Gleeman on Blanton

by jmoney on Jun 1, 2005 1:05 AM PDT

Wow, that title is sort of homoerotic, isn't it? <wind whistles, tumbleweed rolls by>

Anyway, in Gleeman's latest Hardball Times article he talks about how Joe Blanton can't miss bats, and he comes up with a statistical comp that should terrify all of us: Nate Cornejo. Scroll towards the bottom for impending doom.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/disappearing-numbers

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well...

on the bright side...

the rotation will be more flexable, which means more room for improvement!

by SwishMix on Jun 1, 2005 2:09 AM PDT reply actions

He has two, maybe three starts left

If he doesn't turn the corner soon I think the patience is over and we'll see Yabu or simply have Harden replace Blanton in the rotation and leave both Saarloos and Etherton, although the latter has hardly been overwhelming.

There are plenty of example of good to very good pitchers who struggle in their rookie years. (Mulder, Glabine and Maddux are perfect examples) But most were younger than Blanton or not this bad. I bet there are very few 24 year olds with a 6 or higher ERA who ever become solid starters. H'es going to have to show us all very soon. And Macha's remark about not being prepared before the 1/3 of an inning start last week is not exactly a vote of confidence.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Jun 1, 2005 7:30 AM PDT reply actions

Not to Make Excuses, But ...

A pitcher who gives up a lot of hits needs a solid defense behind him and the 2005 A's have been anything but solid with the gloves.

Byrnes, Kielty, Hatteberg, Ginter, Scutaro and even this year's version of Chavez are not playing above average defense.

Since Joe Blanton walked so few people in the minors, his higher walk rate this year is disturbing. It seems his whole game is control.

My guess is he's trying to be "too fine" because he's seen the guys behind him aren't making the plays.

by Eck on Jun 1, 2005 8:10 AM PDT reply actions

Yes,

a pitcher who gives up a lot of hits needs a solid defense behind him. But a pitcher who gives up line drives like Blanton's been giving up needs a solid pitching screen in front of him.

Seriously...need sinker...heavy, heavy sinker...heavy...zzzzzz

Nico

by Nico on Jun 1, 2005 8:38 AM PDT reply actions

Has He Been Giving Up Mostly Line Drives?

I have only seen Blanton pitch a couple of times, and he wasn't getting knocked around.

I was at the Yankee game in NY where here gave up four runs and four hits in six innings, but he didn't really get shelled. Most of the hits were bloops and bleeders (except for Tino's home run -- but it was during his insane hot streak.) I came away from that game thinking he pitched well but had some bad luck.

It does appear Blanton is giving up one home run per game and his ground ball / flyball ratio is nearly even. A heavy sinker would certainly help.

by Eck on Jun 1, 2005 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

RUETER

I was watching Blanton throw his last start and I remember thinking, WOW he is turning into the right handed Kirk Rueter. Blanton just needs to work on his control and be confident in his curveball, which hasn't looked that bad lately. If his control issues correct themselves Joe could become a very dependable back of the rotation guy, 4th or 5th starter.

by JSCHWAN on Jun 1, 2005 8:39 AM PDT reply actions

thank goodness for haren

the only one that turned out.

by suggy on Jun 1, 2005 8:58 AM PDT reply actions

...so far.

"Look what we did!"

by ArakSOT on Jun 1, 2005 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Blanton has been shaking his hand

in some weird "I'm injured" way between pitches. And anytime a control pitcher throws a Bull Durham style wild pitch off the backstop, I get very worried. (Actually, I've never seen it happen while watching a game before.) It looks like something mechanical/injuryish is happening with him. I hope they can make adjustments soon. Until then, I might try to use him as the fifth starter for a couple of cycles until he can work it out.

by Apricot on Jun 1, 2005 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

Blanton could still be great.

No question that Blanton's time in the majors is very concerning. and thanks for the Gleeman article, which was interesting with all the stats.

I just hope we show some patience with Blanton--not necessarily all in the majors, Triple A may still be needed. Control is a big part of his game, but he seems to be able to get a low '90's fastball as well--I think I've seen some 93's.

I could see him having four or five fine pitches in a year, and good control, and being an important starter--with a Maddux like approach.

So I'm hoping for patience--wishing I felt better about Young as a pitching coach.

by alamedaman on Jun 1, 2005 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

To Eck, alamedaman,

I was behind the plate for Blanton's start at HOME vs. NY, and certainly on that night he was as bad as he was unlucky in the Bronx. So it has been a mix.

Agree, alamedaman, ultimately Blanton still has a chance to be an effective starter, because he has the most difficult quality to find: command. He could be similar to a Duke or a poor-man's Maddux--but Maddux gets tremendous movement, including sinking action as needed, and Duke does too in a subtler way--late-moving cutter, big-breaking curve.

I think Blanton's development will depend on getting better--and more useful--movement on his pitches. Add a little tighter break on his curve, and a little sinking action on his fastball, and he could turn around fast because he has the command and mentality that are hardest to teach.

That being said, the adjustments/enhancements I'm describing take months or years, not days or weeks, so patience is required. If anyone ever claims enhancements can occur within days, don't believe them. I won't make THAT mistake again.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 1, 2005 10:47 AM PDT reply actions

I hate to say it, but ...

