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If This Macha Thing Doesn't Work Out...

We all know the Oakland A's are breaking ground in implementing new ways in which an MLB team is run.

Perhaps the A's are radical enough to take the next step.

Hmmm.  Athletics Nation polls to determine when to make pitching changes.  Could it be this is the next step in the evolution of the baseball blogosphere?

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Japanese Import
So we will have TWO Japanese imports this year for the A's.
"I DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!!!" -Brick Tamland, Anchorman

by secret ASian man on Mar 8, 2005 12:08 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

hell
why not let BB call in the instructions. we all know it will happen eventaully.

by SwishMix on Mar 8, 2005 12:13 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

sorry to take this so seriously...
as smart as i'd like to think i am, i don't manage the big leagues for a reason.  imagine a pitcher, already pressured to get outs (remember his mistakes are printed in the newspaper the next morning), seeing a vote of no confidence on a 40 foot screen.

thanks, but digital (and institutionalized) heckling just isn't my bag.

by sectionthirtyone on Mar 8, 2005 12:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

pretty hilarious idea
also, Billy could allow the fans to vote as to whether the current "manager" sits back in the dugout, or perches one knee up on the step.  

To keep the manager from feeling bad, we could allow him to decide when the fans in the stadium are to do "the wave."  

by rubin sierra on Mar 8, 2005 1:07 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

sorry to take this so seriously II...
but i think this is a great idea.

there are some interesting theories on this sort of thing, i don't know too much about it...  
i'm not sure if for best results you'd need a diverse group of people, as many people as possible, or if the people would need to have an incentive in whatever decisions they were making (and would it have to be a monetary stake or would being an a's fan and wanting them to win be enough?).  
i think the basic idea is that the collective knowledge of everybody is better than one "expert" (in this case, macha).  

for example, compare the 2004 election predictions of your average tv pundit to tradesports futures prices as of the last friday in october (four days before the election), which:
correctly predicted Bush would win, correctly predicted all 50 states except one (Wisconsin, which was one of the closest states), correctly predicted all 34 senate races except one (Alaska), correctly predicted the GOP would keep control of the Senate and House.

also, in terms of economics and hayek vs keynes, today we're pretty happy for the most part with the ability of markets to set prices, whereas as recently as the nixon administration there were government wage and price controls, which obviously didn't work.

if the poll before game 160 had been on who should be the starting pitcher, mulder might have been benched.  or game 161, there's no doubt harden would have been brought in instead of mecir.  

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 4:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I tend to see the opposite

also, in terms of economics and hayek vs keynes, today we're pretty happy for the most part with the ability of markets to set prices...

Maybe it's just because I'm a free-market capitalist pig with no reservations, no guilty feelings, and no apologies to make, but I see many more people that loathe market outcomes then I do of those whom embrace them.  The issue of trade is the one area that separates the men from the boys and tends to `out' those with central-planning tendencies.

by LowcountryJoe on Mar 8, 2005 5:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What a big strong MAN
I agree, wholeheartedly. Free markets are the most efficient, fairest economic system ever decised ... problem is, that's not what we've got. It's true, there are some government imposed impedements to trade, but the far greater inefficiency is the massive subsidies that government gifts to favored industries. I'm not just talking about tax breaks and cash payments. I'm also talking about letting companies off the hook for paying for part of their fair production costs and leaving them for society as a whole to pay - things like pollution and their epmployees' health care. There is no way you can argue that these aren't costs of doing business. Under a free market system, every company pays their production costs and then brings their product to market at the most competetive price possible (which isn't even getting into the idea of whether real competition exists in most industries). This just isn't happening in America today.

SLAP!
oww ... sorry guys, just slapped myself on the wrist for writing that here.

devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 9:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Madness of Crowds vs. Brilliance of Crowds
That's the ultimate question.  As a free market lover, I tend to believe in the brilliance.  That said, the average sports fan is an idiot (ever watch a game in a bar?) and I'd be loathe to trust my team's fate to a him.  Macha and the like are paid for the service and I'm perfectly content to let them earn their money.  

by jubjub on Mar 8, 2005 7:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

mulder might have been benched
no, probably not. If it was a poll of nothing but AN regs, there's a good chance of it, but not among the general populous.

