Today's Lineup - Predictions

by Colorado Fan on Apr 4, 2005 10:40 AM PDT

Some things to think about: Scott Hatteberg is hitting .211 (4-for-19) in his career against RHP Lopez. ... Left-handed batters hit .323 against LHP Zito this season. ... OF Byrnes is hitting .333 (4-for-12) in his career against RHP Lopez. Orioles - INF Mora is hitting just .158 (3-for-19) in his career against Zito. ... Lopez allowed three runs or less in all but one of his last 10 starts of the 2004 season. ... 2B Roberts is hitting just .105 (2-for-19) in his career against Zito.

Oakland:

Kotsay - CF
Kendall - C
Chavez - 3B
Durazo - DH
Byrnes - LF
Hatteberg - 1B
Crosby - SS
Swisher - RF
Ellis - 2B

Baltimore:

Roberts - 2B
Mora - 3B
Tejada - SS
Sosa - RF
Lopez - C
Palmeiro - DH
Gibbons - 1B
Bigbie - LF
Matos - CF

If the Orioles go with this lineup, it should be very interesting to see how we use our bullpen against them. Personally, I don't think Zito will go more than 5-6 innings because of his usual high pitch counts. I think we'll see Calero and/or Cruz vs. the middle of their lineup quite a bit (Mora, Tejada, Sosa, Lopez). Then, Rincon will need to play a big part when the latter end of lineup comes to the plate.

What changes would you make?

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Comments

Some other stuff to think about

None of those stats you gave above are statistically significant for the given reasons: 1)Average means practically nothing
2)Number of ABs are so small they are meaningless.

Sorry to be crude but I hate it when people use meaningless stats to form a lineup.

You A's lineup looks good though. We might see Hatty or Crosby batting 5th, or even Thomas in the lineup instead of Byrnes (although I hope not).

by superbariman on Apr 4, 2005 11:15 AM PDT reply actions

Number of AB's

Thats not that small when it's about matchups. With pitcher hitter matchups those AB's actually mean something.

Average does mean something. Unless these guys are hitting 190 with a 500 OBP then it means something. It means they can't make good contact and just generally suck against that pitcher.

Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 4, 2005 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes it is small

Let's look at Mora's numbers. According to espn he is a career .280 hitter. Let us assume that there is no "matchup advantage" for Zito against Mora. Then what is the probability that Mora would hit .280? This is a binomial situation. The probability is equal to: 19C3*(.280^3)*(1-.280)^16= .1109. In other words we would expect Mora to hit 3/19 against 1 out of 10 pitchers assuming all pitchers are exactly the same. In this case we cannot reject our assumption that there is no "matchup advantage". (For those with more statistical knowledge if you conduct a one sided population proportion test with a significance level of .05 we still fail to reject the null hypothesis).

I could do the same test for any of the hitters above, and almost all of them would fail to show significant evidence to reject that there is no "matchup advantage".

This is an example of meaningless statistics being used, and I'm fairly confident that Beane would never let Macha use this stuff. Only if you have a lot of at bats or a very abnormal average do mathcup numbers become significant.

by superbariman on Apr 4, 2005 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Plagerized

I blatantly plagerized those stats from Sportsline.com - However, if you think that managers don't make decisions on how someone hits vs. a particular pitcher you come off a little weak, and you're nutz.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Apr 4, 2005 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I still can't believe

That Opening Day is finally here!!! :-)

"The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." -Catfish Hunter

by kaweahkaweah on Apr 4, 2005 11:19 AM PDT reply actions

Zito 5-6

This is what i hate. Because of his usual high pitch counts? All of this because of last year. I expect Zito to go seven today. Have some faith in the guy. He had the worst year in his career (and it was still average)

Kielty, rejuvenated by his new genetically created St.Pats Day/Oktoberfest, shows us why Billy and Ohad are geniuses.

by ohad on Apr 4, 2005 11:28 AM PDT reply actions