curse, the curse of A-Fraud!

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

A-Rod = The Cooler
According to MLB Players, A-Rod is known as "The Cooler".  

If you've never seen "The Cooler" w/ Alec Baldwin, then you probably have no idea what I'm talking about...believe me, it's funny.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jun 21, 2005 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

great flick "the cooler"...
william macy = a-rod...too funny
The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-III", "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in"- Watson, mutterin' back to "the sac"

by bigelephant on Jun 21, 2005 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

damn yankees!!
lol
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd kind of like that pitcher, Wang
Robinson Cano seems like a version of Mark Ellis

by Eck on Jun 21, 2005 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not saying that
The A's certainly shouldn't overpay to keep him, nor should they turn down a foolish, win-now trade offer if one presents itself.  I just think Kotsay is the kind of player they can afford to keep, if they can do it for $7M a year, unlike Mulder/Hudson/Tejada/Giambi, who command numbers like $12M on the open market.

I do think that keeping mid-range players, rather than letting each and every FA walk "just because", would be a good signal to the fan base.  Don't go out and spend on FAs--just try to do a better job of keeping your own.  That amounts to a modest amount of extra payroll now and then, rather than backing up the Brinks truck.

A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

If its a choice between Z and Kotsay

as much as I love him, I've got to go with Zito.

I mean can you imagine a playoff rotation of Harden, zito, then Haren?

I just love the idea of a finesse junkball lefty like Zito in between those two right handed flamethrowers in a short playoff series.  

One thing that worries me is Z's "flake" reputation. I read someone compare him to flaky LH's like Atlee Hammaker (god forbid!).  I mean with all this guitar playing, photo-taking, bong ripping, Alyssa Milano gripping...  I think Zito needs to develop some Randy Johnson type intensity!  Some of his quotes are a little too Zen sounding for me...

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:47 PM PDT reply actions  

99% of these
Machiavellian/conspiracy theories are utterly bogus, based on people taking Moneyball too literally and to an extreme. Beane is running a baseball team, not a John Grisham novel.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 1:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Which conspiriacies

are you referring to, exactly?

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry, I mean the
"we're sitting Byrnes to manipulate his arbitration value" or "Durazo isn't really hurt..." kind of theories.
Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

In that case, I totally agree
What is your take on these Kotsy to the Spankees?

My line is this (also posted above):

If Yankee fans are expecting that Cash-man is going to deal for Kotsay, he must be overvalued.  That suggests that this would be a great time to deal him  Problem is, as has been reported on this site before,  the Yankmees don't have much in the way of prospects.  So Cash is going to have to get prospies from somewhere else if he wants to get Kotsay.  

On the whole, if it comes down to Kotsay and Zito (both contracts up after 2006) for the long term, I have to go with keeping Zito.  Left-handed Cy Young award winners are a lot harder to come by than above average defensive CFs with intangibles (leadership).  Keep in mind also that Z has never been on the DL.  Kotsay's fluky back could become a big problem in any long term deal.  Plus, a rotation of Harden, Zito, and Haren for the next 4-5 years could be the new Big Three.  I would much rather have three aces in the rotation, than two aces and Kotsay in CF (or on the DL with his back troubles).  

However, I don't think BB is going to deal him this year.  I bet he waits till next year.  If the a's are in contention by the deadline they'll keep him and let him walk after 2006.  If they are out of it, they'll deal him before 7-31-06.

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think
Beane almost NEVER publicly expresses a desire to sign someone to an extension, and that this speaks louder than the Yankees' interest (they're welcome to have interest, how flattering) or the fact that Byrnes can dive for what Kotsay has already caught.

Thomas/Kielty, Kotsay, Swisher in the '06 OF methinks.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

mewants
Swish 1b dj dh  and kielty, thomas and kots from left 2 right...just because of kotsay's hose..haven't seen thomas' arm live..how is it?
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point

But do you have an opinion on the Kotsay/Zito choice, given that both contracts expire after 2006?

In my mind they've got to keep Zito over Kotsay...

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd take
Kotsay over Zito. I think Harden and Haren will be legitimate #1-2 from 2006 on, so you're looking at a "luxury" #3 vs. a CFer/leader/consistent performer/cornerstone.

Easier to replace Zito, because he's inconsistent and all we need to find is a solid #3--Meyer might be that, or one can be found, easier than finding another Kotsay I think.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 21, 2005 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree...

It's just that Kotsay's back and low OBP worry me.  I love the defense though and I am sure that it makes a difference for the confidence of the arms.

Doesn't the prospect of R-L-R in a short series just have you drooling though?  I think Harden-Zito-Haren is more devastating in a short series than Mulder-Hudson-Zito, given that Harden and Haren get more K/9 than Mulder and Hudson.  Plus, they throw harder which is real nice in the October cold in Ny and Boston...

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well
at least they aren't as bad as the "We're tanking the team on purpose a la Major League so that we can move to Vegas" theories.

