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Where's the Power?

Oddly enough - over the last decade, power has proved a hinderance when it came to winning the World Series. The average WS Winning team had 5 guys with at least 15 homeruns, while the average Losing team had 5.5. At the high end, the difference is even more pronounced. The average winning team had .3 players with at least 35 homeruns, while the average Losing had 1.1. The team with the higher OBP only won 6/10 series also, so they doesn't seem to explain it.

We have 7-8 guys who are likely to hit at least 15 homeruns (assuming sufficient playing time) and one guy with the power to hit at least 35 ... if anything one might surmise that we have too much power to win the World Series.

Update [2005-4-8 14:20:8 by devo]:

What I find the most interesting is the dearth of upper end power among the winners -- the lack of guys with 35+ homeruns.

The point isn't that having homerun hitters hurts teams in the WS. It's that you don't need that "big RH power bat in the 4 hole". Having 5-6 guys with medium power actually seems preferable.

In the 9 full seasons included in this study, players have hit 35+ homeruns 189 times. That's an average of 21 times per season. Meaning, there were about .72 big boppers per team(keeping in mind that for part of this period there were only 28 teams). Over the same period, there were 18 World Series teams with 13 big boppers between them - or .72 per team. Meaning, having that big power bat does not make you any more or less likely to go to the World Series - though, once there, it may make it less likely that you win it.

World Series Winners and Losers by year w/ Homerun leaders:
2004
Boston Red Sox
Manny 43, Ortiz 41, Damon 20, 'Tek 18, Millar 18, Bellhorn 17
def
StL Cardinals
Pujols 46, Edmonds 42, Rolen 34, Sanders 22

2003
Fla Marlins
Lowell 32, Lee 31, Encarnacion 19, Gonzalez 18, Pudge 16
def
NY Yankees
Giambi 41, Soriano 38, Posada 30, Matsui 16, Mondesi 16, Williams 15

2002
ANAHEIM Angels
Glaus 30, Anderson 29, Salmon 22
def
SF Giants
Bonds 46, Kent 37, Sanders 23, Bell 20, Santiago 16, Aurilia 15

2001
Arizona D-Backs
Gonzalez 57, Sanders 33, Williams 16, Grace 15
def
NY Yankees
Martinez 34, Williams 26, Posada 22, Jeter 21, O'Neil 21, Justice 18, Soriano 18

2000
NY Yankees
Williams 30, Posada 28, O'Neil 18, Martinez 16, Jeter 15
def
NY Mets
Piazza 38, Alfonzo 25, Ventura 24, Zeile 22, Bell 18, Payton 17, Agbayani 15

1999
NY Yankees
Martinez 28, Williams 25, Jeter 24, O'Neil 19, Davis 19, Knoblauch 18, Brosius 17
def
Chipper 45, Jones 26, Jordan 23, Klesko 21, Boone 20, Williams 17

1998
NY Yankees
Martinez 28, Williams 26, 0'Neil 24, Strawberry 24, Brosius 19, Jeter 19, Knoblauch 17, Posada 17
def
SD Padres
Vaughn 50, Caminiti 29, Gwynn 16

1997
Florida Marlins
Alou 23, Sheffield 21, Johnson 19, Conine 17, Bonilla 17
def
Cleveland Indians
Thome 40, Justice 33, Williams 32, Ramirez 26, Alomar 21, Giles 17

1996
New York Yankees
Williams 29, Martinez 25, O'Neil 19
def
Atlanta Bravez
Klesko 34, Chipper 30, McGriff 28, Lopez 23, Grissom 23

1995
Atlanta Braves
McGriff 27, Justice 24, Klesko 23, Chipper 23
def
Cleveland Indians
Belle 50, Ramirez 31, Sorrento 25, Thome 25, Murray 21, Baerga 15

#Players w/ 45+ HR
Winners
1
Losers
5

#Players w/ 35-44 HR
Winners
2
Losers
6

#Players w/ 25-34 HR
Winners
14
Losers
16

#Players w/ 15-24
Winners
33
Losers
28

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