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Sportsline: Contrasting A's and Angels on hitting

The sportsline.com preview of the LAAOA is all about the difference between the Angels' hitting philosophy and that of the A's.

There are many phrases you might hear if you hang around manager Mike Scioscia's Angels long enough during the course of a season. "A walk is as good as a hit" probably won't be one of them.

In an American League West containing the calculating and picky Oakland Athletics in one corner, the Angels are the undisciplined cousin who lives life by impulse.

In an AL West in which the Athletics have enjoyed great success by choosing pitches with more care and selection than your grandmother uses in picking out eggs at the supermarket, the Angels last year ranked 14th -- last -- in the league in walks.

You can improve your OBP by getting hits, not just walks, say the Angels:

The Angels share a belief with the Athletics in the importance of on-base percentage. But they do not share a belief with Oakland that walks are an integral part of boosting it.

While the Angels ranked 14th in the AL and 28th in baseball last year with 450 walks, Oakland was third in the AL and fifth in the majors with 608.

Yet, in on-base percentage, while Oakland ranked fifth in the AL and ninth in the majors at .343, the Angels were right with them -- sixth in the AL and 13th in the majors at .341. And on the final weekend of the season, the Swingin' Angels won the first two games of a series in Oakland to steal the division title.

Star-divide

Garret Anderson, perhaps unintentionally, agrees with something I've always said:  "A walk is as good as a hit" only when the bases are empty.  A walk, obviously, won't score the tying run from scoring position with two outs in the eighth.

"Pitchers throw strikes, and you've got to swing the bat," left fielder Garret Anderson says. "In theory, (walking) sounds good, but you've still got to swing the bat and get those guys to score."

Ah, but then we get to one big reason for the difference in philosophy:

Certainly, the Athletics have had terrific success with their style of play -- especially when you consider that the Angels payroll the past few seasons has dwarfed Oakland's, allowing them in theory to sign a few more talented players (last year and again this season, the Angels payroll will be around $100 million and Oakland's will be little more than half of that, roughly $60 million). While Oakland, partly due to financial limitations, is very specific in searching for players who fit into its philosophy -- the Scott Hattebergs and Erubiel Durazos -- the Angels concentrate on finding players who will play well in Scioscia's move-runners-over, keep-the-pressure-on-the-defense style.

Absolutely, if I can afford Vladimir Guerrero, I won't tell him to stand there with the bat on his shoulder.  If all I can afford is Hatty and Ruby, then maybe I tell them to just get on base any way they can.  Duh.

Still, though, beyond the money, it is a difference in philosophy between Beaneball and Scioscia's 1970s-era approach to generating runs:

"When you hit and run, certain percentages in your game are going to go down," Erstad says. "There are not going to be many walks because you're swinging early in the count. That's just the way it is.

"You know what? It's aggressive, but it's not crazy. You still understand there are parts of the game where you need to take advantage of certain situations. Compared to other teams, we sure don't walk much."

But compared to other teams, well ... the Angels won the World Series in '02 and gave themselves a chance to win again in '04. Whatever gets you through the night.

"There are different philosophies, but who's to say which one is right?" Erstad says. "You can analyze it until you're blue in the face, but this is the way Sosh wants to play ball. This is the way they set this team up.

"This is the way we're going to do it."

Vive la difference.  Let's start the season.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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Let them waste their outs
Garret Anderson, perhaps unintentionally, agrees with something I've always said:  "A walk is as good as a hit" only when the bases are empty.  A walk, obviously, won't score the tying run from scoring position with two outs in the eighth.

By that logic, a pop-up won't score the run either, and you'll just end the inning to boot. The same with a grounder, a fly-out, a whiff, a foul-out, a dribbler, a line-out, a foul bunt, a foul tip, etc. With a walk at least you prolong the inning and give the next guy a chance to knock in a run, or, if the bases are loaded, to walk in a run. Plus you drive up the pitcher's pitch count and wear him out mentally.

by OaktownTribesman on Mar 23, 2005 5:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

good points
i wonder what the difference was in pitches per plate appearance...

by xbhaskarx on Mar 23, 2005 7:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

they miss one of the main points
A selective batting eye will put batters in hitters counts, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1.  Then you can look for a pitch to drive and this results in increased SLG.

A by-product of this is increased BB and OBP.  But one of the main reasons OBP is important is that there is a strong correlation between OBP and SLG...

by dude on Mar 23, 2005 8:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Lack of common sense
This silliness is great news for the A's.  And if the Angels really believe walks don't score runs except when the bases are loaded, then I say hallelujah.

