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Not a Rebuilding Year, but "Learning Year"

Okay so this is the Situation.  This season is all but over although Billy Beane & Co. won't say it, we know it, the more we lose the better chance we have of drafting that non-Boris starting pitcher|hitter.

Rich Harden, Danny Haren, and Joe Blanton will be returning next year with another year experience of starting pitching.  We already know Haren and Blanton are good, just really not outstanding 'Big 3' material.  Rich Harden is possibly the only one who could be like one of the Big 3.

As for Chavez, Crosby, Ellis, Ginter, Scutaro, Swisher, Kotsay, Kielty, Thomas, and Melhuse, they will also have another year under their belt of learning.

Dan Johnson will be here next year starting.

Durazo, Hatteberg, Kendall, Dotel, Byrnes, and possibly Zito will be shopped at the trading deadline, and at the seasons end.  Of course everyone has a chance of being traded, these people have the highest probability.

Which leaves Calero, Cruz, Rincon, Bradford, Duke,  and Street to gain yet another year experience, and for Dan Meyer to contend with Saarloos to prove that he can be a #5 starter, then possibly Meyer to become 'big 3' material, or just 'good.'

We really got cheated out of the Hudson and Mulder deal only because we got some 'damaged goods' in return which should be better next year.

We know we can score 800+ runs next season, which leaves us with... can our pitching only allow 700- runs under to keep us within contention [90+ wins?]

Probably not for next year, but 2007 will be our best year out of 2005, 2006, 2007.

So basically, this year has told us that we don't have the pitching to contend for next year, unless Meyer can become dominant.

Thoughts, comments?  They are welcome.

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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I don't think we know enough
From what we have seen. We have an idea though. And i think you are semi right idea. I think It's clear that Haren has the talent to perform at a big three level, it's about consistensy and learning. Hopefully a year under his belt will help him get through that.

Blanton does not have that potential. But he has also shown that even though he doesn't have over powering stuff (he does have all at least average pitches though), his persistence and bulldogish style will help him a lot, and i think Blanton can be a solid fourth starter. He will also have a year on his belt. Basically i think you are right with the rest except abotu Dan Meyer. He also has a chance to be on big three level, right now is not the time to judge that since he was pitching with an exhausted shoulder the whole time.

Also, IMO your conclusion is a little off. I don't think it would take Dan Meyer to be dominant for the starting pitching to do well, i think just overall improvements by Haren, Blanton and Harden would be sufficient.

California here I come, right back where I started from, Californiaaaaa, Californiaaaaa, here I coooooome (June 24th). (OC, i was inspired)

by ohad on May 29, 2005 9:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Harden, Haren, Blanton
Theoretically going by the 2004 season, if we have a team ERA of 4.17 and score around 800 runs, we can win 90 games.  So lets say we score around the same amount of runs as the 2004 season for next season, we would need a team ERA of better than 4.17 to make the playoffs.

The only pitchers right now with an ERA of better than 4.17

Player - Speculated fragment of innings pitched compared to the total team

J. Duchscherer - 2/25
Huston Street - 1/25
Rich Harden - 3/25
Octavio Dotel - 1/25
R. Rincon - 1/25
Keiichi Yabu - 2/25

Total amount = 10/25

Pitchers not pitching an ERA of better than 4.17

Danny Haren - 3/25
Joe Blanton - 3/25
Barry Zito - 3/25
Kirk Saarloos - 2/25
Juan Cruz - 1/25
Kiko Calero 1/25
Other 2/25

Total amount = 15/25

So Theoretically if Blanton and Haren can have an ERA of better than 4.17 for next year, we have a high likely-hood of making the playoffs.  Cruz, and Calero should also do much better when they are healthy.  But if the following, especially Haren, and Blanton don't pitch an ERA of better than 4.17, others will need to pick up the slack.

And I think one of the biggest possible improvement we can have is Dan Meyer pitching a 3-4 ERA to replace either Zito's or Saarloos's production.  Because no one really knows how good Dan Meyer will be.

by Instant Replay Umpire on May 29, 2005 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I also wouldn't write off
Haren has "Not big three" material.  He manages to get a lot of Ks and has pitched well lately.
"Put a Milo on him."
-Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on May 29, 2005 9:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for not being clear
When I say 'Big 3' material

I'm talking about Freaks of Nature.

A Pitcher coming into MLB really young and just dominating within a short period of time.

I'm sure Dan Haren is good, but he's not a Freak to me.  He will be turning 25 next year, and I have a hard time seeing Dan Haren having an ERA of under 4 in the American League.  By all means, Dan Haren is a good pitcher, but not an Ace by any means right now.

He would totally have to evolve and learn a new dominant pitch to even come close to 'ACE' status.  He's not even close to book worthy yet [Aces], but of course he can prove me totally wrong, like many players often do.

by Instant Replay Umpire on May 29, 2005 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

totally concur
I think Haren's the kind of pitcher that you are forced to just listen or read his stats, you conclude he's a "pretty good prospect," but if you have a chance to watch him you conclude he has "big 3 potential."

My boldest prediction right now would be that Haren can win 15 in 2006. On the other hand, I see Blanton struggling for a while--and it may be measured in years, not months.

Nico

by Nico on May 29, 2005 10:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

i dont think billy will trade kendal
cuz the pirates tried to do it for years and couldnt, plus billy needs a good game caller behind the plate for the young gunz

by Swish33 on May 29, 2005 11:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kendall might be able to be traded...
To the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They have a lot of extra money to spend for at least the next couple of seasons, and have Jason Phillips at the catcher spot  currently.

I don't think they would mind having Jason Kendall instead of Phillips catching once in a while.

And besides, Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane know each other, so it would make it 100 times easier to trade with one another than a regular GM.

by Instant Replay Umpire on May 29, 2005 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree with the comments here...
on Haren.  When we got him I was stoked.  He's going to be a very good pitcher for us.  #2 behind Harden in no time!

I also agree on ohad's point about Blanton.  He'll be a very solid, but not overpowering, middle of the rotation guy.  But if he's our #4 guy, that'd be a pretty darn good #4 guy.

I don't know about Meyer.  I haven't seen enough from him to make any real judgement.  I'm hoping he can live up to what he was supposed to be when we got him...a very good pitcher.

A's fan for life!!!

by ZeroIndulgence on May 29, 2005 12:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

also concur, but would emphasize a few points:
Just one to begin with one.  We have to watch some more obviously, but we may have that REALLY BIG Time Closer in Street--both physically and mentally.  and we all know what that means.  We would have done so much better having Foulke for that 2nd year.

by alamedaman on May 29, 2005 4:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Buit, concerned with power? at 3, 4, & 5
The thing I don't see right now is that big bat or two in the middle of the line up--3, 4 and 5.  We may need a Barron Davis type move (a la the Warriors) to pull us up to the next level.  Right now I don't think we can count on anyone as a true 3,4 or 5 hitter in '06 or '07.  Though I imagine BB would say let's see how Crosby, DJ, and Swish evolve--and if they do, maybe Chavez is a 4 or 5 if he's better protected.  (But that takes a lot of hope).

by alamedaman on May 29, 2005 4:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I worry about offense
The thing is, a team needs to be firing pretty well on all cylinders to truly compete. Just look at this year so far

The rotation and bullpen were very good to start, but because of the offense the team wasn't winning a whole lot of games. Eventually, the pressure of trying to be perfect every time out got to the staff, and they crumbled. A team can withstand stretches where one part is carrying the other, but it has to even out.

I'm not sure our offense will be a whole lot better next year. The law of averages says it has to improve, but who's to say we won't have another rash of injuries to deal with? We don't have a lot of "impact" players--and Chavez has shown that he can't be the only one in the lineup and still produce. The only player we have right now at the ML level that might develop into that is Crosby, but he might be very injury prone.

The pitching rotation will definitely improve next year, especially Harden and Haren--and I really think BB is planning on extending Zito--but if we can't field an offense that can consistently score 4-5 runs, than it doesn't matter how much our pitching staff improves.

by Alien on May 29, 2005 5:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kendall traded??
Nobody would be so stupid. the only chance-- and it is a prayer-- would come in the last year of his deal when the Pirates pay a bigger chair.

he is the Ruben Sierra of this version of the collapsing A's franchise.

Beane can only afford to extend Zito-- at presumably 9-10 million a year assuming Zito ends up this season a little below 4.00 in ERA-- which is a fairly safe bet given how he's looked recently-- if he trades both Kotsay and Chavez. Attendance is in the process of plummeting. The payroll will have to be shaved. Not saying it won;t happen but i'd say there's at least an equal chance that Zito and one of the others are traded as opposed to both of them being moved.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on May 29, 2005 8:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I sure hope
that we don't trade away Suzuki when he's ready to come up, because we won't be able to trade away Kendall as planned.

Which is not to say that I don't think that Kendall can't return to his .300 form. I guess it's possible to bat .300+ for 9 years and then become a .200 hitter, but I don't buy it.

by Checkswing HR on May 29, 2005 9:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

we won't trade Suzuki...
unless one of our other young catchers (we have plenty) come into the bigs and really blow us away.  Suzuki wont be ready for the bigs until, earliest, 2007...when he can serve as backup to Kendall in the last year of his contract...then take over fulltime in 2008.  The A's won't let Kendall get in the way of one of their brightest prospects...assuming he matures into the catcher we all expect him to.
A's fan for life!!!

by ZeroIndulgence on May 29, 2005 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually suspected
(before the season, so it's not a reaction to his start) that Kendall would play 2 seasons with the A's and out. But some of that will be determined by whether or not the A's are "stuck" with him in 2007, in the event they do not want or need him.
Nico

by Nico on May 29, 2005 11:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Blanton is a project taking years
to develop then it wouldn't be a good idea to consider him as an front-end (#1-2-3) part of the starting rotation in 2006.

If at all possible I think it would be a good idea to extend Zito. As as been stated in another post he's young, durable, and still developing as a pitcher. It looks like he will become the "wily lefty vet" that can prove to be so valuable, and i would rather that the A's have him than someone else.

Harden and Haren should be very good for years to come. the jury's still out on Meyer.

I agree with Nico, I expected Kendall to de dealt before the 2007 season

by OaklandSi on May 30, 2005 6:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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