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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Realistic Perspective (positive)

OK. Take two deep breaths. Relax. Let's try to be rational, despite some frustrating conditions.

First things first; the A's are 14-17. Just two good series away from being .500 again.

We are 4 games out in the division. 5.5 out of the wild card. With 131 games to play.

Now I have to point out that while the Athletics start has been frustrating, the bottom line is we have won more games than we have deserved too so far, and that's because of our excellent starting pitching and bullpen. Instead of redundantly bashing bad performances, look at the positives.

Harden: ok, 2-2, but no-one can deny his rise to Ace-status. Locked up for the next World Series push. Listening on MLB.tv I hear other team's announcers salivating over him on every performance. Stud, period.

Blanton: 3.22 ERA. I don't know if anyone expected this much from him, or if we can expect a whole year of it. Yes, the strikeouts are low. WHIP is high. But he handles himself in a veteran manner in tough spots, and is a solid number three or four pitcher for the next five years for what is essentially peanuts. (Remember Benson got $7M a year, Lieber got $9M a year, etc. etc.)

Duchscherer: Second year in the bigs, and pitching great.
14 games, 18 IP, 16 K versus 3 BB, 1.45 ERA, .227 opponent's batting average. Solid in all respects.
He may not have overpowering stuff, but he certainly gets the job done. The cutter is key, and with Calero falling off the map, I expect him to become the primary set-up man. Again, cheap as dirt, relatively speaking.

Street: Good, especially considering the pressure and hype surrounding the 21 year old.
19 K's in 16 innings is great, 7 walks is up a little from his minor league trends. He doesn't give in, and throws that slider down and away with 3 balls, which has lead to more walks. However, opponents are only batting .237 off the kid with a 2.81 ERA. He seems like he can and will adjust to hitters, from all reports a very smart pitcher with testicular fortitude. Future looks bright.

Kotsay: Model of consistency. Numbers should only improve with a better performing lineup around him. Here's hoping he also gets locked up for the next World Series run. .302 avg, .350 OBP.

Zito: Not so consistent. But the slurve seems to be helping, and he has five or six pitches now, and is mixing them all in effectively. Note the last seven days;
1W, 0L, 14 IP, 6 K's versus 1 BB, .84 WHIP, .216 OBA, 3.14 ERA.
It would be foolish based on what we have all witnessed in the past two seasons to think Zito will rebound to Cy Young form, but this is a positive trend none the less.  He is the type of pitcher that thrives on confidence, so let's hope he gets on a roll; we can't expect 2002 Barry, but we can shoot for a pitcher better than his 2004 numbers.

______

The negatives of course, focus mainly on the offense. I would throw Cruz's inability to contribute and Calero's recent problems in too. Kiko needs to go on the DL, or throw the slider, period. As some St. Louis fans pointed out on their message board he is a `one-trick pony', and without that trick he may as well not pitch and recover, or have surgery. Anyways...

The offense is abysmal. I'm not trying to defend our hitters in any way.

For it to continue like this would be shocking and as Gammons pointed out, historically bad.

A.L. Ranks.

Dead last in OPS
3rd from bottom in Batting Average
3rd from bottom in Home Runs.
2nd from bottom of MLB in doubles!
2nd from bottom of MLB in runs, at just 108. Only Pittsburgh is worse.
3rd from bottom of MLB in average, and an anorexic .236 clip.
And as Blez pointed out, dead last in the big leagues in slugging at .339!

Look at those atrocious numbers. As much as we scream, kick, bang our heads on the wall, and get on each others nerves with our sarcastic game posts, while generally raging over our beloved A's batting habits, remember one thing...

We are 4 games out in the division. 5.5 out of the wild card. With 131 games to play.

Wow.

It hardly seems possible, but look at it like this; that means some things have to be going right. Especially considering that last time I checked, Offense was half of the game, and vital to winning this nine-inning fiascos we are so helplessly addicted to.

My point, in a very round-about fashion, (I apologize for that,) is that it is the potential of this team that is frustrating so many of us. Remember that 2005 is technically a rebuilding year, but we see a team that is struggling at or below .500 with no offense to speak of whatsoever. This team could win the division. No joke. If we had just an average offense, we would probably be leading the Angels right now.

-So I hope all of you realize Chavez won't end the season batting .200 with 16 HR's and 60 RBI's.
-Kendall will improve to at least a .280 in his first year against AL pitching.
-Crosby will come back. Can't be too bad, right? Doubt he could make this offense worse. Swisher too.
-Durazo has already started to wake up from his winter hibernation.

So maybe we will pull out a good season. I believe it will happen. We could make a run at the division / wild card in a rebuilding year, which is impressive in itself. If not, the future of the franchise is twice as bright as the chances for this year. Johnson, Barton, Suzuki, Putman, Robnett, our farm system is well stocked.