I think you are wrong that mentality and control are the hardest to teach. They are necessary, but they are the final icing on the cake that is a good pitcher. The problem that I see with Blanton is that his stuff is just not good enough for the big leagues. Not hard enough, not deceiving enough. The reason pitchers like Rick Ankiel and Jimmy Haynes got so many chances is because they had the raw ability, the "stuff" to get the best hitters out. They never were able to harness the "mentality and control", and they finally flamed out after years of hope. I don't see Blanton getting that much time. I think Blanton's time is now, and his window of opportunity may be closing.

by iceplant on Jun 1, 2005 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

re

Come on now. It's way way too early to give up on Blanton. Rookie pitchers stink. Always have, always will. His stuff is fine, even good.

I do hope they change up his game plan though. His goals shouldn't be wins as much as no walks, 90% fastballs and changeups, and controlling the outer half. If he doesn't learn to use the straight stuff as weapons, he's never going to make it. It's all in the process this year, not the results.

by 31Boots on Jun 1, 2005 10:56 AM PDT reply actions

Quite frankly

I don't think Blanton will ever be a very good SP. I say it will be a no.5/long reliever type of pitcher.
I'm very impressed by Haren stuff though, and I think that with Harden and Zito it give us a very nice 1-2-3. If we can add a solid veteran no.4 starter in the offseason I think we'll be in great shape for 2006.
Harden
Zito
Haren
Veteran
Blanton/Meyer

And I do like Sarloos in the bullpen.

by Ktulu on Jun 1, 2005 11:53 AM PDT reply actions

The trouble with Blanton...

is that you can be a guy who gets hit a lot and still survive, provided you work quickly. Take a look at Reuter; he's a machine, even if he's getting his head pounded in. But if you're slow and hittable, you get the worst of both worlds -- lots of balls in play, lots of fielders not giving you what they should.

Yabu doesn't thrill me; I think he's getting by on smoke and mirrors, and he's had a lot of rockets hit at people. But at least he works quickly.

Frankly, if it were my team, I'd put Duke into the rotation. I think the back would hold up better without getting up and down in the bully. Right now, the A's have two potential starters in the pen - Yabu and Duke -- that may be better than their 3, 4 and 5 starters (with Harden out).

I think Blanton can eventually be effective, in a Cory Lidle kind of way. But right now, he's BP... and he's not getting helped by getting the ball every 5th day.

"Yucky Head Bad Guy!" - my 5-year-old daughter to Manny Ramirez. She got ice cream immediately afterward.

by DMtShooter on Jun 1, 2005 12:04 PM PDT reply actions

how time can change opin

geesh, back in feb/march people on this site were pencilin' 10-12 wins for blanton! now, he is a flame out. a person needs to roll with the waves of depressing despair and unbridled enthusiasm on this site.

so, while i was getting hammered for offering this opinion back in jan/feb, i'ii stick to it and repeat it re: blanton-location type of pitcher, will never over-power hitters, must use fastball to set up curve/slider as "out pitches", probably top out at 4 guy in the rotation, has a chance to be effective but the a's must be patient.

i'm sticking to my opin on "kentucky joe". blanton pitched very well in his first few starts but then got gun-shy due to lack of run production.

go joe go!!!

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 1, 2005 12:11 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, But Back in January and February ...

... Kendall was a .320 hitter, Chavez was on pace for 45 bombs and Zito was in line for another Cy Young Award.

And anyone who thought the A's could possibly be under .500 was taken out to AN's woodshed.

by Eck on Jun 1, 2005 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions

ha-ha!!!!

"....taken out to AN woodshed" those were the heady days! plus, thats how "f-uped" blogs ridiculing AN get created

The "Free Matt Watson from Sacramento-Redux" Committee is back in business...taking new memberships...crap!!!

by bigelephant on Jun 1, 2005 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Iwasn't particularly impressed with

Blanton's stuff when I first saw him last year. I don't know in what proportion his current troubles are due to rookiness - stress from lack of support - mechanical issue or injury - lack of major-league stuff. that, frankly, is the job of the staff, especially the pitching coach, to figure out. Only then will they be able to determine whether Blanton is a long term project, short term fixer upper, mechanical project, injury rehab, or simply someone who's not going to work out.

by OaklandSi on Jun 1, 2005 1:10 PM PDT reply actions

Prospects fail

It happens. If Blanton was on the Royals, we'd be ridiculing them for keeping another overrated stiff in the rotation. Sure it's early, but unless he finds four MPH and some movement for his fastball, the dude's not gonna cut it. And if he doesn't that's no knock on Beane or anyone else: some of these guys make, and some don't.

by Gitz on Jun 1, 2005 1:24 PM PDT reply actions

I think it's important to remember

that baseball is a game of adjustements, and many are drawing conclusions about what Blanton's arsenal looks like now.

I support the posts that say command, makeup and all, Blanton does not have the stuff to get major league now--as is.

But what time offers is not experience, but also the opportunity to add, subtract, and tweak pitches.

It may not be until he is 27 that his arsenal matches his ability to use a sufficient arsenal. But if that happens in 3 years he will not be "old"--not by the standard of a pitcher who does not rely on velocity.

I too will stand by what I said in February: I see him as a late bloomer who, like G. Heredia and Moyer, may be far more effective in his 30s than in his 20s.

This is not good news for impatient fans, but it is great news for the team smart enough to find him later.

Nico

by Nico on Jun 1, 2005 2:42 PM PDT reply actions