Current A with Best Career

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 10:24 AM PDT Comment 26 comments

In 25 years, after all the players in the A's organization have played out their careers, which one will we point to and say had the best career?

Will Chavez take the next step and finally put up the numbers his early projections indicated or hill he linger as a .270-.290 with 25-35 HR hitter (good, but not great)? Will it be Harden who probably has the highest upside of any player in the organization, but is still young and fragile? Will it be any of the current crop of young position players who will get plenty of playing time in the near future (Crosby/Swisher/Johson)? Or, will it be one of the prospects in the minors? Barton? Ethier? Putnam?

Here are my guesses with odds:

Harden - 40% (most upside, but a pitcher - will he be clemens or andy benes?)
Chavez - 15% (good career numbers to date, but will he take the next step?)
Street - 15% (good slider, but will need to learn another pitch to fool hitters for years)
Suzuki - 10% (maybe a shock, but figure he's a .300-.320 10-15 hr hitter for a decade as a catcher)
Herrera - 10% (5 tools, but who knows)
Barton - 5% (hot bat, but small guy who might not do much against advanced pitching)
All Others - 5%

So, who's your pick and why?

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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PS

If they were still on the team, my top 3 would be:

Tejada
Mulder
Hudson

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think "the field"

should be much higher. I also think you're seriously underappreciating Chavvy - even if you don't believe he'll ever get any better, he's already got a huge head start.

I'll say
Chavvy 25%
Harden 20%
Street 7%
Barton 4%
Suzuki 2%
Herrera 2%
The Field 40%

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on May 31, 2005 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Possible Analysis

I'm sure someone has already done this, but I'd love to see an analysis of how HOF players were regarded in the minors and early career. I'm not entirely sure you can do much because we've only had a draft for about 40 years and before that scouting was pretty much worthless. But, it would be interesting to see if truly great players were all great prospects or some "came out of nowhere". I can't really think of any current players now that I didn't know about as minor leaguers (at least for the last 15 years).

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Current Great

Meant to say I can't think of any current GREAT players that weren't superprospects.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Piazza?

Wasn't he some 40th-round draft pick? He seemed to pan out decently :)

by Trocmagic on May 31, 2005 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good One

He was a 62nd round draft pick. He did put up awesome numbers in the minors in 1991 and 1992, but before that didn't really do much. In 1993, he had a .931 OPS with 35 HR's as a rookie. I remember watching his first game in '92 and he went like 5-5.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis

none of these guys was highly regarded. I'm sure there are many, many more.

by iceplant on May 31, 2005 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Willis

Maybe Willis since he was traded as a "throw-in", but both Hudson and Harden were very highly ranked prospects in the minors. Not before the draft, but certainly within a year after they were drafted, they were big time prospects.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was only talking about when drafted ...

weren't both Hudson and Harden drafted around the 16th round?

by iceplant on May 31, 2005 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hudson was a 6th round pick

and harden was a 17th round pick

by kat on May 31, 2005 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols

I believe, was never considered an uber prospect.

Neither was Huddy.

But every study I've seen (not of HOF players, but of current players) points to the top prospect lists being fairly accurate and accounting for the great majority of the borderline star or better players (that and a ton of young pitchers who succumed to injury).

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on May 31, 2005 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols

Pujols was certainly an uberprospect by the end of his first minor league season. I remember Gammons promoting him in Spring Training of 2001 as the next Ted Williams. He ended up making the ML team that year and putting up .329/.403/.610 his rookie year.

Maybe I should have been more specific about what I was looking for. I was thinking someone who in the minors or early in the ML career put up average numbers and wasn't heralded much, but then "caught fire" in the majors and became a stud. Anyone think of one?

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James

As far as pitchers go, Bill James says that basically no good/great pitchers had early careers in which they struck out batters at a rate below the league average. That's not to say that all good/great pitchers were strikeout machines, but just that as young pitchers in the first seasons, they would have K/9 around 4 or 5 (in today's league context).

This is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Joe Blanton. He may be a control type pitcher, but he may have a rough go if he can't at least miss some bats. Haren, on the other hand...

Fearing Mecir since 2000.

by salb918 on May 31, 2005 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can think of an exception

How about Jamie Moyer? A crappy prospect, then a crappy pitcher until about 30. I think he'll be throwing no-hitters every other game by the time he's 50 ... unless they realize he's been using a whiffle ball for the last decade.

by iceplant on May 31, 2005 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I call for Congressional Hearings!