AK-Sen was influenced, largely by severe weather on election day ... which just goes to show that you can't trust the expert masses to look beyond what is directly in front of them. 1,000 people can weigh a set of specific facts or ideas quite effectively. They cannot be expected to look at ever side of an ill-defined issue and come out with the best solution.

devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 9:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

group vs. the individual
several studies have come out in the last few years by various economics departments looking at the idea of the advantages of group decision-making vs. individual decision making.  for managing a game, it sounds like a great idea.  for being a gm, the point of moneyball was that not everyone has the same information, and so it's probably best to leave that part to BB.  

by sec119 on Mar 8, 2005 11:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

john sickels
john sickels is doing something similar to group decision making, group stat prediction:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/3/4/10450/56528#commenttop

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 11:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,
I find it comforting that baseball fans are such an optimistic lot, as the predictions are pretty reliably at the high end of the various prediction models he cites.
devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

problems
i'm sure there are problems with what sickels is doing.  

the most obvious is that everyone can see earlier predictions before entering their own. a's fans i'm sure are overrepresented, there are probably other things as well.  but it's an interesting idea.  

if he did it for enough players and different types of players, it still might turn out to be one of the more accurate models.

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 11:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

econ, back to baseball
first: i agree with what you have said.  i can't say i know a lot of economic theory (only what i've picked up from my father, who has an advanced degree in the area), but you are correct.

however, to use the example of national defense, it is clear that the general public should not be used as a body of policy makers (interpret this your own way, i'm not making ANY political statements here on AN).  their information is too limited.

bringing it back to baseball, years ago my friends and I gawked whenever art howe would pull erik hiljus out after six innings.  he was pitching fantastically!  little did we know he was also throwing on a broken ankle, a fact the A's hid from other teams to prevent them from bunting on him.  our information was just too limited to make appropriate decisions.

by sectionthirtyone on Mar 8, 2005 6:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What a nightmare....
Majority voting always tends toward mediocrity.  Votes of the people who really know what they're doing tend to get marginalized by even larger numbers of votes from people who don't -- or people who are deliberated trying to crash the system.

I've watched some online chess matches where a
grandmaster plays against 1000s of people on the
internet by majority vote.  Almost invariably, the
grandmaster wins.  Even when other grandmasters
are involved in the voting!  The far larger
number of incompetent players tends to outweigh
the expert advice.

I think the same is true of baseball.  Sure,
coaches and managers sometimes make mistakes.  
But they do have more (and often better) information about the pitchers and batters than most fans.  And they work with them every day.  Plus, when it comes down to it, they're the ones responsible for the game.

Forty isn't old -- for a tree.

by atomopawn on Mar 8, 2005 4:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

chess example
i think you're talking about something that's too complex to be comparable.  for example, i'd much rather have a single brain surgeon operate on me than have thousands of people vote on what the surgeon should do next.

baseball has strategy, but nothing like chess.  how can thousands of people possibly be on the same page about implementing a complex series of moves, etc.  

what if you had not just anyone but 100 people who knew what they were doing and were either a's fans or would get $100 each if the a's won the game?

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 5:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Obstacle to overcome?
How would you prevent the opposing team's fans from voting on the managerial decisions of your favorite team?

Here's a hypothetical: your team is down 2-0 in the top of the 8th in the middle of a Randy Johnson `no-no'.  Johnson has thrown 115 pitches and has just previously walked the batter in the nine-hole, got the lead-off hitter to line out sharply to center, and has walked the two-hole hitter on five pitches creating a men on 1st & 2nd, one out scenario. Rivera has been warming in the pen since the inning began with the walk...how are Yankees fans voting and how are you - a Yankee hater - voting?  And, do you want these kinds of decisions made by the aggregate fan?

