A's win the AL West...

by Flash G on Mar 30, 2005 4:10 PM PST Comment 6 comments

at least according to the good folks at Diamond Mind Baseball.

Here is the link to their 2005 projected standings:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2005.htm

Diamond Mind's Monte Carlo simulations predict that our beloved Athletics will finish one game ahead of the Angels with a record of 85-77. These guys actually have a very good track record with a few notable exceptions.

Their analysis of the Mariners is pretty interesting as well - time will tell how their pitching peforms. And it's about time that something actually sees and points out the flaws in the Angels lineup.

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nice

interesting read.

But wow, the A's and Angels are close. Theres only a .5 difference in playoff appearances, and 1 game in the standings. Though I am supprised that they show the West with such low win totals, especialy after the totals last year, I guess you can attribute it to there being no team to beat up on and inflate your win total like the other divisions. Seatle, nor Texas should be a pushover so theres no 100 loss team to rack up victorys against.

"I'm good because I ground out to second a lot!" ~ Darin Erstad

by Zonis on Mar 30, 2005 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Zonis,

that's how I see it too. The AL West is going to be very competitive. The Rangers will cause some problems and the Mariners should be much better than last year. No better way to expedite the progress and development of our young pitching than by throwing them into a division race that is tight from start to finish.

"Hey Pedro - are you going to eat your tots?" - Napoleon Dynamite

by Flash G on Mar 30, 2005 5:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I've thought for a while

that the AL west teams will be beating up on each other all throught the season, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them all fairly close together in the W/L columns at the end of the season, and the division winner come away with a fairly low win total.

by OaklandSi on Mar 30, 2005 6:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

some big "ifs"

"Oakland's pitching is no longer a major asset, but it won't be a liability if Barry Zito and Rich Harden get some help from youngsters Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and DAN MEYER"

That, and I'm not sure how this simulation works to compensate for minor league stats, but we have a lot of those.

by kvn on Mar 30, 2005 7:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, interesting reading.

And I just caught the ESPN trio of experts giving their predictions on the AL West (Kruk,and company)and not one mention of the A's! All Angels, Texas if they get pitching, and Seattle has the best fielders. Not one stinking mention of the word A's or Oakland the entire little stint. Fine (harummphh) we got em just where we want em.

Alaska-A, Number-one-A's-fan-in-southern-southeast-Alaska.

by ak_A on Mar 30, 2005 10:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I put much more faith in Diamond Mind

than the crew at ESPN. I actually ran my own simulation with the Diamond Mind projections and had the A's winning pretty handsomely in the West (ouch - but losing to the Cards in Game 7, extra innings).

In my run, Zito had a strong year, but the other four starters were all in the mid-upper 4's in ERA. I guess that is league average now. The pen was quite strong and the offense was outstanding.

I'd put more weight in Diamond Mind's monte carlo runs, but it was fun to see one possible outcome play itself out.

by boilerdan on Mar 31, 2005 7:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs