The Second Base Quandary

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 7, 2005 9:04 PM PST in News

Mark Ellis, Keith Ginter and Marco Scutaro. All three are vying for the second baseman's position. Each with their own special set of strengths and weaknesses.

Keith Ginter, acquired from Milwaukee for Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr, is the offensive one in the bunch. He's got a career .344 on-base percentage and had 19 bombs last year in only 113 games. Ellis has a career .331 on-base percentage. But Ginter's defense is, well, it isn't exactly Mark Ellis who can be gold glove quality, if he is healthy.

Ginter has a .792 career OPS while Ellis is an Ice Cube-like .711.

Ginter's OPS has risen the past two seasons, and while Ellis missed all last year, his OPS went down from 2002 to 2003. But one interesting thing to note about Ginter. While his OPS went up from 03 to 04, he had a lot more strikeouts in 04 compared to 03 (100 K's to 87 K's). This despite playing in 14 fewer games in 04 than in 03. So while Ginter added to his power numbers, it was at the cost of his OBP, which dropped in 04.

Ellis, meanwhile, has been very hot starting off this spring, despite missing so much time. The A's rave about Ellis's defensive abilities and to steal possible base hits away better than either Ginter or Scutaro. That's evidenced by Ellis's .889 zone rating in 2003 compared to Ginter's .819 zone rating at second base in 2004. Scutaro had a .799 zone rating at second base in 2004. The thing is, when Scutaro gets there, he always makes the play as evidenced by his .994 fielding percentage.

Scoot also spent the winter trying to develop more patience at the plate because he knows that's what Billy Beane and company are looking for. His .297 OBP in 04 was pretty much unacceptable.

So, to me (and probably to Macha to as he has barely let Scutaro see the field so far this spring), the race comes down to Ellis and Ginter. Thus far, because of his remarkable defensive skills and the fact that he's swinging the bat extremely well early, I give the early edge to Eddie Guardado's favorite player, Mark Ellis.

But the good news is that Ellis can also play shortstop, Ginter can also play third and Scutaro can also play second, short and third, so as Ken Macha has already stated, there's a chance all three could make the team.

If you'd asked me this a month ago, I wouldn't have believed Ellis has come out the way he has. For that, the guy deserves all the credit in the world. And the inside track.

Who do you think will wind up with the majority of the starts at second base this year? Click on entry link below to vote.

Poll

Who will wind up with the most starts at second base this year?

Marco Scutaro

7 votes

Mark Ellis

97 votes

Keith Ginter

60 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 46 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I say Ellis

If Ellis can play like he did in 2003 rather than how he did in 2004 (and I think he's capable of considerably better than what he put up his rookie year), I think it's his job. While we did lose our groundball intensive pitchers, I still want a 2B who can field and be counted on to turn the double play. Unless Ginter shows power we're not expecting (30 HR, .850+ OPS kind of power), Scutaro blows us all away, or Ellis is just horrific, I think Ellis gets the starting job.

by dchu on Mar 7, 2005 9:18 PM PST reply actions

Before Spring Training...

I would have (and did, I think) vote Scutaro. But, with Ellis' performance thusfar, I think 2nd base is his. Right now, he may be the perfect blend at 2nd. Decent hitting with good fielding. A "better" Marco Scutaro. Ginter will, of course, make the team for the same reason Kielty made it last year and this year (Billy traded for him). So, that will leave Marco the odd man out. I don't see the A's carrying three 2nd basemen.

"I'm my biggest fan ..." Eric Byrnes

by FoolshGame22 on Mar 7, 2005 9:53 PM PST reply actions

It will be tempting

to play Ginter a lot because the A's lack a certain amount of RH punch, but I think Ellis will ultimately get the nod because while his torrid offensive pace (in all of 5 meaningless games) will not hold, but Ginter's shaky defense (already evident) will--and 2B is a hard position to hide a mediocre defensive player.

As much as I loved (a healthy) Ray Durham, even he is a bit of liability in the Giants' lineup with his lack of defensive range and his propensity to make easy plays look hard.

I think over the long haul, Ellis' defense, along with his mature, fundamental approach at the plate, will win him the lion's share of the PT.