It would be interesting to put this up to a poll question just to see what the outcome(s) might be; both as an opposing team fan and as a Yankee fan (Yankee fan!?  I know, completely hypothetical bordering on absurd, but try and play along).

by LowcountryJoe on Mar 8, 2005 5:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hey ...
How about letting the fans decide what trades to make or which free agents to keep?

by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 5:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

hah
i think you need to re-read the back of the an shirt!

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 5:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just Sayin' ...
(with all due respect to Bill Parcells)

... if you're gonna let the fans cook the meal, you might as well let the fans shop for groceries.

by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 5:48 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

and my point is
GM is far too complex, and requires thinking many moves ahead, just like chess.

for example, i like the recent trades, but if they had been presented to me at the time, i would definitely have voted no without giving it a second thought.  

strategy for a few moves in a single game is FAR different from thinking about long term strategy over a 5-6 year period, knowing the entire a's minor league system, knowing about players and prospects throught the rest of baseball, knowing which skills may be overvalued or undervalued, knowing all the payroll issues, etc.

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 7:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ingame Strategy
is pretty complex too.

Part of what's so beautiful about baseball is the way every point in a game can connect to another point in a game -- like setting up hitters, bluffing steals and hit-and-runs, defensive placement. You lose that if each decision is made by the masses.

Plus, as a very wise person wrote below:
"the average fan would choose things like stealing and hit and runs far too frequently just because it would be more exciting."

And then this person wrote:  
"what if you had a group of knowledgeable people who had a monetary incentive in the team winning?"

I agree. Let's call them "manager" and "coaches."

by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 7:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This has been done before (sort of)
"In 1960 owner P.K. Wrigley experimented with manager position, implementing a "College of Coaches." The system was meant to be a blending of ideas from several individuals instead of the traditional one skipper ended without success five years later when Leo "The Lip" Durocher took the helm."
I can not find a source for the following statement so I think that it might be something that I just remember incorrectly but I think that the college of coaches included polling of the fans as far as what would come next.  A steal, a hit and run, or what have you.  During this two year experiment they went  64-90 and 59-103.

by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 6:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

ah...
but the average fan would choose things like stealing and hit and runs far too frequently just because it would be more exciting.  
what if you had a group of knowledgeable people who had a monetary incentive in the team winning?

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 7:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

rene lachemann
is going to be a great bench coach.

I don't like this idea at all, it's an absolute affront to the professionalism of the manager, and the challenge to his authority weakens his position to the club.

It doesn't matter who the manager is, everyone who thinks they're a smart fan thinks he stinks.

by Brian in 317 on Mar 8, 2005 7:15 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

While we're at it......
Let's just get a laptop computer and a trained monkey to replace Billy Beane.

by Mission1929 on Mar 8, 2005 7:23 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

No
I would not trust the monkey.  Has too many conections with the LA angels of A.

by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 7:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Decision by Consensus....
is a pain in the ass and always yields mediocre results.  Gimmicks like this are somewhat amusing...but given that the stadium will vote to watch grass grow over sports highights, I don't take this idea too seriously.

by LD on Mar 8, 2005 9:19 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Baseball needs more excitement! If it were
interactive with non fans in Borneo, Malaysia, luxembourg, monaco, Azores, all countries, ...people who never even heard of baseball are allowed to activate the interactive options. One day you could have the Vatican control one team and Taliban the other. The next day a Civil war in the Sudan could be decided on the MLB playing fields instead of a bloody war! Baseball could be the game that brings peace to the countries of the world. "In Abner We Trust" could be the Global beacon!

But excitement can be gained by these simpler modifications too; the pitching mound is actually a hole forcing the pitcher to jump up to deliver the pitch to the plate. Embedding bats with spoolies and large rivits is also bound to add excitement when the defense responds. (Let"s see defenders get the jump on those hits! ... could set zone ratings back a bit though).

But what would really juice baseball (Sorry, bad choice of words) is the MLB Tackle.

Drum roll please...

What we call Catcher today should be the Tackle. When the ball is hit the Catcher, oops! the Tackle, can chase down the the batter on his way to first base. If the Tackle takes him down before he reaches 1B it counts the same as a strike. If it is over the fence (home run) and the Tackle can take down the runner before he can touch all the bases and homeplate, sorry charley, ...it's just a strike!

Of course, ...the runner has the right to defend himself. He can stop, square off, and demand a round of kickboxing for a decision if it's a hit or strike. Of course they will have to wear boxing gloves to keep it civil. If the runner knocks out the tackle it's a home run, if the tackle knocks out the runner, he is an out. (pun intended)

Player traits will evolve a bit and bidding will be high for Rangers bullpen relievers, ...this is also great news for X-boxers, can you imagine Tyson as a pinch runner? ...and martial arts enthusiasts!

Gotta go!

by Billy Ball 2005 on Mar 8, 2005 10:13 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Neither would have Mecir.
This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

by baseballgirl on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Heck,
I would have thrown Scoot in to pitch before him last year.
This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

by baseballgirl on Mar 8, 2005 11:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Consensus Polling = Bad For A's
   Let's 1st start off by quoting our intrepid Manager, "the players write the lineup card..." or something to that effect. So how hard is that decision? Not too difficult, I'd say. But as BB plans out 3 years+ ahead, so does Ken Macha, for most of the season. From pitching rotation to R vs L issues in the lineup, Everyday takes on new meaning. We're not even talking about in game decisions that potentially occur at a moment's notice. In all of these areas, we realize, Ken Macha has his input.
   So by what criteria do we measure our manager's track record. Wins and losses are not the whole story either. It's far too simplistic to say that he had the Big3 plus some great players and that's why he won. Saying that is doing him the same disservice as it is to say that BB is brilliant b/c of the Big 3. Macha maxed out the team's abilities, and he also, through his lack of diplomacy weeded out some of the players eg Terrence Long, that turned out ploblematic.He's a straight talker and some players delicate psyches can't handle that. Too bad.
   Decision making by consensus frankly shows lack of leadership. Ken Macha isn't afraid of losing his job. He's well respected by his peers, and while we may criticize some of his decisions, we don't always get the full picture of all that transpires. I say let's judge him at the end of the year and determine, then and only then, if he's worthy an extension.

by Gerard on Mar 8, 2005 12:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe group decisions are great
but not for baseball.

The group size simply isn't large enough or diverse enough or informed enough to make the 'right' decisions.  For the small market teams, you wouldn't have enough people voting for the positive group decision factor to really come into play.  For the large teams, you'd have all the guys who call into talk radio voting... ever heard the sports talk radio in Boston?  Trust me, you don't want those guys voting on things that will actually impact the game.

Would fans really put in players who walked more than players who hacked at the ball?  Maybe fans around here, but not in an open fan voting system.  If the Red Sox fans had had their way, Mark Bellhorn would never have played in the postseason, and we all saw how that worked out.

Besides, if such a scheme was implemented and the team sucked, who would the fans blame?  A vital and timeworn tradition (that of ripping the manager/GM/owners/take your administrative pick at the end of a less-than-successful season) would no longer be able to take place.  Where's the fun in that, eh? ;)

by Boston Fan in Michigan on Mar 8, 2005 10:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the cubs college of coaches
was one of several desperation moves P.K. Wrigley made to improve the Cubs. The only year it was really tried, 1961, it led to total confusion. Another of his moves was to hire the athletic director of the Air Force Academy to be the Cubs' "athletic director." Neither he or anyone else knew what that meant, and the poor guy wound up charting pitches before he was fired. One good thing in all this mess: One of the coaches was Buck O'Neill, the old Negro Leagues star who became the majors' first African American coach.

by vk on Mar 9, 2005 6:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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