No such thing as a great bullpen
I would argue that, in the current paradigm of the way team's organize their rosters, there is no such thing as a great bullpen. For the most part, pitchers pitch their way into the bullpen by not being good enough to start. So it's great that the A's improved their bullpen - relative to last year's - but that alone doesn't make up for the loss of starting pitching. Closers may be an exception to this rule, but a strong argument could be made that the "closer" position is way overvalued.
The A's bullpen was terrible last year - would a random sample of 7 ML relief pitchers have done better? Probably. But without Haren producing (which he is, and that's great) and getting more value from the Hudson deal than a mediocre Juan Cruz (who, by categorization as a middle-reliever, is actually a mediocre pitcher), I don't see how the A's will improve. ERA's for bullpens should be lower than for starters, but that is more a function of the game-environment in which they are pitching. (It would be intersting if the bullpen era had a multiplier that took into account inherited runners scored, how many outs when the bullpen came in the game, quality of batters faced, etc...)
So my point is that a "great" bullpen may be overrated, though it is crucial that the bullpen is not terrible.
On a separate but related note, what if there were no real "roles". What if all pitchers were just pitchers and pitched until they showed signs of tiring or the game was out of hand so a lesser pitcher comes in to save the superior pitchers arm? Maybe you'd pull Rich Harden after 2 innnings if he has a 6 run lead so you can use him again in two days? You'd simply rank by quality, and everyone would be situational.
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actually
That comment doesn't really mean anything...
by tblazrdude on Apr 13, 2005 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
But my point is
Street
Obviously not all the time.
What you're saying
Still, not that I don't love the kid, but something tells me that if he could start, we would have made him a starter. This organization above all others knows the relative value of an elite closer to an average starter. That's why Rich Harden isn't closing for us - in a lesser organization, like the Rockies, he might be a closer.
remember harden almost was closing for us!
that would really have sucked...
hehe
If anyone could benefit from the idea posted above of a rotating pitching staff, it would be the rockies. The challenges of pitching at coors field make the entire 5 man starting staff and a bullpen with set tasks ludicrously stupid. Their record shows that they have no idea what they are doing.
by BaseballTao on Apr 13, 2005 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Nonsense
It makes no sense at all to say there is such a thing as a terrible bullpen but no such thing as a great one. If you can measure the quality of a bullpen then some are going to come out at the high end of the range; they are the ones you call great.
by matthias on Apr 13, 2005 12:22 PM PDT reply actions
C'mon now
And of course there are good bullpens. Anaheim won the World Series with one. Take Isringhausen. He couldnt cut it as a starter, same with Gagne. They throw so much gas, that after the 4th inning, they are worn out. Your starting pitcher is PAID to start and give you at least 6 quality innings. Thats why they get the big money. You're telling me that if Harden has a 6-0 lead and a no hitter going into the 6th, that you would pull him?? That makes absolutley no sense at all.
missing a big point...
You'll find a lot of pitchers with good stuff, but sub-standard results will make great relievers...Juan Cruz is a good example of that...sometimes it's because they don't have great off-speed stuff, or they don't have a change-up, or they only have 2 pitches (like k-rod)...
but the bottom line is that the criteria for a pitching staff is more than just making the top five the starters and the bottom seven the relievers
I like the thought.....
by hoyos on Apr 13, 2005 12:40 PM PDT reply actions
No oway
I've always wondered
by tblazrdude on Apr 13, 2005 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I've always wondered
by tblazrdude on Apr 13, 2005 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
A thought provoking entry
Which leads me to wonder, aloud, why no minor league manager (at least not to my knowledge) has thought of going with an eight or nine man staff where the pitchers earn their starts with consistency in the pen, keep their 'starter status' through continued consistency while starting, and be banished to the pen with poor performance(s). If a manager could sell the notion to their staff's members - with clearly spelled out criteria for evaluation and limited exceptions to the criteria - would the pitchers buy into it and give their managers better performances in the aggregate?
Believe me...
by LowcountryJoe on Apr 13, 2005 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
interesting
Many relievers are failed starters
Tell Los Angeles de Los Angeles
please stop this
It's 'outside the box' thinking
by LowcountryJoe on Apr 13, 2005 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
on the contrary
I can't take it! (lol)
Go tell that to Tim Hudson
Or Bob Welch who won 27 games for the A's in a season with 2 complete games averaging 6 2/3 innings - Eck saved 19 of those wins!!
Last year if the A's had a bullpen they would have made the playoffs - they led the AL in blown saves.
The Angels won the WS without a #1 starter as good as the 3 A's starters! - Bullpen!!
