If This Macha Thing Doesn't Work Out...
We all know the Oakland A's are breaking ground in implementing new ways in which an MLB team is run.
Perhaps the A's are radical enough to take the next step.
Hmmm. Athletics Nation polls to determine when to make pitching changes. Could it be this is the next step in the evolution of the baseball blogosphere?
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36 comments
Comments
Japanese Import
by secret ASian man on Mar 8, 2005 12:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
hell
by SwishMix on Mar 8, 2005 12:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
sorry to take this so seriously...
thanks, but digital (and institutionalized) heckling just isn't my bag.
by sectionthirtyone on Mar 8, 2005 12:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
pretty hilarious idea
To keep the manager from feeling bad, we could allow him to decide when the fans in the stadium are to do "the wave."
by rubin sierra on Mar 8, 2005 1:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
sorry to take this so seriously II...
there are some interesting theories on this sort of thing, i don't know too much about it...
i'm not sure if for best results you'd need a diverse group of people, as many people as possible, or if the people would need to have an incentive in whatever decisions they were making (and would it have to be a monetary stake or would being an a's fan and wanting them to win be enough?).
i think the basic idea is that the collective knowledge of everybody is better than one "expert" (in this case, macha).
for example, compare the 2004 election predictions of your average tv pundit to tradesports futures prices as of the last friday in october (four days before the election), which:
correctly predicted Bush would win, correctly predicted all 50 states except one (Wisconsin, which was one of the closest states), correctly predicted all 34 senate races except one (Alaska), correctly predicted the GOP would keep control of the Senate and House.
also, in terms of economics and hayek vs keynes, today we're pretty happy for the most part with the ability of markets to set prices, whereas as recently as the nixon administration there were government wage and price controls, which obviously didn't work.
if the poll before game 160 had been on who should be the starting pitcher, mulder might have been benched. or game 161, there's no doubt harden would have been brought in instead of mecir.
by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 4:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I tend to see the opposite
also, in terms of economics and hayek vs keynes, today we're pretty happy for the most part with the ability of markets to set prices...
Maybe it's just because I'm a free-market capitalist pig with no reservations, no guilty feelings, and no apologies to make, but I see many more people that loathe market outcomes then I do of those whom embrace them. The issue of trade is the one area that separates the men from the boys and tends to `out' those with central-planning tendencies.
by LowcountryJoe on Mar 8, 2005 5:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What a big strong MAN
SLAP!
oww ... sorry guys, just slapped myself on the wrist for writing that here.
by devo on Mar 8, 2005 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Madness of Crowds vs. Brilliance of Crowds
by jubjub on Mar 8, 2005 7:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
mulder might have been benched
AK-Sen was influenced, largely by severe weather on election day ... which just goes to show that you can't trust the expert masses to look beyond what is directly in front of them. 1,000 people can weigh a set of specific facts or ideas quite effectively. They cannot be expected to look at ever side of an ill-defined issue and come out with the best solution.
by devo on Mar 8, 2005 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
group vs. the individual
by sec119 on Mar 8, 2005 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
john sickels
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/3/4/10450/56528#commenttop
by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
by devo on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
problems
the most obvious is that everyone can see earlier predictions before entering their own. a's fans i'm sure are overrepresented, there are probably other things as well. but it's an interesting idea.
if he did it for enough players and different types of players, it still might turn out to be one of the more accurate models.
by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
econ, back to baseball
however, to use the example of national defense, it is clear that the general public should not be used as a body of policy makers (interpret this your own way, i'm not making ANY political statements here on AN). their information is too limited.
bringing it back to baseball, years ago my friends and I gawked whenever art howe would pull erik hiljus out after six innings. he was pitching fantastically! little did we know he was also throwing on a broken ankle, a fact the A's hid from other teams to prevent them from bunting on him. our information was just too limited to make appropriate decisions.
by sectionthirtyone on Mar 8, 2005 6:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What a nightmare....
I've watched some online chess matches where a
grandmaster plays against 1000s of people on the
internet by majority vote. Almost invariably, the
grandmaster wins. Even when other grandmasters
are involved in the voting! The far larger
number of incompetent players tends to outweigh
the expert advice.
I think the same is true of baseball. Sure,
coaches and managers sometimes make mistakes.
But they do have more (and often better) information about the pitchers and batters than most fans. And they work with them every day. Plus, when it comes down to it, they're the ones responsible for the game.
by atomopawn on Mar 8, 2005 4:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
chess example
baseball has strategy, but nothing like chess. how can thousands of people possibly be on the same page about implementing a complex series of moves, etc.
what if you had not just anyone but 100 people who knew what they were doing and were either a's fans or would get $100 each if the a's won the game?
by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 5:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Obstacle to overcome?
Here's a hypothetical: your team is down 2-0 in the top of the 8th in the middle of a Randy Johnson `no-no'. Johnson has thrown 115 pitches and has just previously walked the batter in the nine-hole, got the lead-off hitter to line out sharply to center, and has walked the two-hole hitter on five pitches creating a men on 1st & 2nd, one out scenario. Rivera has been warming in the pen since the inning began with the walk...how are Yankees fans voting and how are you - a Yankee hater - voting? And, do you want these kinds of decisions made by the aggregate fan?