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 21, 2005 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree
it is the 1% that worries me.
"Chavvy's always been very intense about winning. People who think otherwise have no clue."--Barry Zito

by Athletics fan and runner on Jun 21, 2005 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

whatcha talkin
abt willis?
Ray Fosse thinks Pete Rose is a prick......

by oakwin2004 on Jun 21, 2005 1:51 PM PDT reply actions  

what would you take from the Yankees
for Kotsay?

From all reports, they have squat that we (1) like or (2) can afford.

And explain to me why Kotsay would sign a 1, 2 or 3yr  extension with the A's at below market rate (I don't see Beane offering more than that) when he can get more on the open market...

I don't see Kotsay re-signing unless we make a miracle run to the playoffs or pony up megabucks (unlikely).

by Apricot on Jun 21, 2005 3:31 PM PDT reply actions  

How about...
...the case for trading FoolshGame22 to an Angels blog?
"Ronnie Mac Land....I'm Lovin' It!"

by J Mack on Jun 21, 2005 3:44 PM PDT reply actions  

a la Ramon and T-Long ...
... any deal whereby Billy sends Byrnes away will be contingent on the other team's blog also taking FG22 ...

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

We can be traded?!!?!?!?
<horrified look>

I didn't know!

Ummm...hey, I love you guys. This site is the coolest. Yeah. Go A's!

I WANNA LIKE BASEBALL AGAIN!

by baseballgirl on Jun 21, 2005 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

you know
thats great and all that you love the site, and appreciated, really

but it would be silly for us not to entertain offers, you never know what might be dangled, and you ARE heading toward your arby years:)

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 21, 2005 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Kotsay has intangibles ...
... does Bobby Kielty have inpalegibles?

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 4:18 PM PDT reply actions  

I did, unfortunately!
I'm seeking third and fourth opinions, trying to find a doc to perform surgery on my funny bone.

If I'm out for the rest of the year, I promise in '06 I'll blog for free!

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, Byrnes does
He runs the risk of impaling himself every time he chases after a fly ball.
A Beane in the hand is worth $60M in payroll

by jeepers on Jun 21, 2005 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Monkeyballs

What are you smoking?

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

The new FieldTurf ...
... and when I get so loopy that I fall down, I no longer get turf toe or rip my ACL ...

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah, so maybe

you've been hanging around with Eric Byrnes after all?

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

rumor has it

he partakes in the occasional bong rip of FieldTurf.

At least it would explain his routes to flyballs and poor "jump" on line drives.

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

it would also explain ...
... the "Beane and Macha are out to get me" paranoia ...

by monkeyball on Jun 21, 2005 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice one 'balls!

he must only freebase the Field Turf on days when righties are pitching though!

by BruceBochte on Jun 21, 2005 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

8 Teams
Anyone know the 8 teams Kotsay can refuse a trade to?

by grover on Jun 21, 2005 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

not to sound like a broken record
but this article only confirms the obvious: why would Kotsay want to sign an extension in Oakland?  Are we guaranteed contenders? Are we offering megabucks? Are we offering years? Do we have some personal appeal?  Methinks the answer is Nos across the board.

The main question is what we can get for him.  The Yanks sound like a bad trade partner. Maybe the Cubs can pony up a bunch of prospects.

by Apricot on Jun 21, 2005 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

How about bonehead plays?
Everyone can remember at least two or three completely bonehead plays Eric Byrnes made, most of which determined the outcome of a game.  Let's ignore the playoff play that made him forever a part of the A's Playoff Three Stooges -- with Miguel and Jeremy.  I remember the short-hop single he turned into a multi-run double earlier this year which cost a game.  Where does that fit in the stats?

Byrnes is a luxury the A's cannot afford -- he'd be great on a team going nowhere, or as a supersub on a rich big market team.  But he is not an everyday player on a contender.  He lacks the discipline, baseball smarts, and humility.  I cringe everytime he swats a fly into his glove.

How could anyone watch Kotsay and Byrnes and rationally suggest that Eric Byrnes could ever fill Mark Kotsay's shoes in the outfield?

by dingerpower on Jun 21, 2005 10:43 PM PDT reply actions  

The game tonight and Kotsay's gem
of a play in the 5th demonstrate what an absurd diary that is. Can you imagine Bumblin Byrnesy's response to the ball hit by Border that Kosay ran down. ByrnesBrain would have taken such a circuitous route that he would likely have run to SS and then realized that the ball had hit near the wall.

Thanks, dingerpower, for your reference to the A's Playoff 3 Stooges: Miggy, Jeremy and BrynesBrain. BrynesBum's failure to touch home plate will be long remembered after every other memory of that woefully brainless BrynesBrain have dissipated...

'Course, I consider Tejada's failure to run home about the stupidest braincramp I have ever seen in the postseason. The O's can have Miggy--when the chips are down, he is strictly for the birds. ;-)

by reztips on Jun 21, 2005 11:24 PM PDT reply actions  

I was watching that play
And, because of all the conversation here, the first thing that I thought was, "Byrnes would not have caught that ball in a million tries."
"Chavvy's always been very intense about winning. People who think otherwise have no clue."--Barry Zito

by Athletics fan and runner on Jun 22, 2005 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

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