Here's why:

  1.  How did the Giants, with one certified Big Bopper and a bunch of also-rans, score as many runs last year as the bopper-laden Cardinals?  Answer -- walks.  Over the course of the season, all those extra walks to Barry gave the Giants a great advantage in scoring opportunities over the Cardinals.
  2.  Man on first.  Next batter, even if he's a good hitter, gets out two times out of three.  So, one-third of the time, the following batter is down one or two (DP) outs.  With a walk, there's a 100% chance that the next batter has two men on, and the outs situation the same, a far better situation.  Walks kill you.  Doesn't Mike Scosia wonder why?
  3.  Barry Bonds walked something like 250 times last year.  If he'd been allowed to hit, he would have made 180 outs.  That's what those walks gave away.
  4.  OBP is, IMHO, more a function of walks than hits.  History shows great hitters who have lousy and great patience, but neither approach translates into a higher OBP.  It is plate discipline that brings ont he walks.
  5.  Perhaps in a short series you want better hitters, since the percentage advantage of high walks may not play out, but great hitters cost more, are harder to come by, and slump more than great walkers.  And the difference last year between the Angels and not the A's making the playoffs was not one of Angels hitting, but due to A's pitching.
Dinger

by dingerpower on Mar 23, 2005 9:23 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Dinger
Your last point is why the A's can't get past the first round of the playoffs.  Teams in the playoffs throw strikes, know how to get out of jams, and don't equivocate with a man on base.

However, building a team with undervalued players (high OBP) is how they end up even reaching the playoffs.  Kudos to BB and staff for deducing which charachteristics are undervalued and can produce a winner.

Can we get Astropitch to sell "Free Dan Johnson" T-Shirts?

by carp on Mar 23, 2005 11:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Playoffs vs. regular season
The A's philosophy is built on maximizing wins over a 162-game season.  It's not designed for the raise-your-game-to-a-higher-level approach that is often necessary in the playoffs.  Every system has its limitations; this is the A's limitation.

I remember saying, "Put the bat on the ball and get a [bleeping] hit" a few times during that playoff series against the Twins, when it seemed that the A's were leaving runners in scoring position almost every inning and that certain batters almost wanted to try and walk rather than trying to get a clutch hit and a RBI.

Of course, whether your team is built to win in the playoffs is only relevant if your team gets there.

MJB

by MJB on Mar 23, 2005 11:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Playoffs
Your last point is why the A's can't get past the first round of the playoffs.  Teams in the playoffs throw strikes, know how to get out of jams, and don't equivocate with a man on base.

Why are people always blaming our hitting philosophy for the A's first round chokes? Scoring has never been a problem for the A's in the playoffs, it's been winning that 3rd game period. It's foolish to think that it's the A's plate discipline that cost us those 4 series, as opposed to say a bloop single by T-Long here, or a slide into homeplate by Jeremy Giambi there. Just face it that we were so close to winning that there is no inherent flaw in our strategy for why we didn't, it's just that we choked/messed up/caught a bad break more often than not. Blame it on nerves, on makeup, on inexperience, but not on patience.

by OaktownTribesman on Mar 23, 2005 12:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Then there was Game 5 vs. Boston
when Macha pinch hit Dye for Melhuse with guys on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and the infield in.  What happened?  Strikeout LOOKING.  How about the next hitter, T-Long?  Strikeout LOOKING.  That's a tough way to go out...
Can we get Astropitch to sell "Free Dan Johnson" T-Shirts?

by carp on Mar 23, 2005 12:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

T-Long and Melhuse
Those two aren't the best examples for patience/plate discipline. And T-Long just plain sucks.

by OaktownTribesman on Mar 23, 2005 12:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Can we get Astropitch to sell "Free Dan Johnson" T-Shirts?

by carp on Mar 23, 2005 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But in reality
As I have said many times on this site, Zito was gassed warming up for the 6th. He should have never been there. (BTW he hit the backstop twice warming up), when he did get in trouble we Macha had Bowie and Halama warming up, after ManRam hit the bomb, Lily got up and came in, and looked good. Why didn't he pitch the 6th? Macha still isn't sleeping over that decision.
"Not the fucking ducks again." Tony S.

by rook on Mar 23, 2005 2:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not the hitting
Its unbelievable that people don't understand the law of averages when they start talking about the playoffs.

When a player goes to bat, it is impossible to know if he will hit, walk, or get an out.  No way to tell.  Doesn't matter if he's Teddy Ballgame or below the Mendoza line. In that at bat, he can hit one of two averages: zero and 1.000.  And every player has the same opportunity.