ERA...
by hoyos on Apr 13, 2005 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Great Is A Relative Phrase
Using the A's as an expample, did BB go out to create a "great' pen or to improve on the one he had? Any team blowing 28 saves in 1 year would cause a reaction in any half-witted GM. Last year's model of extending pitcher's such as Mulder deeper into games and watching them burn out would be enough impetus for re- thinking your strategy regarding pitching. BB essentially stated that he couldn't expect more this year out of the B3 than what he saw last. Nor did he have the resources to do so. Thus, why not get some talented young pitchers who may not have to go so far into games initially, until they prove they can attain a quality start on a regular basis.
Being influenced by La Russa's model of shortening the game with his use of Eckersly is a strong case in point. If you can shorten it by 1 inning than why not 2 or 3? If a pitcher , late in a game can perform better than a starter still pitching in inning 6,7,or 8, why not bring him in? Who cares if he was a failed starter? This activity of course led to looking for pitchers through statistical analysis that led to the emergence of pitchers such as our LOOGY, Ricardo Rincon, who has been brought in for very specific circumstances.
So will we see relief pitchers blowing down the door getting into Cooperstown? No way, but there is no reason to find great relief pitchers in each generation distiniguishing themselves from the rest. Likewise, managers and teams with the resources can generate great staffs (including the pen) that are superior to others.
I agree, Iceplant (nasty stuff BTW when your golf ball ends up in it), that relief pitchers sample size can be a bit skewed based upon the types of hitters they are exposed to.
Great pens form rarely. We have to acknowlege teams that have assembled them when it happens. If it were easy, all the teams would have them. They are comprised of pitchers that were former starters (Eck) and pitchers that turn into great starters (Hershiser).
Regarding the role of a pitching staff with no roles defined, it happens all of the time in Little League or Pony Baseball. That's not meant as an insult. When players reach a higher level, they do become creatures of habit. Peterson's handling of our B3 was a great example of success through routine. If Zito has a bad outing, making him available 2 days later might work but may affect his overall performance over the course of an entire season.
Why mess with his confidence?
Oakland and other WS winners have had great pens in the past. It will continue to happen but there are so many factors that go into developing them, that the process acheiving a great pen is usually only seen in relative terms and also very rare.
Wrong
The importance of a bullpin was demonstrated last year.
It takes a special mental ability to pitch the 9th with a one run lead. Closers are not over rated.
by jarforcefatherofforce on Apr 13, 2005 4:18 PM PDT reply actions
i admire and respect much of james' ideas
what most statistical analysis fails to include is the personal psyche of the athlete. athletes, like humans in general, function at a higher level of competence when given a very specific task. much the same can be said about a MLB pitching staff. there are starters, middle/long relievers, situational relievers and "the closer". each player is slotted according to talents-both in a phyiscal nature and a psychological prespective. example: last year with rhodes. rhodes is a phyiscally gifted pitcher but due to psychological or emotional deficiencies (in the role of a "closer" anyway) he was a utter failure. now that rhodes is back in a more comfortable role in cleveland in '05 he is competing again at a reasonably high level.
anyway, those are my thoughts. might be right- might be wrong.
stats can't measure things that have never happene
Something has to be tried a few times before it can be shown to work or not work. The ace reliever theory has almost never been tested - it's a theory on his end that it would work as well as a theory on your end that it wouldn't.
His ace reliever theory also doesn't have anything to do with the "closer mentality". There may very well be a special mindset necessary to pitch the 9th - but, theoretically, the Danny Olbs or Billy Taylors of the world should be able to take that job, while the Riveras and Gagnes would be the ace relievers.
Relief pitching seemed to get popular in the 70's
When the season is done and you are in the playoffs wouldn't you like your 3 best starters fresh for the playoffs?
And if so, wouldn't that be easier with 8 inning games than with 9 inning games. and easier yet with 6 or 7 inning games?
and if that is so and a 300 game winning starter called Eck still has the ability AND DRIVE to pitch 1 to 3 innings, wouldn't it be logical to insert him there?
And since that is logical, isn't it also logical to have a very dynamic lefty named Honeycutt pitch the 8th, to set the Eck up?
But what if you win games in bunches? You don't want to run these guys down in consecutive games, ... good thing Geno was available.
Ex starters as relievers is more logical than college kids.
- They have seen and done it all
- They know what they are doing
- They know who is holding the bat
- They know how to prepare
- They field better, and back up plays better, get involved in run downs, and make late inning defense of the infield an asset.
- They VALUE the role of reliever and what it can do for their career, livelihood, and ache for glory
- Their reputation is instant creditibility with the rest of the team.
- Pitchers in their mid twenties vs mid thirties do not have the same resiliency or body strengths, reliever is more resilient.
- A reliever adds drama to the last inning and that is GOOD gate.
Offenses had hitters of all descript on the benches to pinch-hit in the late innings. It was only a matter of time before "late innings" pitchers were waiting on the benches to greet them.
by A s Eh on Apr 13, 2005 11:47 PM PDT reply actions

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