Scooter was a trooper last year, but sadly he has "odd man out" written all over him--particularly since Gintlis can reasonably say, "Everything you can do, I can do better..."

Nico

by Nico on Mar 7, 2005 10:08 PM PST reply actions

exactly

I couldn't have said it better.

Who's Gintlis?

by rubin sierra on Mar 8, 2005 1:12 AM PST up reply actions

Power

The biggest problem with the A's last year (even bigger than their blown saves) was the inability to score runs. They need to have someone that can get the clutch hit with runners on. Ellis could not do that in 2003. That said, everyone was raving about his off-season preparation getting ready for 2004. If Ellis' s hitting has improved and he adds some power (and he can throw), he may get the nod. Ginter, on the other hand, has shown he has power. If he is ahead of Ellis in driving in runs, he gets the nod. It should be an interesting spring. Who can handle the pressure? I hope both can and it becomes a tough decision for Macha.

Jim

by jarforcefatherofforce on Mar 7, 2005 10:23 PM PST reply actions

I like Ginter as the starter

With Ellis being a late inning defender on a regular basis. For the reasons that jim mentioned I think that the A's would be best off that way.

by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 6:05 AM PST up reply actions

Sort of Like ...

Byrnes as the starter in left and Thomas as the late-inning defensive replacement.

Or maybe the braintrust decides it's okay to give up some defense for a more powerful righty bat with certain pitchers on the mound, or after/before a certain inning with a certain number of run lead/deficit.

The bottom line is that I see the situations in left and second as pretty similar and I'm sure Billy and Ken will use some formula to figure it out. It makes sense that when you want good D, you want it all around and that when you need a more powerful lineup, you'd want to maximize your opportunities.

Of course, for groundball or flyball pitchers it seems you could more safely sacrifice infield or outfield defense.

by Eck on Mar 8, 2005 7:02 AM PST up reply actions

I like the offense early

with Ginter, and defense later on with Ellis. Unless Ellis turns the corner with his offensive game this year. The Red Sox were very successfull with starting Bellhorn and replacing him with Pokey Reese later in the game.

by carp on Mar 8, 2005 8:03 AM PST up reply actions

Marco played winter ball and upped his obp

so his at bats at ST have less meaning then evaluating Ginter & Ellis' glovework.
Scoot is the platoon Vs lefties (7 hrs)
Ginter hits a hr every 13 at bats in the #5 hole, you can find a spot for that, oh yes, and doubles.
Ellis is a given for A's fans, if the labrum woes are done, his defense can free the bases of opponents base runners.

Factor; Ellis' stamina took a hit from the year off, he is not a fulltime everyday player this year. There is also a chance the doc will prescribe a strengthening program with regular days off to play it safe with the labrum. (I don't know this as a fact, I'm substituting a little logic)

Macha & BB must learn the art of platooning this year. This team does not have 9 everyday players and must find an offensive mix that works now while we still have a healthy mix of experienced vets in their "prime" on the roster.

"all we really want out of the season is two things -- (1) To make the postseason, and (2) To win the last game we play." Huckaby

by A s Eh on Mar 7, 2005 11:57 PM PST reply actions

is there a history of players with torn labrums

is there a history of players with torn labrums that we can compair Ellis' progress to? How many players make it back from such an injury within a year?

by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 6:07 AM PST up reply actions

Devastating

I don't know about fielders, but a torn labrum is devastating for a pitcher. I think that's the one injury you can't recover from (think Pedro in two years). I was diagnosed with a torn labrum in November (frayed from weight lifting for a decade and then tore open) and I've done everything the doc says and it's 0% better. Next stop: surgery. But, even then, it will only ever be 50-60% the original strength.

The biggest risk for Ellis is that it will re-occur (especially next to Crosby).

by jubjub on Mar 8, 2005 7:24 AM PST up reply actions

Sounds like Crosby owes Ellis money

Hmmm... lost earnings... pain and suffering... intentional infliction of emotional distress...

"You can throw your cocks if I don't care!" - Iggy Pop

by AlamedaAphid on Mar 8, 2005 11:14 AM PST up reply actions

I think it also depends on how the

offense performs coming out of the gate. If it struggles and Ellis isn't performing, I think the A's are going to be willing to sacrifice defense for offense.

But with that young pitching staff...like how things unraveled on Etherton the other day because of an error or two...it makes sense to have the most solid defense possible behind the kids.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 8, 2005 12:06 AM PST reply actions

Defense for the young pitchers

Blez, you make an excellent point, and that may give Ellis the lion's share of playing time if he proves he's healthy and able to make the necessary throws.

The trouble with Ellis is that I'm still not sold on him as an offensive player, and I do not know how he's going to hold up after a year on the shelf.

Scutaro does seem to be getting squeezed out of the picture.

It is good that all three players are able to field more than one position.

by bear88 on Mar 8, 2005 2:30 AM PST up reply actions

like almost everyone else

I think it is Ellis and have thought that from the beginning. BB loves Ellis for his defense, and there is reason to expect him to improve his offense. Ginter will play quite a bit for his offense, and Ellis will be in there late in a game when the A's are leading

by china bob on Mar 8, 2005 5:59 AM PST reply actions

Ellis at SS

I have heard Mark throwing strength is not comming along as hoped. Can he really make the throw from SS to 1st?

by mikedaviswhereareyou on Mar 8, 2005 7:00 AM PST reply actions

Not SS

Ginter can't play SS, but he can play OF and 3B. I think he'll be in the line-up almost every day. He's a great offensive player, and not as bad of a defensive player as some think. He could also factor in at DH from time to time, so I think Ginter gets 500 AB. If he gets the AB's, he will become a Jeff Kent-lite, or maybe closer to Marcus Giles-lite. He was the one guy the Brewers traded this offseason that I was sad to see go, it isn't often when a 2Bman can give you 20 HR and an .800 OPS. I was happy to get Nelson Cruz and Lehr in exchange for him, and at least Ginter went to my other fave team, so it could be worse.

Check out "Brew Grit" at http://brewgrit.blogspot.com

by brewersandathletics on Mar 8, 2005 7:48 AM PST reply actions

There's one kind of ominous development....

...in the whole Ginter/Ellis/Scutaro thing. One of the leitmotifs of the Macha tenure is a lack of communication about roles. Macha went into spring training saying that it was a three-way battle, but to date, he's completely ignored Scutaro.

by jrbh on Mar 8, 2005 8:17 AM PST reply actions

possible explanation

scutaro doesn't need to prove himself at 2b defensively, he needs to prove himself offensively (on base percentage). therefore, he should be at SS or 3b, also because he might have to play there when crosby and chavez are off.

on the other hand, ellis and ginter do need to prove themselves at 2b defensively, ginter because his defense is weak and ellis because of the injury.

so there could be another explanation besides more macha miscommunication.
of course, i still don't see scutaro making the team...

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 9:13 AM PST up reply actions

I completely agree with you

for once :-)

Macha is making it obvious that it isn't really a two-way battle by his decisions on who to play.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 8, 2005 11:00 AM PST up reply actions

I meant three-way battle

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 8, 2005 11:00 AM PST up reply actions

Winter Ball

Scooter was playing all winter and should come in pretty much ready to play. The initial priority would then be to get the other guys sharp before getting into a real competition.

We'll know for sure whether three-way or a manage-a-noscootera in a week or so.

devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 11:18 AM PST up reply actions

C'mon guys

We all read Moneyball. One of the first things the book states is that offense is by far and large the most important factor of a team's performance. Therefore, because Ginter is much better offensively than Ellis, it seems like a no-brainer for me to predict that BB will pick him when the season starts. Ellis is good and all, but I think Billy is going back to his roots: OBP and a strong offense.

Get the ducks on the pond and slam 'em in!

by Cy Hudson on Mar 8, 2005 8:41 AM PST reply actions

ellis vs durham

ellis started at 2b over ray durham, who was a better hitter.

by xbhaskarx on Mar 8, 2005 9:10 AM PST up reply actions

that is because

durham was the best option at DH.

by Athletics fan and runner on Mar 8, 2005 9:55 AM PST up reply actions

Wasted trade if ginter sits.

Trade ginter if he will be a back up to Ellis!!!

by novaoakland on Mar 8, 2005 8:42 AM PST reply actions

Back to the Brewers!

As long as they get to keep Cruz.:)

Check out "Brew Grit" at http://brewgrit.blogspot.com

by brewersandathletics on Mar 8, 2005 8:46 AM PST up reply actions

"dark-horse favorite"...mine too. :)

This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.

by baseballgirl on Mar 8, 2005 9:02 AM PST reply actions

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus...

had this to say in a column entitled "Not My Guys" today:

Mulder's old team is running a risk of its own. In grabbing Keith Ginter from the Brewers, the A's picked up a second baseman with good power. The rest of Ginter's game, though, has gone south. He's not a good defensive second baseman (-13 runs the past two years in just 109 games), his plate discipline indicators have gone backwards, and he's a flyball hitter whose tendencies won't port well to the cavernous Coliseum. At 29 in May, it's reasonable to think that he's peaked, and will be a bench player from here on out. Mark Ellis, if healthy, would be the best choice at second base.

Certainly helps to swing my support into the Ellis column. I actually think a careful platoon dictated by offensive and defensive needs could be extremely effective, but I just haven't seen anything from Macha that indicates he could adeptly handle such a situation. Past experience with the bullpen and the outfield has shown that Macha leaves much to be desired in terms of knowing which player to insert at what time, and, as jrbh mentioned, in effectively communicating his reasoning and intentions to the players themselves.

by Vic @ Athletics Nation on Mar 8, 2005 9:50 AM PST reply actions

Treatment of Ellis has been disappointing

This has been my pet peeve of the off-season. Ellis desrerves every chance to reclaim his position. The focus has been on arm strength but this,I think, has been used as an allebye (sp?), to give Ginter the edge at 2b. Come on fellas! It's Ellis shoulder that was compromised, not his feet, brains, or bat. We all acknowlege that his productivity fell off, but this hasn't stopped him from not spending lots of hours in the cage. If 2003 was acknowleged as his 2nd season, then his dropoff is explainable.He has already proven this spring that his arm strength isn't an issue. Without him playing everyday, the team is at a disadvantage!Ginter will be valuable, as will Scutaro, but not as everyday starters.

by Gerard on Mar 8, 2005 10:23 AM PST up reply actions

I don't think BB needs an alibi

I'm relatively certain he's more or less free of bias and will give the job to whoever will do the best job.

I think, on top of seeing a defensive platoon with Ginter getting more starts behind flyball pitchers and Ellis getting more behind groundball pitchers, we also may see a day-night platoon, with Ginter playing in the sunshine and warm air that'll help his fly balls soar the extra 10 feet to get them out.

devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 10:49 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah, but didn't you find it odd,

that just about every reference to Ellis was predicated on their "concern" over his health?
Ordinarily I would think their verbage was appropriate, however, not much was said positively about him for the past 6 months.
Devo, you bring up another point. It's simplistic to say bring in Ginter for fly ball pitchers and Ellis for groundball pitchers. So what kinds of pitchers do we have? Ellis was, by your reasoning taylored for Hudson and Mulder, to a lesser extent, Harden. We don't exactly know what our other starting pitchers will do, which is okay. But with more unpredictiblity from the mound, our defense needs to be stronger, not weaker up the middle. The day vs night thing, I can't quite understand, unless it's balmy in Oakland and the wind is blowing out. Ellis never struck as being weaker one way or the other. Ginter, No clue yet.
So, Devo what characteristics are you looking for out of our starting pitchers that would sway your thinking to favor one of our three prospective second basemen? Personally, I'd still take Ellis at 2nd b/c if Ginter's bat is any good, he can always DH or fill in elsewhere.

by Gerard on Mar 8, 2005 4:32 PM PST up reply actions

I'd wager

that BB has fairly extensive stats on the GB/FB ratios of our "Young Guns", which are likely a fairly good predicter of what sort of a pitcher they will be in the bigs. Even though I don't know what those stats might be, I trust that he does, and could easily answer that question for you.

Unless Scooter learned some new tricks last winter, he does not display any characteristics, other than a neat name, that would sway my thinking in his favor. I know, he did gobble up the rare ball that he actually got to quite effectively.

Especially for the first couple months of the season, the cool, damp night time air tends to keep a lot of fly balls in the park, that's why I suggest a day-night platoon. Since Ellis isn't going to hit more than a handfull of jacks anyway, it won't hurt him much.