Next thing you know, all the innocent 15-year-old kids out there will be using this so-called "whiffle ball" (street names: "whiff," "Dubya," "slots," "the big plastic swerve," "white lightning," "mama's little slider," "schwing," "Uncle Whiffy," "whiffin' fumes").

by monkeyball on May 31, 2005 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More subculture drug lingo

Whiffle ball abusers are known variously as "whiffleheads," "Uncle Whiffy's nephews," "schwingers," "slotheads," "whiffaholics," or "Rob Deer."

To abuse a whiffle ball is to "sit on Uncle Whiffy's lap," or "go for a ride in the whiffmobile," or "ride the white plastic rollercoaster," or "eat wind."

Abusing whiffle balls can lead to abnormal stress and acting out, known as "whiffle rage," or "swinging the big yellow plastic bat."

by monkeyball on May 31, 2005 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The single biggest indicator of HOFness...

is not when they were drafted, but how little time they spent on the minor leagues.

HOFers rarely need years of seasoning. They are above replacement level at an early age, and manage to stay in the lineup even if they struggle.

They then ascend to All-Star Level and beyond, and maintain that level for an extended period of time. Many more Mike Schmidt types (.198 in his rookie year, played anyway) than Wade Boggs (years in the minors).

So by that criteria, the best HOF candidate on the A's would be... Harden, then Street, and then No One On The Current Roster.

(I love Chavvy, but even if this year turns around, he's come up small in too many playoffs, doesn't hit lefties, and gets hurt too often. He needs about 4 or 5 monster years by the traditional numbers, and he really hasn't had one yet.)

"Yucky Head Bad Guy!" - my 5-year-old daughter to Manny Ramirez. She got ice cream immediately afterward.

by DMtShooter on May 31, 2005 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

revised - w/ Crosby

Chavvy 23%
Harden 18%
Crosby 7%
Street 6%
Barton 4%
Suzuki 2%
Herrera 2%
The Field 38%

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on May 31, 2005 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Melvin Mora

That's about the best I can do. Mark Beurhle comes to mind too-- I believe he's been a much better big leaguer than he ever was as a prospect. I guess these guys aren't truly "great" as you say. I guess among GREAT players you could say Randy Johnson. His size and velocity got him noticed long before he was actually an effective pitcher, but he still had to change organizations before he became a hall of famer.

by David Owen on May 31, 2005 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Um, Albert Pujols.

13th round pick in 1999, gets to the majors and dominates in 2001 at age 21, will hit HR #200 this year in his 5th year in MLB, already has over 850 hits before his 26th birthday. For the OPS heads, he's over 1.000 for his career.

Assuming he's really the age he's supposed to be and stays healthy, you're looking at someone who should finish with well over 600 HRs.

"Yucky Head Bad Guy!" - my 5-year-old daughter to Manny Ramirez. She got ice cream immediately afterward.

by DMtShooter on May 31, 2005 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crosby

Not much love for Cros here.

So, I guess I'll trot out my tired refrain: I think Crosby will have a longer career, with better counting stats across the board, than both Chavez and Tejada.

by monkeyball on May 31, 2005 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

slipped my mind, he's been gone for so long - I'll revise above.

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on May 31, 2005 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really want to be wrong about Crosby...

but he swings at misses at so much stuff, he reminds of Jose Hernandez.

And that's not a good thing to be reminded of.

He's got to cut his K's in half, without losing his power, to be a truly great player. The odds of that happening are not great.

"Yucky Head Bad Guy!" - my 5-year-old daughter to Manny Ramirez. She got ice cream immediately afterward.

by DMtShooter on May 31, 2005 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cros doesn't project

as someone who is likely to hit for a high average. He projects more as the .270/.360/.500-.550 type, aka Cal Ripken Jr. in a more power laden era. Mind you, this is an optimistic projection. I'm saying that IF Cros totally works out as hoped, these are the numbers we're looking for.

The next time I slap a guy's ass, can we all just assume it's because I wish I was a baseball player?

by devo on May 31, 2005 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crosby

I think Crosby is fun to watch and should be above average for his career, but as he ages, he'll move to 3rd and his numbers won't look that good. He'll be a 3rd basemen by his 30th birthday.

I'm surprised nobody said Zito. I guess everyone agrees he's Jamie Moyer now.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on May 31, 2005 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs