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Patience Is, In Fact, A Virtue

We all know that Marco Scutaro worked hard this offseason to become the more patient, or "selective" if you will, hitter that Billy Beane and the A's front office covets.

From Susan Slusser's story:

Marco Scutaro, who dodged demotion a day earlier when Bobby Crosby went on the disabled list with a stress fracture of two ribs, started the rally by drawing his third walk in two days -- after walking only 16 times last year.

"Obviously, there was a lot of talk Marco would be sent down, but he's come out and kind of made a point," Byrnes said. "He's getting on base, he's making plays, he's been huge for us."

But is this becoming a bit more common with players on certain teams?  It's very early in the season and an insignificant sample size, but two players who are known for hacking have become key base-on-balls cogs in the first series of 2005.

Scutaro is the A's new patient hitter.  But there is also a new-found "patient" hitter playing for Billy Beane's protege Paul DePodesta in Los Angeles.  Jose Valentin, who had a grand total of 43 walks in 125 games in 2004 and a career high of 66 walks way back in 1996, has already walked five times in the first three games.  Valentin is a guy who averaged a BB once every 2.62 games prior to this season.

Do I really think that Jose Valentin will wind up with 270 walks or Scutaro with 162?  No.  But this tells me that a team's hitting philosophy can be taught to even the most stubborn free swinger (remember how much more patience Tejada seemed to have by the time he left? And now Chavez?).  Will Scutaro and Valentin's new selectivity last or will they revert to their old hacking ways?

Only a little patience will give us the answer.

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Patience
Agreed. Lets not go making any Scoot for MVP diaries.
Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 8, 2005 1:04 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

but can hitters develop a better eye
for determining balls and strikes?  

i believe they can't.  is that relevant?

by xbhaskarx on Apr 8, 2005 1:10 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's a good question
So, have Valentin and Scutaro just suddenly decided to lay off questionable pitches?

by Blez on Apr 8, 2005 1:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think maybe
They are thinking more during their at bats. They know it's really important. Scutaro knows it's extremely important in Oakland. So he is making more of a conscious effort.

Of course, since it's just three games, it could be that the pitcher just so happens to pitch balls against him.

Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 8, 2005 1:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's true...
it's a small sample size, but man, I gotta tell you, I don't think I'd ever seen Valentin have at-bats like he did last night.

It's like he's suddenly reborn.  But like I said, who knows if it will last?

by Blez on Apr 8, 2005 1:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depodesta
Could have an effect on this. Kenny Williams obvioulsy never emphasized this type of thing. He just wanted power from Valentin. I think we can expect less homers from Valetin since he will also now be making a conscious effort to be more selective, as well as Dodger Stadiums park effects.
Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 8, 2005 1:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hitters can develope a different general approach
human beings are bound more by habit than statistical history.

by kvn on Apr 8, 2005 1:39 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

habit is with one B
Unless you were making a joke.
Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 8, 2005 2:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that one was a type-o
but thank you for your rigorous attention to detail.

by kvn on Apr 8, 2005 2:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's amazing how competition...
...brings out the best in those people who decide not to curl up into the fetal position and fold from the card game of life.  Hunger can be such a great motivator to those who want a chance to eat.
How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb-thrower

by LowcountryJoe on Apr 8, 2005 1:18 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Prior to last season...
Baseball Prospectus had Scutaro pegged as the next Frank Menechino. So, I was a bit surprised to see such a low OBP from the guy. Could it be that Scoot has always been a bit of a patient hitter and had a down(way down) year last season? I'm not entirely convinced that he's learning something new.

by Sharon on Apr 8, 2005 1:23 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly!
At first I was going to write that Blez was being unfair by saying Scuatro was a "stubborn free swinger" because Scutaro didn't come up through the A's minor league teams and was never taught to be patient. Remember, last year was his first in the A's system -- and he was in the bigs all year.

But the reality is that Scutaro ACTUALLY WAS a patient hitter coming up.

At Buffalo (AAA) in 1999 he had 61 walks and 69 Ks.
At Buffalo in 2000 he had 61 walks and 53 Ks.
In 2001 he was 62BB:83K, not great but still not horrible.
Then the Met's screwed him up in 2002 and he was 30:72.
But in 2003, his ratio was 46:48, pretty darn good.

Looking at those stats, it appears Marco's track record is that he's been much more patient in the past and last year might be an abberation.

by Eck on Apr 8, 2005 2:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The pitchers have a lot to say....
...about this. Right now, my guess is that Valentin and Scutaro are getting a bit of a free ride because pitchers, remembering last year, don't feel like they have to throw Scutaro and Valentin strikes. Word will get around and pitchers will adjust. Then we'll see how serious Scutaro and Valentin are about this.

by jrbh on Apr 8, 2005 1:23 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you become too patient
and strike out looking?  That seems to be Hatteberg's problem right now.
Visit the beautiful Napa Valley, home of many Oakland A's fans.

by kkdaz on Apr 8, 2005 1:36 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree Blez
I think plate discipline can be something that is acquired.  Some people in baseball think that hitting is about swinging the bat...others value working the count and drawing walks
Can we get Astropitch to sell "Free Dan Johnson" T-Shirts?

by carp on Apr 8, 2005 1:41 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's what makes it so interesting to me
because Jason Grabowski said last season that he didn't think it could be taught either.

Although I was just looking up Scoot's minor league numbers and he was a bit more patient with Norfolk.  So perhaps Sharon was right.  Maybe he was more patient and just swung more last season for some reason.

Valentin on the other hand, has never been a patient guy at the plate.

by Blez on Apr 8, 2005 2:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this is a very interesting discussion to have
but like all discussions at this point, let's remember that we're looking at stats from just three games!

i tend to be in the beane camp, but it's possible scoot was swinging at everything in 04 because he thought this was his only chance to prove himself at the MLB level.  let's remember that there were rumors of ellis coming back throught last year...

by xbhaskarx on Apr 8, 2005 2:11 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know
that's why I have the caveat, but watching Valentin last night was amazing.  He was taking pitches that were very, very close to the zone.

It's like someone suddenly put a light bulb on over his head.

But as I said, who knows if it will continue?

by Blez on Apr 8, 2005 2:23 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

didn't mean to imply
that you were reading too much into it...

by xbhaskarx on Apr 8, 2005 2:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plate Discipline CAN be Improved
Look at Tejada and Chavez for proof. And most successful hitters get more patient as they get older.

It's a matter of what's taught and stressed in an organization. It's just that it's hard to teach it to guys who have been successful being more "aggressive."

Remember, these guys got drafted by major league teams by hitting, not walking. They were the best hitters from little league to high school to (for some) college. They think they're pretty good by the time they get into the system.

I'd argue that it's a lot easier to teach an undisciplined hitter to be patient than it is to teach a patient player to take better swings. The skills involved in hitting are pretty darn hard and I think much more determined by genetics than instruction. Obviously good coaches and hard work help then develop their potential, but great hitters are born not made.

by Eck on Apr 8, 2005 2:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adjustments
I would think you should always be making adjustments or "refining" your game, be it in the field, the batters box, or in your off season workouts.

Scoot is making the adjustments to refine his plate discipline.  Great, let's just hope BB et al are taking notes and "applying" this to their 2005 plans.

Now THIS is Billy Ball

by Masaryk on Apr 8, 2005 2:09 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exception to the rule?
The main reason I've been skeptical of Scutaro improving as a hitter is what xbhaskarx says above: there's a lot of evidence that players with poor pitch recognition/selection skills just aren't able to improve them at the major league level, especially at age 29. In today's chat with James Click at Baseball Prospectus, someone asked about Scutaro, and he made this same point.

On the other hand, as Sharon points out, Scutaro always had a decent walk rate in the minors - in fact, this was probably a big factor in Beane picking him up on waivers last year - so maybe he really does have this capability. One possible explanation was that his early, somewhat flukey, success last year - he hit .338 in april - reinforced some bad habits, but after struggling later - .224 in september/october - he has realized the necessity of going back to what got him noticed in the first place

by andeux on Apr 8, 2005 2:11 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BTW
Mulder has given up 4 runs (3 earned i think) after 3 innings. 7 hits! In his first at bat just now he lined out to left.
Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 8, 2005 2:18 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LaTroy Hawkins....
...just joined the first week Collapsing Closer Club. Gave up a two-out single to Spivey and a double to Overbay to allow the Brewers to tie the Cubs in the 9th.

Although it should be said that if Hollandsworth hadn't picked up, then dropped the ball down the left field line, Spivey might not have scored.

by jrbh on Apr 8, 2005 2:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jrbh: it should also be noted
that in Hawkins' case, he didn't "join" the club so much as he renewed his membership!
Nico

by Nico on Apr 8, 2005 3:04 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He just did it to spite me...
the pitchers on my fantasy team decided to tank this first week to put the fear of God in me.

by LD on Apr 8, 2005 3:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

improving plate discipline
shouldn't the obp throughout the league be going up and k's down, because obp is much more universally recognized as being important now?  it's not just a dodgers/a's/jays/bosox thing anymore.  

also, shouldn't hitters on teams that value patience and plate discipline be constantly and consistently improving their plate discipline if they have the ability to do so?  
for example, if beane got durazo because of X plate discipline, why wouldn't durazo try to get to X+1 if that's what the team wants out of him?

by xbhaskarx on Apr 8, 2005 2:56 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adding a teacher's perspective
to the discussion, kids are far more malleable (learn new things, adjust, adapt) than adults are (more "set in our ways," "think inside the box").

If you think of major leaguers as "adults" and lower level minor leaguers as "kids," then it stands to reason that plate discpline can be taught more to single-A players that to major leaguers--not as much a matter of whether it's "an innate skill" or "a learnable skill" but more because in some fundamental ways, "kids" are more teachable than "adults."

Interesting debate for sure, with no clear answer in sight.

Nico

by Nico on Apr 8, 2005 3:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good Points
OBP should be going up, if that's the case. I bet it will.

But you can only walk as much as the pitcher is throwing balls. A player's got a ceiling in how much he can walk ... and I'd argue Durazo is right at his. If he takes walks in 90 percent of his walkable at bats, he can't improve that much. Hard to get to X+1 if X is already close to 100 percent.

On a related note, Jim Palmer made an excellent point last night on the Orioles broadcast about the A's approach. He talked about the A's stressing "plate discipline" not walks.

He said how the system stresses looking in a particular hitting zone for pitches and not swinging if you don't get them. It's not about always taking the first pitch of an at bat, but looking for a pitch in a particular location.

He relayed a story about Swisher. In spring training, Swisher said Maddux kept getting him out with pitches that were low and away. Once Swisher realized he couldn't hit those pitches anyway, he stopped swinging at them. Didn't matter if they were balls or strikes.

by Eck on Apr 8, 2005 3:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What,...
...and say that pitchers wont begin to adapt to the trend as well?
How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb-thrower

by LowcountryJoe on Apr 8, 2005 6:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How about the opposite?
Look at a player like Vlad Guerrero coming into an organization like the Angels.  Now obviously, Vlad's never been a Bondsian patient hitter.  But last year, he only had 52 walks, while in 2002 he had 84 and in 2003 he had 63 while missing significant time.  We all know the Angels preach impatience at the plate.  Vlad's always been a free swinger, but that organization seemed to want to him swing more.
  Obviously Vlad is a stud, and he did have a monster year last year.  But his OBP last year on the Angels was .391; while it was .417 and .426 in the years prior when he was on Montreal.
"We tend to scoff at the beliefs of the ancients. But we can't scoff at them personally, to their faces, and this is what annoys me." Jack Handey

by davebenfremont on Apr 8, 2005 4:02 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Another example
Juan Encarnacion on the Marlins has been similarly chided for not walking. He has like four already this season. Then again, he has two grand slams as well and I dont think he worked on that.
We have, I fear, confused power with greatness.

by jrfelix on Apr 10, 2005 11:25 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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