I also don't think we need to have a perfectly defined strategy going in. Ginter can play half the time for a whole, Ellis can play the other half, and they can get some extra ABs filling in at third and short respectively. Let them write the lineup from there.

devo's gf: "what is it that you write about all day when they don't even play any games?"

by devo on Mar 8, 2005 4:42 PM PST up reply actions

Bottom Line

...we've got some diversity at second base(and the rest of the infield for that matter) that will lend itself to matchups that I hope Macha can utilize in favor for OUR OAKLAND ATHLETICS!

by Gerard on Mar 8, 2005 4:56 PM PST up reply actions

When asked

Maybe Ginter wasn't asked to go deep in the count before. You can't always judge a player unless you know the circumstances. Can he handle his obs better as a A. He can.

Jim

by jarforcefatherofforce on Mar 8, 2005 11:49 AM PST up reply actions

I personally would like to start out...

...with Ellis if he's healthy. I'd sit Ginter down and tell him he's going to be our supersub: he'll play 1B against lefties, and he'll play 20-30 games at 2B, 10+ at 3B and 20-30 games in the outfield, for a total of about 100 starts.

It's impossible for me to imagine Macha pulling something like that off, though, on any number of levels.

by jrbh on Mar 8, 2005 10:01 AM PST reply actions

this was my point, but

you wisely posted it.

i didn't like the ginter trade and i still don't. i have little love for the guys the a's traded-although i think lehr could be a very serviceable reliever-but this ginter has "mistake" written all over him.

i agree with jrbh, put him at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, lf in low-risk situations and hope for the best.

My CPA says-"Damn, you must really hate this time of year". I said-"Don't worry, I just bought a thousand shares of Astropitch."

by bigelephant on Mar 9, 2005 7:18 AM PST up reply actions

I don't think he'll play 1st

Highly doubt he'll plat first, since he's like 5'8".

Check out "Brew Grit" at http://brewgrit.blogspot.com

by brewersandathletics on Mar 8, 2005 10:14 AM PST reply actions

The un-written rule

There is an un-written rule rule in pro sports that if you get hurt, the position is yours when you come back, unless you can't regain your form.

The job is Ellis' until he proves otherwise.

"Fear leads to hate, and hate......leads to the Darkside."-Yoda

by Force on Mar 8, 2005 10:53 AM PST reply actions

season-ending injury

i think that rule holds fast during the season, but if it's a season-ending injury, then it's followed as convenient...

by sec119 on Mar 8, 2005 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

Tell that to Aaron Boone

And that A-Rod guy

Check out "Brew Grit" at http://brewgrit.blogspot.com

by brewersandathletics on Mar 8, 2005 10:58 AM PST reply actions

Isn't infield D less important now?

Now that the two big groundball pitchers are gone?

"You can throw your cocks if I don't care!" - Iggy Pop

by AlamedaAphid on Mar 8, 2005 11:14 AM PST reply actions

Ginter, whether he's 5'8" or not...

...probably couldn't be any worse than Hatteberg.

I've assumed all along that Scutaro is going to make the team no matter what because he can be the back-up SS, something neither Ellis nor Ginter can do at this point.

That looks like trouble to me: either we go with Ellis and Ginter and no Scoot, with Crosby wearing himself out again, or we go with Ellis and Scoot and Ginter never gets to play.

This may be what gets Macha fired this year.

by jrbh on Mar 8, 2005 11:28 AM PST reply actions

It'd be a joke if Scoot ever plays over Gint

He's nowhere near the player Ginter is. PLain and simple. I know he put up that admirable sub-700 OPS last year, but try to be objective like Billy will.

Check out "Brew Grit" at http://brewgrit.blogspot.com

by brewersandathletics on Mar 8, 2005 11:32 AM PST reply actions

trade bait

It's too early to speculate (oh, who am I kidding? It's never too early, especially when the season hasn't started) but I think the big question is who's going to attract the best swap - Ginter to a late-season contender looking for one more bat? Scutaro or (a healthy) Ellis to a big-offense club looking for a cheap, solid young defender for the future (Seattle/LA) ? I think these guys are placeholders, especially if there's any truth to BB eyeing Chris Burke.

by asadasam on Mar 8, 2005 7:38 PM PST reply actions