Dotel and Durazo can also add to the future years by bringing in new young talent for the next WS push through trades. (If this year fails completely, or through draft picks otherwise.)

Let's stay positive Athletics Nation. There are a lot worse franchises you could throw your time and devotion at. (insert at least half of MLB here) Let's refrain from snapping at each others necks at remember that baseball is a game of highs and lows, and if this is the A's season low batting wise, (it sure looks like it,) we should be in good shape!

I'd appreciate if negative comments found their way on to another diary, consider this the positivity thread!

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Your analysis is extemely fair,
and mucho excellent, IMO.

We can contend simply because no one is "great" in the AL West or wild card, and because Beane is a smart baseball man who loves to be told what he can't do.

The only thing I'd add is that the A's have to be more proactive about making the most of the hitters they have. This means beating out more bunts, putting runners in motion, and zone-hitting on more counts--including 0-0 and 3-0.

And nobody should see the lineup if they don't attempt to be fundamentally sound. This team, to put it mildly, can't afford to ignore the fundamentals. It's the big leagues, and the A's should have big league standards if they want to contend for anything.

That much the players owe the fans. And the fans owe the players patience, because you can be sure the players are even more disappointed than we are.

Nico

by Nico on May 8, 2005 4:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Well said bro...
great post.
Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on May 8, 2005 4:47 PM PDT reply actions  

i'd like to see us at least
set the record for most LOB in a month.  Dare to dream!

(Again... I'll be happy if we're at .500 at the end of June. That means about half our games are going to stink like today's.)

by Apricot on May 8, 2005 5:27 PM PDT reply actions  

He's given up three HRs over his last three apps.
... and his ERA is a Juan Cruz-like 8.68 !!

Give him back his slider !!

by HerbWashington on May 8, 2005 6:05 PM PDT reply actions  

I still think he's hurt
Herb, if Calero is hurt, don't you think time on DL will do him good instead of getting lit up like he has? Kiko is not the same pitcher that he was at the beginning of the year.

by Coach Cleats on May 8, 2005 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

absolutely ... Cruz and Calero are power righties
... that they're unable and afraid to use right now.

that only leaves Duke and the kid in the pen as trustworthy righties.

shut Calero down and get him healthy (TJ surgery or whatever), even if it means 2006

by HerbWashington on May 8, 2005 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

TJ surgery
basically means 2007
I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 9, 2005 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

they have to figure out a plan for Calero
.... he was hurt in 2003 as well for Cards.

I prefer not surgery, but they have to make him a known quantity and then make decisions based upon that knowledge.

If he's out for a season or two ... then at least you know !!

right now, no one knows from game to game ... is he hurt?, is he effective?, can he throw the sidearm slider? or not?  do I trust him out there?

by HerbWashington on May 9, 2005 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Since he's not under contract
through 2007 - TJ surgery would likely mean he was done with the A's.
I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 9, 2005 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I need to read things like that.
Alaska-A, Number-one-A's-fan-in-southern-southeast-Alaska.

by ak_A on May 8, 2005 9:30 PM PDT reply actions  

wow, great post Fireballer...
It's nice to see someone posting without the fatalist attitude many around here seem to be taking.

I'm glad to see you mention Kendall's move to the AL and subsequent adjustment period.  Most players have problems switching leagues at first.  New pitchers, new parks, etc.  He'll come around.  He's a .300 hitter in his career for a reason!!!

Same with Chavez, but I've alluded to that in a few otehr threads, so I'll let that be...

I wanna talk about the pitching...it's going to be awesome for the next many years to come.  This is what I see...

Harden will be the ace and fireballer.  Electric stuff and the anchor of the rotation.  I'm very excited to see this kid play over the next many years.

Haren will be a very very good No. 2.  He's got electric stuff, and when he gets command of it all, he'll put up Harden like numbers as well.  I've liked this kid since he made his debut, and I'm very excited to have him on our side for the next many years as well.

Blanton will be the rock we need in the middle of the rotation.  He will be very solid and very consistant.  Nothing will bother this kid, and he'll be another solid anchor for this rotation to rely on.  If he's our No. 3, thats just scary.

Meyer will come out of AAA ready to prove he belongs up here.  He's got good stuff as well, and will complete one of the scariest rotations the MLB has ever seen.

I'm very excited for this rotation, and it bodes very well for our future!  I would really like to see us make the playoffs this year for the simple fact I'd love to get the kids some playoff experience before much is expected of this team...

Thanks for the positive thread dude!

A's fan for life!!!

by ZeroIndulgence on May 9, 2005 1:29 AM PDT reply actions  

Shiny Happy People
I'm on the same frequency, Kenneth!
http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on May 9, 2005 4:37 AM PDT reply actions  

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