What is paramount in most people's memories of the A's failures in the playoffs is not poor pitching or poor hitting (tho I finger poor pitching among the two), but bonehead plays by the players -- Jeremy, Miguel, Byrnes, etc.  

And bonehead moves by the manager.  Long ago it became clear that Joe Torre manages differently in a playoff than he does in the regular season -- and that Art Howe never did.  

Mental mistakes by the managers and by the players.  I bet if one kept track, one could find a lot of bonehead moves throughout the year -- that should have been correctable, if the managers weren't also boneheads.

I just hope the A's can play the game more intelligently this year.  That alone should bring them three games.

by dingerpower on Mar 23, 2005 8:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The goal for an offense
is not to get a hit or get on base, but to score runs .

Last year Oakland led the Angels in OBP (.343 to .341) and SLG (.433 to .429).  The A's also hit more homeruns (189 to 162).  Yet the Angels outscored the A's 836 to 793 ranking 7th in the AL to the A's 9th place.  Their team BA beat the A's .282 to .270.

Walks, on their own, are very good things.  Patience at the plate, which leads to swinging at hitters' pitches or getting a walk, is great for an offense.  But so is the base hit that scores the runner from 2nd.

If we had scored as many runs as the Angels last year, we would have won the division.

Are walks now overrated?  This winter Billy Beane added a high BA guy in Jason Kendall (and perhaps Charles Thomas).  I wouldn't be surprised if the A's front office is able to "reweight" OBP, giving more credit for OBP that comes from BA rather than from walks.

by ervance on Mar 23, 2005 10:00 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

there is a reason for that - luck
There are stats you can design that predict that amount of runs you would expect to score given a certain number of hits, walks, HRs, etc.

The A's were below there expected RS total, the Angels were above.  That is, to a large extent, luck.

by dude on Mar 23, 2005 10:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's another reason.
$$$

The nine-player hitting lineup the Angels fielded last year cost (according to Hardball Dollars) $59.85M, a number close to the A's entire 25-man payroll.

By contrast, the 9-man lineup the A's had last year cost them $31.55M, which includes Jermaine Dye's wasted eleven mil. So yes, $60M does buy you more baseball player than $31M, even as wisely as the A's spend.
"[Your blog is] pretty funny. Although I kinda wanna slap Charlie in the mouth. But I guess that's the point if you're an A's fan :-)" Blez

by Nate on Mar 23, 2005 11:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We can't have high OBP guys like
Hatteberg and Durazo take walks when they need to drive in runs.  I think both were in the 80+ RBI range, but when one of those guys walks, that left Miller, Crosby, or Scutaro to drive them in.

A walk is great...but RBI guys need to drive in runs when ducks are on the pond.

Can we get Astropitch to sell "Free Dan Johnson" T-Shirts?

by carp on Mar 23, 2005 11:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
Garrett Anderson is right, hits drive in more runs than walks.

Walks are very valuable for a million reasons: table setting, tiring out pitchers, increasing odds, looks at more pitches, etc.

But a Carp says, Chavez, Byrnes and Durazo need to drive in runs.

By the way, good plate discipline doesn't mean just waiting for a walk; it's waiting for the right pitch to hit. Yes, swinging at a bad pitch (or a tough pitch) is more likely to lead to a groundout than a hit.

by Eck on Mar 24, 2005 8:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Getting a hit isn't a given
Walks, on their own, are very good things.  Patience at the plate, which leads to swinging at hitters' pitches or getting a walk, is great for an offense.  But so is the base hit that scores the runner from 2nd.

You speak as if getting a hit is just a matter of choice. Well, 6 out 10 times that ball put in play is going to be an out. And that's if a good hitter is at the plate. The odds aren't on your side if you're free-swinging.

by OaktownTribesman on Mar 23, 2005 12:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but you can't just take a walk at will
striking out looking is one of the most painful things in baseball.

remember a certain T Long performance anyone?

by rickeytime on Mar 23, 2005 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great Points Ervance
Sure, dude, luck plays a part in it, but Garrett Anderson is right, you drive in more runs with hits than walks.

by Eck on Mar 24, 2005 8:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The real test for Scoscia
is whether he lets his pitchers walk the ballpark.  I'd be real impressed if Scoscia explains pulling a starter at some point this season because of his wildness and walks, and some beat reporter asks him why walks help the Angels' opponents score runs but don't help the Angels.

by Nick on Mar 23, 2005 10:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Correct
Having a plan and sticking to it works.  Bouncing around between theories from week to week can't work.
MJB

by MJB on Mar 23, 2005 11:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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