May Day! May Day! The Anatomy of a Collapse

Since the Texas Rangers (a legitimate contending team, btw, with a lot more young talent than the A's have) came to town, our heroes have gone 4-20.

4-20.

Very possibly the worst stretch of baseball any A's team has put together since the franchise came west nearly 40 years ago. Because unlike all the other bad A's teams, this was supposed to be a good team-- perhaps even a playoff team-- on the way to becoming a very good team next year and a solid winning team for years to come.

Now all of that is in question as it should be. The judgement of our GM; the wisdom or inspirational ability of our on-field staff; the leadership and character of our veterans; the true talent level of our youngsters. One can-- if you possess any dose of realism at all-- not be certain about any of the above and with it any cocksure attitude about the franchise's ability to rise above its financial predicament and defy the experts has to have gone right out the proverbial window.

For indeed the many moves of Billy Beane and the failure of his manager, coaches and especially players to validate those moves have threatened the franchise itself and its future in the Bay Area. Maybe they will find that lost character, right the ship, and play 500 ball the rest of this season. 70-75 wins-- a rebuilding year-- and perhaps the financial hits won't be so great. Maybe we can dream and say they have more talent and character than I give them credit for, and they'll get back close to .500 and give us all something to be excited about for next season.

But maybe this is who they are-- injuries or no injuries-- a collection of flawed parts destined for a 95-100 loss season. Or worse.

And if that's so, the revenue will fall right through the floor. attendance will probably drop 15-20% this season-- down to 1.8 million or so-- but then really plummet next season as season ticket sales take a huge hit. And if we return to the pre 1999 attendance of 1.4-1.5 million, what do you think that means for payroll? Lew Wolff is not running a charity, IMHO.

It is a pipedream to think that Chavez, Kendall, Kotsay and Zito will all be back-- not when they could be making close to 40 million between them. 40 million might be the payroll next year, in which case at least two of the above must leave. And it's hard to imagine anyone taking kendall off our hands. And as some have said in response to my first floating these trade possiblities, watch the fan base disappear then. True enough, but it's fast on the way of invisibility anyway.

So let's continue calling spades spades and look at how it all happened.

Since the Texas series began:

Mark Kotsay-- OBP  307; SA  323.  OPS of 630. We can talk all we want abouit his defense, and his attitude. But ultimately a leadoff hitter is paid to get on base and provide a spark to an offense, particularly one as moribund as this one. he has failed on both counts. Talk of an extension for him seems way premature;

Jason Kendall-- OBP  300; SA 284. OPS of 584. Not only Billy Beane is capable of having an OBP higher than one's slugging average. throw in the abysmal play behind the plate (throwing out runners-- horrible; blocking pitches-- horrible; handling a young staff-- fairly horrible) and it is clear that as of this juncture this is the most overpaid player in the sport. Except for maybe the next person on this list. This is much more than an adjustment to a different league. It looks more like a guy who's taken his last punch, and now we're saddled with the contract-- a contract that may mark the symbolic end of the Moneyball era. And I think the Beaniacs should take a cold hard look at what Ramon Hernandez is doing both at and behind the plate (.308 as of today) as he leads a young staff to stardom down the coast and wonder just what Beane was thinking. He trades away one of the cogs of this machine for a nice little CFer (and don't give me he had to do it because of the Long deal, because who made the Long deal) He has a couple of nice white boys playing CF and catcher-- and his team is going into the dumper.;

Eric Chavez-- he's hitting now, ain't he?? yes, but for the 24 games it was:  OBP 265; SA  323  OPS of 588. His OPS in the season's first 25 games was 617. And the defense has been-- in a word-- brutal by his standards. The exact opposite of everything you want your franchise player to be. the symbol of this laid back, lifeless, underachieving bunch of failures;

Eurebiel Durazo-- had the big year, got the big coin and....  OBP  282; SA  375  OPS  of 657. Has hurt his trade value, which unfortunately is all the value he has to the team now. Wouldn;t we all like Jeremy Bonderman back now??;

Scott Hatteberg-- "pickin his nose Machine". the glove has turned iron; the bat is barely hanging on, though at least he improved over the first month. OBP 389; SA 407  OPS  796. But is he really your ideal cleanup hitter?

Eric Byrnes-- nothing much more to say about this whirling dervish, except I wish we got more whirl and less dervish.  OPB 370; SA 443  OPS 813
After a terrible start, he has hit well the last month;

Bobby Kielty-- a bad stretch the last week, but still: OBP  440  SA  457  OPS 897  The one standout player in this horrendous stretch;

Mark Ellis-- well, maybe another one:  OBP 377  SA  389  OPS  766

Keith Ginter-- what was Billy thinking? I know, insurance for Ellis, but wow.  OBP  250  SA 260  OPS  510

Marco Scutaro-- can't ask a man to do more than he's capable of.  OBP  284  SA  365  OPS  649

I'll skip the rest except to say that Two Buck Chuck and Melhuse have not hit in limited PT, and while we must be a little patient for swisher coming off injury, a seasonal line of 272 OPB and 605 OPS is nothing to write home about.

The pitchers you know-- Zito has done well; Harden has been hurt; Haren better lately; Blanton an unmitigated disaster; Saarloss and etherton no better and perhaps a bit worse than you can expect from your #5 guys. Dotel got hurt after blowing 3 games; calero has been AWOL all month; Duke did well then got hurt; Ricky and Street have both been decent; yabu and Cruz less so. If the pen had stayed healthy and effective, the death spiral would have been much less harmful. If harden had stayed healthy and Kentucky Joe hadnt gone south, ditto. If anyone at the top of the lineup had placed the team on his back, ditto again.

But none of it happened. And maybe this is a year of bad play and bad luck. Or maybe this is what we've got-- a team without stars; relying on total good fortune and/or career years, no longer able to compete with the big boys.

But it won't be the same team in a month's time-- most of the high-priced players are headed elsewhere as soon as they are healthy and/or performing close to their norm. The kids will rule-- one can only hope that they start to overachieve for a change or else it's: "Kansas City, Kansas City here we come."