It would be interesting to put this up to a poll question just to see what the outcome(s) might be; both as an opposing team fan and as a Yankee fan (Yankee fan!? I know, completely hypothetical bordering on absurd, but try and play along).
by LowcountryJoe on Mar 8, 2005 5:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hey ...
by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 5:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Just Sayin' ...
... if you're gonna let the fans cook the meal, you might as well let the fans shop for groceries.
by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 5:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
and my point is
for example, i like the recent trades, but if they had been presented to me at the time, i would definitely have voted no without giving it a second thought.
strategy for a few moves in a single game is FAR different from thinking about long term strategy over a 5-6 year period, knowing the entire a's minor league system, knowing about players and prospects throught the rest of baseball, knowing which skills may be overvalued or undervalued, knowing all the payroll issues, etc.
by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 7:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ingame Strategy
Part of what's so beautiful about baseball is the way every point in a game can connect to another point in a game -- like setting up hitters, bluffing steals and hit-and-runs, defensive placement. You lose that if each decision is made by the masses.
Plus, as a very wise person wrote below:
"the average fan would choose things like stealing and hit and runs far too frequently just because it would be more exciting."
And then this person wrote:
"what if you had a group of knowledgeable people who had a monetary incentive in the team winning?"
I agree. Let's call them "manager" and "coaches."
by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 7:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This has been done before (sort of)
I can not find a source for the following statement so I think that it might be something that I just remember incorrectly but I think that the college of coaches included polling of the fans as far as what would come next. A steal, a hit and run, or what have you. During this two year experiment they went 64-90 and 59-103.
by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 6:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
rene lachemann
I don't like this idea at all, it's an absolute affront to the professionalism of the manager, and the challenge to his authority weakens his position to the club.
It doesn't matter who the manager is, everyone who thinks they're a smart fan thinks he stinks.
by Brian in 317 on Mar 8, 2005 7:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
While we're at it......
by Mission1929 on Mar 8, 2005 7:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No
by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 7:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Decision by Consensus....
by LD on Mar 8, 2005 9:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Baseball needs more excitement! If it were
But excitement can be gained by these simpler modifications too; the pitching mound is actually a hole forcing the pitcher to jump up to deliver the pitch to the plate. Embedding bats with spoolies and large rivits is also bound to add excitement when the defense responds. (Let"s see defenders get the jump on those hits! ... could set zone ratings back a bit though).
But what would really juice baseball (Sorry, bad choice of words) is the MLB Tackle.
Drum roll please...
What we call Catcher today should be the Tackle. When the ball is hit the Catcher, oops! the Tackle, can chase down the the batter on his way to first base. If the Tackle takes him down before he reaches 1B it counts the same as a strike. If it is over the fence (home run) and the Tackle can take down the runner before he can touch all the bases and homeplate, sorry charley, ...it's just a strike!
Of course, ...the runner has the right to defend himself. He can stop, square off, and demand a round of kickboxing for a decision if it's a hit or strike. Of course they will have to wear boxing gloves to keep it civil. If the runner knocks out the tackle it's a home run, if the tackle knocks out the runner, he is an out. (pun intended)
Player traits will evolve a bit and bidding will be high for Rangers bullpen relievers, ...this is also great news for X-boxers, can you imagine Tyson as a pinch runner? ...and martial arts enthusiasts!
Gotta go!
by Billy Ball 2005 on Mar 8, 2005 10:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If BB used this blog as his source
by kvn on Mar 8, 2005 11:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Neither would have Mecir.
by baseballgirl on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Heck,
by baseballgirl on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Consensus Polling = Bad For A's
So by what criteria do we measure our manager's track record. Wins and losses are not the whole story either. It's far too simplistic to say that he had the Big3 plus some great players and that's why he won. Saying that is doing him the same disservice as it is to say that BB is brilliant b/c of the Big 3. Macha maxed out the team's abilities, and he also, through his lack of diplomacy weeded out some of the players eg Terrence Long, that turned out ploblematic.He's a straight talker and some players delicate psyches can't handle that. Too bad.
Decision making by consensus frankly shows lack of leadership. Ken Macha isn't afraid of losing his job. He's well respected by his peers, and while we may criticize some of his decisions, we don't always get the full picture of all that transpires. I say let's judge him at the end of the year and determine, then and only then, if he's worthy an extension.
by Gerard on Mar 8, 2005 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe group decisions are great
The group size simply isn't large enough or diverse enough or informed enough to make the 'right' decisions. For the small market teams, you wouldn't have enough people voting for the positive group decision factor to really come into play. For the large teams, you'd have all the guys who call into talk radio voting... ever heard the sports talk radio in Boston? Trust me, you don't want those guys voting on things that will actually impact the game.
Would fans really put in players who walked more than players who hacked at the ball? Maybe fans around here, but not in an open fan voting system. If the Red Sox fans had had their way, Mark Bellhorn would never have played in the postseason, and we all saw how that worked out.
Besides, if such a scheme was implemented and the team sucked, who would the fans blame? A vital and timeworn tradition (that of ripping the manager/GM/owners/take your administrative pick at the end of a less-than-successful season) would no longer be able to take place. Where's the fun in that, eh? ;)
by Boston Fan in Michigan on Mar 8, 2005 10:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the cubs college of coaches
by vk on Mar 9, 2005 6:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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