Hold up on signing Kotsay????

by Josh @ Athletics Nation on May 2, 2005 10:20 AM PDT

First off -- I think signing Kotsay to a long-term deal is a great idea. The guy provides incredible D, leadership and a consistent top-of-the-order bat. BUT . . . I contend that the signing should wait as long as possible.

Why? Because Kotsay is at the top of his game right now and his value is probably higher than it will ever be. Might something happen between now and, say the end of the 2006 season that could drop this value and make him cheaper to sign?

Just to chew on . . . baseball prospectus has Kotsay's attrition rate (the percent chance that a hitter's plate appearances or a pitcher's opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline) is at 1.9 % this year, but jumps to 6.0% in 2006 and 20.8% in 2007.

BUT -- in favor of signing -- BP shows that Kotsay will maintain his equivilant average and defensive levels through 2009.

So . . . should BB roll the dice and see if something could lessen Kotsay's current high value, or should he bite now just to nail him down?

I say wait and see . . . I can't imagine his value in 2006 being higher than it is now . . . although I hope in the end, he is resigned.

Poll

When Should Kotsay be Resigned?

Now -- Kotsay is the man

50 votes

Later -- Kotsay is the man, but lets hope his value decreases a bit

34 votes

Never -- Kotsay is overrated

2 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Our resigning him

would have to take place this season, contingent upon us getting a significant discount, since we'd be taking on fairly significant risk. If we wait until next year, we'd have to pay fairly close to market rate, which we aren't liable to do.

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 2, 2005 10:26 AM PDT reply actions

Value

I don't hope his value decreases! I hope it will go even higher, so sign him by the end of the season!

by Ktulu on May 2, 2005 10:27 AM PDT reply actions

Oh, and ...

if his value declines, we might not want to keep him.

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 2, 2005 10:28 AM PDT reply actions

You run the risk of being priced out...

Kotsay could prove to be one of the top 5 most valuable players in the AL. Defense and offense combined.

I know that we all know about how large a role his arm and catching ability play in our success.

So, what is the value of a top five player for the next 5 years?

I'd compare that to what he is scheduled to make and see about extending him for sure.

Kind of like being in the housing market right now. You test the sellers waters and see where they stand.

So, AN, what is his value over the next 5 years.

8-10-12 milayear.

by saint @ Athletics Nation on May 2, 2005 10:29 AM PDT reply actions

Player option?

I heard he has an option in his contract that allows him to opt out after each season and become a free agent. Is that true? Because he could certainly get a nice long term deal from some other club after this season, if he continues at his pace. Of course, I hope he stays.

"We tend to scoff at the beliefs of the ancients. But we can't scoff at them personally, to their faces, and this is what annoys me." Jack Handey

by davebenfremont on May 2, 2005 10:30 AM PDT reply actions

Boston?

Isn't Damon a free agent after this season. If there's an opening in centerfield in Boston, they could certainly outbid us if he does opt out.

"We tend to scoff at the beliefs of the ancients. But we can't scoff at them personally, to their faces, and this is what annoys me." Jack Handey

by davebenfremont on May 2, 2005 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions

yes it's true

by OaklandSi on May 2, 2005 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't forget the Yankees

Bernie Baseball is also about done. There's already talk that the Yanks will sign Damon to take his place. If Kotsay goes to either NY or Boston, everyone in the world will find out what we know and he becomes a superstar.

Let's keep him in Oakland.

by david32 on May 2, 2005 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I totally agree!!!

This new ownership group is seeing that real estate is booming in Oakland and that a new stadium will have more than enough people to make it a success.

That being stated they need to do what every other team that was gearing up for a new stadium did. Signed thier core long term so that the fanbase stayed then grew as the stadium opened.

The LT signing of Crosby, Harden and now perhaps Kotsay could be an indication that the new stadium is closer than we think.

by saint @ Athletics Nation on May 2, 2005 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

One thing to remember

What CF's do we have comming up in the system that will be ready by 2007?

"Timeline? Time is not made of Lines! Time is made of Circles! Thats why Clocks are Round!"

by Zonis on May 2, 2005 10:47 AM PDT reply actions

None that wouldn't be willing to play LF

for a year or two if that's what it took to get them to the show.

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 2, 2005 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

And none....

as good as Kotsay anyway.

by AlwaysSweatin on May 2, 2005 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions

New Owners

I know we shouldn't be frivolous with our money, but isn't spending some dough what the new owner was supposed to be about? If BB's got more money to play with, he should use it.

On the other hand, he's got to be careful. Didn't he say that in the 90s he and Alderson made some emotional decisions signing McGwire, Steinbach, etc., to long term contracts that ate up lots of salary?

Support the A's, buy at the Gap?

by timed exposure on May 2, 2005 11:13 AM PDT reply actions

for the friggin' prices my wife pays @

the gap, our family alone pays for 10 kotsays!

"Hey Ho Let's Go!"- The 2005 A's, kickin' some ass.

by bigelephant on May 2, 2005 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

Wow?!?!?

She spent 65 million this past year at the Gap?!?!?!?!?!?!?

If she's going to drop that kind of dime, anyway, she should step up to the higher quality fashion offered at BR, and maybe skip the third thousand pair of jeans ...

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 2, 2005 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

more important

when we say "long term deal" what exactly are we talking about?
2-3 years or 4-5 years?

by xbhaskarx on May 2, 2005 12:28 PM PDT reply actions

My guess

would be 3 years with a club or mutual option for a fourth

by OaklandSi on May 2, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I think that Oakland should wait.

While waiting can be costlier in the long run if Oakland wants to sign him to a longer deal, later. Not waiting has it's own costs attached. Kotsay has had back problems and is one of the reasons we acquired him on the cheap. He could be peaking right now. We do not know how the project OFers will play out.

On the flip side, of course, a deal with Kotsay to keep him in Oakland would come at a market discount - it has to. If he didn't insist on a 'no-trade clause' and the cheaper project OFers made Kotsay's displacement easier to swallow, Kotsay would become a serious trade piece with with a very reasonable contract for another GM to salivate over.

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on May 2, 2005 1:33 PM PDT reply actions

since his year with back problems

Kotsay has become a regular practitioner of Pilates, a system of exercises that increase strength and flexibility and decrease the likelihood of injury well into middle age. Now before you all go off on this, let me say that I have taken classes in Pilates, and (skeptic though I am) I was very impressed. If Kotsay has the $$ to take individual lessons (and he does throughout the offseason and intermittently through the season) he is probably not going to repeat his back problem any time soon.

by OaklandSi on May 2, 2005 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions

First, I hope that

Kotsay's value doesn't decline. Why would we resign a player on the decline? I don't think he will. He's still getting better!

However, we should wait at least until the end of this season. See what our team looks like, what the market loosk like, and decide if we can afford him. I think we will since Durazo and Hatteberg will probably be gone, replaced by the vastly cheaper and awesome DJ. Byrnes will probably be gone too, with the cheaper Thomas in his place (and possibly a AAA call up?). We should have enough money to sign him. I think we also have to deal with Zito's contract this offseason too, so we'll have some big contracts to decide on after we win the World Series ;)

by ZeroIndulgence on May 2, 2005 4:02 PM PDT reply actions

Money Available after this year...

It seems to me that we will not only lose the bigger contracts of Durazo, Byrnes and Hatteberg (who together made about 9.5 million this year), but we'll also probably shed Dotel's 4.75 million, Rincon's 1.9 million and probably also Bradford's 1.4 million. So, in total, taking into account the slight raises that Chavez, Harden and Crosby will get next year, it would seem to me that at least next year, if we kept the same budget as this year, we would have close to 17-18 million to "play around" with.

I would hope that that would be enough to make overtures about possibly resigning Kotsay AND Zito this coming off-season. Kotsay deserves a raise over his 6.5 million salary, and Zito would probably make more than his 6 million salary on the open market, but maybe not that much more than we would think. So, if we're optimistic, giving Zito and Kotsay similar extensions might not be completely out of the question.

Moreover, signing these two guys would be a great boon for this organization, and would really give us a fantastic core of solid players for the remainder of the decade. Sure, Zito is not the Cy Young caliber pitcher of a few years ago, but he is still a legitamate 1 starter who has not even reached his physical prime yet, and his absence in the rotation would be greatly missed (Everybody moving up one spot, with essentially 2 number five starters at the back end). Since we have Harden, Haren, Blanton and now Meyer (who has steadily getting his groove back in AAA) all locked up for the foreseeable future, signing Zito would give us a formidable, if not dominant, young rotation for many years to come, with each pitcher slated in the spot that matches their abilities and experience. In addition, I think Zito has really embraced the staff leader role, taking on responsibilites both on the mound and off and judging by the pitching staff's early success, he seems to be doing a good job of it.

Re-signing Kotsay speaks for itself. The guy is a gamer in all aspects of the game, and he is definately emerging as the leader of this team. So, in closing, let's lock both of these guys up through the decade, build our new stadium and inaguarte it with a few World Series titles!

by Taj Adib on May 2, 2005 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't know if it was...

...the persuasiveness of your post or the fact Zito had a fine outing last night (allegedly throwing his fastball as high as 90 - a boast by an AN member). But suddenly I, as an overly emotional, irrational, and opinionated fan, feel that I'd be willing to accept a flaky, streaky Zito for more years to come.

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on May 2, 2005 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions

yes to optimism, no to zito

if those money numbers are right, next year will be interesting. no question this is a rebuilding year. it's amazing this team as good as it is in an off year.

as far as zito is concerned:
i don't know how the success of the starting pitchers can be attributed to any leadership role zito has taken on. evidence?

zito has gotta be traded this offseason or next. signing him is not an option, either he'll be too expensive or we won't want him. the difference in trade value (example: the mulder and hudson deals) should be weighed against how much he can contribute to the 06 team vs the alternative at starting pitcher.

by xbhaskarx on May 2, 2005 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions