Is Byrnes another Bobby Higginson?

by bvank on May 13, 2005 2:58 PM PDT

I just saw a note that Higginson was place on the DL by the Tigers today. My first thought was "At least someone else will get a chance to play everyday in Detroit now. That guy has really been a disappointment." So then I looked up his career numbers. He has been a solid outfielder with roughly .270/.360/.455 15hr, 70r, 70rbi averages. Tiger fans enjoyed a very good stretch in years 3-5 or so, but all-in-all he has been an albatross for the last 5 seasons. Since his early success he has been one of those players that fans said "Wait 'till he gets back to 'normal'." Only, normal became a disappointment instead of more like the good old days.

I wonder if Eric Byrnes is on the same track, and if so should the A's deal him now - as Mychael Urban suggests - while he may be worth something? Or, should they hold onto him, get his very best years out of him (which could mean .270/.360/.460 22-25hr, 90r, 85rbi for two or three seasons) and then let him walk because he has regressed at such a rapid rate?

I think he could be a typical "Moneyball" guy where he out performs his contract in Oakland, becomes a free agent, earns the A's a compensation pick, signs a fat contract with a club desperately hoping that he continues to trend upwardly and then gets run out of his new town because his best years are already behind him. If this is the case, then he is going to get hot and have a good year and the A's will see a nice winning streak come their way - yeah!

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Poor comparison

Higginson started his descent due to injury. No one thinks Byrnes will ever get a long-term deal out of Beane.

And Higginson hasn't held a starting job in Detroit in years.

by grover on May 13, 2005 3:05 PM PDT reply actions

Wouldn't 450 ABs signify him as a starter?

For the last four years Higginson has been exactly the same guy, with around 450 ABs every year.

My point is that if Byrnes is on this same sort of track, then he has three above average years ahead of him before a string of merely good years. That said, a three year contract doesn't count as "long-term" to me.

by bvank on May 13, 2005 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

450 AB

Does not equate a starting job. Definite platoon situation and since he's a LH hitter he gets more ABs than his partner.

by grover on May 13, 2005 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

In 04, you're right

he was the primary platoon player

in '03 and '02 and was a full time starter who missed ~1 month due to injury.

Check the game logs

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 13, 2005 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions

higginson lite

A reasonable comparison, but I think we've already seen Byrnes' peak years, and they weren't nearly as good as Higginson's.
In his age 25-29 years, Higginson had an OPS of .982, .899, .835, .733 (injured), .915. A "typical" year for him in that time was something like .290/.370/.520 with 25 homers
Byrnes is already 29, and his typical line is more like .270/.330/.460, with a peak OPS of .814. That's OK for someone who came fairly cheap, but still .100 points of OPS shy of Higginson, and giving Byrnes a big contract and expecting him to improve at his age would be a huge mistake.

by andeux on May 13, 2005 3:21 PM PDT reply actions

Well said.

I think we will quickly see that Byrnes numbers last season were an aberration.

He won't come close to those again.

People get caught up in his "exciting" style of play, and allow this to cloud the truth.

He is a very poor defensive outfielder with occasional pop. 4th or 5th outfielder at best. If he's your starter, you've got problems.

VacaAsFan

by Vacafan on May 13, 2005 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

The problem with Higgy

isn't so much that he sucks -- it's that he sucks and is getting paid almost $12m this year. Think Jermaine Dye, only with a longer contract.

Higgy should be taken as a cautionary tale - he was good to great pretty much every year through arbitration and the age of 29. He became a free agent, got a huge raise, and has sucked ever since.

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 13, 2005 4:36 PM PDT reply actions

I don't mean this as "cruel,"

but my honest assessment of Byrnes is that he does not play the game intelligently enough to improve steadily. Playing like your hair's on fire will get you wild fluctuations of brilliance, while fundamentals and adjustments will keep you more consistent and steadily improving-- a la Scutaro, Ellis, Kotsay.

Nico

by Nico on May 13, 2005 6:04 PM PDT reply actions

byrnes

is white looks like a cali kinda guy says dude a lot smiles is a great interview except he is way to willing to talk about himself for ever and ever had about a year and a half of good major league play which ain't bad cause he's not reading this site like us wannabes. however, i don't get the attraction. he just ain't that good a player to garner as much attention as he does.

by oakath on May 13, 2005 6:22 PM PDT reply actions